mattyboy1973 Posted January 20, 2009 Posted January 20, 2009 And the shiny yellow stuff? £200,000 invested 01/08/2007 would be worth £362,000 - at 832USD per ounce today (was $665 and $2.03 to the pound). Quote
CharlieChuck Posted January 20, 2009 Posted January 20, 2009 I don't think that is what the figures are saying - unless you are saying there was a MoM deflation Nov/Dec?? The index fell month on month (which implies the basket of goods is cheaper this month than last month), we had monthly deflation (and have had it for a few months now) Here's the link: http://www.statistics.gov.uk/pdfdir/cpi0109.pdf CPI Index Annual Rate Nov 109.9 4.1 Dec 109.5 3.1 RPI Index Ann Rate NOv 216.0 3.0 Dec 212.9 0.9 Quote
TalkingSense Posted January 20, 2009 Posted January 20, 2009 The index fell month on month (which implies the basket of goods is cheaper this month than last month), we had monthly deflation (and have had it for a few months now)Here's the link: http://www.statistics.gov.uk/pdfdir/cpi0109.pdf CPI Index Annual Rate Nov 109.9 4.1 Dec 109.5 3.1 RPI Index Ann Rate NOv 216.0 3.0 Dec 212.9 0.9 Er not correct: the inflation rate measures the prices of Dec08 vs Dec07. So Dec08 rose compare to Dec07 by less than did Nov08 vs Nov07. But prices still rose compared to last year. And this is worrying considering the rampant inflation we had back then. I agree, and I am trying to work out the best way to mitigate inflation effects on my pot of cash. I am thinking UK exporter stocks, Yen, (gold is nice, but there is an inherent risk of theft), property. Quote
Tummybanana Posted January 20, 2009 Posted January 20, 2009 £200,000 invested 01/08/2007 would be worth £362,000 - at 832USD per ounce today (was $665 and $2.03 to the pound). What commission/handling rates do you have on your gilts; or is it a matter of the Sell price not reflecting the Buy price? Quote
CharlieChuck Posted January 20, 2009 Posted January 20, 2009 It is in fact truly shocking, as a couple of previous posters have mentioned, that we are still not only +ve but well above target still. Pressures to inflation must be increasing on the upside now - how much further can oil fall? can commodities fall further? (not if producers are going to stay in business), how much further will turdling fall, and when will importers be forced to start passing on these rises? Scary times. Oil is still a lot cheaper now than a year ago (which YOY inflation measures), but I don't think oil can fall any further (or at least the impact of it falling further will be too small to matter), and as it's measured in $ it has increased in price this month. Food was another contributor to the high inflation this past year, and that hasn't fallen in price. The effect of food will hit in about march/april when the annual rate of inflation for food will fall (i.e. the rapid increase in the start of last year will fall out of the annual figures - so the rate of annual change in food prices will be a lot smaller) and CPI/RPI would fall further, but this may be offset by the fall in value by the pound on imports/oil. Quote
greenshoots Posted January 20, 2009 Posted January 20, 2009 (edited) I am loving this. Pay settlements are at the end of this month for my employees so my much ridiculed decision to link their pay to RPI (and not CPI) looks like it was a good idea right now.. Edited January 20, 2009 by greenshoots Quote
kh1234567890 Posted January 20, 2009 Posted January 20, 2009 CPI down to 3.1%, RPI down to 0.9% !!!! Price of showerheads (one of the many idiotic items on which this is based) must have nosedived in December Quote
CharlieChuck Posted January 20, 2009 Posted January 20, 2009 Er not correct: the inflation rate measures the prices of Dec08 vs Dec07.So Dec08 rose compare to Dec07 by less than did Nov08 vs Nov07. But prices still rose compared to last year. And this is worrying considering the rampant inflation we had back then. I agree, and I am trying to work out the best way to mitigate inflation effects on my pot of cash. I am thinking UK exporter stocks, Yen, (gold is nice, but there is an inherent risk of theft), property. I wasn't talking about the annual inflation rate that's generally quoted, I was talking about month on month inflation(or monthly deflation). The same items in Dec 08 basket costs less than Nov 08's basket. Quote
ccc Posted January 20, 2009 Posted January 20, 2009 rpi includes mortgage payments and gordon has forced them down - this means inflation falls so he can force them down further Only includes mortgage interest payments. So houses are still overpriced, but according to the 'inflation figures' the cost of buying these houses is falling. Nice they totally forget about the capital cost, and just what will happen when interest rates increase again. Convenient eh. Short termism as per usual. Quote
mattyboy1973 Posted January 20, 2009 Posted January 20, 2009 What commission/handling rates do you have on your gilts; or is it a matter of the Sell price not reflecting the Buy price? eh? you mean gold? Yes I am just quoting the London fix and the spot FX rate so you wouldn't do quite that well in practice, but the spreads on bullion vault are usually pretty tight and storage is reasonable. Or are you asking a totally different question ?? Quote
Sour Mash Posted January 20, 2009 Posted January 20, 2009 Don't forget there's a deflationary VAT cut in there too. If CPI still manages to be 50% above target in a market which is undergoing massive asset price falls, super cheap oil, restricted credit, unprecedented price slashing by retailers and a cut in VAT that says to me we are in for some pretty nasty CPI figures in the future. Quote
Van Posted January 20, 2009 Posted January 20, 2009 There is no way on God's good earth that we are going to get deflation. The cost of living is still going up. Petrol isn't going any lower; food prices are still rising, train fares are up 5-10%, Council tax up 3.5%. I could go on. Quote
nickincash Posted January 20, 2009 Posted January 20, 2009 Just for the record the CPI and RPI figures both show that prices have fallen for the past 3 months. Whether or not the figures are accurate or meaningful is anybody's guess. CPI: Sep 08 110.3 Oct 08 110.0 Nov 08 109.9 Dec 08 109.5 RPI: Sep 08 218.4 Oct 08 217.7 Nov 08 216 Dec 08 212.9 These indices represent prices, not the rate of inflation which is the figure usually quoted. Quote
CharlieChuck Posted January 20, 2009 Posted January 20, 2009 Looking at the table provided by JPMorgan on FTAlphaville, their forecast for RPI Sep09 is -4.3%. Interesting.http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/01/20...pside-surprise/ EDIT: You need to click on the table to see it properly. Does anybody know how to paste it to the thread? click right mouse button over the picture, copy the url from the pop up box then enclose in Quote
The Spaniard Posted January 20, 2009 Posted January 20, 2009 Just practising, thanks for the instructions CC. BTW, mine's bigger than yours. Quote
otters Posted January 20, 2009 Posted January 20, 2009 Looking at the table provided by JPMorgan on FTAlphaville, their forecast for RPI Sep09 is -4.3%. Interesting.http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/01/20...pside-surprise/ EDIT: You need to click on the table to see it properly. Does anybody know how to paste it to the thread? What will happen to index linked saving bonds? Quote
CharlieChuck Posted January 20, 2009 Posted January 20, 2009 (edited) BTW, mine's bigger than yours. Edited January 20, 2009 by CharlieChuck Quote
Ash4781 Posted January 20, 2009 Posted January 20, 2009 The index fell month on month (which implies the basket of goods is cheaper this month than last month), we had monthly deflation (and have had it for a few months now)Here's the link: http://www.statistics.gov.uk/pdfdir/cpi0109.pdf CPI Index Annual Rate Nov 109.9 4.1 Dec 109.5 3.1 RPI Index Ann Rate NOv 216.0 3.0 Dec 212.9 0.9 thanks. Appears the economy is in meltdown. Is there a UK GDP update this week ? http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=192 Quote
yellerkat Posted January 20, 2009 Posted January 20, 2009 I really, really wish I could believe in that table. (having failed to protect myself a la cgnao.) What causes the massive uptick from Nov09-Jan10? Quote
scott666 Posted January 20, 2009 Posted January 20, 2009 There is no way on God's good earth that we are going to get deflation. The cost of living is still going up. Petrol isn't going any lower; food prices are still rising, train fares are up 5-10%, Council tax up 3.5%. I could go on. Would you consider an extended period (ie 6 consecutive months) of below zero CPI/RPI to be deflation? Quote
renterbob Posted January 20, 2009 Posted January 20, 2009 Sorry but inflation IS falling, i.e. the rate at which prices rise has fallen. A lot of people who "don't do maths" fail to realise that this does not mean prices are falling, although some are, e.g. petrol and interest payments. no. no no no. Tut tut. Quote
deflation Posted January 20, 2009 Posted January 20, 2009 (edited) no.no no no. Tut tut. Yes, petrol. These are the figures for Dec 2008. Compared to Nov 2008, the price of petrol HAD fallen. Yes, it has gone up a few pence reported on this site this week (still 83.9 p unleaded around here) but that would be reflected next month. 30 Dec 2008: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/motoring/403101...ow-says-AA.html According to the AA website, the average price in the UK is 87.1p, LOWER than it was in Dec. Edited January 20, 2009 by deflation Quote
The Spaniard Posted January 20, 2009 Posted January 20, 2009 Treasury 2% 2035 Index-linked Gilt DOWN over 7% today. So someone's long term inflation expectations appear to have dropped. Confusingly perpetual Gilts are also DOWN about 4%, usually an indication of increasing inflation expectations. Comments, please. Quote
SpewLabour Posted January 20, 2009 Author Posted January 20, 2009 (edited) What will happen to index linked saving bonds? The NS & I ones no longer cover CPI. All my savings are now being eroded by inflation. :angry: Edited January 20, 2009 by SpewLabour Quote
CharlieChuck Posted January 20, 2009 Posted January 20, 2009 thanks. Appears the economy is in meltdown.Is there a UK GDP update this week ? http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=192 Page 4 here says friday 23rd, I don't know if the VAT change would make compiling it harder and require more time? I remember reading in Sunday's papers said it was due this week. http://www.statistics.gov.uk/pdfdir/gdp1008.pdf Quote
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