shermanator

Yeah..... ......if you're a hairdresser called Shane

Really, old chap? Wishes like rising unemployment, rising bankruptcies,rising insolvencies, a debt mountain, high street recession, falling new car sales. No, not wishful thinking, just reality.

Or throw his toys out of the pram. Obviously a couple of VI sock puppets trying to ramp up a dying market.

What the UK and the US have at the moment is the worst of both worlds - rapidly rising inflation but NOT in wage inflation. This is dreadful for the individual citizen. They may well have to lower IRs to stimulate demand but that's just fine by me because it'll be the ultimate admission that we're in a recession. And 'Look to the past' if you think that lower IRs are going to prevent this ludicrous bubble deflating then you're going to be disappointed. I'm afraid to say you're in a lose-lose situation.

Too true! I may sound like a broken record on this matter but I believe we're in a recession NOW. Not next week, next month or next year but it's here NOW.

Well done, you've got the right idea. There'll be many dead cat bounces over the next few years, so don't wobble or panic. The crash has started and we're in a recession.

I feel heartened when I read the huge mass of verbage that bpw posted. If everything was rosy in the garden would all these people be spinning like mad? Bankruptcies up, insolvencies up, retail recession, unemployment up, asset bubbles everywhere. But hey, hang on a minute, it's different this time or it's a new 'paradigm'!!! I wobbled at the beginning of the year but I'm confident now. The trick to stay happy is to peruse this site periodically, otherwise you can't see the wood for the trees and the bigger picture is lost. Stand back and realise that in 18 months HPI has plummetted from over 20% to virtually nothing.

My thoughts exactly!

You're more or less right. I'll be gambling on the moronic sheep-like tendencies of the market. On this occasion I won't be looking to 'fundamentals'. Looking at a 2 month time frame. Didn't someone once say, "no one ever lost money underestimating the idiocy of the public".

So what you're admitting is, that the British economy (ie the consumer) is in a dire state? They may well lower interest to get the morons to buy yet more tat but that's surely invitation to the likes of George Soros to orchestrate a massive raid raid on sterling? No, for us HPCers it's heads we win tails we win, as reagrds interest rates.

Yeah, sure. Could be interesting.......

Oh, I wouldn't be too sure about that. I'm a property bear but an equities bull at the moment. Never underestimate the novelty factor of a stock. When normal trading begins next week I'll buy about 5k worth and look to make around 20% before dumping it (best not to be greedy). Party Gaming had a good initial run when it floated and I employed exactly the same strategy.

No, you're not a 'doofus'. I've said it before and I'll say it again. Falling interest rates and the clamour to lower rates are signs of an economy in trouble, not rude health. Just look at Japan!

Want a bet on that? No, thought not!

'Lord' Brocket? What a right charlie he was.

Just a feeling but I think 2006 will be a good year.

Dulwich - what a place. Sandwiched between CSI Brixton and Peckham (by day a mugger's paradise by night a mobile firing range).

I wonder if any of the big currency speculators like George Soros are taking up positions to hammer sterling? 1992, Norman Lamont; "it's been a difficult day" 2006, Gordon Brown; "boom not bust. Go on, take on bigger mortgages and spend more money. Everthing's fine".

I get the Kent Messenger every week and the number of job ads is way down, whereas the property supplement is growing. All I'm interested in are facts; Fact 1 - Unemployment in Kent is rising (particularly in the Medway and E. Kent) and has been doing so for a year. Fact 2 - According to the Land registry house prices in affluent West Kent fell last year. Fact 3 - the number of vacant shops across Kent is increasing. Fact 4 - New car sales in Kent are down Now, is this picture I paint a recession or a booming economy? Perhaps all these bulls who think everything's OK are living in a micro climate.

I was a buyer at next for a while and can pin point it to August 2004. But let's not split hairs, Charlie. I hope more correspondants are agreeing with my assertion that we're in a recession NOW?

Thanks Realist Bear. You're the first person I know who agrees with me when I say, "we're in a recession NOW". Not next month or next year, but it's HERE.

Am I the only one who thinks that all this 'home search' business is a load of nonsense? A bit like all these upmarket 'concierge' companies which have sprung up. Particularly if they're as worful as those two. I've got a bright idea, let's pay 180k over the odds for a house. The mistake was only found out by a complete fluke, if memory serves.

I've been to quite a few shopping centres around London and the S.E. since the new year and not only are very few people spending but the number of vacant shops is astonishing. Not that this retail recession has been noticed by greedy landlords, seemingly. I had a look at a shop today (potential turf accountants) and it's been vacant for 18 months. I asked the agents if he's had any offers; "oh yes, he's had two but the covenants were not good enough and we want 6 months rent in advance". This isn't prime retail, more like off-spec secondary!!!! So the landlord prefers an empty shop and no rent to getting someone in there. Truly remarkable. One store that's bucking the trend is Primark. In fact sometimes I see more of their bags than the rest combined. But apparantly everything's fine with the British economy. What a load of crap. Remember, this is just the beginning........

Well, this is very strange. What on earth are they spending it on? Because, they sure aren't spending it on new cars or in the high street!

Personally Dr.Bubb, I think you've called the top of housebuilders too early. Though house prices will continue to fall for another 4 or 5 years, I expect housebuilders to be one of the last things to go down. By the same token, when things pick up again (about 2012), they'll lag the market. The housebuilders have made great gains since October '05 and probablt still have further to go despite the looming HPC. Timing is everything and I've got no time for the 'stopped clocked' analysts.