Mpc 9-0 Vote

[I Told You So]

BoE voted 9-0 for steady rates in October

Wed Oct 19, 2005 9:30 AM BST

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LONDON, Oct 20 (Reuters) - All nine members of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee voted to keep interest rates at 4.5 percent this month, not even discussing arguments for a cut, minutes of the Oct. 5 and 6 meeting showed on Wednesday.

Analysts had predicted the 9-0 vote but there had been a suspicion that at least a few members would have presented a case for cutting borrowing costs given evidence the economy was still sluggish.

But the minutes revealed no such discussion despite the fact that some members thought the downside risks to demand had increased. This is likely to scale back even further expectations of a repeat of August's quarter-point rate cut before the end of the year.

The minutes said that on balance the short-term prospects for growth and prices were little changed from its August Inflation Report and the MPC would have more time to assess the demand and supply outlook when it prepared its next set of forecasts in November.

MPC members are clearly worried by the impact of high oil prices, saying that while there had been little sign of second round effects, there was no room for complacency.

"If such effects were to take hold, the Committee would need to run a tighter monetary policy than would otherwise have been the case," the minutes said.

The minutes said that while CPI inflation was likely to increase in the short-term, the energy effect would likely fade by year-end as long as oil prices did not rise any further.

Output growth, the minutes noted, continued to be subdued but official data may be exaggerating its weakness as business surveys were more upbeat on the service sector.

The MPC noted that Q2 consumption growth had been revised up but remained a little weaker than what it had envisaged in August.

What have all those rate cut Pr*cks got tos say now

[Sledgehead]

... and why does it take a 17th Aug 04 member to start a topic on this? Why no replies? Sudden loss of interest in MPC minutes and interest rates? C'mon all you new members! You know who you are: you're the ones who slag off the old hands for posting the odd "awooga" or having a bit of a laugh. Time to pull your weight. We old lags need to take the weight off our bones.

(and before you get all pally with me ITS, do remember I am at least a few minutes more senior than you )

[mbga9pgf]

... and why does it take a 17th Aug 04 member to start a topic on this? Why no replies? Sudden loss of interest in MPC minutes and interest rates? C'mon all you new members! You know who you are: you're the ones who slag off the old hands for posting the odd "awooga" or having a bit of a laugh. Time to pull your weight. We old lags need to take the weight off our bones.

(and before you get all pally with me ITS, do remember I am at least a few minutes more senior than you )

Check this one out!!! Ftse is down 1.24% already!!!!

Belgium Bel 20 -31.97 -0.97% 3,257.48 10/19 11:55am

Europe DJ Stoxx -35.35 -1.11% 3,143.06 10/19 11:55am

Europe Euronext 100 -10.09 -1.33% 747.68 10/19 11:55am

Europe Euronext 150 -28.64 -2.19% 1,280.39 10/19 11:55am

France CAC -60.38 -1.35% 4,400.76 10/19 11:55am

France SBF 80 -106.65 -2.27% 4,600.54 10/19 11:55am

France SBF 120 -47.41 -1.48% 3,156.09 10/19 11:55am

Germany DAX -81.43 -1.65% 4,865.75 10/19 11:55am

Germany MDAX -142.50 -2.09% 6,663.40 10/19 11:55am

Germany TECDAX -15.52 -2.69% 562.50 10/19 11:55am

Netherlands AEX -4.54 -1.15% 389.38 10/19 11:55am

Norway BRIX -2.38 -0.06% 3,682.15 10/18 12:00am

Norway OSE Industry -11.89 -0.71% 245.05 10/19 11:55am

Sweden OMX -10.20 -1.17% 859.86 10/19 11:55am

Sweden OMSX All Share -0.76 -0.28% 271.91 10/18 12:00am

UK FTSE 100 -65.50 -1.24% 5,198.40 10/19 10:55am

UK FTSE All Shares -36.11 -1.37% 2,601.38 10/19 10:55am

UK FTSE Eurotop -29.95 -1.16% 2,561.47 10/19 10:55am

UK FTSE Techmark -26.30 -2.15% 1,198.09 10/19 10:55am

Americas

Index Change %Change Level Last Update *

Canada TSE 300 -208.35 -1.97% 10,345.09 10/18 12:00am

Canada CDNX -27.94 -1.35% 2,035.21 10/18 12:00am

Canada S&P/TSX 60 -12.52 -2.11% 582.04 10/18 12:00am

As are ALL the international markets!!

[Nomadd]

Check this one out!!! Ftse is down 1.24% already!!!!

So not quite the 'crash' the subtitle of this thread was implying, then.

...And I'd still rather keep some of my cash riding on the FTSE for the next 5-10 years than in UK property.

Nomadd

[billy-g]

Riiiight...ooo, 1.24%...absolutely nothing though do with the traditional October sell, and the fact that a lot of the footsie has just went ex-div.

Some crash

As for the rate freeze....fanbloodytastic, 9-0 unanimous. I can hear the gnashing of teeth from here!

[sign_of_the_times]

Riiiight...ooo, 1.24%...absolutely nothing though do with the traditional October sell, and the fact that a lot of the footsie has just went ex-div.

Some crash

As for the rate freeze....fanbloodytastic, 9-0 unanimous. I can hear the gnashing of teeth from here!

just gone below 5200

[billy-g]

Who cares if it goes below 5200, it will come back up; hell, thats a buying opportunity.

I remember getting my sanity questioned when I bought back in at 3200, so I cant get excited about a dip.

[FTBagain]

Riiiight...ooo, 1.24%...absolutely nothing though do with the traditional October sell, and the fact that a lot of the footsie has just went ex-div.

This with some extra push from increasingly bad economic news this could push the Oct sell into a significant loss. We are about 5.5% down on the high point and I don't think it is finished yet. Sadly I think <5000 is on the cards over the next few weeks.

I've sold out of my PEP / ISA. I will need the cash in the next 18 months or so.

Edited October 19, 2005 by FTBagain

[Sledgehead]

Riiiight...ooo, 1.24%...absolutely nothing though do with the traditional October sell, and the fact that a lot of the footsie has just went ex-div.

Some crash

point missed. This thread is not about the ftse, it's about the minutes

{Fall on ftse was due in part to minutes. Ex div was worth only 1.4 points (ftse down 67). International markets are suffereing from all sorts of crap (that is if you attach any significance to newsflow), such as :

Wilma (predicted not to hit oil, so oils down, called a cat 5 so other stocks down - whateva!)

18 year anniversary of Black Monday

Intel results spressuring tech heavy indices (DAX))

Refco after tremors

Resulys season starts in US, many banks today

Fed members opening traps today, have been talking up inflation}

As for the rate freeze....fanbloodytastic, 9-0 unanimous. I can hear the gnashing of teeth from here!

From minutes wrt inflationary effects:

"If such effects were to take hold, the Committee would need to run a tighter monetary policy than would otherwise have been the case," the minutes said

Edited October 19, 2005 by Sledgehead

[FTBagain]

Welcome to Black October!

With the BoE MPC now falling into line with the Fed, inflation is now a major driver on the markets. Inflation has been stoked by run away credit. It is pay back time. Throw in high oil prices and I think it is safe to say it is all down hill from here.

[Levy process]

Check this one out!!! Ftse is down 1.24% already!!!!

If the expected change in the market over a year is in the range plus or minus 15%, then the daily expected change is in the range of plus or minus 1%, isn't it? I don't think that counts as a "crash" does it?

[sign_of_the_times]

And inverseley what have all those idiots who are stupid enough to be saying rates would rise, have to say?

apalling1966

wish you hadn't called that rate cut in Nov now?

Edited October 19, 2005 by sign_of_the_times

[bubbleturbo]

If you listen next month, you may hear the rustle rustle of TTRTR getting the notes out of his wallet to pay the wager for the bet he will have lost to TTRIR.

Or maybe he will attempt to put it on his Visa.

Bet now, pay later.

[Smell the Fear]

If you listen next month, you may hear the rustle rustle of TTRTR getting the notes out of his wallet to pay the wager for the bet he will have lost to TTRIR.

Or maybe he will attempt to put it on his Visa.

Bet now, pay later.

MEW?