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HOLA441
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HOLA442
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HOLA443
Posted
Peter Rollings, chief executive of estate agent Marsh & Parsons, dismissed March's increase in lending as 'wholly artificial' as, he said, it was driven by the stampede of first-time buyers hoping to beat the stamp duty deadline rather than any sustained loosening of lending criteria.

He said that in fact the opposite was happening: 'After the peak in the mortgage market earlier in the year, we are facing the prospect of a trough as lenders tighten criteria and retreat from higher LTV lending - a factor that has taken its toll on buyer activity and house prices outside prime parts of London in the last month.

All ponzis collapse when starved of new entrants and the UK housing market is no different.

I would also take issue with this:

'However, if lending follows the same pattern as after previous stamp duty concessions, we will likely see a drop in activity in the next few months.'

Which implies things will bounce back in a couple of months. The fact is that after the first SD holiday ended (Dec 2009), there was only a period of three months before the FTB SD holiday begun (March 2010), so of course things picked up again. There hasn't yet been a chance to see what the full effects of pulling one of the (major) artificial supports will be - hopefully now we'll find out.

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HOLA444
Posted

Why would you even worry about stamp duty as a first time buyer as no one should pay the asking price anyway, unless it is a true reflection and even then you try knock a few percent off .Are people really that stupid to rush in and purchase a property to beat a stamp a duty holiday in a falling market .

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HOLA445
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HOLA446
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HOLA447
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HOLA448
Posted

Who wants to take this question?!

Me.

Yes, unfortunately some people are that stupid. They were with the first stamp duty holiday, the FTB only holiday and they likely will be with any subsequent stamp duty holiday as I'm sure our grubberment has noted.

Perhaps these people aren't aware that house sales typically achieve less than the asking price - around 93% currently, according to Hometrack (see link) - so they see any sort of a discount on the asking price as a bargain worth taking full advantage of:

http://www.hometrack.co.uk/our-insight/monthly-national-house-price-survey/house-prices-up-for-second-month-in-a-row

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HOLA449
Posted

Me.

Yes, unfortunately some people are that stupid. They were with the first stamp duty holiday, the FTB only holiday and they likely will be with any subsequent stamp duty holiday as I'm sure our grubberment has noted.

Perhaps these people aren't aware that house sales typically achieve less than the asking price - around 93% currently, according to Hometrack (see link) - so they see any sort of a discount on the asking price as a bargain worth taking full advantage of:

http://www.hometrack.co.uk/our-insight/monthly-national-house-price-survey/house-prices-up-for-second-month-in-a-row

Interesting figure - thanks for posting.

We've spoken of the differential between Rightmove and Landreg|Haliwide as a 'delusion index'. That 93% tells us how much of that differential is not in fact delusion but haggling-space.

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HOLA4410
Posted

Interesting figure - thanks for posting.

We've spoken of the differential between Rightmove and Landreg|Haliwide as a 'delusion index'. That 93% tells us how much of that differential is not in fact delusion but haggling-space.

Yes, it was 90% a few months ago but has been slowly creeping up. Of course, that's 93% on average, I'm sure an informed HPC-er will do rather better than that :)

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