"we're Already In A Depression Not A Recession And We'll *recover* In 2025"

[Converted Lurker]

Thinks DOW will take this long to get back to 14,000 I wonder if a leading HPC *spokesman* might want to move his "15,000 forecast" out just a touch

Market ticker forumite quote: The ONLY way we'll have the DOW at 14k again - EVER - is if we follow Zimbabwe. That Could Happen.

http://www.tickerforum.org/cgi-ticker/akcs-www?post=74026

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=950838437&play=1

edit addition of video link:

Edited December 5, 2008 by Converted Lurker

[Wol]

Thinks DOW will take this long to get back to 14,000 I wonder if a leading HPC *spokesman* might want to move his "15,000 forecast" out just a touch

Liked this one, CL.

[MOP]

Thinks DOW will take this long to get back to 14,000 I wonder if a leading HPC *spokesman* might want to move his "15,000 forecast" out just a touch

Market ticker forumite quote: The ONLY way we'll have the DOW at 14k again - EVER - is if we follow Zimbabwe. That Could Happen.

http://www.tickerforum.org/cgi-ticker/akcs-www?post=74026

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=950838437&play=1

edit addition of video link:

Good clip. I'm still not sure about Hugh, but I can't argue with him here. I am a bit shocked that he actually said this on tv. I think he must be the first tv person to say that we are already in a depression.

[MSWHPC]

Thinks DOW will take this long to get back to 14,000 I wonder if a leading HPC *spokesman* might want to move his "15,000 forecast" out just a touch

Market ticker forumite quote: The ONLY way we'll have the DOW at 14k again - EVER - is if we follow Zimbabwe. That Could Happen.

http://www.tickerforum.org/cgi-ticker/akcs-www?post=74026

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=950838437&play=1

edit addition of video link:

well he didnt say when!

[huw]

Good clip. I'm still not sure about Hugh, but I can't argue with him here. I am a bit shocked that he actually said this on tv. I think he must be the first tv person to say that we are already in a depression.

... and the way he kind of covered his mouth as he said it

[Guest Steve Cook]

... and the way he kind of covered his mouth as he said it

Yep, a funny guy

[MOP]

What are the exact prerequisites for a depression? Surely we are not there just yet?

Edited December 5, 2008 by Master Of Puppets

[Converted Lurker]

Good clip. I'm still not sure about Hugh, but I can't argue with him here. I am a bit shocked that he actually said this on tv. I think he must be the first tv person to say that we are already in a depression.

there's going to have to be new word for depression, it's just so 1930's, let's just leave it to Mandleson to come up with it.

[Converted Lurker]

What are the exact prerequisites for a depression? Surely we are not there just yet?

yep I've asked this before, there is no; "two months of negative growth" type official description as there is with a recession. Guess it's just (as mentioned on another thread earlier) when it al goes FUBAR - fukced up beyond all recognition.

[Minderbinder]

yep I've asked this before, there is no; "two months of negative growth" type official description as there is with a recession. Guess it's just (as mentioned on another thread earlier) when it al goes FUBAR - fukced up beyond all recognition.

I think "recession" is a relatively modern word. Before it became widely used, every economic contraction was described as a depression.

[jammo]

Is it time to call a Depression? We are facing an unprecidented global economic downturn. Even by the most optimistic forecasters, things are as bad as they have ever been in living memory. It no longer makes sense to keep any money in banks, what's 2% worth on savings? FFS, we all know CPI is way above that - 35% energy increases, anyone? Loaf of bread double what it was 12 months ago, come on. Banks are for losers. Houses are not much better, and nothing our b*star*d government says can ever be believed. At best, I factor in all government statistics at 1:2, i.e. they say a rescue package will cost 1 trillion, I know for a fact that it will be at LEAST 2 trillion. violent crime has halved? I know it has doubled, it's spin, it's shyt. They tell me 3 million will be unemployed soon, k, so that means at least 6 million are to be sacked. NuLabour have lied so much to me that I can see these real figures peaking through, and it's always at least twice as bad as the shifty freakers say. So by this measure, I say we're entering a depression, and our incontinent government knows full well we are as well. Oh and whenever Brown says he's going to do all he can to save us, all I hear is, our cu**ing pm is going to make things so much the worse for us, we'll rue the day we took the micky out of his facial psycho ticks. Joke's on us at the end of the day.

[MOP]

there's going to have to be new word for depression, it's just so 1930's, let's just leave it to Mandleson to come up with it.

A global economic buggering is what i would call it. I think this will go beyond even his spinning ability.

[Converted Lurker]

A global economic buggering is what i would call it. I think this will go beyond even his spinning ability.

actually, let's not go there were Mandy is concerned. <shudders>

Edited December 5, 2008 by Converted Lurker

[huw]

I think "recession" is a relatively modern word. Before it became widely used, every economic contraction was described as a depression.

Wikipedia has this:

A proposed definition for depression is a sustained recessionary period in which the population is forced to dispose of tangible assets to fund every day living, as was seen in the US and in Germany in the 1930s.

I quite like the concreteness of the above: it gets you where you live, as it were.

[MOP]

actually, let's not go there were Mandy is concerned. <shudders>

Schiff seems to be saying we should let the whole thing go to shit and the sooner the better. No point dragging it out anymore:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TaoXcRhOd5w

[SNACR]

I'm just making this up, but if depression refers to massively depressed demand and given we've got this in housing, automotive, retail, scrap metals, commodities etc. I'd have thought we're in one.

[Saving For a Space Ship]

there's going to have to be new word for depression, it's just so 1930's, let's just leave it to Mandleson to come up with it.

Perhaps Mandleson ought to put his name to it, and call it a 'Mandepression' 'Mandypression' or 'Mandlpression'

This is the same Hugh who presented that tv prog abount finance the other month. Doesn't he own or run a Hedge fund?

So what does he have to gain for his hedge fund by being uber-doomer & calling a depression ?

I read somewhere that one definition of a depression was a 10% drop in gdp.

Edited December 5, 2008 by Saving For a Space Ship

[the_austrian]

Why does Hugh Hendry hate freedom?

[MOP]

Perhaps Mandleson ought to put his name to it, and call it a 'Mandepression' 'Mandypression' or 'Mandlpression'

This is the same Hugh who presented that tv prog abount finance the other month. Doesn't he own or run a Hedge fund?

So what does he have to gain for his hedge fund by being uber-doomer & calling a depression ?

I read somewhere that one definition of a depression was a 10% drop in gdp.

Maybe he is just a nice guy. I don't know. I think the other definition of "having to sell all your tangible assets to live from day to day" is a rather good one. That may not be far off with the state things are in.

[huw]

This is the same Hugh who presented that tv prog abount finance the other month. Doesn't he own or run a Hedge fund?

So what does he have to gain for his hedge fund by being uber-doomer & calling a depression ?

No reason why a proper Hedge Fund shouldn't make money in tricky market conditions -- as Hendry seems to have been doing up to now.

[Compounded]

Schiff seems to be saying we should let the whole thing go to shit and the sooner the better. No point dragging it out anymore:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TaoXcRhOd5w

Putting it off for a bit or even just seeming to fix it gives Gordy a chance to win the election.

That is the point.

[Quagmire]

I think when they start talking about "austerity" like in Argentina, its time to call a depression.

[IMHAL]

I think when they start talking about "austerity" like in Argentina, its time to call a depression.

They will start talking about 'austerity' after they have turned on the printing presses and found that they have totally screwed up the economy, people have lost their life savings, bread costs £20 a loaf, people are starving and cannot keep warm.

'Austerity' is the word used when there is nothing else they can do but to let it work itself out - the sad thing is that by printing they will have eradicated any savings in the process. They will have done the job of the terrorist for them.

HAL

[Guest Mr Parry]

Hendry may be right.

In the last month I've got rid of;

Landline

Orange mobile

AOL

Car and associated horrific costs

Sold most of my office stuff, big HP all-in-one, A3 printer etc

January sees the end of T-Mobile contract and bye-bye Blackberry.

All monthly outgoings cut to the bone.

I plan to be a man of straw.

[Wad]

Maybe he is just a nice guy. I don't know. I think the other definition of "having to sell all your tangible assets to live from day to day" is a rather good one. That may not be far off with the state things are in.

That is what a lot of older people will have to start doing in the next few months because their savings are not earning any interest and in any case most have been digging in to their savings capital for the last two years because inflation has outstripped income.

The only asset they have to sell in most cases is their house. What ensues is a fire sale of assets as happned in the 1930s - that is unless Govt decides to directly support house prices by printing money and buying houses at 2007 asking prices. Dont laugh ... anything is possible. Nothing is impossible.

Edited December 5, 2008 by Wad