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House Price Crash Forum


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About deano_54321

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  1. Fair enough, would still debate moving it at all but thats what you guys are there for. Its just that most people felt it was a good argument, which i think it still is. I would argue that paying rent over a 3 year period would seriously affect any kind of average persons' disposable income to plough into investments and to get enough returns to make such a difference. The fact is that house prices are still going up as fast or faster than most ordinary people can save. I would say that your comment is correct for those with a well above average income but not the average person!?
  2. Hi Ben, I wouldn't call Wolverhampton a "desireable" area, but thats where I'm buying! In all seriousness, I have actually had an offer accepted on a property. It was up for 104,000 and got it for 98,000. Its exactly the same house as my parents (just a few doors down) which is 'worth' 128,000. To get it in that state i will need to spend about 7,000 on the property so I think I have a good deal in the current climate. House prices still make me sick, but I hopefully wont lose out, even if there is a 20% crash from current house prices I should still be reasonably safe (equity-wise). Im not looking for a house to make profit on, just a home in a reasonably safe area to raise a family. Thats my no.1 priority. Dean
  3. Yes I agree, and this is of course dependant on area. However the math isnt (far) wrong, (see my other comment with detail). Yes, you would need them to drop 17%, but that is to be back at square one!! This is why I wish I'd bought in 2003, like yourself. But at the time I believed like many others on this site that by now (2006) prices would have maybe droped 20%, when they have gone up 20%!
  4. understood, however, I think you have missed my point and looking into too much detail of what I'm trying to say. To put it simply, A house in 2003 is worth 100,000 (house prices predicted to crash 30% to 70,000) The same house in 2006 is now worth 130,000 For this house to reduce to the price expected in 2003 (70,000) the house price would have to crash by 46.2%. Again, I ask the question, can people really see the property market crashing by 46.2%???? (3.8% away from my previos statement, but couldn't be ar*ed to work it out exactly, until now! sorry!) Thanks, Dean
  5. I asked the following question recently, and it got moved as though I was a troll (which I am not!), even though I am a long time poster and supporter of HPC.co.uk. Most reasonable people on here thought it was a good point (mostly 'bears' like myself) but it still got moved. I havent bothered looking at the site much recently as I felt harshly treated. So here goes, please reply with you honest thoughts. When I first started reading HPC.co.uk about 3 years ago, most 'Bear' Economists & posters expected about a 20 - 30% drop in house prices. Since then houses have actually RISEN by about that much. Therefore, should the 'expected' crash happen now, it would have to drop 20 - 30% to be where we started when HPC was born to be back at square one. Therefore, house prices need to drop about 50 - 60% now to justify what people have been saying since day one. Can anybody REALLY see this happening? Dean
  6. Thanks for all your support guys. This will be my last post for a while! It does concern me that the post has been moved. I was hoping that someone would prove me wrong but obviously not if moving the post was the only response. I do like this site but can see why people have been 'pushed away' from it. Surely people can se I'm not here to just 'rock the boat' after 18 months of posting with support to the HPC subject. Ah well, I will be back, but I'm a bit frustrated that what I think is a valid argument has been treated like a 'Troll' post when I'm certainly not! Good luck to everyone who is looking to buy their first homes and 'want a home for a home', I have spoken to many of you and its good to know that there are people out there in the same position as me going through the same worries. Those who have responded with sarcastic remarks please think before you do so - people come to this site for a realistic insight into what is happening and to give their opinion. Just because someone makes what you see as a negative comment dont just offend them or push them away, put your point forward instead, that is what I like about this site. I do still think a crash is possible. Maybe the Government dont have full control of the market as I first stated, but it must be one of their priorities not to let the Market crash as most of the country seem to have been fully dependant on the price of their home. Thanks again all, see you next year with hopefully some signs of the crash! Deano
  7. This will be my last post on this site for the next 10 or 12 months. I am just going to completely ignore the Housing Market (as much as I can) for the next year and save my a*se off. But I am going to have a little rant before I go (and hopefully make some good points and give a reality check)!! If I hear something on the news about a crash I will know the Sh*t has hit the fan and will be back on here like a flash. Ok, I'm sick of the bad news of House Prices constantly going up. This is meant to have been happening for years now, yet even now there are no better signs than there were 3 or 4 years ago. You can throw all the current stats at me as you like, but the stats four or five years ago pointed at a crash, but where is it? Im not having a go at the people who get the data. Most of it is very convincing and should point to a crash, but I believe there is one vital thing that throws all of the hard work done on this site into doubt, and this is it - THE GOVERNMENT WILL DO ANYTHING TO STOP A HPC. Im not going to buy within the next 12 months because I dont think houses will rise over that period due to interest rates, so I can hopefully save more than house prices will go up. I hope that when I come back on here next year all the arrow pointers are going down and the market is crashing and burning, but I am doubting it. I know I will get replies with the old "its not going to happen overnight" etc etc, but it SHOULD have happened by now. The famous HPC graph tells you that the market prices are doing something no they have never done before in the past and IS currently stagnating. I want house prices to crash as much as anyone else on this site, but do believe that we need a reality check. I leave with this comment, which I think is a very valid point and challenge an argumentative response - When I first started reading HPC.co.uk about 3 years ago, most 'Bear' Economists & posters expected about a 20 - 30% drop in house prices. Since then houses have actually RISEN by about that much. Therefore, should the 'expected' crash happen now, it would have to drop 20 - 30% to be where we started when HPC was born to be back at square one. Therefore, house prices need to drop about 50 - 60% now to justify what people have been saying since day one. Can anybody REALLY see this happening? Sorry to be so negative, but I really think that we need to discuss what is going wrong with our predictions, GOOD LUCK TO US ALL, SEE YOU IN 12 months! Deano
  8. I reckon just get all of the water out and fill it with concrete and build a small estate!
  9. I know that 1st time buyers aren't the only part of the equation, but there are far too may FTB's out there who are just getting the wrong advice, or to be less bias, only one side of the story. I have actually met one or two people who were not aware of all of the economical issues which are possibly going to cause a crash (one of which withdrew their offer on a house! ). Fair enough, there might not be a crash, but all I was doing was making them aware. I did point out that this should be THEIR decision and a HPC was really already expected to be under way by now, but not yet materialising, but they still pulled out. They are glad at the moment, as they also weren't aware of the pending interest rate rise(s). Please dont think that I am focsing on one point, but the more people who are aware the better IMO!!
  10. HI There! Ok, we are all sick of the media hype of house prices. Of course, "they only go up" don't they? Or so we are led to believe. I haev just done a quick check on the latest number of FTB's out there, the figure is about 320,000 people. There are currently just over 4000 members of this site, which is only just over 1.2% of FTB's. I understand that HPC is never going to be advertised on the middle of Emmerdale Farm or Coronation Street, but surely there is a way we can spread the word about HPC.co.uk? Imagine if we could get that figure up to even 10 or 15%? I know an internet site isnt going to cause a HPC, but it can only help people seeing something different from the constant media hype and being frightened into buying before house prices go up further? Does anyone have any thoughts on this? Dean
  11. I completely agree with your sentiments, but believe that unless FTB's become wise of the market instead of being scared into buying, they will keep buying! Im not sure if anybody could post figures on approximately how many potential UK FTB's are out there, but I think we are of a very small percentage who are aware a crash could happen - the rest are conned into beliving "house prices only go up". There should be MANY more members on this site. Most people have internet access now and I think if even 50% of FTB's saw this site they would not buy - at least for 12 months or so, which would be devastating to the market. Have there been any thoughts or posts to how we can promote HPC.co.uk? I really think we need to get the message out to FTB's what we could be in for over the next couple of years. Dean
  12. HI All, Does anyone know what the next decision is likely to be in the US with regards to interest rates? Up, down, hold? Deano
  13. Im not sure if this is a good thing or a bad thing!? (bare with me) I would never think of doing this. Personally, I think anybody who does is erm, well, stupid! What are these people going to do when they get a partner each and want to have children? What is going to happen when somebody wants to move out, but their money is tied up in a shared mortgage? This is a really bad idea, and I think an extremely desperate attempt to try and get 1st time buyers in. The good thing? Maybe the people who are stupid enough to go for it will help people who hang on a bit longer. With groups of 4 or 5 FTB's buying these places, maybe supply will begin to exceed demand for the rest of the FTB's who waited, hence another ingredient for a crash!? What do you guys think of that?
  14. I have just been on the phone to a friend in Germany who has been over here for a couple of weeks. He just asked me why everyone is selling their houses in England! Couldnt believe the amount of "FOR SALE" signs he saw!
  15. Im sorry, but the "stress, worry, pain and despair" you mention has been bought on by thousands of people themselves. If they think that these people are going to live off the equity in their houses and we are going to pay the pathetic house prices to pay for it then they are wrong. Dont ask me for sympathy for people who have made this decision.
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