R K Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 (edited) Yes - my response was: Yep, good post. I've posted too. I'm perplexed by the complete lack of analysis on the rationale for and impact of a German exit. The problem is German economy completely out of line (and will be forever) with the south. Since Germany is in control she should stop hiding behind a euro weakened by the GIIPS, admit to her voters they've been lying about the benefits and exit. Then the BB can do wtf they want re inflation and the ECB can act as LOLR for F-GIIPS and so on, with an immediate relative devaluation of euro. German savers, quite rightly, lose their ill-gotten surpluses (asset write downs of euro denominated) and the ability to leverage off a GIIPS enabled depressed euro and ultra low yields, and the F-GIIPS can decide over a longer, less panicked timeframe whether they believe there are any 'benefits' to remaining in the smaller eurozone. Sequentional exits from a devalued euro will be far less painful in any event. Tbh, thoroughly fed up with the partial analysis of people like Wolf and the FT. They need to grow a pair and explain more forcefully (not least to their German readers!) why Germany/Merkel/Schauble is the 'problem' here. Edited May 18, 2012 by Banana Monarchy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 (edited) 'Feeling' a tradable bottom. http://bclund.com/?p...ormedbroker.com Do you 'feel' it? I don't. I do yep (crescendo of 'Grexit' talk - even to de la rue shares rising on drachma note printing. Apocalyptic articles like Wolf's abound). Difficult to read anyone not assuming Grexit soon. Interestingly can't find anyone assuming German exit soon, so that's my 'black swan' event. Already in, looking to add Edited May 18, 2012 by Banana Monarchy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 Soc gen up 3.25%. Lloy down 5.25%. Why? I missed the news that Lloy had suspended a couple of derivavtives traders in an investigation into LIBOR manipulation. Could that be it? A potential huge bill in litigation? (EDIT: Although rbs is down 3.4% too) The UK's largest mortgage lender going the way Santander - the UK's second largest mortgage lender? UK banks on ratings write downs? EU on short selling ban? Dunno......Soc Gen bank on support now too. It's all gone a little quiet. Politicians will settle this one way or t'other. Which isn't a reassuring endorsement when you listen to the bullsh1t spewing from Rehn's cake hole. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 h/t @faisalislam [/url] Athens News @AthensNewsEU . Boris Johnson to Athens News: “The euro was a project that greatly benefits the Germans and the Germans should pay for it” Tory turns communist. https://twitter.com/#%21/AthensNewsEU' rel="external nofollow"> Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 Perhaps Boris reads Pettis (it's clear Dave/Osborne don't) http://www.economonitor.com/blog/2012/05/europes-depressing-prospects-two-reasons-why-spain-will-leave-the-euro/ There are two reasons why I was and am fairly sure that Spain cannot stay in the euro (or, which amounts to the same thing, that Germany will leave the euro instead of Spain). The first has to do with the logic of Spain’s balance of payments position, and the second has to do with the internal dynamics that drive the process of financial crisis. To address the first, I would start by noting that thanks to excessively loose monetary policies driven primarily by German needs over the past decade, Spain has made itself wholly uncompetitive in the global markets and in so doing has run large current account deficits for nearly the entire past decade. Its fundamental problem, in other words, has been the process by which its savings rate has collapsed, its cost structure forced up, its debt levels soared, and a great deal of investment directed into projects, mostly real estate, that were not economically viable. As I have discussed often enough in previous issues of this newsletter, I think all of these problems are related and are the automatic consequences of the same set of policy distortions implemented in Spain and in Germany. 2 years beyond time for the denial in Berlin and Brussels to stop. They're dangerous idiots. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 [/url] DJ FX Trader @djfxtrader Meeting at White House, Hollande and Obama agree Greece should remain in euro Merkin and co being out maneuvred. Cough up Schauble. https://twitter.com/#%21/djfxtrader' rel="external nofollow"> Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Georgia O'Keeffe Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 (edited) Merkin and co being out maneuvred. Cough up Schauble. Hollandes just upset with Merkin bitch slapping her french poodle around the Red Carpet in Berlin? Edited May 18, 2012 by Georgia O'Keeffe Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scepticus Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 h/t @faisalislam Tory turns communist. Its the blonde tory syndrome (e.g. Heseltine). I'm blonde (but more stylishly so I like to think), and I'm a tory when it comes to the deficit and a socialist when it comes to monetary policy! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okaycuckoo Posted May 19, 2012 Share Posted May 19, 2012 Sorry Spuds. Contrary indicator? I prefer ... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ymuF7uG6wis Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pl1 Posted May 20, 2012 Share Posted May 20, 2012 Maybe time to update this semi-famous blog: http://brokershandsontheirfacesblog.tumblr.com/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted May 21, 2012 Share Posted May 21, 2012 Osborne's a rent boy? Flag this media Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted May 21, 2012 Share Posted May 21, 2012 #correctionism etc etc (couple of days old) http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/may/17/us-tariffs-chinese-solar-panels The Obama administration imposed heavy tariffs on Chinese solar panels on Thursday, after finding that China is flooding the market with government subsidised products.The preliminary decision, that China had dumped solar products on the US for less than the cost of manufacture, will result in tariffs of between 31% and 250% on Chinese imports. It was seen on Thursday as a mixed blessing. US solar panel makers, who brought the original complaint, are expected to benefit. But the tariffs, by forcing up prices, are expected to slow the adoption of solar power more generally. There were also fears the move could lead to a broader US-Chinese trade war. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okaycuckoo Posted May 21, 2012 Share Posted May 21, 2012 Very clear der spiegel article on Germany's eurobond dilemma: http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/government-analysis-euro-bonds-would-cost-germany-billions-a-781524.html No to inter-government agreement, two years for intra-EU treaty, domestic referendum can't be won. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted May 21, 2012 Share Posted May 21, 2012 (edited) You'll like this one.... http://www.telegraph...mmy-winner.html and this... Everybody who didn't think he was a t0sser already will do now (except 40,000 or so city traders) He prob. thought pretending to support an 'English' club owned by a a Russian billionaire would be good PR. Apparently he supports Villa. #t0sser Edited May 21, 2012 by Banana Monarchy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okaycuckoo Posted May 21, 2012 Share Posted May 21, 2012 Cameron: "Get in, my son!" Obama: "Touchdown?" Merkel: "... bubble bath lilac scent ein schokolad orange mmmm..." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted May 21, 2012 Share Posted May 21, 2012 (edited) Amusing f*ckedbook chart http://scharts.co/J8DFVS Mugged by a kid in a hoodie (and Bonzo, who apparently made $1.3billion) Edited May 21, 2012 by Banana Monarchy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted May 21, 2012 Share Posted May 21, 2012 [/url] Red Knight @redknighttrader Would Greek 'suspension' within Euro be #Hellastic ? #greece #euro Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crash Buyer Posted May 21, 2012 Share Posted May 21, 2012 (edited) Amusing f*ckedbook chart http://scharts.co/J8DFVS Mugged by a kid in a hoodie (and Bonzo, who apparently made $1.3billion) Nice to see the market show a clear verdict on 200 P/E vapour-stocks. Good luck with that sh*t, Suckerberg! EDIT: Disclosure - I don't have a Facepalm membership, although nearly everyone I meet seems to. Edited May 21, 2012 by Crash Buyer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 Nice to see the market show a clear verdict on 200 P/E vapour-stocks. Good luck with that sh*t, Suckerberg! EDIT: Disclosure - I don't have a Facepalm membership, although nearly everyone I meet seems to. Me neither. Though if I did I'd 'fwend' you. FTSE 5,370 then 5450 look like near-term targets on the long side. http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=UK%3AUKX&insttype=Index&freq=7&show=&time=18 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 Barclays warns investors away from buying its nat gas ETN (GAZ) h/t FTAV link http://climateerinvest.blogspot.co.uk/2012/05/barclays-warns-investors-away-from.html (for HAM) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 Can we create some kind of offline group? Me neither. Bloke of my age would have to be some kind of paedo I think. Tweet me up! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 Vanguard launches in uk.... http://monevator.com/vanguard-etfs-uk/ Cheers, worth keeping an eye on. They’re Irish domiciled, so you skip stamp duty. Counter-party banks?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 (edited) Me neither. Though if I did I'd 'fwend' you. FTSE 5,370 then 5450 look like near-term targets on the long side. http://bigcharts.mar...7&show=&time=18 gooo on my son......... Edited May 22, 2012 by Banana Monarchy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 [/url] Red Knight @redknighttrader Did IMF or Treasury reaction cause #ft to change headline from fiscal 'plan b' to #boe rate cuts/QE resumption? Osborne bumping MPC? #uk Did someone in the Treasury put a call in to Lionel Barber? Bizarre switcheroo from Osborne to King! #leveson Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pl1 Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 Me neither. Though if I did I'd 'fwend' you. FTSE 5,370 then 5450 look like near-term targets on the long side. http://bigcharts.mar...7&show=&time=18 It must be a housepricecrash thing. Must be the biggest collection of non suckerberg users on the Internet. Curios. Have you just felt a bottom Banana? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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