billybong Posted April 10, 2015 Share Posted April 10, 2015 http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.co.uk/2015/04/france-vs-sydney-australia-property.html Some France/Australia comparisons. The differences are staggering considering how the French aren't supposed to know much. At least the UK is near Australian house price levels because the UK knows how to run an economy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattyboy1973 Posted April 11, 2015 Share Posted April 11, 2015 It's been over 5 years now since I was living in Sydney, but I know some of those areas listed in Mish's blog - and the prices are insane. Like a lot of people, I thought the market was desperately overpriced in 2009, and it looks like Sydney has nearly doubled since then. This one is going to be epic when it goes. It's interesting to note just how Sydney/Melbourne centric things are down there - more so even than London here. I was living in QLD for the last 4 years I was down there and things were very different, and as far as I know haven't yet "recovered" at all in the way that Sydney has. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Masked Tulip Posted April 11, 2015 Share Posted April 11, 2015 Looks like the copper and iron prices will put a lot more workers in Ozzie mines out of work this year. Rio Tinto and BHP seem to be doing what Saudi is doing with oil - maintaining market share as the price of the ore drops and hence putting other miners out of business. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest_northshore_* Posted April 16, 2015 Share Posted April 16, 2015 It's been over 5 years now since I was living in Sydney, but I know some of those areas listed in Mish's blog - and the prices are insane. Like a lot of people, I thought the market was desperately overpriced in 2009, and it looks like Sydney has nearly doubled since then. This one is going to be epic when it goes... ...So there are two blindingly obvious things to do in tax policy in Australia. One is to get rid or or gradually scale back negative gearing. The other is to try to bring capital gains and income tax closer together... And what is this budget doing about this? Nothing. https://nemoincognito.wordpress.com/2014/05/07/the-australian-budget/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wherebee Posted April 16, 2015 Share Posted April 16, 2015 If I was a pollie in Australia, I wouldn't mess with negative gearing in my term either. What I WOULD do is put a future tail in place. Say, no change to NG for 5 years, 5-10 years NG only on new build properties for the first 10 years of their post-construction life, 11+years, no negative gearing. Pushes the problem on the other party/your successors, looks economically wise, and if future governments unwind and it all blows up, you will be the man that history says did the right thing... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wherebee Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 OOh lookie http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/shadow-treasurer-chris-bowen-flags-labor-intention-to-wind-back-negative-gearing-20150422-1mqpu7.html I'll be a dutchmans uncle if they do it, but interesting they are actually talking about it... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattyboy1973 Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 Interesting - good to see it getting some airtime at least. Grandfathering in existing recipients is kind of pulling up the drawbridge for those behind, of course, and could perhaps lead to a mini-boom before the election of people trying to get in before it goes (like MIRAS here in the 80's). If they do it then it should really take some heat out of the market, which is due a crash anyway. One possibility is that they do it, the market crashes (may of anyway?) then the -ve gearing change takes the blame and they reverse it (this is what happened last time, but subsequent analysis showed -ve gearing probably wasn't to blame for a pike in rental prices). However it pans out down there, it's going to be interesting to watch. Sydney is off the scale now, and regardless of the final trigger (plenty to choose from - Chinese buyers pulling out, resources crash/recession, sheer unaffordability) I think the crash will be epic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Venger Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 OOh lookie http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/shadow-treasurer-chris-bowen-flags-labor-intention-to-wind-back-negative-gearing-20150422-1mqpu7.html I'll be a dutchmans uncle if they do it, but interesting they are actually talking about it... Talking about it, with few details released, is often enough to move markets. Love the tenant renter-saver; the 'rules' of the game are not fixed, and can be changed for new rules. Their principles suck though (protect this and that.. oh they are the market)... landlords are the supply of new housing are they? Maybe more housing would be built if developers/builders could afford plots and younger people afford to buy without being outbid by investorz. It is one of several prickly policy options being forced on both the government and the opposition as they look for ways to fund new promises while repairing a budget stricken with falling revenue and burgeoning fixed outlays on health, education, and social security. As I have confessed before, I use negative gearing. It is a truly odious piece of legislation but skews the playing field so badly in favour of the investor that anyone not using it is mad. Its on a family home that will - in years to come - be where we live long long term. In the meantime, lots of the repairs/improvements I have done for the tenants are tax deductible. many of the costs of buying were deductible (surveys, electrician checks, ect). The mortgage interest is tax deductible off ALL OTHER INCOME I WOULD PAY TAX ON IN OZ!! I can claim back one flight a year to Australia to inspect the property. It is truly crazy. In about 2-3 years, I might have a new kitchen, cooker, etc etc all put in for the tenants. They'll be good enough quality for us to use when we go back. And effectively it's all at around 40% off due to the tax laws. Crazy. And before you all shout at me - hate the game, not the player following the rules, especially when they are the only rules in town. I would vote for the first party to propose abolishing it on all but new properties. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattyboy1973 Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 Also note that Stevens (Aus bank governor) used the word "exuberant" to describe the Sydney market earlier this week. Moderately strong language for someone in his position.. http://www.whocrashedtheeconomy.com.au/blog/2015/04/exuberant-sydney-housing-market-disparate-of-real-economy-glenn-stevens/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattyboy1973 Posted April 24, 2015 Share Posted April 24, 2015 (edited) http://news.domain.com.au/domain/real-estate-news/changes-to-negative-gearing-would-hit-the-pockets-of-average-working-australians-20150423-1mrtl3.html pretty desperate article - just think of the teachers and childcare workers! The really astonishing thing is that, according to this piece, 1.2M Australians currently use negative gearing, out of a working population of 11M (OK, you could potentially use -ve gearing against a non-employment income, but I suspect that is a small minority). Over 10% of the working population of Australia "own" cash flow negative investment properties. Astounding! edit: furthermore "A report from ACOSS said that of the 1.2 million people claiming negative gearing deductions, more than half are in the top 10 per cent of personal taxpayers, with 30 per cent earning over $300,000." that would imply that approximately half of the entire top 10% of earners are claiming negative gearing deductions (which doesn't necessarily mean that the other half don't have investment properties). I've mentioned it before on this thread, but my experience down under was that BTL is on a different level there - and we could see similar here before long if things carry on as they are. Of the people I knew, owning an investment property was far more likely than owning your own home. Edited April 24, 2015 by mattyboy1973 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkWeston Posted April 24, 2015 Share Posted April 24, 2015 So the non-indebted taxpayer is paying for their investment, and paying for the ponzi scheme. Can't believe the UK hasn't got onto this already. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattyboy1973 Posted April 24, 2015 Share Posted April 24, 2015 So the non-indebted taxpayer is paying for their investment, and paying for the ponzi scheme. Can't believe the UK hasn't got onto this already. Correct. Tony Abbott ruled out any change last week, saying the didn't want to "raise taxes". What he didn't mention was that removing NG would/could effectively result in a tax cut for the 90% of earners that don't benefit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
interestrateripoff Posted April 28, 2015 Share Posted April 28, 2015 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-27/sydney-home-prices-surging-at-5-times-wages-add-to-bubble-woes Don’t count on a wage increase putting that Sydney home within reach. Home prices in Australia’s biggest city have surged more than five times faster than wages in each of the past two years, adding to fears of a housing bubble. Wages in New South Wales state, where 60 percent of the population resides in Sydney, climbed 2.5 percent in 2013 and 2.4 percent in 2014, compared to gains of 12.4 percent and 14.5 percent respectively for homes in the nation’s most populous city and financial hub, according to government and CoreLogic Inc. data compiled by Bloomberg. Sydney house and apartment prices have soared 40 percent from their May 2012 trough to a record, forcing regulators to call on banks to strengthen lending standards and warn of the potential for values to drop. That comes as wages growth slows to the lowest on record, rental yields approach an all-time low in Sydney and Moody’s Investors Service saying housing affordability in the city has deteriorated. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wherebee Posted May 2, 2015 Share Posted May 2, 2015 I stand corrected well done if they mean this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkWeston Posted May 2, 2015 Share Posted May 2, 2015 (edited) I stand corrected well done if they mean this. "When the $5000 application fee was flagged in February it was slammed by industry bodies for being too high and potentially deterring foreign investment in Australia. Simon Henry, co-chief executive of the Chinese language website Juwai.com where many offshore buyers look to buy Australian property, said: "There is no other country that charges fees to foreign investors that is actually seeking foreign investment." CBRE executive director of residential Justin Brown said the higher fees would have a negative impact on Australia, in particular on the construction of new dwellings. What a load of VI BS. He would have us believe that lack of foreign "investment" means fewer new building, which will somehow be bad for Australians. But the facts are right there in his face that despite this foreign "investment" properties have just got further out of reach of regular citizens. I'll take the opposite please, lower foreign "investment" and more affordable homes for us regular people. EDIT: I'm only commenting on the VI part of the article, the rest might be good news. Edited May 2, 2015 by MarkWeston Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billybong Posted May 2, 2015 Share Posted May 2, 2015 (edited) Seeing as the Australian house price market seems to have continued up since the original post in 2009 maybe its demons will have to try again. https:// www.google.co.uk/search?q=demon+images&tbm=isch&tbo=u&source=univ&sa=X&ei=DL5EVcT_OcvSaKfHgYgO&ved=0CCEQsAQ&biw=1366&bih=634 Edited May 2, 2015 by billybong Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kurt Barlow Posted May 3, 2015 Share Posted May 3, 2015 Seeing as the Australian house price market seems to have continued up since the original post in 2009 maybe its demons will have to try again. In Perth I'm waiting to see when prices start falling. Rents are falling rapidly as the quiet exodus out of the state takes place. There is still brisk activity with the Chinese buying off plan units which no one else wants to buy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
interestrateripoff Posted May 5, 2015 Share Posted May 5, 2015 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-05/australia-cuts-key-rate-to-record-low-2-on-weak-growth-outlook Australia cut interest rates to a fresh record low and said there are signs of improving household spending, sending the currency and bond yields higher as markets bet policy makers won’t ease further. The central bank lowered the key rate to 2 percent from 2.25 percent Tuesday, as predicted by traders and economists. Governor Glenn Stevens said in an accompanying statement “the inflation outlook provided the opportunity for monetary policy to be eased further, so as to reinforce recent encouraging trends in household demand.” More global pump priming. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wherebee Posted May 17, 2015 Share Posted May 17, 2015 I got this in my inbox the other day; My Hong Kong location obviously means I am on some mailing list somewhere... IMPORTANT UPDATE Must read - Changes for Australia “Last chance to buy in Melbourne prior to new taxes for foreign buyers” The link sends an email to some bloke in Dubai and presumably he send you a brochure back.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest TheBlueCat Posted May 17, 2015 Share Posted May 17, 2015 Are we there yet? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heathen_soul Posted May 18, 2015 Share Posted May 18, 2015 My wife, son and I moved over here just a few months ago and everyone you speak to seems to be flipping properties (we live outside Melbourne in a country town). As soon as you mention you are renovating then people jump straight in and think you are intending to sell on and jump to the next property (I saw the same thing in London 2007). Only a few builders ive spoken to can see the bubble, everyone else is convinced that prices can only ever go up etc. Crazy. Im still happy we moved out here though regardless; everywhere is effed and at least where I live people grow their own food, make stuff, have strong social cohesion etc. I am looking for a decent news source over here (housing, financial and otherwise), so If anyone has some decent links please do reply. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wherebee Posted May 18, 2015 Share Posted May 18, 2015 My wife, son and I moved over here just a few months ago and everyone you speak to seems to be flipping properties (we live outside Melbourne in a country town). As soon as you mention you are renovating then people jump straight in and think you are intending to sell on and jump to the next property (I saw the same thing in London 2007). Only a few builders ive spoken to can see the bubble, everyone else is convinced that prices can only ever go up etc. Crazy. Im still happy we moved out here though regardless; everywhere is effed and at least where I live people grow their own food, make stuff, have strong social cohesion etc. I am looking for a decent news source over here (housing, financial and otherwise), so If anyone has some decent links please do reply. The Age/Sydney Property Herald etc are all good for seeing what the main stories are so you can then go find the truth on the net.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heathen_soul Posted May 18, 2015 Share Posted May 18, 2015 The Age/Sydney Property Herald etc are all good for seeing what the main stories are so you can then go find the truth on the net.... Thanks for your reply. Ive had a bit of a search around and only really found 'Independent Australia' and 'Financial Review'. My usual favourite of Zero Hedge doesnt cover much for Australia. Any recommendations for online sources? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Viceroy Posted May 18, 2015 Share Posted May 18, 2015 Thanks for your reply. Any recommendations for online sources? Try; http://www.whocrashedtheeconomy.com.au Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest_northshore_* Posted May 18, 2015 Share Posted May 18, 2015 (edited) http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/ (some is subscription only)http://www.afr.com/http://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/http://www.ratecity.com.au/http://www.crikey.com.au/(subscription) https://www.prosper.org.au/- has a Melbourne based radio show 'Renege Economists' which can be a bit right on, but generally liberal (georgist) based interviews of people like Fred Harrison, Michael Hudson if that's your thing: https://www.mixcloud.com/RenegadeEconomists/ If you like reading bearish property analysis: http://blog.australiaboomtobust.com/ Edited May 18, 2015 by northshore Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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