House Price Crash - Null & Void

[US Citizen]

When I first came across this site in what seems like many years ago, it was themed and forumed around a sudden crash in the price of housing. I have been reading and making posts on a whole range of economic and financial news, but I feel I need to take stock of where we are.

I have an interest in this site, because despite what people may say (call me a troll), or what I might do (call me scumbag), I believe there is plenty of money to made out of property developing. If you get your timing right you wait until the market crashes and at the bottom, if your smart enough to figure it out is where you start buying. You buy the best location, the maximum number of rooms and size of rooms you can for the lowest possible price. You then rent (I know BTL scummer), the properties out until the market peaks and then you sell for the maximum possible price.

Timing is everything and that is why so many people have gotton into trouble with the BTL market and property investment.

So I have put my cards on the table, this is my declaration of interest in this site and I have not other vested interest but to make money out of a greater fool than me.

Timing as I said is everything and the house price crash, has failed to produce any meaningful fruit. The falls have not been great enough and I do not foresee the crash happening. Instead there maybe stagnantcy as the wages and credit catch up with the current market (I foresee at least 10 -15 years) and quite frankly my money is better off just sticking in a savings account until I can now re-figure out where to put my money for a good rate of return.

The house price crash is over, the dream of a crashing housing market is fading dream and the government, bank of england and all the others are happy to keep the current price high, meanwhile locking out the long term investment types like myself.

I am not even 5% certain that any sort of crash will occur.

Edited October 28, 2009 by Rt. Hon. Lord Mandelson

[stuckmojo]

When I first came across this site in what seems like many years ago, it was themed and forumed around a sudden crash in the price of housing. I have been reading and making posts on a whole range of economic and financial news, but I feel I need to take stock of where we are.

I have an interest in this site, because despite what people may say (call me a troll), or what I might do (call me scumbag), I believe there is plenty of money to made out of property developing. If you get your timing right you wait until the market crashes and at the bottom, if your smart enough to figure it out is where you start buying. You buy the best location, the maximum number of rooms and size of rooms you can for the lowest possible price. You then rent (I know BTL scummer), the properties out until the market peaks and then you sell for the maximum possible price.

Timing is everything and that is why so many people have gotton into trouble with the BTL market and property investment.

So I have put my cards on the table, this is my declaration of interest in this site and I have not other vested interest but to make money out of a greater fool than me.

Timing as I said is everything and the house price crash, has failed to produce any meaningful fruit. The falls have not been great enough and I do not foresee the crash happening. Instead there maybe stagnantcy as the wages and credit catch up with the current market (I foresee at least 10 -15 years) and quite frankly my money is better off just sticking in a savings account until I can now re-figure out where to put my money for a good rate of return.

The house price crash is over, the dream of a crashing housing market is fading dream and the government, bank of england and all the others are happy to keep the current price high, meanwhile locking out the long term investment types like myself.

I am not only 5% certain that any sort of crash will occur.

Thanks Mandy, I'll bookmark this post and see if you are right.

I believe the HPC to have barely started. I agree with Government wanting to keep HPI going for obvious reasons. Will they succeed? No.

[US Citizen]

Thanks Mandy, I'll bookmark this post and see if you are right.

I believe the HPC to have barely started. I agree with Government wanting to keep HPI going for obvious reasons. Will they succeed? No.

I would so love not to be right on this occasion. Please do bookmark.

[MinceBalls]

I would so love not to be right on this occasion. Please do bookmark.

It's ironic that you could have called this just on the day when everyone else realises we are living in dream land and the next leg down begins. Could be perfect timing! Let's see.

[Barb E Dahl]

I would so love not to be right on this occasion. Please do bookmark.

Is that REALLY you!?

Anyway back to the HOUSE CRASH!!!!!

Edited October 28, 2009 by Moo!

[interestrateripoff]

The house price crash is over, the dream of a crashing housing market is fading dream and the government, bank of england and all the others are happy to keep the current price high, meanwhile locking out the long term investment types like myself.

I am not only 5% certain that any sort of crash will occur.

As noted above I don't think we've barely started.

Stagnation of prices may be what the govt is aiming for, I would bet the banks would take a stagnating market now if it was offered. Losses would be minimised.

QE has certainly helped stabilise house prices for the time being, however how the variables will interact now is anyone's guess. At the start of the year part of me felt that once QE started the bond vigilantes would strike, that hasn't happened. Instead the supposed free marketeers have gorged themselves on free money that's just been printed.

I did wonder at the time that QE could be welcomed the bankers and investers, and if the balance was correct a new economic paradigm could be created bailing out the risk takers. So far it appears that this is the case, the danger is that once the magic printing press is found greed takes over and they keep printing free money. If that happens we will end up like Zimbabwe, so far all the major economies are in the same boat and QE is cancelling itself out.

Will this stability remain, time will tell.

[US Citizen]

It's ironic that you could have called this just on the day when everyone else realises we are living in dream land and the next leg down begins. Could be perfect timing! Let's see.

I see little if no evidence of a housing crash, just the usual rubblings of little significance to the housing market. Like I said, I am highly in favour of a crash, if not for my reasons.

[Flatdog]

(SNIP)

So I have put my cards on the table, this is my declaration of interest in this site and I have not (sic) other vested interest but to make money out of a greater fool than me.

Therein lies the truth, isn't this what the HPC forum is all about ?

[US Citizen]

(SNIP)

Therein lies the truth, isn't this what the HPC forum is all about ?

Of course it is. We all have an intrest in wanting low house prices, mine is to make money down the line, other is to live in an affordable home. A benefit is a benefit. The motives behind it matter, not so much.

[abharrisson]

I see little if no evidence of a housing crash, just the usual rubblings of little significance to the housing market. Like I said, I am highly in favour of a crash, if not for my reasons.

I too thought we'd have a crash of "crash bang wallop" proportions, I was never in the 50% camp but thought there might be a good 35% over two years.... in many cases especially in one of my favoured stamping grounds... central london... we now seem to be back around 2007. I know especially in London where the exchange rate has quite a bit to do with things there are reasons for this.

While those who are comitted to a crash and a bigger second leg down are obviously not wrong I just can't side with that theory currently..... like the OP I believe we will have a correction in the earnings/prices ratio but it will be long and slow , I don't think we'll see a huge correction ( and overcorrection)....... if we do I shall celebrate and fill my boots.

Housing ownership these days is so much braoder than it used to be and the aspiration to own broader still and that coupled with the "need it now" mentality of society and the lowest interest rates for decades means I suspect that the lid will be firmly kept on the mega crash that many want to see. Banks equally are rapidly advancing their balance sheet re-building programmes and coupled with the beginings of life in the wholesale markets means financing may only get easier from here on it... throw in some of the divestments the eu will demand and competition in the mortgage market may increase further. Both the banks and the govt have a vested interest in slowing or capping any house price fall and have effectively achieved that so far...... I'm sure we'll have downs to come, but the correspoding ups will mean markets stay largely flat.

I see the downward pressures... recession, unemployment, govt debt, potential of inflation and interest rate rises..... and I see the need for a correction.... I just feel money talks and if the govt and the banks are willing to go to the effort then what we will see is a flatening of any downward pressure.

I'd be in a great position to profit from a crash , its just a pity its not going to happen....... look forward (if thats the word) to slugish housing market and anemic economic growth for quite a while ( meanwhile by the by we will see ever increasing energy and food costs). woopeeee.

[Stars]

Of course it is. We all have an intrest in wanting low house prices, mine is to make money down the line, other is to live in an affordable home. A benefit is a benefit. The motives behind it matter, not so much.

If you want house prices low and to stay low in order to live in a house, you are not asking for a benefit which as a logical consequence inflicts extra cost on someone else. I think (from what i read) you make a living by inflicting costs on people around you rather than being productive - so that sort of scenario is no use for you

Edited October 28, 2009 by Stars

[Flatdog]

Of course it is. We all have an intrest in wanting low house prices, mine is to make money down the line, other is to live in an affordable home. A benefit is a benefit. The motives behind it matter, not so much.

The interests that you describe are contrary, this forum serves to make people understand that they either have been, or are being, ripped off.

[US Citizen]

If you want house prices low and to stay low in order to live in a house, you are not asking for a benefit which as a logical consequence inflicts extra cost on someone else. I think (from what i read) you make a living by inflicting costs on people around you rather than being productive - so that sort of scenario is no use for you

Au contraire, I would like house prices to come from their current position of high and crash as far as possible, whereby I would purchase them and rent them out. I dont need a mortgage and so I am not leveraged. I would then want the house prices to rise and irresponsible lending come back into the system. I want the feckless programs on TV whereby people think they can buy property at a high price, give it a lick of paint ( ) and then sell on for £100,000 profit.

This is where I come in, I will sell the property at a vastly inflated price and take my investment gains.

Sorry if that sounds harsh, but its just business and I see you the property BTLers of late as my paycheque.

[US Citizen]

The interests that you describe are contrary, this forum serves to make people understand that they either have been, or are being, ripped off.

I agree with that. It is also a university of finance, economic, property, shares and credit. I have learnt more here in the last 2 years (to the sites credit), than I would have on a MBA.

I dont blame the mods for kicking me off, after my confession, I would prefer to still contribute, but if that isnt to be I will still return here daily but as a guest. This place is full of information and facts that I could have used in the past.

[Stars]

This is where I come in, I will sell the property at a vastly inflated price and take my investment gains.

Yep - you want to make money by inflicting costs on the productive rather than doing something usefull

I was just pointing out the distinction

[Dorkins]

The crash is still on, with all this 30% deposit business houses have never been further out of reach for FTBs than they are now and without FTBs there is no market to replace the old folks popping their clogs at the other end of the ladder. There are only so many parents willing and able to part with 30% of the price of a house (x2 if you have two kids) and sooner or later they will be exhausted, especially if this ridiculous stock market rally turns around and parents start to worry about their pensions. Without high LTV BTL is even deader. All this "prices are back to 2007 levels" business is just VI talk and silly asking prices, sold prices on the Land Registry are showing nothing like this, just a few % uptick since the low in Feb/March this year as the last of the dumb/desperate/don't-care-have-cash-will-buy money is pulled into the market. For London/SE, there might be one final round of City bonuses this year, but when the banks come begging for more bailouts next year it just can't happen - the public kitty is empty. Even QE will probably have to stop soon as inflation is on the rise again. The private sector is tanking. Public sector wages are being frozen. There is no more money. It has to end.

[US Citizen]

The crash is still on, with all this 30% deposit business houses have never been further out of reach for FTBs than they are now and without FTBs there is no market to replace the old folks popping their clogs at the other end of the ladder. There are only so many parents willing and able to part with 30% of the price of a house (x2 if you have two kids) and sooner or later they will be exhausted, especially if this ridiculous stock market rally turns around and parents start to worry about their pensions. Without high LTV BTL is even deader. All this "prices are back to 2007 levels" business is just VI talk and silly asking prices, sold prices on the Land Registry are showing nothing like this, just a few % uptick since the low in Feb/March this year as the last of the dumb/desperate/don't-care-have-cash-will-buy money is pulled into the market. For London/SE, there might be one final round of City bonuses this year, but when the banks come begging for more bailouts next year it just can't happen - the public kitty is empty. Even QE will probably have to stop soon as inflation is on the rise again. The private sector is tanking. Public sector wages are being frozen. There is no more money. It has to end.

I hope your right.

[abharrisson]

I hope your right.

But I fear he's not.

[fritzlange]

I agree with Dorkins. Virtually every economic indicator is negative except for the stock market and house prices (with no supply coming onto the market). Once QE eases the fall is inevitable. We will get our house price crash eventually, I just worry that it might be accompanied by a crash in everything else.

[eric pebble]

Of course it is. We all have an intrest in wanting low house prices, mine is to make money down the line, other is to live in an affordable home. A benefit is a benefit. The motives behind it matter, not so much.

Wrong, actually.

If everyone/significant numbers were to act as you intend - this WILL have EFFECT on market, in some way, to greater or lesser extent. Actions have relative effects. I cannot [and cannot be bothered to] predict the exact effect - but effect it would have. i.e. Skew effect.

E.g. Liar Loans had large effect of skewing prices. A surprising number of people didn't/still don't appear to realize/understand this.

[slurms mackenzie]

When I first came across this site in what seems like many years ago, it was themed and forumed around a sudden crash in the price of housing. I have been reading and making posts on a whole range of economic and financial news, but I feel I need to take stock of where we are.

I don't believe that to be so, parallels were always drawn with the 90's crash which wasn't sudden.

[munimula]

I don't believe that to be so, parallels were always drawn with the 90's crash which wasn't sudden.

Correct. Which is why, when the crash began in late 2007 I predicted the bottom of the market would be around 2016 but now I'm thinking that may be too early.

Patience fellow bears....

[Flatdog]

Correct. Which is why, when the crash began in late 2007 I predicted the bottom of the market would be around 2016 but now I'm thinking that may be too early.

Patience fellow bears....

By which time many of us bears will have ceased to be concerned about it all.

[Kazuya]

By which time many of us bears will have ceased to be concerned about it all.

I certainly wouldn't wait another 7 years for a market bottom.

[munimula]

By which time many of us bears will have ceased to be concerned about it all.

Totally, I barely visit this site anymore when I used to visit daily. To discuss house prices on a daily, weekly, even monthly basis is now pointless. I'm confident nominal house prices won't be rising over the next 5-10 years so at a minimum they will be falling in real terms over that period. But we may even see falls in nominal prices too. Either way a sensible man waits patiently on the sidelines of this market.