If Anyone's Interested

[The Masked Tulip]

Interesting thread. To the technicians among you – any opinions on Charles Nenner?

The last time I read any article about him - mid 2009 I think - IIRC he was very bearish on equities. In fact, he was one of the experts quoted online who reinforced my opinion to stay out of the market in 2009. Perhaps he just wanted me out so he could buy the shares himself???

There are quite a few articles from June to August 2009 that you can find online if you google his name and 2009 such as this one:

http://www.bearishnews.com/post/1675

Their current predictions.

Charles Nenner believes we have topped out and will be retesting lows. Prechter prognosticates a market top in August, beginning the next wave down of this bear market that he believes will cause the S&P to end up below 400. Janjuah predicts a sharp move down starting late August, possibly culminating in an S&P under 600.

Called the massive equities decline in 2008? Check.

Called the bear bounce in spring-summer 2009? Check.

Calling for another massive move down this fall? Check.

But we did not have that massive low in the Autumn did we? Not close. So when I read the below text from the link you provided what should I think after his 2009 predictions?

Nenner sees multiple peaks developing in a number of equity indexes coming at the end of January. He is still long the S&P 500, which could run as high as 1,480 in a best case scenario. He will sell his position if the SPX trades below 1248, or by January 25, whatever happens first. Germany and the US will be the equity markets of choice during 2011, while emerging markets are to be avoided.

[scepticus]

I'm not sure you can equate time for value.

The time itself should be intrinsically worthwhile. To consider it as a chore that is required to expend valuable life in exchange for money is to devalue that life and be a sin in the eyes of God.

ok, you lost me there

[scepticus]

Although I’m not sure about his and other cycle analysts, my own research is gradually taking me further away from fundamental analysis and closer to a technical, political and perhaps cycle viewpoint – as I see it impossible to fairly assess today’s interventionist economy from a simple valuation viewpoint and have faith in longer-term common sense themes playing out.

isn't that a rather over-subscribed position?

is the notion that only short term speculation is a workable strategy somewhat overbought so to speak?

[The Masked Tulip]

Baltic Dry bubbling under in the commentary stakes pop pickers....

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/01/comment-on-baltic-dry-index.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+CalculatedRisk+%28Calculated+Risk%29

As I posted about a week or so back - a friend just got back from Hong Kong where she stayed with an uncle who is big in shipping out there.

He and his wife told her that he had never known so little work and so many ships laid up - not even during the 2008/09 crunch.

[scepticus]

is it something I said?

err, still in the dark at my end old chap!

[edit - don't go all ParticleMan on me...]

Edited January 10, 2011 by scepticus

[pl1]

English clearly not Neners first language. Nener is claiming to predict the market to within one day?

Here is Neners prediction on Feb 2009. He predicted a major rally was imminent within the next week, but he was a month out for the low and claimed it would turn again on March 9th if I listened right. It certainly did turn but not down:

http://www.cnbc.com/...20388644&play=1 (worth watching for the weird "what you looking at?" at about 30 secs in)

I would have been very impressed if he had said "the biggest bull market in decades is less than a month away".

He can't even blame the resolution level on his "cycle" for his above prediction.

[The Masked Tulip]

'(Richard) Russell, who served in WWII as a foot soldier in the European theater, sees trouble brewing in almost any parts of the world, and is also concerned that the U.S. debt load is no longer serviceable.

“This year might even be a black swan year,” Russell writes. “Certain events are now in place, events that have never been seen before in human history … we are dealing with debts so monstrous, so huge, that most people can’t fathom them..."

...“There is a huge disparity between the wealthy and the poor. The poor greatly outnumber the wealthy. This has all the ingredients for revolutions in the age of instant and world-wide communication.”

The makings of a “black swan” event are in place for 2011, he concludes.'

http://www.beaconequity.com/predictions-2011-jim-rogers-marc-faber-and-richard-russell-agree-2011-01-11/#ixzz1AkVImZaZ

[Crash Buyer]

My own work was originally calling for a peak between August 27, 2010 and September 3, 2010 but that was before I really discovered cycles and had learnt about one of the most powerful cycles - the 4-year cycle. After the 4-year cycle made it's low back in the summer of last year I realised there would be a higher peak further out because the cumulative advance-decline line had made new highs and the decline would create a roughly equal advance since we were still in a cyclical bull market. Classical Dow Theory still hadn't given a primary trend change (or sell) either.

When I saw Nenner saying that we would peak by August 2010 after we had made those lows then I was confident he was wrong, since there's usually a divergence between the two at a peak (in 1987 the cumulative A/D wasn't making new highs although stocks were which is how a few people saw it coming). In early August 2010 the cumulative A/D line broke the April highs which to me meant we would definitely get back to the April highs in price.

Here's what he said

Since I've got into using cycles my accuracy has got better - you can kind of know where a cycle low is going to come and when a 4-year cycle low can be expected. If you have a projection for a peak that's also a cycle low then something is obviously wrong - with the current market action there appears to be at least 2 cycles still in play which are keeping the market up, despite the extreme sentiment measures.

I'm partly short since the 5th (FTSE 6086) and am hoping we get a pop to new highs later in the week to add the rest - there's a Bradley turn date on January 16 (Sunday) so if the sentiment measures stay extreme then there's a chance the turn comes then giving a correction a bit like the one we saw in January/February 2010.

My own gut feeling is also that the 5 Jan top will be surpassed to draw in more 'dumb money' before the correction begins. Particularly as the general consensus amongst experts was that a correction was imminent following the Santa rally (so why not exploit the consensus - you know who).

Reporting season (from Bespoke)

[okaycuckoo]

err, still in the dark at my end old chap!

[edit - don't go all ParticleMan on me...]

I thought you were Particle Man!

Apart from that, lots of astrology being handed down on this thread lately.

ps. this will definitely be the severest winter for ... a while.

[The Masked Tulip]

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/114-times-more-insider-selling-buying-first-week-2011

After insiders closed off 2010 with just 19x more selling than buying, they have greeted 2011 with a ratio of selling to buying of 114x, a decent pick up in dumping. Specifically there were 4 purchases in the first week of 2011 in S&P 500 names, for a total of $2.5 million in notional. This was offset by $290 million in sales, in 86 transactions. The only notable purchase in the last week was in ATI, which has continued to see insider buying for the past month. The selling side is far more interesting, and here we can see ongoing dumping of Google, MCK, Qualcomm, Ford, HP, Carnival, CSX, and so forth. Luckily for the PDs and the Fed, the retail hot grenade lemmings are finally stepping in, because it was unclear how much longer the HFTs could keep the market from crashing again.

[The Masked Tulip]

The Bubble is Back, And Everyone's A Bull

http://www.businessinsider.com/the-bubble-is-back-and-everybodys-a-bull-2011-1

While the stock market could have a substantial decline and soon, we believe the greatest real risks to investors are in Washington, the bond market and the Dollar.

[R K]

That's not a log scale chart - ignore it.

[Crash Buyer]

Well here's my attempt to hone in on what I think is the 5th wave, which is just another smaller fractal of the current 5-wave structure. If wave (v) is equal to wave (i) then we've maybe got 4 more days to make that pop higher and hit the all important 1300 level on the S&P - I'm showing the Dow here, because the wave structure seems better plus I'm using a 60-minute chart.

I've only recently started looking at EW myself, but not really utilised it properly yet.

Also, the article I posted a few days ago from Quantifiable Edges would reinforce your forecast (historic data suggests no upside edge to mid/late Jan).

[R K]

Well here's my attempt to hone in on what I think is the 5th wave, which is just another smaller fractal of the current 5-wave structure. If wave (v) is equal to wave (i) then we've maybe got 4 more days to make that pop higher and hit the all important 1300 level on the S&P - I'm showing the Dow here, because the wave structure seems better plus I'm using a 60-minute chart.

Keep an eye on VIX options expiry next Weds 19th.

It's going to get interesting when we have these individual equity VIX options! Especially on the big financials like Citi which take the bulk of options trades already.

Oh what a web they weave................

[R K]

Today I think you are right.

Just a little anecdote for people.

I invested a large portion of funds in LUK2 at the very end of November. My plan was just to hold on and hold on regardless of what the extreme levels of sentiment said and wait and wait for the market to finally correct and to take a little loss on the down side of the curve - all the while knowing where we are in terms of overbought conditions and extreme levels of sentiment.

However, the night before last I had an atrocious night's sleep and during the course of the day I felt increasingly weary and agitated and my mind finally cracked and said 'oh just sell up - you've had a good gain' - so I did and sold up at 6030.

This sort of mental effect is not dissimilar to trying to give up smoking - you can be good for weeks and weeks but it only takes a moment's weakness and before you know it you're puffing on a fag (I eventually managed to finally give up smoking about 12 years ago now).

I had a great night's sleep last night and am regretting my actions of the day before. The market is acting bullish, it is up versus my exit and we are coming into earnings season where results should be very good (although expectations are very high).

Now - should I just simply reverse the actions of the day before and pretend it never happened? But would I normally invest here. No I wouldn't - I would just be trying to reverse the 'mistakes' of yesterday. (note it is only a mistake in the sense I changed my strategy, not necessarily that I will do better or worse).

So p*ssed off with myself today.

This goes to show that a strong mind is required for this game. Little alcohol, lots of sleep, healthy body leads to better moods and better, less erratic decisions.I have a tendency to drink too much too and am cutting down during the week. I think this is a much ignored but important area of trading. How mood affects your decisions.

You said that out loud.

[Crash Buyer]

Today I think you are right.

Just a little anecdote for people.

I invested a large portion of funds in LUK2 at the very end of November. My plan was just to hold on and hold on regardless of what the extreme levels of sentiment said and wait and wait for the market to finally correct and to take a little loss on the down side of the curve - all the while knowing where we are in terms of overbought conditions and extreme levels of sentiment.

However, the night before last I had an atrocious night's sleep and during the course of the day I felt increasingly weary and agitated and my mind finally cracked and said 'oh just sell up - you've had a good gain' - so I did and sold up at 6030.

This sort of mental effect is not dissimilar to trying to give up smoking - you can be good for weeks and weeks but it only takes a moment's weakness and before you know it you're puffing on a fag (I eventually managed to finally give up smoking about 12 years ago now).

I had a great night's sleep last night and am regretting my actions of the day before. The market is acting bullish, it is up versus my exit and we are coming into earnings season where results should be very good (although expectations are very high).

Now - should I just simply reverse the actions of the day before and pretend it never happened? But would I normally invest here. No I wouldn't - I would just be trying to reverse the 'mistakes' of yesterday. (note it is only a mistake in the sense I changed my strategy, not necessarily that I will do better or worse).

So p*ssed off with myself today.

This goes to show that a strong mind is required for this game. Little alcohol, lots of sleep, healthy body leads to better moods and better, less erratic decisions.I have a tendency to drink too much too and am cutting down during the week. I think this is a much ignored but important area of trading. How mood affects your decisions.

I couldn't agree more - the 'internal battle'. Its interesting how many successful traders say they sleep at 9pm, wake at 5am and exercise for an hour, no alcohol or smoking etc. I suppose a bit of yoga would help too!

I noted in a previous post you only speculate tax efficiently - this goes for LUK2 as well?

[R K]

Yes it is a bit 'stream of consciousness'. Am I embarrassing myself - or even you? Is it 'not normal' and therefore should I really keep it to myself.

I think the other thing is being honest with oneself and trying to recognise and admit one's mistakes. Hubris and denial is for Bubb - not me.

This is my confessional and you are my priest.

This is turning into an episode of Peep Show.

Baggsy you're the fat one.

(Can we not do priests and confessionals - I'm Christian Brothers' educated)

EDIT: However I would suggest that this could be down to timing. For a doom event, it is possible to see it - but not so easy to say when it will come to pass.

True. I'm confident I'm going to die. But the 'when' vexes me from time to time. Come to think of it, I'm not overly enamoured with the 'how' either.

Edited January 12, 2011 by Red Karma

[AvidFan]

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232/?video=1735227659&play=1

Investec currency person. Underweight dollar, likes sterling...

[okaycuckoo]

However, the night before last I had an atrocious night's sleep and during the course of the day I felt increasingly weary and agitated and my mind finally cracked and said 'oh just sell up - you've had a good gain' - so I did and sold up at 6030.

This sort of mental effect is not dissimilar to trying to give up smoking - you can be good for weeks and weeks but it only takes a moment's weakness and before you know it you're puffing on a fag (I eventually managed to finally give up smoking about 12 years ago now).

I had a great night's sleep last night and am regretting my actions of the day before. The market is acting bullish, it is up versus my exit and we are coming into earnings season where results should be very good (although expectations are very high).

Maybe you needed to sell to get a good night's sleep. Price worth paying.

[Number79]

Yes it is a bit 'stream of consciousness'. Am I embarrassing myself - or even you? Is it 'not normal' and therefore should I really keep it to myself.

I think the other thing is being honest with oneself and trying to recognise and admit one's mistakes. Hubris and denial is for Bubb - not me.

I dont really see why it is such a mistake to protect gains.

When you said "But would I normally invest here. No I wouldn't " it made me consider that if it was not a point at which to invest then it may well be a good point to exit.

Being greedy and not knowing when to close a trade is what normally catches me out (that and setting stops too tight). I shall try asking myself when I am in the money "would I open another trade at this level" and if the answer is "no way" then that could be a sensible exit point.

[R K]

One for Catflap (breadth indicators excluding closed-end funds - subs only)

http://blogs.stockcharts.com/chartwatchers/2011/01/nyse-common-stock-only-indicators.html

[AvidFan]

Did anyone post this previously?

From: http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2011/01/02/business/20110102-metrics-graphic.html

Stay long?

Edited January 12, 2011 by AvidFan

[R K]

Just thought I'd run through some of my old charts. Had a quick look at NYHGH to see whether it was spiking and it is...

but the intriguing thing is when I looked at nylow...this is spiking too which is one of the features at a bottom but not exclusively so...

Does this signal increasing disagreement within the index and could this mean that another Hindenburg Omen signal is being given? We'll see tomorrow...and The High Low Logic index.

Try it on a daily rather than weekly. The scale looks a bit off on that wkly chart.

Could be moving that way again though yep - It also happens during mid cycle buying dips, so it could be signalling either an imminent continuation breakout/up or else a 'top'.

My thinking still is a top would be earliest mid next week, more likely a bit later.

[The Masked Tulip]

Might be of interest... in the shoe-shine boy kind of way...

On Monday, when the Dow was up about 127 points during the stock market's first trading session of the year, a co-owner of one of New York City's Italian restaurants got a call from his stockbroker. "You gotta get in," the restaurateur was told. "The worst is over; this market could go the moon."

Even the media is caught up in this moon-bound euphoria, with one commentator on Bloomberg TV recently declaring "we're off to the races." Another commentator from the Fox Business Network took it one step further, asserting that "anyone who stays on the sidelines is a fool."

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/dan-dorfman/the-crash-of-2011_b_804957.html

[R K]

Just updated an spx chart with Market Club's latest vid.

http://broadcast.ino...ucation/fxf112/

Added the 5% 50 MA channel and Williams %R. He recommeneds 'Donchian Channels' but I cant' see that on stockcharts.

PPO shows the % variance from the 50 day ma too (hat tip Adam Hamilton and rk).

Would be nice to see the spx pop it's little head above the channel before falling back.

/anally retentive on

You have to be a little careful here too - Stockcharts default for the calc. of PPO is to use the exponential MA, not the Simple MA (I've not a way to change that). So for instance the PPO under the chart doesn't correspond to the price/ma on the main chart itself. It can make quite a difference to the % variance on the PPO 'cause the EMA is 'faster' i.e. it weights the latest periods in the average, whereas the SMA weights all periods equally. I've noticed there are 2 moving average channel overlays on stockcharts - MA Envelopes (ENV) and EMA Envelopes (EMAENV).

/anally retentive off

http://stockcharts.c...g_average_envel

Edit: Also, whilst I'm being ********, I've noticed that if you use the CCI (Commodity Channel Index) as the oscillator you seem to get nice (bullish) divergences at Pandora Cycle Lows (PCLs ).

Edit 2: What Adam actually seems to be doing in that video is fading failed breakouts when his daily indictor (lower or higher 3 day low/high?) trips. The Donchain channels are simply the highest high and lowest low of the previous n periods (in this case days). So they're showing upside/downside breakouts over the n period (I'm sure Cannedfish will correct me if I've interpreted that wrong).

Edited January 13, 2011 by Red Karma