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House Price Crash Forum

NJP

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About NJP

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  • Location
    Bristol
  • About Me
    Making my landlady richer; watching house prices increase faster than I can save a deposit.
  1. The beariest of bears say that on average, the falls will probably be less than 50%, just as they were in the last crash. However, where properties have been rising at ridiculous rates, such as 100% in a year (on average, London HPI is much lower than that), then I think that prices could easily fall by a lot more. New build flats and the Belfast market are just two examples of rapid rises being followed by rapid falls at the moment.
  2. IIRC, it's the difference in percentage, e.g. -50 means 25% reporting rises, 75% reporting falls, so -100 is the minimum.
  3. You're right. I was an a relatively low income until I was in my 30s, and thought that once I earned over about £35k I'd be "well off". Well, I've reached that point now, and I earn a lot more than my parents ever did, but in real terms I'm certainly no better off than they were. Don't get me wrong - I'm not struggling to get by, but I'm not earning the kind of money that means I do my shopping in Waitrose, drive a Mercedes or holiday the the Seychelles, believe me!
  4. That would mean that flats were more expensive than detached houses 7 years ago. Sounds like the article is based on flawed figures to me.
  5. If we ignore population, then there are many potential candidates for Britain's second city. How about Liverpool, Cardiff, Edinburgh or Glasgow? Historically speaking, Canterbury, York and Bristol have been pretty strong contenders, too. Let's face it, neither Manchester nor Birmingham would win any beauty contents. Whichever way you look at it, though, (metropolitan county or city council boundaries), Birmingham is the UK's second city by population and at least that's an objective, rather than subjective measure.
  6. I hope you're right. It's a worst-case scenario, but I think it's possible, due to the strange BTL sentiment described above. Not necessarily. We could see 2 or 3 more years of 12-15% increases, and I definitely think the London market still has some mileage left in it, which will bias the national average, too. I thought we'd seen prices rise about as far as they could go in 2003, but I hadn't taken into account to what lengths people would go to to jump on the property bandwagon.
  7. I agree. I think we could still see prices rise by another 30-40% unfortunately, but I also think that if that happened, there would be no way we'd avoid a crash.
  8. Save your typing. The BBC will just report the year-on-year figure anyway.
  9. I'd agree with 2.9% / hold too. I think a rise this month really might change sentiment to the housing market. Things have been rather bearish over the last few weeks, so I'm expecting some good news for the bulls.
  10. That would be the same 20 years ago where out-of-control prices increases meant that a crash was just around the corner, but the VIs didn't see it coming?
  11. This is the problem. We're seeing a record number of BTL investors getting into the market at a time when the business model is running out of steam. And every time we see prices increase above inflation, it gets harder to make the figures add up. I run a business with 14 employees, and I'd hate to see what the effect of a full-scale housing market crash would have on the economy and our jobs, so it worries me greatly that we're approaching the point of no-return. How much more can house prices rise before anyone with any sense will no longer be prepared to buy, and those who don't have any sense can no longer afford it? I estimate that an increase of 40% (in real terms) is an absolute maximum, and the reality is probably much lower.
  12. This is based on my own sums for various types of property around various parts of the country. Based on this, London appears to be one of the few places I've found where rents generally seem to comfortably cover an IO mortgage. I'm not coming at this from an anti-BTL stance. If I were able to find what I considered to be a good BTL investment, I'd take my money out of shares and invest it in property instead. As far as using someone else's money to buy your assets, you'd have to find a property where the rent covers a repayment mortgage. If you do know of an area with properties like this, and you're willing to share the information, please let me know.
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