libspero

This all reminds me of a very prophetic post made by particleman back in the days when QE was first being rolled out.. it had to do with the cycle of boom - bust - protectionism - war. I hope this will not prove as prescient as HPCs previous predictions of an unprecedented “no one could have predicted it” financial crash. Linky

A lot of talk recently about us joining NAFTA.. has this been discussed much on here? http://www.canada.com/news/national/government+interested+joining+nafta+whatever+becomes+brexit/15107658/story.html Apart from a few issues surrounding things like aviation trade-wars and Trump threatening to undermine the concept entirely.. it actually sounds quite a good idea. It will be interesting to see whether the idea gains much traction.. especially since the EU doesn't seem very interested in taking Brexit negotiations seriously at the moment.

I thought it was to distance ourselves from the bureaucratic, protectionist, overly socialist EU.. or at least it was in my mind. I guess we all had our own take.

It sounded too good to be true.. so perhaps you're right. The way I read the article it sounded like an alternative route to trading with those nations without joining the single market and having to deal with the headaches and bureaucracy of the EU.

This article in Bloomberg today looks interesting as an option for retaining partial trade links to Europe after leaving the EU. What are the HPC views on this? Brexit Backers Urge May to Study Rejoining Europe Trade Body https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-07/brexit-backers-urge-may-to-examine-rejoining-european-trade-body

I'm not quite sure I see why this is a positive for people renting (other than I guess everyone pays their share of tax). If you are renting a cheap room in an HMO doesn't this mean your tax bill is about to shoot up? Surely the only time it affects the landlord is when rooms are vacant?

I think that is a pretty sensible view. Even after Brexit it would be nice to stay very good friends with our neighbours, to trade with them, go on holiday to see them.. to a limited extent even have (managed) cross migration policies and relatively free movement of people. In fact, it would be nice to have that relationship with most countries around the world. I think (and I'm speculating) that what most British people really voted "against" was Brussels having ultimate control over our sovereignty. We still welcome free trade with them and in most ways it is a common interest. Apparently Brussels are more concerned with "teaching us a lesson" which is sad but perhaps unavoidable. I'm not sure most people are even anti "globalisation", they just want to retain some element of control and self determination should they choose to. That was why immigration became such an issue in the campaign. UK: "We want a temporary brake on migration from Europe" Brussels: "Tough, you can't have one" UK: "Fine, screw you then" For the sake of the rest of Europe, Brussels should relax their principles "TEMPORARILY" to ease pressures where needed. If they had done this the UK would have voted "IN", none of this expensive separation would be necessary and we wouldn't be having this debate.

True, though (playing devil's advocate) there's nothing to stop us having a second referendum and changing our minds. Not that having endless referendums makes any kind of good political sense.

I presume a British one rather than a European one. I guess the main point is, in all likelihood people would still travel freely from the continent.. the difference is they wouldn't have an automatic right to remain.

Since this is now in "on topic" it seems note worthy that he was quoted on R4 yesterday as saying the problems in the housing market are all about "supply, supply and supply". in other words.. He seems to have recognised that throwing more debt and cheap money at the problem isn't the right solution.

That is interesting.. though I notice the mathematics of the intellectually righteous doesn't always stand up to scrutiny.. [from the article]

I doubt anyone would turn down a free second passport (why would you). The question is, are they prepared to move over there and work for 5(?) years in order to qualify? Most people already entitled to different dual citizenships never end up getting the second simply because it's too much of a faff.

Because it's very politically sensitive. Here is a leak from the Independent: http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/what-is-ttip-and-six-reasons-why-the-answer-should-scare-you-9779688.html Imagine the stink if we announced we had to privatise the NHS because Europe were signing a trade deal with the US. Much better to do it quietly on the side over the past few years while nobody's paying attention..

I'm sure many would if they had suitable skills and spoke a European language fluently. As it stands I doubt we'll see much movement.. of all the people I've ever known only two have moved to Europe. One is a ski instructor, the other generally seems to just bum about at his parents expense.

Another bargaining chip if the Germans play hardball.. We could always reopen the enquiry into the damage VW emissions cheating caused and impose massive fines to cover the cost of cleaning up our city centres and pay towards medical care.. you know that's what the US would do!

Completely agree.. The ideal (and if May really meant what she said in her speech the other day,the plan) is to aim for something more like the Canadian / Korean trade arrangement. The trade off is that we could be on WTO terms for a long time while the details are negotiated, where as a Norway style model is a "quick fix" on significantly worse terms. Europe would undoubtably be angling for the latter because that best suits them, the question is how much business would we hemorrhage in the interim period if we hold out for the former. It would probably be worth it.. but a painful exercise for a few years unless European industry really does light a fire up their leaders bums to push it through quickly..

Devaluation of the pound isn't a concern to them.. they already learned that the hard way. Inflation is, but at the moment everyone's opening the taps anticipating a global slowdown so they have some wriggle room.

I would say it's way too early to call that. I don't think anyone believes this won't be painful.. more a question of degree.

I'd say May is favourite now.. And I'd agree she's the best choice. If we are going to negotiate a new relationship it wouldn't hurt to start off with someone who hasn't already pi55ed off the people we'll be negotiating with. So a "remain" campaigner makes sense. After that we need someone who is warm but firm with good negotiating skills and a shed load of experience. I hate May's guts, but at this time she could be the (wo)man of the hour..

I dislike and distrust Theresa May immensely.. but it was quite a good speech.

Didn't we have an election like that recently and UKIP were left badly bruised?

Anecdotally two of my customers are already talking about moving their UK operations. One is an analytical instrument manufacturer, the other a distributor.

Back to the OPs very interesting topic.. The South Korea model looks very interesting. Would we lose our European financial passport still though? In the case of South Korea it is not entirely clear, but I presume we would: Obviously, whether the EU would cut us that deal is another matter.. especially with herr Junker's little personal vendetta against us.

Purely in the interests of being a pedant, we already have that between Northern and Southern Ireland.

I think there are a wide spectrum of views on immigration on both sides of the debate, it would be naive to believe otherwise. That said, whichever stance we take will probably be a safe one for any political leader. If we have a points based system it will be a bit of a hassle to administer, but I'm sure it will do the job. On the other hand if we go for open boarders we will probably still see enough of a drop in inward migration as a result of recent events to placate those most concerned. Personally I don't love the idea of a points based system.. if anything I would prefer just an annual cap to stop large surges. The question is at what cost. The only thing that we really need is the Euro passport for our financial services sector.. and that will be the first thing that is taken off the table.