Bazman

How am I Fraudster? Please elborate? Urban Comando I agree with your points about social housing. It really is just a joke. However I am not asking that social housing be scrapped and not replaced I am asking simply that all housing be built to the same standard and in sufficent numbers to keep price inflation in line with wge inflation. You are right though politicians will still push social housing until the realise its a vote loser with the very demographic they are trying to help. They will not realise this until people tell them?

Ah no I don't want a return to Edwardian age, but I do want well built houses that is all I meant. My point is that even those of the welfare state should have access to nice housing. It is clearly stupid to build social housing that is clearly viewed as second best by the majority of people, leading those that live there to be stigmatised. Surely it makes sense just to build more quality houses in general and let market forces do the rest? As for Right_freds_dead he is a bull: if you want the status quo and as a bull he does don't vote

Hi there, I see there is a lot of anger on the board directed toward the current crop of retarded and corrupt MP's rightly so, but not voting will only allow these guys to prosper? As I see it Labour need to go: Browns fingerprints are all over the houseprice bubble and although they are committed to building more housing they haven't actually lived up to their commitments surprise surprise! Conservatives are worse? They have Kirsty Allsop ar their housing advisor, are advocating renting as a large part of the housing "solution" (albout have been making similar noises) and have pledged to introduce planning proposals that will seriously reduce the amount of new homes built. The truth is successive goverments since the 80's have intentially built fewer homes than needed to try and keep house prices artificially high. Also the whole concept of social housing is a cruel joke played on the young. There are clearly the ghettos of the future. I would not want to live there would you? All the main parties are pretty much commited to keeping the majority home owners happy. However there are many amongest those home owners ( I am one) who would like to move up the ladder and are unable too. I think we should make the main parties aware of how unpopular their pro house price inflation policies are with large sections of the electorate. Now is one of the few times of the year when politicians actually listen. So take your chance please send them a letter like the one below. Dear Sir/Madam, I am currently an undecided voter. For me housing is the key issue. As someone who has suffered from the hugely excessive houseprice inflation of the last 15 years I would like to know what your party will do about it. Will you commit to build more "quality" housing with the number of new builds tied to the size of the population and with sufficent numbers being built to keep house inflation in line with wage inflation ? Ideally they should build housing for those at the top of the market so they can move up and then everyone canmove up behind them this way the whole of soiety benefits. Social housing is miguided effort that will not attract my vote. I want to see more "quality" housing built, similat to that built during the Edwardian era for example. Will you commit to abandoing the social housing and commiting to build quality homes for all? Also I would like to see Lord Turners recommendation for a maximum multiple of salaries for mortgages be implemented. The banks will find ways to circumvent anything but a tough point of access limit. I look forward to hearing your responses. They will guide me voting actions. Kind Regards

OK but according to channel 4 teletext the figures are 61% up on last year. I realise its from a very low base but that seems more than a seasonal bounce? I still don't get it with the economy heading sown the shitter I'd have thought house prices would be in free fall, but there still seems to be plenty of pent up demand. Obviously joe public is not buying into the end of an era scenario. If soeone else can out the 61% rise into context I'd be much obliged. But I;m looking for debate backed up by evidence not blind denials. There is a lot of talk on this board about how many mortgage approvals are necessary to sustain the market. Are we getting to those levels if so will it be a short burst due to pent up demand? Or a sustained move?

Well the money lenders do ohave the property at collateral + in the early years you are only paying interest anyway which further protects them. I don't necessarily support the money lenders are evil hypothesis but its clear things got out of control. But they are suffering in the downturn too (I don't feel particularly sorry for them either) I think Lord Turners recommendation that mortgages be capped up 3 times salary is the only way we will really stop this happenign again. If you agree then contact your MP to let them know how you feel. They'll be especially receptive right now. Ultimately falling prices are good for all but those at the very top of the housing ladder. Most people want to live in a bigger place they don't necessarily want to pay more for it. As it stands even home owners who want to move to a bigger house are benefiting from the current correction. So I'm not sure its quite the political hot potato most parties seem to think it is.

Hey Free trader, Given current situation do you think inflation of stagflation is more likely?

They can increase the prices but if no one buys? Better to scale back production which is what we are seeing?

If you bought at 2002 price you should be OK? I would have thought. New builds don't tend to go up as much in the up turn but maybe that'll mean they don;t go down as much either?

I do find this quite interesting. This can be read as bullish or bearish? Bullish is you take it that people have more cash to spend bearish if these are actually people who would have prefered a new car but just can't afford it anymore (or even get the credit!) Or maybe people have suddenly realised that buying a new car is a mugs game, give me the keys oh dear my shiny new car has just dropped 15% in value! Not sure about the Yen argument, the Yen appreciated sharply but has since come back somewhat besides I really don't thing manufacturers are in a position to pass the costs on?

No you have to respect Soros. But he also said on the BBC about 2 weeks ago that house prices in the UK are still over valued and he expected further falls. Although he did say they would not fall quite as far as the US as the UK didn't have the same over supply problem.

Prices tend to tick up in spring especially for convertiables but remember asking is not getting. If you have cash I'll bet you can still get some very attractive deals.

Sorry to be so stupid but what does PPT stand for?

Well clearly you don't work in finance or in London.

+ unless you live in Edinburgh you would have to pay someone to manage it, agents like DJ Alexander charge 15% for such a service. Which is like having your flat empty for 1.5 months per year. I've a flat in Edinburgh from my student days its worth £140k (hopefully) and I get £675p/m rent on it. I seriously doubt you would get £500p/m on a £100k flat but if you can I might well be interested. Can you give specific example.

All debate is welcome so long as its well reasoned! Also the BoE seem to think inflation if not hyper inflation will be importnat check out my post here: http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...p;#entry1828619 last comment in p4

which article quoted the BoE saying that?

I like the quote that they are borrowing more this year than the last 300 YEARS PUT TOGETHER! http://managementtoday.co.uk/channel/Finan...orrowing-soars/

I wouldn't worry the most they will success in is a very temporary bounce just in time for next years election, thereafter watch out below rates will have to rise sharply. Of course the government realise this but its their only hope of clinging onto power. check this out the attached picture: The Bank of England pension fund is managed on behalf of a very select and savvy group of people with access to a lot of market insight - the employees of the central bank. With great market timing the fund sold out of equities entirely at the end of 2006 cutting a 21.6% holding down to 0.1%, thus avoiding a 35% drop in UK equities since that time. Awesome market timing, the fund was consequently up 12% last year when all around markets crashed. The fund’s holding of Index Linked Gilts has shot up from 25.6% of assets to a 70.7% proportion of assets during the same period. That is a big bet of the pension pot owned by everyone who works at the Bank of England. Index Linked Gilts are linked to RPI - the inflation rate - you buy them if you are worried about inflation. They are a hedge against inflation. Hold on, if deflation is (as the political elite and their client media commentators claim) the big threat, why is the Bank of England’s pension fund betting 3/5 of the £2.2 billion pot on hedging against inflation? This is their personal pension fund. Money talks. Source: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/about/human...nsionreport.pdf

Hey There, There seem to be a few problems with the recovery scenario: The government can not wave a magic wand and make the problem go away . They are simply shifting the bad debt from the banks to the public sector. This will have to be funded and the only way the UK will be abe to service this debt is to devalue Sterling +raise taxes. This makes it highly unlikely that foreign investors will pile back into the UK housing market as some bulls seem to predict. What they make on the housing would likeyl be wiped out by FX losses. It will also lead to higher interest rates especially when you consider 7eral other governments most notably the US are following similar strategies. Moreover the scheme of the government proping up the housing market in clearly unsustainable even they concede taxes are going to have to rise to try and pay off the huge debts they are taking on. This in tandem with higher intereest rates are liabel to kill any nascent recovery. Fundamentally house prices are still over valued by any measure, even on the cheapest mortgage its still cheaper to rent. The house prices were inflated by debt spiralling out of control. For example we start with £100 I lend it to you you lend to to another and another lends it back to me and we repeat 10 times. Now the banks invented ever more ingenious ways of allowing higher multiples to be lent which was fine so long as house prices kept rising. But when they turned... Well going back to my simple example now we each owe £1000 even though we only started with £100 and if some one defaults someone has to write down £1000. So even if the government could prop up the market for a short period, its already been shown that the old model is unsustainable and a return to fair valuations still seems likely given the governemnt can only provide a short term boost? Indeed the recovery would seem to be a bit of a false dawn if as is likely its accompanies by higher inflation. Your real returns are likey to be poor at best if not negative. Also history is not really on there side all other efforts in history to prop up bubble markets have failed, I don't see anything that would change things this time. Any boost to the housing market is only likely to be temporary? Lastly if you look at house prices they do tend to trend for years at a time. Its very hard to predict when a trend will turn so you are well advised to wait for a turn in the market to be firmly established beofre committing. Reason being if you buy now with fixed mortgages around 5% and house prices go up 10% you only ake 5%, however if they fall 10% you loose 10% + 5% = 15%. So three years of gains are likely to be wiped out by one year of losses if you get the timing wrong. Who would take such a bet? Given that is anything the probabilites seem to be tiled toward further losses? Clearly you are best to wait for the uptrend to be firmly in place before committing? Therefore its hard to see that extra credit will necessarily translate into higher prices any time soon.

Well I've bought three properties in my life and I've had this happen twice. First time I coughed up as it was only a couple of thousand. 2nd time got my survey done then "another bidder" came in and the seller wanted an extra £10k. After taking a very deep breath I told him I had no interest in a bidding war. A few weeks later I got a call and the flat was mine at my inital bid and that was in 2000 a bull market. Anendotal I know, but I really think for some agents/sellers such last minute manipulations are standard practice. In this market you can afford to have your bluff called, there will be other houses/flats the only difference is they will likely be cheaper. Baz

I would take these figures with a pinch of salt I currently pay £250pw for a two bed, 1 double 1 single in blackheath. I would expect Bermondsey to be significantly cheaper. I live in a converted townhouse which is pretty well spec'd. No idea how long they take to turn over, but I know when I was looking last summer. I had a choice of flats some in the same street. Remember you will get 7-10% below asking in rent without a murmur and may get 15% if you really haggle. (This usually works best around early december as the landlord knows he's screwed till Feb is he doesn't let it go before christmas.) Anyway I don't know Bermondsey that well but I suspect the figures you have came from an estate agent? Remember if you go through an agent they will relieve you of 5-10% and you have to pay tax etc so make sure you have a shrewd idea of your likely cash in hand. My advice would be to let the property yourself, in my experience agents are great when things are going great but when problems arise thye don't want to know.

Just to add you can see what prices are actually trading for in your desired area here: www.mouseprice.com Prices are obvioulsy heading south so you should achieve even better prices that those shown here. In this market no offer is too cheecky. Houses are routinely changing hands 10-15% below asking even up to 20% in some cases so don't be afraid to try your hand. This is a buyers market, and you are the perfect buyer given that you have no chain etc, so leverage this to your advantage.

Hey there be careful the UK government is trying to rack up record debts and print money so what might look a good FX rate now may not in a few months/years. Sterling is likely to get hammered further against the Euro. Also in this scenario we would see much higher inflation and so interest rates which will likely kill any nascent rally in house prices. If you are buying as an investment I would urge you to wait. The returns are baised against home owners! If you buy now and prices rally 10% and you are paying 5% fixed on your mortgage then you only make 5% right? But if house prices go down 10% you still have to pay your mortgage and you loose 15%!! So three years of 10% rises in nominal house prices can be wiped out in one year of 10% falls! Therefore timing the housing market is extremely important. The one good thing is that is does tend to trend!! No one can say accurately when the trend will turn but if you want to buy you are best to wait for up upward trend to be firmly established before buying. Anyway good luck, if you are intent of buying now I hope you find a place that you like. I guess if you are buying a place in the UK, you will be spending more time here so the FX may not be such an issue.