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House Price Crash Forum


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About Bazman

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    HPC Poster
  1. We agree on Brown and his cronies, how Brown can claim to be the saviour of the economy beggard belief, he tweaked the inflation rate to ignore hous price rises, he deisgned the current regulatory system which completely failed to prevent the crises. But remember new labour really=new tory they are both founded on monetarist economic policy which basically means decling interest rates and asset bubbles. Don't forget the tories had their own bubble in the 80/90's not to mention black wednesday? I think the best we can hope for is a hung parliament, with Vince Cable as Chancellor and Cameron as PM.
  2. Are you seriously thinking of voting Tory on the premise that they will do the opposite of what they are promising? Keeping the house buying public happy will be just the kind of sugar they will want to help the cuts medicing go down.
  3. But look at the tory policies thir housing document which is a bog boon for BTLers http://www.conservatives.com/Policy/Where_we_stand/Housing.aspx and their planning document which is a NIMBY charter. If you are serious about about controlling house price inflation the CONSERVATIVES ARE WORSE than labour. Personally I am leaning more toward Lib Dem, I just want them to swear that they will not form a coalition government. I'm not voting for the other two because I really don;t want wither of them.
  4. I agree with everything you say here. The problem is the tories are not offering any real change? Even more house price inflation happy policies? and a shadow cabinet seriously lacking in charisma or talent (just like labour) as exemplified by George nice but dim Osbourne.
  5. OK cool it looks like we agree fundmentally that a shortage of housing supply has been key to elevating UK house prices and keeping them high despite the credit bubble bursting. Of course close to zero interest rates have helped too! Even with your more sanguine figures you still have 150k more people each year. I'm guessing since 2007 we haven't built nearly enough houses and the same is likely true of previous recession sover the last 40 years. Obviously without a more rigorous analysis you can't be more precise, but ultimately it does seem borne out by the price action. Also I open up the question again if a shortage of housig has not been a factor how come UK house prices have help up so well despite inflating more than just about any other western economy? I think the answer is simple a lack of quality housing being build leading to a shortage of suiable alternatives.
  6. Hi there, Ahem yes I think I used 6.5% not 0.65%! OK so there are still 390,000 new people each year. OK the figures all less dramatic and I suppose if you still assume everyone lives in the nuclear family things are OK. But remember we need 390,000 every year even in downturn even during the boom they weree only making clower to 200,000 a year, so even if you assume couples there was just about enough at the boom times, but now that new builds have collapsed I don;t think they will be able to catch up the short fall when the economy finally does pick up. Moreover the rate of population growth is on a clear uptrend, I don't think this is a bad thing per se, but we must have enough good homes for everybody. And the rate of single people living alone is also increasing I believe http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/1754824.stm Also my point is that the quality of the homes being built tend to crampt and of poorer quality than those built in yesteryear. Sofor me and I suspect amny other people the new build numbers don;t tell teh whole truth. They are only really adding to the existing stock if they are a similar quality. Ideally they should be a better quality!
  7. My answer is not very. (Remember their housing advisor is Kirsty Alsopp) http://www.thebusinessdesk.com/westmidlands/news/21914-needs-subbing-king-sturge-partner-fears-planning-nimbyism-outbreak.html?news_section=19011 http://tscg.biz/saintblog/2010/03/prepare-for-uk-nimby-government-big-radical-scary-policies.html http://propertytribes.ning.com/forum/topics/conservative-planning-green There are more but most observors seem to think this proposal will make planning applications more difficult? Also check out their green paper on housing: http://www.conservatives.com/News/News_stories/2009/04/Shapps_launches_radical_new_housing_policies.aspx It very eloquently points out the Labours shortcomings but does nothing to really address them and indeed one of its central policies is to help B2Lers??
  8. I agree, and that's the problem the conservatives have proposals to strengthen the position on NIMBY's further. So the whole I hate labour so I will vote conservative is flawed. But I am not advocating laour either. You really got to talk to your prospective MP's and let your feeling be known. I am British but my view is a minority one. Indeed we are in a minority although a large one compared to OO's. But it seems from this chat we cannot even decide amost ourselves what it is that we want. I hope this thread goes someway to rectifying that. It seems we are starting to reach some form of consensus. It seems clear to me that more houses need to build and if theis can be done is such a way that the overall quality of the housing stock improves then this should not be feared. As houses are built in sifficient numbers and prices start to fall in real terms then less money wil have to be poured into what in a non prductive asset. this should allow the UK economy to rebalance and become far more sustainable. Again this need not be feared everyone really can benefit. The much vaunted monetary economics was untimately about gradually decliing interest rates and rising debt, whic his clearly unsustainable. Once you show people the alternative I think more people will be receptive than you think. If nothing else it must be worth a try.
  9. Hey I really ike your graph of UK V London V Scotland house prices.

    Can I ask where you got the data from? Or can you pm it to me please?



  10. OK I am prepared to admit if I am wrong. But how do you exaplin the fact that depite the UK house prices inflating more than almost any other country they have retraced the least? Also although some housing has been built labour have not even come close to matching the commitment they made to a "step change" in the housing supply which even they admitted was "urgently needed"? Also the new builds in general tend to be small and of low quality so altough they increase the housing supply I am not sure for many people they are a viable alternative and they certainly don't help increase living standards quite the contrarty. So lets try and put some figures on it, should clarify things. ( I admit I have put this together quickly and am open to other figures) In 2006 pre crash only about 240,000 new homes were built, its substantially less now. http://www.blurtit.com/q515065.html I am assuming 20000 per month, in the artciale it's more like 15-18000. Right now popultion growth in the UK is 0.65% http://www.google.com/publicdata?ds=wb-wdi&met=sp_pop_grow&idim=country:GBR&dl=en&hl=en&q=UK+population+growth So given a population of approx 60,000,000.00 (I am being conservative) thats an extra 3,900,000 people each year. I don't argue that each individual needs a new home (they do not) but even if you divide by 4 the size of the average family. So the 1 million empty homes are used up in just 1 year? I am not against using these empty homes not at all , they are the best solution all round but they are not a complete solution. (based on these figures) The reason you have seen much more pronounced implosions in places like Ireland, Spain and even the US is because they were kept building houses at a rate consumate with population growth. Currently in the UK thanks to low rates and lack of supply meaning few viable alternatives for buyers owners can afford to sit back and wait (hope) for things to return to "normal"
  11. You are of course correct but the credit bubble was world wide (well first world wide) at least. Most other countries have thus far seen a far bigger bursting of their housinng bubbles, despite having similarly lax monetary policy. The US being a prime example. However the UKs shortage of housing is helping keep UK prices artifically high. (as well as the British publics love affair with property). Its not one or the other but a hefty dose of both. Even with fiscal dicipline (as opposed to monetary) house prices can be kept high. As it is the BoE prints money to buy gilts keeping rates artifically low. Its a blatant attelpt to inflate their way out and it may work (although I think its unlikely). Most likely there will come a turning point in the debt market but when that will be is very hard to forecast. The point remains that even with tight fiscal policy house prices can easily remain elevated. However if we build more houses everery one can benefit from larger houses and the jobs that buiding these houses would create. It would also show BTL'ers and the public at large that the game really has changed and they can look elsewhere if they want to punt a market.
  12. Hey it was never going to be as easy as just asking once and the politicians doing an about face on the spot. But as they hear more and more of the same from more and more people then they will have to either listen or look for a differnt job. If they still don't get it we gotta push harder.
  13. If you just acquiesce you wil get phuqed. The only way to get change is to push for it. If you start saying something its far more likely to happen. Just make it clear you vote depends on more quality houses being built. Don't let them fob you off with anything less. Like I say with the blance of power so delicately poised, I think you will find them far more receptive then they have ever been previously. Voting labour will mean more of the same and so will voting tory, their policies are actually even more house price inflationary than Labour if you can believe that!! You are right all the major parties are house price inflation happy because they all think its the only way to get eleceted. Until you tell them otherwise this will not change. NOT VOTING IS A VOTE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF HOUSE PRICE INFLATION
  14. Possibly I really think that if you build enough whether its built for profit or not the effect will be the same. Again if there is enough housing people should be able to move wherever they like without being priced out of such a move renting or otherwise. The problem is simple: lack of supply. This must be addressed urgently. BTW I like Mr Punters idea in the extreme you could see each person using the tax breaks currently given to pensions to build their own house. This could only be used once to build their own abode.
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