Aberdeen, Aspc Stats

[rookie]

....just trolling, eh?

How's that going for you?

Nothing to do with Trolling

I have as much right as you have to post on this "Discussion" forum

But does my point of view not suit your negative agenda? Does every post need to be doom and gloom?

You dont have any response to the queries I raised in last post no? hows waiting about for 10 years + for a house price crash that isnt going to come going for you?

[geneer]

Whens this Aberdeen house price crash due then?

Offshore construction market is going through the roof next 3 years minimum, All offshore companies are short staffed, rates / wages going though the roof also, followed by increase in Renewables work (Offshore wind farms planned UK Wide) and decommissioning work (UK / Norwegian sectors in North Sea)

So how long do we need to wait till the doom mongers are going to have to admit that as unfair as it is, there isnt going to be a house price crash

Fact Check Please. According to ASPC...

Aberdeen City Discrict.

City Centre.

Peak. £186377

Q1 2012. £177690.

-£8687

Bridge of Donn.

Peak. £198261

Q1 2012 £161775.

-£8687

Dyce.

Peak.£202182.

Q1 2012.£192461.

-£9721

Nigg/Cove

Peak. £197003.

Q1 2012. £169755

-£27248

Bucksburn.

Peak. £150220.

Q1 2012. £144704.

-£5516

Lower Deeside.

Peak. £452053.

Q1 2012. £299571.

-£152482 (ouch)

Kingswells.

Peak. £323028.

Q1 2012. £283422.

-£39606

Not as "immune" as you suggest.

You appear to be talking nonsense.

In the same manner as the bampots who claim "there hasn't been a house price crash" any where in the UK, because London stats are pulling up the average.

Context and analysis.

Edited July 31, 2012 by geneer

[Torryloonmadegood]

Rookie is right, those in Aberdeen working in oil and gas are enjoying a fair old boom, its back to 2007 on steroids !

Date rates up, sign on bonuses again, 10 calls a day from recruiters promising the earth etc its going to be busy for the next two years at least which is just magic.

Its no doubt difficult for those not in the industry on national pay scales but regardless of the desire for prices to drop theres still plenty of cash floating around at present.

I'd question the statistical basis of the figures above, how many houses in Lower Deeside were sold in Q1 - one cottage needing renovation or 20 family homes ?

Of the houses I'm aware my mates have sold recently - all went quickly, most within 4-5 weeks and at or over home report valuation, certainly none were hanging around or had to cut their price for a sale.

The last two budgets have created a real movement to freelance - PAYE is a mugs game to keep non-productive public service "non-workers" in "employment". High end houses are being supported but day rate guys but so are cheap flats with buy to let purchases through Ltd co's as pensions - this is going to continue with Aberdeen rents at records and negative interest at the bank.

Can't see a crash either to be honest.

[cashinmattress]

With £250 trillion extracted from the UKCS, and much of that through Scottish/Aberdonian territory, there sure isn't much to show off, in the oil capital of Europe.

Everything comes in cycles, yes, and this town is definitely not immune to them. [oil price ca. 1998]

However, there is 100% definitely NOT going to be another 80's, 90's, or 00's era E&P boom in the North Sea.

Fracking operations will keep things rolling, but most of that will be implemented subsea, keeping a lot of bodies on the beach with no job function; although I think that this rushed approach will end in tears, at least until all the wrinkles are ironed out, if indeed they can be.

The actual mechanics of liquefaction and transporting the gas is currently in development across many academic institutions, which is going to be a ship based technology, most likely driven by the small players wanting out of the BP forties pipeline hedgemon (if it works). Once again, not employing locals.

Finally, decommissioning of the sector will not carry the town at its current level, which is quite crap to be honest, not even close. Not even sure where the money is going to come from for that...

I bet there were a lot of silver miners in California, ca 1850 onwards that said the party would never end.

Oh, and to you Rookie, Hamish, or whatever your name is, get a life man. Your sums don't add up and your logic is flawed.

[rookie]

With £250 trillion extracted from the UKCS, and much of that through Scottish/Aberdonian territory, there sure isn't much to show off, in the oil capital of Europe.

Everything comes in cycles, yes, and this town is definitely not immune to them. [oil price ca. 1998]

However, there is 100% definitely NOT going to be another 80's, 90's, or 00's era E&P boom in the North Sea.

Fracking operations will keep things rolling, but most of that will be implemented subsea, keeping a lot of bodies on the beach with no job function; although I think that this rushed approach will end in tears, at least until all the wrinkles are ironed out, if indeed they can be.

The actual mechanics of liquefaction and transporting the gas is currently in development across many academic institutions, which is going to be a ship based technology, most likely driven by the small players wanting out of the BP forties pipeline hedgemon (if it works). Once again, not employing locals.

Finally, decommissioning of the sector will not carry the town at its current level, which is quite crap to be honest, not even close. Not even sure where the money is going to come from for that...

I bet there were a lot of silver miners in California, ca 1850 onwards that said the party would never end.

Oh, and to you Rookie, Hamish, or whatever your name is, get a life man. Your sums don't add up and your logic is flawed.

And to to you cash in the mattress

Get off the Prozac and get informed, go into any subsea construction companies office and ask how the next 5 years are looking

Your the one in the dark, you've obviously no idea what is going on in this city with your last post, your depressive posts are laughable

[Alba]

Seems to be a spring bounce in Aberdeen.

Lots of closing dates and under offers on ASPC.

What are you seeing?

[CGS]

Glad this thread is revived. I periodically swing by here to get a heads up so glad that Alba has kicked things into action.

I run an ASPC automatic notification on West End houses over £400k and there seems to be a drought of sorts. However, when the houses go online they are typically snapped up in under a month ( I am taking some examples in Cults/Bieldside here which is perhaps an unfair reflection of health elsewhere).

Decent 2 bedroom flats seem to be in demand by the BTL brigade from what I gather.

As for the state of the NE economy, I see very healthy signs of stability especially given the Budget Decomm. provisions. The amount of new business parks being constructed near Kingswells & the Airport is also a decent indicator of future confidence. I increasingly see signs of more globalisation too with the majors tapping into local talent but having them work on projects further afield. This has long been the case but I see more & more evidence. Expatriation also seems to be prolific again after the post 2007 cutbacks.

Another item of note :- http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-business-21792466

And another :- http://news.stv.tv/north/218338-kincorth-and-torry-academies-to-close-with-new-30m-school-at-calder-park/

As an aside, has anyone clapped eyes on that £2M house on North Deeside Road of late ? It's been demolished to make way for a new house after the owner reportedly waited some 2 years to get planning permission.

On a final note, it seems that Union Street is going from bad to worse. Payday lenders, Pound Shops, Sweet Shops, all seems to multiply. Sad to see but I guess we are all to blame in some respects. I also heard that Union Square may be expanding but I don't know if there is any truth in that....

Apologies for a slightly wandering multi-faceted post - just sharing some observations.....

[Alba]

Glad this thread is revived. I periodically swing by here to get a heads up so glad that Alba has kicked things into action.

I run an ASPC automatic notification on West End houses over £400k and there seems to be a drought of sorts. However, when the houses go online they are typically snapped up in under a month ( I am taking some examples in Cults/Bieldside here which is perhaps an unfair reflection of health elsewhere).

Decent 2 bedroom flats seem to be in demand by the BTL brigade from what I gather.

As for the state of the NE economy, I see very healthy signs of stability especially given the Budget Decomm. provisions. The amount of new business parks being constructed near Kingswells & the Airport is also a decent indicator of future confidence. I increasingly see signs of more globalisation too with the majors tapping into local talent but having them work on projects further afield. This has long been the case but I see more & more evidence. Expatriation also seems to be prolific again after the post 2007 cutbacks.

Another item of note :- http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-business-21792466

And another :- http://news.stv.tv/north/218338-kincorth-and-torry-academies-to-close-with-new-30m-school-at-calder-park/

As an aside, has anyone clapped eyes on that £2M house on North Deeside Road of late ? It's been demolished to make way for a new house after the owner reportedly waited some 2 years to get planning permission.

On a final note, it seems that Union Street is going from bad to worse. Payday lenders, Pound Shops, Sweet Shops, all seems to multiply. Sad to see but I guess we are all to blame in some respects. I also heard that Union Square may be expanding but I don't know if there is any truth in that....

Apologies for a slightly wandering multi-faceted post - just sharing some observations.....

Re Union Street. What a disaster! Of course this is not unique, it is happening all over the UK. However, I find it quite depressing, and Union Street looks particularly drab and uninviting in the winter months. The general appearance of the central area gets me so down at times that I often contemplate moving from Aberdeen to a more pleasant environment, if one still exists in the UK!

It is not just the type of shops. It is the state of the buildings. The chewing gum, litter, and cigarette ends etc. It is generally the harshness of the environment and the funneling of buses and heavy vehicles through the centre.

Then of course there are the chavs, beggars and so on.

Where has 40 years of so called oil wealth gone?

[ccc]

Where has 40 years of so called wealth gone ?

I think we all know the answer that. . .

[rookie]

2 Bed Flats in 2006 that were going for £100k your now looking at paying ~£140k or so, big jump

http://www-s.aspc.co.uk/cgi-bin/public/LiveProperty/306406?ID=FAPOJCBE#picture

http://www-s.aspc.co.uk/cgi-bin/public/LiveProperty/306152?ID=FAPOJCBE#picture

http://www-s.aspc.co.uk/cgi-bin/public/LiveProperty/303385?ID=FAPOJCBE#picture

Cant see the valuations going below the £100k mark for any other reason other than oil price crashing down under $30 a barrell for a sustained period of time, and all oil companies / contractors cutting staff in a major way

OR

Interest rates get ramped up big time

Cant see the oil price crashing so dramatically anytime soon

I think the Goverment should have put the interest rates up a long time ago to calm things down a bit, its too far gone now though, any interest rate hike will devastate the country due to the majority of this country being mortgaged up to the eyeballs

So dont know where this supposed crash is supposed to come from

Educate me Cash in the Mattress? Youve been quiet these last few months

you still sticking by the 100% definitely NOT going to be another Oil Boom thinking? or is that prediction now at 70%?

[quine]

Rookie - that's 7 years ago you are talking about so I don't see why you are getting so excited. I bought shares 7 years ago that have increased 100 per cent.

Have you looked at the Kepplestone flats sold about 6 years ago - they are now re-selling for 25 per cent less.

[quine]

2 Bed Flats in 2006 that were going for £100k your now looking at paying ~£140k or so, big jump

http://www-s.aspc.co...APOJCBE#picture

http://www-s.aspc.co...APOJCBE#picture

http://www-s.aspc.co...APOJCBE#picture

Cant see the valuations going below the £100k mark for any other reason other than oil price crashing down under $30 a barrell for a sustained period of time, and all oil companies / contractors cutting staff in a major way

OR

Interest rates get ramped up big time

Cant see the oil price crashing so dramatically anytime soon

I think the Goverment should have put the interest rates up a long time ago to calm things down a bit, its too far gone now though, any interest rate hike will devastate the country due to the majority of this country being mortgaged up to the eyeballs

So dont know where this supposed crash is supposed to come from

Educate me Cash in the Mattress? Youve been quiet these last few months

you still sticking by the 100% definitely NOT going to be another Oil Boom thinking? or is that prediction now at 70%?

FYI that flat in Holburn Street sold in March 2007 for 130k according to Our Property Price website

[cashinmattress]

you still sticking by the 100% definitely NOT going to be another Oil Boom thinking?

Yep.

Oil boom means big significant find. By definition an oil boom is the portion of the economy sustained by oil.

What the greater market does the price of oil has nothing to do with what is in the ground.

If oil price falls due to Libya, Iraq and others coming fully online and not being suppressed by wars, watch out.

Anyone who says the economy of Aberdeen has grown since the credit bust needs to give me some of what they are smoking.

Outwith a few choice neighbourhoods, Aberdeen has at best flat-lined since the credit explosion. Meanwhile everything has gotten expensive.

Words mean nothing without context: DECC UK Monthly Oil Production (M3)

EDIT: as long as Scotland serves its wealth to the queen for pennies, nothing will change. Anybody in Aberdeen who is a unionist is out to lunch, or English.

Edited April 5, 2013 by cashinmattress

[quine]

There's lots of money in Aberdeen however there's a limit as to how much people will pay. I think it's quite surprising actually. I lived there though the boom years and a beautiful granite 2 bedroom flat was five to six hundred pounds a month. I know it has gone up, but it's still (relatively) cheap to rent there. It's good. People are just refusing to pay more so the market is stuck. Same happened in the 90s for about 15 years. I think that's what's hapening now. Stagnation, for a long time.

[AC44]

just look at the impact shale gas had in the states.. Peak oil is not happenning very soon and it might never happen.

[Torryloonmadegood]

The overall production decline is obviously bad for the tax take but actually good news for jobs particularly in Aberdeen where the majority of the "minor" projects are based.

The remaining fields have smaller reserves and have shorter plateaus hence the infill developments being done at the moment decline faster, yet it takes virtually the same "resources" in terms of people and services to bring a single well tie-back as as small field tie-back. The small fields allowance is encouraging these developments, hence the pressure on resources and resulting increase in cost and personnel rates.

Until at least 2015 will be manic.

[rookie]

Rookie - that's 7 years ago you are talking about so I don't see why you are getting so excited. I bought shares 7 years ago that have increased 100 per cent.

Have you looked at the Kepplestone flats sold about 6 years ago - they are now re-selling for 25 per cent less.

Can you send us a link to those Kepplestone flats for sale?

Would be interested in seeing the difference

[cashinmattress]

just look at the impact shale gas had in the states.. Peak oil is not happenning very soon and it might never happen.

My thoughts although I will in all likelihood get flamed.

Peak oil and shale gas are two very different creatures. You should know that.

Peak oil is happening, but, an alternative energy source, albeit a very poor one, is being utilised. It's not the saviour that the papers say it is.

The impact in the USA of shale gas is millions more than I can hazard to say of wells, vast areas of land that is toxic for human habitat, contamination of ground water and aquifers, and yes, methane gas. The USA has maybe 40 times more space to drill on land.

North Sea operators will need to figure out how to get the gas out safely and economically as the fleet of rigs were not designed as such, and would most likely not be able to support the drilling regimen and solvent delivery required.... without major investment on what are mostly antiques.

Most operators and energy economists do not see shale gas coming on-line within the UK in a big way any time soon, despite Osbourne's gift to his father in law's company.

It could however serve as a transition energy source between traditional hydrocarbon and the future renewable or nuclear schemes.

Shale gas could potentially be self defeating, as the price of energy dropping would thin the profit margins, or deter investment in alternative energy. It comes down the the engineering adage of 'throwing good energy after bad'.

Perhaps many tens of thousand of land based wells would replace the existing gas from traditional reservoirs in the North Sea. What community is going to wish that upon themselves?

Question is how many NIMBY's does it take to stop all land based drilling? If you think the ruckus a few pensioners make over wind turbines is something, wait for whole communities out rallying against proposed drill sites.

How much contamination of the UK's limited geography and water supply is acceptable? How many earthquakes will folk put with?

Simple matter of fact is that the UK and US were build on energy costs perhaps 1/10th or smaller the cost today. We cannot continue to operate at that level and hope to remain solvent. Nobody is immune to that.

Most folk that work in oil in Aberdeen know it's a game with the clock counting down, but they also know that the work will take them elsewhere and likely pay a lot more....if they want to go, so it won't really be much of a game changer for 'experts' across the energy employment spectrum.

Final thought, energy can never really become cheap again as it will destroy our economy once and for all.

Edited April 8, 2013 by cashinmattress

[Torryloonmadegood]

Good points to be honest.

Key in the UK, in terms of shale or other tight gas - pumping limited oxygen through coal works brilliantly as well - is the environmental issue.

Its just not going to be accepted even if the technical arguements are correct - it will never be accepted by the "earthquakes in my garden" NIMBY or worse the blinkered idiots who can't (or rather lack the sophistication to) understand the overall madness of wind from both an economic or environmental perspective.

Funnily enough - at the moment Aberdeen is a top pay spot due to the limited skill pool.

At the moment, we are having to carryout the bulk of our detailed design work in London, due to the shortage of skills in town. London has always been the preference for large projects - field developments etc -due to the significantly larger design skill pool in London. Aberdeen simply isn't physically large enough to reliably pull together a 100 man plus project team in a matter of months yet in the current market in Aberdeen its proved impossible to recruit any experienced guys.

And, as you say, its a global business, certainly most guys rotate or expat at some point in their career.

Edited April 8, 2013 by Torryloonmadegood

[cashinmattress]

@Torryloonmadegood

I wouldn't say that wind energy was mad, or any alternative energy scheme. Far from it.

Especially not with the amount of intellectual and capital investment across global academia and industry.

Breakthrough with nano-materials is making things possible that were impossible only a year ago, or even yesterday!

The only detractor to bigger implementation at the moment is messed up state finances across the EU and oil cartel dominance.

Supergrid is a game changer for the UK. Bugs are still being worked out in the concept, but I suggest you check it out.

The next epiphany for the energy markets will be the utilisation of some method to facilitate a workable ship-to-ship transfer of LNG.

That is also a biggie in the material science research area as well; meaning at sea liquefaction, storage, and offloading.

[Torryloonmadegood]

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=184200&st=750

[cashinmattress]

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=184200&st=750

Yes I saw that Booker piece and wrote on the thread, until I got sick of the wall of ignorance.

Booker...well he's obviously isn't a 'fan' and a bit of a burke in general.

Perhaps they are building some near his house?

All energy sources are subsided in one way or another financially, so his point is mooted.

What is driving up energy costs is a monopoly via cartel, not scarcity or anything else.

There are too many unenlightened people arguing the case against alternative energy, driven purely by sentiment in the press and sheer laziness.

Good thing engineers and industry are working away silently in the background despite all the venom.

Hooing and hawing by John Q Public won't change a thing in the long term either.

[cashinmattress]

I wonder if we can tempt the McTroll into making an appearance so he can tell us how much his 2007/8 investment has made.

[Venger]

I wonder if we can tempt the McTroll into making an appearance so he can tell us how much his 2007/8 investment has made.

McTav on that graph.

[rookie]

Subsea Sector looking good