davidg

only if they like overweight, lager drinking trollops

Well I was extrapolating a bit but he claims in 'The Fall of Rome and the End of Civilization' that the European economy (GDP) took until the 15th century to recover from the fall of Rome - obviously the black death didn't help but even so it is pretty cataclysmic and probably why the fall of Rome is so important in our folk memory. If you think that roads and bridges in the UK and much of Europe were not upgraded until the 18th century you can understand the brake that the destruction of the Roman infrastructure had.

Bryan Ward-Perkins, an Oxford economic history professor has calculated that it took around a thousand years for house prices to regain their values before the 403AD house price crash.

I lived in Paris for a long time and for the same money you get no bathroom and a stand up crapper in the hall that you share with someone with dysentry... and that's the posh gaffs. Paris flats have hardly been modernized since the revolution which is probably why they cost a little less. Although with salaries less than half the levels of London it is one of the most expensive cities in the world. The rest of France has appauling new builds built of cardboard, no cavity walls, poorly heated and incredibly small rooms.

The problem is, if there is a 12% drop in asking prices you will find sentiment will have changed and a lot of FTBs will hold off at 125K (or not be able to raise the credit) waiting for prices to drop further. Yes house prices are sticky on the way down, at least before panic sets in and people understand the game has changed. At the moment people are still very much into the houses only ever go up 10-20% per year and will have a hard time adjusting to the new reality. Speaking as an investor, for a 600pcm rent I wouldn't pay over 90K, which is why I've not bought since 2001. There may be some convergence of rents and prices meaning 100K is realistic but deflation tends to take on a life of its own. Worst case those 2 bed terraces will be around 60K by 2012 in today's money. Remember that for me, living in Switzerland and hedged between the CHF, EUR and UKP, UK house prices have already dropped 10-12% over the last 12 months.... you need to stop thinking purely in UKP but in terms of what your currency is worth globally. I think there will be some unforseen events over the next 12-24 months that will completely change perceptions. Already the House Price bulls didn't see the credit crunch saying that only a hike in interest rates or a recession could trigger a HPC.

In general people only want to hire in work IT contractors so it is almost always better to be in work somewhere. Employers are a bit like birds, they find contractors that are already take and have had a good track record of partners much more attractive.

I think the prediction is that house prices will, at some point, revert to near or below a 3.5x earning multiple so you can make that prediction every day and if it comes to pass your prediction was proved correct. of course 3.5x isn't set in stone, the economic governing this figure can change just as the 20x PE ratio for shares can change for some sound economic reasons.

In 95-96 when I bought my first house for 49K in SE England they wanted 25% then took 8 weeks to decide whether to give me the loan - I was earning 55K / yr at the time... more than I earn now . I told the bank, who I'd been with for 20 years, that I was as safe as houses.... they didn't take that every well. I sold the house sold for 72.5k 18 months later to buy my current place. Hard to believe you could pick up a house for that kind of money just 12 years ago. The rub is that a lot of people won't be able to buy at the bottom without a substantial brick of cash.

Why are they the elite? Because they went to a posh school and made the right contacts and are good at socializing and glad-handing or because they are really some good? Take the head of Societe General, Daniel Bouton. He got to run SG, with his 3 million euro salary and 3 million annual bonus more because he knew Alain Juppe and Marc Viénot and went to the ENA administrative school rather than any particular competence. Even his friends say he is insufferably arrogant, spending his time slagging off his colleagues. The problem with these people is they sincerely believe they are a race apart who should not be governed by the same laws and mores as the "little people". Bouton's case illustrates that it is all hot air and that his bank is extremly poorly run and regulated.

How many bedrooms? I've seen a lot of what I would consider aspirational pricing in Darzett recently. You know, 2 beds up for 800-900 squids. Might be worth it on the Sandbanks peninsula (if you like having to buy a new car due to salt rust every couple of years) but not in Winton or... agghh Slades Farm!

Waterboarding, cool, sounds like fun, is it a bit like snowboarding on water? A new extreme sport?

Gasping for breath I would have said, think Glasgow chain smoker walking the 20 floors of his gorbals council flats coz the lift is broken.

Reshuffle with who exactly? NuLabour is hardly a talent pool.

Just to be clear we are relocating to CH, I have a property on the south coast but will rent in Switzerland. Why am I a bull... erm dunno pass. I'm not particuarly bearish. I was just amused that an EA had taken on a lot of the Bull language... but their job is to sell houses not keep them on the books for years. His main "bullish" statement was that there is an underlying demand for properties. EA no.2 is more postive but had the same message of a 10-15% loss of purchasing power since the spring which is not fully reflected in the prices.

Due to a move we are trying to sell our house. Just had the first agent around. He told us that nothing was moving at the moment (we know) because sellers had not adjusted to the "new reality". He said that whatever the indices said you would be lucky to achieve 2005 figures now, not impossible but difficult and not for the wrong house in the wrong place. The problem was quite simply that borrowers could not get the loans to buy at "aspirational" prices and that their purchasing power was "10 to 15% lower" than at this time last year and you "cannae break the laws of economics". The banks simply had to "start building good loan books" because of all the "subprime" they were still exposed to. For him "supply and demand are overplayed - people are by and large, currently living somewhere and would continue to muddle through in their current circumstances". The "upgrade to the executive show house had been cancelled". All stuff we already know but interesting to hear the EAs spouting this stuff. He went on that a 40% correction wouldn't amaze him over the coming years given salaries and the state of people's pension provisions and savings which would need "rebuilding".

Really? I always ask for at least a 5% discount on any capital purchases I make with my debit card - try that paying with Barclaycrap.

Yes but who's economy?

Seriously I'm surprised there is not a criminal investigation underway. I think it has been clear that NR has been run recklessly and has been insolvent since around August time (not September when it came to Darling's notice) and should have been left to go bust at the time.

That was the problem in 1994-5. Houses were cheap, I bought one in the S.E. for 49K, but fewer people had access to capital or credit to buy one. I expect some posters on this board will find it no easier to buy a house in 5 years time than today.

are you talking about the remains of the ruined concrete house near the Haven hotel? The house lasted until the first neap tide then collapsed. I guess they've improved building techniques since then.

If it is "just" grade II you are not allowed to go around fitting B&Q bathroom suites if there are any internal features of note. These places are a nightmare as you have council inspectors around all the time checking what you are doing or getting done and then getting you to do it again, only better and more authentic. I would never consider buying any listed property having dealt with a Grade II cottage.

Contract rates are probably more dynamic. I notice in 1999 you would have got around 34 quid/hr now 36 quid/hour but taxes for contractors have almost doubled since then thanks to IR35 etc. Plus in 1999 I could pick up a small house for under a 100K in many areas.

lots of negative comments on the website http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/programmes/andr...how/7080519.stm

aggh gawd he's on the Andres Marr show tomorrow morning whittering on about how he is going to spend the next 12 months making bad decisions. No doubt Andrew will give him a hard time (and hell will freeze over). The Guardian and BBC are like Pravda.

One of the papers, maybe the guardian, also reported that arrangement fees for mortgages had gone up a lot - so not only do they cherry pick the best borrowers but they have to pay a front end loading to get a mortgage. Surely this will hit people wanting to remortgage?