Leeds-Bozz

Afraid I can't offer statistics off hand on non secured debt (sold all my Japan books when I left in 03) but it was and still is a cash economy. So if you are talking credit cards etc gut instinct I would say 'no'. I can offer personal experience on credit cards: Well, lets just say credit cards weren't / aren't a big deal in Japan - I had one (after many years of begging) and they function strictly as charge cards. When you buy an item you can choose to pay for it in one wedge - (and the shop assistant asks you: "ikkatsubarai?")or spread it over a number of months you answer "XXgatsubarai" (over xx payments). Essentially you choose the credit term (with daft interest rate to boot) when you make the purchase. Always do an ikkatsubarai and never pay a penny in interest - or pay for your sofa over 2 years, you make the choice.

Browsing the monthly reports from Ruffer I found this interesting bit on gold: I had only vaguely heard of Bernanke but found the text of his (long) speech here: http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/sp...121/default.htm Interesting reading....comments from those more knowledgeable than myself?

..have noticed that there are a helluva lot of boards up all around Headingley and Hyde Park (Leeds). May just be leaving them up; but I seem to remember there was an agreement thrashed out to take them down.. if they are empty stock there are loads of voids. Now Unipol (University backed private agency) reckons in 2006-7 around 17% of student stock will be surplus!!! I'dlove it if these BTL'rs lost their shirts - these people have left a nice area a ghetto, with no shops left just takeaways, schools closing the community totally in tatters. Even a slight realignment would be good. Good site worth perusing if you have time: http://www.healheadingley.org.uk/main.htm Interesting notes on the cycle: http://www.healheadingley.org.uk/epidemic/pays.htm Fust look at the lengths BTL scum will go to : Sharp practice around here Examples of pressure and sharp practice, to get families out, have been: * Offering cash purchase, forcing owner-occupiers out of the market * The night before the sale goes through, the landlord says "We're dropping the price" * Saying "Its for my son who's getting married"...... * Leafleting areas asking for properties, promising sales "within a week" * Pressuring old people to leave. * Pretending to be owner occupiers by going round with wife and children..... * Agreeing to abide by the seller's conditions of no letting and then ...

Utterly sick. This was even better than the burger bar last week. Where do these people get their ideas from? Liek there aren't any other burger bars or hairdressers... there are three around the corner from me and I'm sure they are all 'unique concepts'... BTW Wasn't the bloke in the see through box the husband of woman numpty? And wasn't man numpty's wife seen weeping with joy as he re-mortgaged their house for the nth time and secured the property. These will be period pieces in the future, classics.

Depends on how much you go out. I earn a bit more and rent for a bit less and save a lot - but then I live very frugally. Try renting somewhere that includes any of water rates, council tax etc; there are some out there and this will free up more cash.

Slightly off at a tangnet but what is a good account for CHF, I see plenty of Euro and USD accounts offshore, but hardly anything for the CHF without massive amounts being required.. any thoughts? I liked the look of Bank of Scotland, but no branches round here.

I'm hoping so, this fund rode out the last bear market. I liked the look of the breakdown of their portfolio; low US and UK exposure, lots of Japan; Swiss bonds and gold/mining. http://www.ruffer.co.uk/funds/performance_update_rif.htm

This is taken from the monthly report of one of the funds I invest in - Ruffer total return. I think it is s pretty useful summary of where we are.. When the only things left to get excited about are potential restructuring stories in Germany and Japan, one senses that the last gasps of bullish oxygen are being sucked out of these markets. It sounds cynical, particularly given that we have investments in both Germany and Japan, but we have to focus on the fact that the key stimulus driving equity market performance over the last three years is being withdrawn. By instigating an era of ultra-cheap credit, the US Federal Reserve set in motion three simultaneous manias: the housing refinancing mania (US home owners locking into lower fixed rate mortgages and extracting equity from their homes), the leveraged finance mania (easy financial profits through the mechanism of leveraged, but relatively safe, speculation), and then through US dollar weakness, the reflation mania (monetary stimulation by the authorities of economies whose currencies were fixed to the US dollar, eg China). In turn, these manias spawned housing and commodity price bubbles globally. Now, as interest rates are being normalised, corrective mechanisms are working their way into distorted systems. Already pressures on corporate profit margins are starting to emerge, and it isn’t difficult to see why. Higher energy and raw material prices are starting to filter through from expiring hedging policies. Labour costs, whether in the form of wages, pension costs or bonus compensation, are rising. The flattening yield curve is reducing ‘costless’ carry trade profits which have permeated the corporate sector in the context of low nominal interest rates, an upward-sloping US yield curve which a transparent Federal Reserve is ‘guaranteeing’. Pricing power remains elusive for products exposed to increased global capacity. Finally, the revaluation of the Chinese Renminbi and a change in its future management tied to a basket of currencies, rather than just the dollar, implies potential cost pressure for manufactured goods. Rather than let lower margins impact corporate return on equity, US corporations are responding by releveraging their balance sheets through bank loans (loan growth is now 13%, its highest level since 2000), corporate bonds or corporate activity (mergers and acquisitions, leveraged buy-outs). It is a rational response given that long term yields and corporate borrowing spreads have remained at historic lows in spite of rising short term interest rates. We believe the cost of capital is too low. This is supported by the proportion of new bond issuance in speculative grades being at a 25 year high, suggesting, if history is a reliable guide, that the quality of credit is at a generational low. Enterprises, which under normal credit conditions would not generate sufficient returns to survive, persist. In the first instance, excess capacity causes the return on capital employed to converge on the cost of capital, lowering returns for all participants. In the second, any normalisation in the pricing of credit leads to sharply increasing default rates. This highlights America’s fragility. US consumers, US speculators, US government, and, increasingly now, US corporations are saturated in cheap credit. As returns come under pressure, the quality of that credit will reassert itself, most likely in 2006. Given that the US external deficit is financed primarily by foreign private sector (as opposed to foreign central banks) demand for US corporate paper, any turn in the credit cycle will quickly become a dollar problem. The sequence of events from rising credit spreads - to falling dollar - to falling equity markets could be sharp as we saw in April’s GM/Ford debacle. So, while we can distract ourselves in Japan and Germany, we shouldn’t take our eye off the real master of these markets: US credit quality.

I was only half watching the news when this came on and wasn't sure of the context - was he talking in terms of 'global' factors so not specifically mentioning this UK prices as a bubble?

Agree on the domestic story. Have been drip-feeding small amounts into a domestic oriented fund for a few months into my ISA and pension. Still not bold enough to go into more than this at the moment as I'm sure a global slowdown will filter through..

Q'ing halfway up the sliproad up at Asda in Pudsey just now. I admit I do not understand peoples behaviour sometimes. Do people honestly think there will be nothing left at the weekend or something?

'Trendy' Hendys. Everything that is wrong with Leeds at the moment summed up. When the revolution comes... Despite their palsy 'we're refreshingly honest' patter, looking up all the addresses on Nethouseprices will show you that all their stock is absolutely and almost criminally overvalued.

One on the end of my road is up on rightmove; but no board outside. Perhaps as its a close they think there is no point advertising it traditionally.

That Jupiter interests me too, but not sure I have the the stomach for the lows.. Will have a look at that Barings one.

Yes this is very irritating. I have looked in vain for a fund that excludes property bubble countries, has less France and more Germany, and a dash of 'new' Europe. I haven't found it yet.. though I quite like the look of the Ruffer European fund.

Eeeexxelllenttt.....

It will be Japan in 2008 for me if nothing happens.

Is this chap having a David Icke turn? I mean there's crashes and crashes.

I've already shifted my savings out of Yorkshire's e-savings into B&Bingley's, now thats been cut. Of they will cut it again as soon as the rates actually are cut. Have opened ICICI but frankly the interest lost by switching around continually is losing me money too...

Actually, I thought that the average FTB might read it and panic 'Need to get on the ladder at all costs', that was my worry. I read it and think 'can only go one way from here but I suppose I am in the minority..

Good article, front page too!

Do you have a link to it on the web anywhere? I'd love to see this 25K kitchen, must really be something!

Job losses st Asda head offices announced today - many managerial jobs in the Leeds head office. This willno doubt dent confidence...

They are likely indoctrinated as soon as they join the company. Had a similar creep wittering on at me when I was opening one of their 7% savings accounts. Property best thing ever yadda yadda usual twaddle..first place went up bought Y now worth X. Funny thing was he admitted to being the mortgage guy but was doing the 'greeting' thing...I said if prices go down to reasonable levels he might have more to do!

Slightly wrong, twice the size, half the inhabitable land mass. There are so many structural differences between our economic systems, tax socially and otherwise... For me the pertinent things are: Firstly, people re-build there homes every generation, a hundred year old home is almostunthinkable to a Japanese, a 30 year old house is considered on the way out. (has to do with they way they build, earthquakes etc.) In that respect Houses are more like cars in this country - constantly depreciating assets - its the land that is crucial and valuable. So thats why flats keep going down - and the makers keep offering luxury upon luxury to tempt buyers into buying 'new' as car manuafacturers convince us to buy new cars here. Also, the reason people hold onto their cash in 0.0125% interest accounts or in cash is: 1) You are almost as likely to earn interest on your money by keeping it under your mattress as you are in a bank, and its probably safer. 2) People have been acutely aware of the ageing population for two decades and have absolutely no faith in the state to provide for them in old age. A pensions crisis (sound familiar?) 3) There is no decent welfare state; even with state health insurance you have to pay 30% of all costs great for a cold bad for cancer.