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House Price Crash Forum


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  1. There's loads of regulation. If there wasn't, I'd be out of work and I can tell you that I'm very very busy. Whether that regulation is effective is another question. It certainly isn't free and you're going to bear the cost of that one way or another unless you live in a cave in Montana. A cheaper way to get some of that regulation would be to let banks go bust. But that's cheaper, not for free. The price would show up in the cost of credit. This is where we're heading in the not too distant future. At the BBC, only Peston has any credible understanding of the banking industry.
  2. "I'd rather be a pariah in Brussels than have to feel ashamed before my children, who would be deeper in debt should I back raising the volume of funding in the EFSF bail-out mechanism" said Richard Sulik. Let's see that quote up on the BBC please.
  3. Slovakia says No. For now according to the Telegraph.
  4. Since the Coalition took over, everything has depended on growth. By now, we can be pretty certain that the BoE cannot create it with gilt purchases, and I'm pretty sure Osborne won't be able to do it by running a book on SME bonds, though I'd be happy to bet against the taxpayer. The only question left is, Can the Germans create it with 2tn euros? It'd be an interesting proposition. If not, the rating agencies know what lack of growth means for the UK and at some point next year will begin to drop it from AAA to about A+. I don't think it will take very long, 12 months maybe. I think the BoE would print more money into this. However, the effect of that on the gilts market and the pound is going to be er, very interesting, given that UK plc is in hock for over 2.2tn GBP (and rising) all told. It's all about your ability to service your debt, for some value of "servicing" not equal to "printing". This is my "base case", not some deep-seated belief. Still, it's forcing me to make some difficult personal choices at an age at which I once hoped I wouldn't care so much.
  5. Shopping is a more enjoyable way of digging holes and filling them in. Except at Lakeside.
  6. The Coalition government and BoE are relying on growth to fill a £100bn hole in the budget. They need growth to be nearly 2% this year and nearly 3% for the next three years to have a decent chance of avoiding some kind of debt deflation. I'd put their chances at less than 10%. I think the market is going to spot this fairly soon - certainly before end of 2012 and much sooner if, as looks increasingly likely, lending dries up across about half of Europe. (Longer term, they have demographics and North Sea oil depletion stacked against them too.) Anyway, once that happens, the BoE will print currency in an attempt to hold down the short end of the yield curve and they might succeed for a while, depending on what's going on in the rest of the world. I hope I'm wrong but I think anyone looking for rate rises is going to be disappointed. I think we're more likely to see gentle falls as a result of less lending and a rise in the cost of living.
  7. I only look every few months in Weybridge and I recognize about 1/3 from before Christmas. There seem to be more multi-agent too.
  8. Yes. Central banks have almost no control where that extra money goes. The people who need it most are usually the least creditworthy so it never gets to them. Instead, it ends up in stocks and commodities. You can see this in nearly all charts since 2008.
  9. What a monstrosity. Modern lines but traditional fittings. Flooring from Topps Tiles. Classic colours in some rooms, magnolia in others. And if you're going to have a fridge that size, why not just install a cold room. Paging Katie Price.
  10. It's a deflationary event. You're talking about a reaction to it. It doesn't matter what the money supply is if you cannot access it because you belong to a generation that starts with less than nothing, or have no means to service it. Just ask the nearest FTB.
  11. The retirement age will be increased until only as many people as the state can afford to pay live long enough to collect it. What the state can afford to pay will be determined by the votes of the next generation. When this happens, retirees will be forced to liquidate their assets on a massive scale. Japan is about to begin doing this in its domestic bond market. Edit to add: This will be a highly deflationary event.
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