adarmo

Ah right, so 14 years to the peak...... which is then four years off.

I remember having this 'good luck in the next war' argument with my dad. I was like #what am I going to war for? I don't have a family and I don't own a house, why don't you go since you have both?' No real comeback other than mumbling something about desertion or some ********. Now I do own a house and I'll gladly shoot any c*** that tries to take it off me. Wouldn't expect others to fight the fight if they have no stake in the future of a country though.

Covid was, but look what happened there. 70 million people losing 2 years of their lives to give a minority pack of half demented or obese an extra few months or years. I was born early 80s. FWIW (was having this discussion the other day) the people behind us are even more screwed. I paid £1,200 a year for uni fees versus £9,600 today. Houses haven't become more affordable and rent has just kept going up (although there's notionally at least more favour on the tenant these days than a few years ago). I fear now I am tomorrow's boomer!

If the young are not welcomed into the village they will burn it down to feel its warmth.......

It seems this is out of kilter with the 18 year cycle though. If 2012 is the bottom 2030 is the top. Perhaps there's some pull back this year or next before things kick off skyward again. Be interesting to see what happen re inflation and interest rates. If oil prices come off and there's a peaceful resolution in Ukraine then there will be deflationary pressures building by the end of this year.

Lol, but that's never been accurate either. In honesty I'm surprised buy a 5% figure of this year but I guess we'll have to wait and see. Mad isn't it? To think all could have been fixed by the Tories in 2010 too. Allowed it to bottom out and allow the sensible to buy homes a good multiples. Imagine the economic benefits and improvements in standards of living. Instead we got money thrown at them. Doing the right thing doesn't pay off.

Yep, sorry I mis transposed the 2023 figure. I would have thought 2008 was the all out bottom. Prices started increasing again in 2013 so I guess the top of the top might be 3 to 9 years out.

Interesting read, Knight Frank predicting a 1% increase this year. Also an introduction to the 18 year property cycle which I found very interesting. Crash due in 3 years I think. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-10718967/Will-house-prices-rising-Knight-Frank-predicts-end-boom.html

Perhaps. Had this debate with someone a while ago. IF you expect to clear the initial balance of the debt during your working like and IF the interest rate on the loan is lower than other sources of borrowing. But if you're going to earn £30K a year and have the thing written off in 30 or 40 years then wouldn't bother. Personally I think it's a disgrace that rather than making self employed and anyone of pension age pay NI they burn the young with this. Sure, too many go to uni to study wishy-washy BS but, in part, I think that's a function of slacker standards in schools, an insistence on academia over trades or vocational courses and grade inflation. Cynically the expansion in university numbers was simply to keep youth unemployment down.

Why should anyone do anything for anyone else in a society? The old contract was simple. HE paid by state and in return you ended up paying more tax. That seemed simple. Pink Floyd (greatest band ever) all met at Oxford IIRC. As did Blur, Radiohead, most of Queen. Against this argument Coldplay also met at university so I'm torn whether to allow arts in there or not. On balance world is richer for Pink Floyd than it is poorer for Coldplay. Take the point, you're either creative or not but university is simply much, much more than the subject you study.

Jackpot, imho.

Nope. I'll warn you (bit too late maybe) that Mervyn King's face when he talks about who came up with QE makes me want to process them all through a woodchipper feet and most junior first while the others watch.

The crypto market isn't regulated. People can say anything to move the market and make money on it. The rest are stable and regulated to various extents. Shares are buying into a business and there are multiple ways of valuing that. Discounted cash flows, net asset value etc. Crypto is simply buying today expecting to sell it tomorrow for more money but of course won't because HODL. It's like a cult. I'm not even property buyers do that.

It's a glorified pump and dump scheme. The scammers are the exchanges (more like a betting shop) and the large wallets that can clearly manipulate the price on such thin volumes. It is the greater fool school of investment. At least you can live in a house. Happy New Year.

Remarkable. So 39% not vaccinated despite them being 10% of the adult population? Ergo, unvaccinated are disproportionately more likely to be in hospital. It's Even more complex than that because the higher % vaccinated demographics are the most vulnerable so it's fair to say you'd see a significant reduction in people in hospital if everyone was vaccinated. Thinking of it another way if 100% were vaccinated then 100% of hospitalizations would be vaccinated.

Yes, i came across that in my economics degree. I don't disagree with you until you suggest that the antivaxxers are thinking for themselves and coming to the correct conclusion. Most seem to be inumerate tbh. In my experience the people actually doing the work are quite keen to avoid being ill for a period of time and take steps to avoid it. The people i know who openly are refusing to get vaccinated have low levels of academic attainment and tend to be self employed gig jobbers and generally younger. The above, btw, is supported well with data.

Maybe but we've an Everyman in our town and it's a totally different experience. It may just evolve into something better. Having saod that I'm looking for a 70 inch oled in the sales 😀

So low inflation don't buy a house. High inflation don't buy a house? What about buying a house with a super cheap 5 year fixed rate mortgage and sit bank while inflation does the heavy lifting for you? Meanwhile if inflation is running at 6% what rate will rents go up each year?

My predictions House prices up 5% and a reversal of the high price rise trends for places in 6 finger lands as people realise being that far out of everything is only good in a scary pandemic. Inflation to run at roughly the level of house prices. Interest rates over 1%. BitCoin finally exposed as a scam. Travel getting back to normal for fully vaccinated. Anti vaxxers fired en masse and sent to live on a leper colony where they will learn all about natural immunity.

Question, if you fall ill with a preventable (through vaccination) disease will you turn up at hospital and expect them to treat you and your family? If so, is that because you're entitled? How much do you think lockdown was related to keeping the NHS from being overwhelmed and what do you think of the disproportionate numbers of unvaccinated requiring intensive care?

Everything second hand. Some amazingly cheap furniture out there compared to store price. 200 quid sofa, 80 quid sideboard. Worst case scenario get an interest free intro offer on a credit card and buy stuff you like. For big ticket electronics like monster tv and hifi the January sales are only around the corner. Finally ping your closest friends and family and just mention what you're on the lookout for. They might have a spare or use that as an excuse to replace it and give/ sell their existing one to you..... or know of someone who has one. Congratulations! My only regret about buying was not doing it sooner.

Great post!

They really mean how debt is allocated across society. Even then that suggests they can push on a string to get people to borrow more. People teams to decide that by themselves. Only of the people approaching the bank can the bank decide who gets that debt. Wealth is equity, not debt.

Ever heard the phrase 'being poor is expensive'?

All that does is point out they're still a deadweight loss to the UK. If they were spending in the uk it would have some offset but paying people to do nothing isn't good for the economy in the longer term. What's your argument without Spain?