Doesn't Commute Anymore

Things have not been so bearish in ages - it has to be a drop, it just has to be ! -1.2% my guess with the market facing "strong headwinds" in the months ahead

Really good post. You put together a lot of observations I have seen. The transatlantic route from a postdoc to independent scientist is full of icebergs though, not all poking out from above sea level. There's a mix of a talent, hard work and luck needed to successfully cross, but the same is true for many other professions in life. Its looking a bit iceberg-y for the next few years, though.

Oily estate agent on BBC breakfast now : "If you are a FTB, now is a good time to buy"

I've noticed a growth in the number of broken bikes in the cycle bays. I think the scheme is clearly struggling to get anywhere close to break even. I've always felt being a member was good value at the introductory prices, but a 100% increase is something else, though. Basically, with an oyster card to pay for public transport, there is little benefit in cycling for over 30 minutes when the hire charges come in. Also, I think this is the max they could ever raise the price - any more and locals will stop using it, making it a tourist-only fad.

Yes, this is how I see it. The market is very bipolar - stuff up north slowly falling as demand has evaporated, with friends I know unable to sell in Liverpool (well, without hefty discount!). Work colleagues in London still proclaiming multiple viewings when their North London place was put on the market recently, however.

Well, at least you are human, Try being a pet in the UK at the moment for having it really tough.

Rents are so high on that street as it is HMO territory - Brookes uni, nurses and healthcare professionals (lots at trainee grade), Oxford medic students and postgrads at the research centres of the JR/Churchill Hospitals all want to live near their study/work place. So its houses rented on a per room basis and lots of demand. It was the only and last time I lived in an HMO. Started off well with friends, but people gradually move on and get replaced and its only time till you come across a bad egg. This bad egg was a psychopathic student nurse who had a boyfriend that beat her up. Her cope mechanism was to steal, lie and make stuff up about flatmates. After that I decided to get my own place where i lived, even if it meant being in a crappy part of town, as it did as a Londoner a few years on .

I lived down the street as a student. Boy do I miss those happy, responsible-free days when 9am was a really early start and 4am was an average night back from a party. The story was that it was put there by an eccentric local radio personality as a protest to some council bye-laws or other. i.e. he wasn't allowed to do something sensible to the house but was entitled to put a shark through his roof. So he did.

A classic case of the powerful trampling all over the powerless, regardless of the law. Trump's development broke many laws (tampering with water supplies to residences, flattening dunes in a sight of special scientific interest, borderline trespass and harassment to locals) that would be not tolerated were it not done by a billionaire. What was so sad is that the golf complex will generate a pitiful number of jobs - a few greenkeepers, caddies, chambermaids, a hotel manager or two - but nothing worthy of the damage done to the local community. You could argue that is it was Google headquarters or its like being built there, that the changes may benefit the community economically to justify the damage, but a golf course even with hotel/bar/resort etc. will not generate a boom in local employment.

.

Celebrate 300 pages of Gold strategy in the current economy debate with this limited edition lego goldmine: Or even better, get some shares in the real thing (DYOR, don't buy into strength, beware of leveraged investments blah blah etc.)

Tory party conference - lots of references by Boris Johnston to "being a party of home ownership".

Well, I thought the audience asked good questions but the panel were a waste of space and didnt really address the issues that were asked. The panel needed to address why the banks won't lend rather than moan about them not lending, and indeed answer what this sought-after lending would achieve. The panel all seemed very out of touch, not aware of the root cause of the problem and desperate (Rees-Mogg hailed buying government bonds with printed cash as the solution, and there were sad comments over who had the toughest upbringing etc.). These guys are busy squirreling away their own fortunes and preparing their own escape route. And it shone through as disinterest from the panel. The big answer to the banks is to "kick them" into action, but when pointed out that this was the same panel answer as two years ago, there was general disinterest and a repeat of the "kick the banks" mantra. I wonder if the problem here was Dimbleby, and maybe we need a sharper heavyweight chairing this now to move on from the same old same old comments. I say move Dimbleby to University Challenge and Paxman to QT.

Housing bound to come up here in this debate with Cable's 'use your grandparent's pension to put down a deposit' scheme in the news this week. Danny Alexander lining up for a confrontation with her here: + said there was too high taxation on earnings and too low tax on non-earnings (like house price profits) + said banks were unregulated for too long (like 125% mortgages) On another note, that Rees-Moss aristocrat represents everything wrong with the UK - idiot overprivilaged son given easy path to power

Agreed. You should write this up FT, and send it to Moneyweek.

For sure, alumini for funding capital expenditure and long term projects, like these campuses and networks abroad. Also for funding scholarships and studentships to counteract criticisms of only taking rich applicants. I have no idea if they will raise enough money (sounds a bad time to be asking, doesnt it?) Deals will be departmental or course specific in the next few years, but watch for greater integration in the years ahead and the building of infrastructure in foreign countries, like teaching suites etc., to try and corner the market in a particular country for a particular university, who will then roll out more and more courses.

I dont think free courses will be the way top UK universities go - things will become more exclusive not free to all. I've no idea how to make money easily from a free open access course or how to pitch the idea to a VC or Dean, although some unis may try it as a high risk strategy out of the need to find a USP. I see training partnerships with foreign governments - i.e. we train all your students exclusively for the next 10 years - as the way forward.

Sorry, I've only just seen this. I don't doubt your anecdotal experiences or the fact they differ to mine. I have enjoyed and agreed with a lot of your past posts. The changes to UK university applications are institution-specific according to several factors I will attempt to list below. My job title is similar to yours and I've worked at both middle and upper ranked unis this last 6 months, while Mrs DCA works at a so called "lower" post-92 uni (just to state: excellent student learning experience and support offered in some subject areas, patchy in others). On that basis, I made a few comments about the low/middle/upper ends of UK university sector. I must remain generic as I'm highly traceable given my niche field, which I will call Science/Engineering/Medicine. Interesting anecdotal factors leading to variation in UK university recruitment this year: (I can't quote stats, I hope you understand): + The fees are detrimentally affecting London (and probably the SE) as a normal student destination as livings costs + tuition fees lead to simply too much debt after 3/4 years. This is serious for me (science/engineering/medicine) as the expensive south is the natural destination for smart state school talent whom are Oxford/Cambridge standard but don’t get in or choose not to go. + Certain unis recruit heavily from a certain demographic profile which may or may not be affected. Middle class families with low interest rates on their equity rich mortgage may still have the cash to pay for Tarquin/Jessica to go to their uni of choice, for example. You can probably name the unis this will leave unaffected. + Applicants being pushed towards more vocational courses, which favours unis already thinking along those lines, rather than those offering pure degree courses. This year is the first time I have seen Science/Engineering applicants have a detailed career plan for after their course, rather than a vague idea of the area they might favour working in. + Some unis recruit heavily from the local area or recruit a lot of mature students, both subject to changing circumstances + Decline of the OU as an alternative. The OU is putting up fees, and the quality of its product has fallen from previous excellent standards as it has not embraced changes to the sector, such as e-technology, quickly enough. It also got its funding cut by the government a few years ago as a punishment for running too many leisure learning courses, rather than upskilling/reskilling the population (ELQ funding cuts) . Who is getting these OU applicants now? + A real HPC factor mentioned in other threads: lots of unis have privatised their accommodation (sold to Unite etc) which leads to better living standards but higher living costs. Students are starting to do the sums based on these privatised halls of residence charges and say no. Unis with affordable accommodation, or near large population centres for living-at-home students, are doing better. + The last point, see below - recruitment this year is a red herring and neither of the universities I’ve worked at in 2012 have it as a high priority given future direction. The foreign student market is, make no mistake, where the real cheesecake and politics are now, its very sad to say, and I'm not sure how much unis care about UK students, particularly postgrads, when able to take higher paying foreigner applicants and, this is key, sign partnerships to train foreign students into the future. IELTS was always level 7 where I have worked, although both this uni and the last one I worked at had a list of work-arounds for those that fall a little short but can pay handsomely. To use another sporting analogy, universities are getting like Formula One teams when the technical regulations change; each develops a work-around not in the spirit of the rules rather than respond as expected. IELTS level and UK borderforce requirements for a student visa mean little, for example: + There is a campus, or partner university, abroad where I can be flown to teach or to lead teaching staff activities remotely + I can teach through e-learning + We take over a component of the foreign degree or serve as a placement for that part. If we include this as part of accredited medical/professional training, which can or cannot include a salaried training post or bursary, the visa category and requirements can be different (seen it done, but not done it myself). Foreign student recruitment is going to get very dirty and competitive in the next few years. Expect exclusivity deals between certain UK universities and foreign ministries of education, or at least some "accreditation process" to limit which UK universities can take funded foreign students. This is the real game now for future growth, and my final reason why university applications are variable this year and the big answer to the question of the thread : why top unis cant fill their places. My past uni, and certainly my new uni, do not really care about filling their places this year and have made less marketing effort relative to previous years. Recruitment patterns this year are not really life changing and can be sacrificed for future gains. For example, there has been a huge cut in UK marketing focus and availability of certain student accommodation this year at my new uni, and my new job has no student recruitment targets for a few years, but by then I am expected to have a sizeable slice of the international market to keep my post by 2015. The standards and choices of accomodation will be sorted by then, as well. Simply put, top unis are thinking globally now and need 2-3 years to be set up globally, and this is where the effort is currently going. In a way it’s a real double kick in the teeth for UK applicants this year – 1) pay huge fees and living costs equivalent to a second mortgage 2) see yourself as no longer the priority or lifeblood of the university as it thinks about the global marketplace

I've recently switched academic jobs from a middle ranking UK uni to a top-end UK uni, although the new job is at a lower academic grade. (analogy : I'm now a squad player at Tottenham Hotspur rather than a first team regular at Southampton Town FC). I changed a little before implications of the fee changes were known but: + Widespread panic at lower ranked unis, recruitment well down and last ditch attempts to bag clearing students underway. Standards and grade boundaries were a little more strictly enforced by exam boards this year, so many iffy applicants missed their offer grades, but were still offered a place. Got a pulse? Congrats, you've been accepted! + Middle ranking unis having to significantly drop entry requirements for the final places on their courses. Acceptance of students for the final course places who are really not up to the standard needed to begin studies (i.e no maths A level, but an offer for a course in science, engineering, health). Double whammy ahead for these unis as they are also under pressure to perform for the REF (the UK research assessment exercise looking at the quality of research at each uni) in an environment where there are funding council budget cuts as well + No change at top unis, except that there are a few MORE places this year being made available to the best UK students. Having said that, uni deans and vice chancellors are wanting more foreign >£9k bums on seats rather than just a £9k UK or EU bum, so these extra places are offered quite sparingly. Increasingly easy for weak foreign applicants to get on prestigious top UK university courses if they have the cash.

You beat me to it, Zanu There's pretty much a buyer-seller Mexican standoff in Liverpool, meaning family houses in nice areas do come up for auction, especially properties that need a lot of work to modernise (elderly couple who have not refurbished for 40 years etc.). These give a good indicator as the the floor price in a street (we all know ceiling price = highest ever from buyer competition and doing up the property, this is the opposite) I was just stating that there are no examples like this in my area this time, and that these are the most useful auction results in my opinion. Not to take away from the work of M21er, who does a sterling job here.

Thanks to M21er in advance for what will be an insightful auction. Auction stock in my area (Liverpool) is quite low quality housing in relatively undesirable parts of the city bought during the boom years, and should take a mega hit on their peak-ish previous purchase price

The gaddafi incident was nepotism. Happens everywhere, Medical school is full of the unmotivated offspring of doctors. Its why Euan Blair works for Goldman Sachs, Ayrton Senna's untalented nephew drives the Williams F1 car and everyone in Indian politics seems to be a Ghandi. Or getting on more hot ground why the last US presidents are Bush-Clinton-Bush-Obama-probably Clinton (Hillary not interestedin 2016....I don't think so). If there wasnt a wreckless gene in the family tree, a few Kennedys should be on that list also. I've no affiliation to LSE or background in the subjects they study. But LSE is a top 20 world uni, as are Ox, Camb, UCL and IC. Uni education and research is one of the few fields the UK leads the world in.

I'd be very surprised if any of the top UK unis are involved in this, and you have named two of the top five in the UK (also Europe) here. It's the ones at the lower end of the league tables that need to take dodgy students of dubious merit to balance the books - who then, of course, disappear once in the country. UCL and LSE reject very capable students all the time due to high competition from applicants. I doubt some dodgy applicant with dubious credentials would get in at either, let alone waste the opportunity of a prestigious qualification by disappearing.

the no pets clause needs taking up by an animal rehoming charity, as it impacts on their chances to get animals rehomed. Anyone got a good contact in that area?

I have no choice but to live like that, which I think is the point of the thread and the source of the anger!!!! I won't waste my hard earned savings on a deposit for a depreciating asset but I want to get on with my life in the meantime. Something I think you champion, Bruce A pet is important to me - I'd already gone a decade+ without one - and getting on with my life means having some comforts that renting by the contract may not offer. For some, that may be painting over the magnolia, for others it may be keeping a dismantled motorbike as a project in the back garden/garage. Whatever, but for me its a true creature comfort - having an indoor ex-rescue cat. Besides, hes always pleased to see me, has better personal hygene and toilet behaviour than many of my work colleagues and never moans at home like the wife might ever so occasionally do!!! You draw an analogy of a rental contract to a business contract, but the standard of behaviour and customer service in the rental industry does in no way match that of business. Contracts are handed out by untrained unregulated chancer letting agents ever so keen to tag on charges and renege on promises with maintenance. Negotiating is a slow process with these cowboys (it will need the approval of the chief, not the indian) and in that time someone else may show up and take the flat at full asking instead. Remember you are in a weak position when looking to rent a home as you clearly need shelter by a certain time and they offer the shelter. I also usually ask for a discount in rent and an improvement in flat white goods, using what angle I can find to exploit, and I dont want my negotiating position spoiled. They lie to me over speed and quality of their maintenance, I lie to them over having a pet (again the RSPCA should get this challenged if they want animals rehomed more often). I can easily live like this. I have legal quiet enjoyment of the flat - so they can only avoid a "breaking and entering" charge by doing so under an appointment time agreed with me with my supervision. The purpose of that inspection is primarily safety and maintenance. They have one lunch slot every 6/12 months and I prepare the cat for removal from the flat that morning. I pressurise the junior agent to get his boxes ticked and let me get back to my ever so important job. Pressurising someone in your own home is easy as humans still have a territorial instinct - you can take offence at something random and they will feel in the wrong and hurry along "how dare you look at my wifes belongings/diary/underwear, who do you think you are" etc (you control the territory). The problem here might be the type of property we are each renting. I rent small flats for me, the mrs and the cat at a price that maximises my savings opportunities for that deposit. These are typically administered by fly-by-night chancer letting agencies. I suspect you are a little more up-market Bruce and rent places with better agents who, as the contact is valued considerably higher, offer a more personal service.