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Australia Faces Its Demons

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The Australian today:

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story...33-2702,00.html

Property Market In Freefall

THE West Australian property market is being decimated following the evaporation of the resources boom, with values of $1 million-plus properties plummeting 20 per cent and the equivalent of more than two years' supply of homes flooding real estate agencies.

In Geraldton, rents have slumped 8 per cent and in the state's northwest fibro shacks that had been fetching rents of $1000 a week are sitting vacant as formerly high-paid mining executives face widespread retrenchment.

Real Estate Institute of Western Australia deputy president David Airey said there had been just 85 sales in Perth's affluent western suburbs in the three months to December, down from 150 the previous quarter and 300 at the same time in 2007. "Properties ... purchased as recently as a year ago have been listed or sold below their original asking price," he said.

Mr Airey said house prices in the state were expected to fall further as the global financial crisis continued to unfold and mining companies retrenched staff.

Adviser Edge head of property research Louis Christopher said Perth house prices were expected to fall by between 8 per cent and 12 per cent this year.

"The cause of the falls at the moment is the decline in commodity prices, (the rise in) which is what actually caused the boom in the first place," he said.

According to the REIWA, much of the lower end of the market was holding ground, buoyed by a surge in people capitalising on cheaper homes and a tripling of the first-home buyers grant.

"Properties priced up to $400,000 in areas popular with first-home buyers have either been steady in price or fallen only very very marginally."

In Perth, house prices fell 4per cent in the December quarter, taking the yearly decline to 11 per cent.

The median price of a Perth house was $418,000, down from $473,000 at the peak of the West Australian housing boom in December 2007.

AND

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story...12-2702,00.html

<h1 class="section-heading">Budget 'buggered', recession looms</h1>

Siobhain Ryan | January 19, 2009

Article from: The Australian

AUSTRALIA will go into recession this year with a budget that's "buggered", forcing Canberra to choose between its infrastructure priorities and more populist middle-class welfare and industry bailouts.

<script type="text/javascript"> // Leading economic forecaster Access Economics warns in its quarterly Business Outlook, released today, that the nation's economic boom will "unwind scarily fast", halving corporate profits, costing more than 300,000 people their jobs and blowing out the current account deficit to more than $100 billion.

"Batten the hatches. This is not just a recession. This is the sharpest deceleration Australia's economy has ever seen," the report says.

Thanks to China's growth, Australia last year escaped the recessions that sent major economies such as the US and Britain into reverse.

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Up until the 2008 Olympics Ozzies have been able to deny the global conditions due to the Olympic development boom in China (A major cause of the Commods boom)

Post September '08, reality has bitten rather savagely.

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Currently in Melbourne, where apparently house prices may take a lull and then fly off again. Everybody still knows this and are confident because they are Australians who apparently are much clever'er than foreigners and their house price bubble was not a bubble but reflected true value of owners homes. I have given up even mooting that things may not stay rosy for long on account of being viciously attacked with sharp tongues and warped reasoning. The media overall here seems to be even more opaque than in it was in the UK a year or so ago with the odd story as reported in the Australian (which is read by about 7 people) and the vast majority reading the 'Sun' in Melbourne which makes the 'Singing pig' pundits look sophisticated.

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Currently in Melbourne, where apparently house prices may take a lull and then fly off again. Everybody still knows this and are confident because they are Australians who apparently are much clever'er than foreigners and their house price bubble was not a bubble but reflected true value of owners homes. I have given up even mooting that things may not stay rosy for long on account of being viciously attacked with sharp tongues and warped reasoning. The media overall here seems to be even more opaque than in it was in the UK a year or so ago with the odd story as reported in the Australian (which is read by about 7 people) and the vast majority reading the 'Sun' in Melbourne which makes the 'Singing pig' pundits look sophisticated.

My brother lives in Perth and there appears to be some sort iof weird Ozzie monoculture where everyone laughs and jokes about the plight of the US and UK and how Australia is unaffected by the crunch -this I understand is largely encouraged by the Press and TV ...

The entire place could well come unstuck quicker than Iceland given that the country has little or no manufacturing base and is reliant on commodities which no-one currently seems to want -but my brother keeps telling me Australia won`t be affected by the current global turmoil !

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nah , the biggest ponzi scheme of all time is superannuation

the housing bubble is just his sidekick

The entire place could well come unstuck quicker than Iceland given that the country has little or no manufacturing base and is reliant on commodities which no-one currently seems to want -but my brother keeps telling me Australia won`t be affected by the current global turmoil !

true , we have a limited manufacturing base these days but we did record a 3 billion trade surplus for either august or september

when was the last time the UK recorded a trade surplus in a month? i believe it was some time in 1997?

the best thing we have here is plenty of land , you could camp out whilst the shit hit the fan in a big way and not see another soul for months

Edited by Ruffneck

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... excuse me while I take a few minutes out to laugh my **** off.

Looks like Rudd's going to get the chance to honour his depositor's guarantee after all.

Someone remind me what comes next after a treasuries selloff again?

Remember, those RBA issues are being held at low yields due to scarcity...

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i live in perth , i can give you some rough figures

average median price is still around $395,000

drop has been around ~7-8% on average in the past year (official figures)

CBA overpriced at $25+? could be $5 within a year

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Currently in Melbourne, where apparently house prices may take a lull and then fly off again. Everybody still knows this and are confident because they are Australians who apparently are much clever'er than foreigners and their house price bubble was not a bubble but reflected true value of owners homes. I have given up even mooting that things may not stay rosy for long on account of being viciously attacked with sharp tongues and warped reasoning. The media overall here seems to be even more opaque than in it was in the UK a year or so ago with the odd story as reported in the Australian (which is read by about 7 people) and the vast majority reading the 'Sun' in Melbourne which makes the 'Singing pig' pundits look sophisticated.

Excellent. I'm looking at heading out to Melbourne within the next 4 years. It's going to take me at least a year to get out there and then I'll want to rent for a couple of years while I work out where the nice areas are (any suggestions welcome). So if they start to crash in a few months I'll be looking to buy somewhere around the bottom :)

What's the story in Melbourne at the moment? Has the market just stalled, or is it still rising?

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Guest skullingtonjoe
My brother lives in Perth and there appears to be some sort iof weird Ozzie monoculture where everyone laughs and jokes about the plight of the US and UK and how Australia is unaffected by the crunch -this I understand is largely encouraged by the Press and TV ...

The entire place could well come unstuck quicker than Iceland given that the country has little or no manufacturing base and is reliant on commodities which no-one currently seems to want -but my brother keeps telling me Australia won`t be affected by the current global turmoil !

What does Australia actually make? What are their exports? Is it all just resource-based?

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This is good news - i was planning to relocate to Sydney in 2010 and when we went to check it out, property prices seemed to be on a par with London. Hopefully by 2010 prices will have reached the bottom there too.

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Excellent. I'm looking at heading out to Melbourne within the next 4 years. It's going to take me at least a year to get out there and then I'll want to rent for a couple of years while I work out where the nice areas are (any suggestions welcome). So if they start to crash in a few months I'll be looking to buy somewhere around the bottom :)

What's the story in Melbourne at the moment? Has the market just stalled, or is it still rising?

I have friends in Melboune, and they say it's a tale of two cities at the moment. Inner suburbs (expensive) are declining, and outer suburbs (cheap) are increasing.

Aus also seems to have lots of variance by state. Perth is crashing from commodities bust, Sydney has been mostly flat or declining for 2 years now, but has a peculiar market due to land constraints. Some other areas are still rising. Seems to be a lot of fairly insular micro economies, rather than one big market? I have a hard time making sense of it.

AU$ 400,000 seems to be the cutoff, most areas above that are flat or falling, most below seem to be rising. Theres a lot of govt intervention in Aus though which presumably helps the cheaper stuff, grants for FTB's of up $30,000 (basically a deposit) etc.

A lot of Aussie property looks cheap to Brits with the exchange rates, but on an income multiple basis it's about the most expensive anywhere in the developed world.

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What does Australia actually make? What are their exports? Is it all just resource-based?

Doesn't matter, as long as someone wants the resources. Which is not currently the case, but that may change.

The biggest mystery of all is why Oz isn't the world centre for development and implementation of domestic and industrial solar energy. Instead, sunless Germany has that role.

"She'll be right mate" - not always the wisest approach. However the UK is surely in a much deeper hole that Oz, though I doubt they'll be unaffected. Brits might even stop buying so much of their gloupy cheaper wines that taste like blackcurrant soup.

Edited by gleeful_expat

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Currently in Melbourne, where apparently house prices may take a lull and then fly off again. Everybody still knows this and are confident because they are Australians who apparently are much clever'er than foreigners and their house price bubble was not a bubble but reflected true value of owners homes. I have given up even mooting that things may not stay rosy for long on account of being viciously attacked with sharp tongues and warped reasoning. The media overall here seems to be even more opaque than in it was in the UK a year or so ago with the odd story as reported in the Australian (which is read by about 7 people) and the vast majority reading the 'Sun' in Melbourne which makes the 'Singing pig' pundits look sophisticated.

My sister works in Sydney and has told me sentiment is very different to this. She says that reality is setting in that the CC is just starting to bite and people are getting nervous about losing their jobs, with some already having lost them who work in financial services. Sydney will fall harder than Perth imo because their housing bubble has even bigger than ours. Also, it sounds like there is a lot of personal debt out there.

Edited by Lander

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My brother lives in Perth and there appears to be some sort iof weird Ozzie monoculture where everyone laughs and jokes about the plight of the US and UK and how Australia is unaffected by the crunch -this I understand is largely encouraged by the Press and TV ...

The entire place could well come unstuck quicker than Iceland given that the country has little or no manufacturing base and is reliant on commodities which no-one currently seems to want -but my brother keeps telling me Australia won`t be affected by the current global turmoil !

I lived in Oz for 35 years and left a year ago. I have to say that the above is one of the things I just couldn't stand anymore about Oz... that absurd sort of Jingoistic "Oz is the best pace in the world" CRAP that gets thrust in your face every ten seconds.

When at one point Perth was the most expensive city in Oz, people's attitude was "yeah it deserves to be"! WTF? It's got a couple of beaches and a stinking river. Pretty, in a soulless sort of way, but completely cultureless and... yes, monoculture is a great word.

My only regret is not being there to rub this in their faces.

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I lived in Oz for 35 years and left a year ago. I have to say that the above is one of the things I just couldn't stand anymore about Oz... that absurd sort of Jingoistic "Oz is the best pace in the world" CRAP that gets thrust in your face every ten seconds.

When at one point Perth was the most expensive city in Oz, people's attitude was "yeah it deserves to be"! WTF? It's got a couple of beaches and a stinking river. Pretty, in a soulless sort of way, but completely cultureless and... yes, monoculture is a great word.

My only regret is not being there to rub this in their faces.

Whats your opinion on Sydney?

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Whats your opinion on Sydney?

Little America really. A great sprawling megalopolis, half the population of London yet covering four times the area. There are some nice spots by the harbour and if you have lots of money you can live a good, if relatively cultureless life there. If you're Mr average income, it's a shythole.

It really depends on what you want out of life. Some Brits really like Oz. If you like beaches, hot weather, BBQs and asinine, anti-intellectual conversation, it's great. If you like European style culture and social structure, you'll hate it.

I like Melbourne the best, but that's because it's the most "European" style city and that's what I like.

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I lived in Oz for 35 years and left a year ago. I have to say that the above is one of the things I just couldn't stand anymore about Oz... that absurd sort of Jingoistic "Oz is the best pace in the world" CRAP that gets thrust in your face every ten seconds.

When at one point Perth was the most expensive city in Oz, people's attitude was "yeah it deserves to be"! WTF? It's got a couple of beaches and a stinking river. Pretty, in a soulless sort of way, but completely cultureless and... yes, monoculture is a great word.

My only regret is not being there to rub this in their faces.

Absolutely agree. I know Perth really well too. I went 2 years ago, and noticed an increase in chavs, over-weight ozzies, graffitti and biker-gangs than before. Its not the paradise some people think it is.

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Little America really. A great sprawling megalopolis, half the population of London yet covering four times the area. There are some nice spots by the harbour and if you have lots of money you can live a good, if relatively cultureless life there. If you're Mr average income, it's a shythole.

It really depends on what you want out of life. Some Brits really like Oz. If you like beaches, hot weather, BBQs and asinine, anti-intellectual conversation, it's great. If you like European style culture and social structure, you'll hate it.

I like Melbourne the best, but that's because it's the most "European" style city and that's what I like.

Ok thanks, I think I'll hate it :lol:

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  • 284 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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