Things To Appreciate About Hpc.co.uk

[The Matador]

As to those that suggest I was priced out of London property, consider this: I now own 10 properties

in Hong Kong, and still have a large portfolio of junior mining shares. Any one of the three most

expensive properties I own here (in HK) could be sold to pay for something in London that I would

prefer to the Kensington (basement flat) I sold for a good price back in 2001. They way things are

going, all 10 HK flats may be worth more than the one I sold in 2001 at 2010 prices.

I think you may have mentioned that a few times .

[Bardon]

The fact remains that any meaningful predictive statement needs a time scale.

Ha ha HPC is a broken clock tells the right time twice a day ..... which is good enough for me...

An excellent graph of prices over time which helped form a basis of investment desicion.........convinced me not to buy in the UK in 04 ...bought in the US instead

[Confounded]

Being sceptical is the dominant notion that has made this site what it is, so congratulations for that. I was careful to say that not everyone here is present for ethical reasons, and no doubt many are waiting for a whacking great crash so they can chip in to the next boom (I have consistently distanced all my posts from that position). But I do think that a significant number of posters have changed their thinking and now recognise that endless playing of the market, from either bull or bear standpoint, is not desirable in an enlightened society. If that is too idealistic and worthy of cynicism then you have a point, because like you I am also deeply sceptical as a rule. But I think there is a slight chink appearing which might be vaguely promising.

VP

Great post, short but essential to the core of this site.

I am a STR'er but wish it was not necessary to play such games with your family, I am just glad I found this site helping me to make an informed decision about timing. As other people have mentioned this site has helped me to question so much more of what we are fed in the main stream media. I had formed my view about the housing market a long time before I found this site but trusted sources in the BBC seemed at the time just to cause me to doubt my views the whole time. I now know the BBC is far from trusted along with many of the other VI's given air and print time.

For me this site has been a truly life changing find, I understand some people may have found nothing new on this site but it opened my eyes to so much. I have no concern about taking advice from an internet forum but it has to be thrashed out with opposing views allowing you as an individual to make you own mind up. You can not take posts in isolation. In following this approach myself trying to understand both side of the arguments I am staggered at how effective it has been to lay down a script for what we have gone through and are going through.

Well done HPC regulars who contribute so much.

[Downtraded]

Great post, short but essential to the core of this site.

I am a STR'er but wish it was not necessary to play such games with your family, I am just glad I found this site helping me to make an informed decision about timing. As other people have mentioned this site has helped me to question so much more of what we are fed in the main stream media. I had formed my view about the housing market a long time before I found this site but trusted sources in the BBC seemed at the time just to cause me to doubt my views the whole time. I now know the BBC is far from trusted along with many of the other VI's given air and print time.

For me this site has been a truly life changing find, I understand some people may have found nothing new on this site but it opened my eyes to so much. I have no concern about taking advice from an internet forum but it has to be thrashed out with opposing views allowing you as an individual to make you own mind up. You can not take posts in isolation. In following this approach myself trying to understand both side of the arguments I am staggered at how effective it has been to lay down a script for what we have gone through and are going through.

Well done HPC regulars who contribute so much.

Indeed, this site has been a great "early red flag" and full of top debate - thanks a lot (you know who you are

However, now that its main ethos has come true (HPC), everyone has to ask themselves "Where can this site usefully go now?"

Of course, I like reading the posts but unfortunately, its success is also its problem - this site seems more of a barometer and less predictive now.

Confirmation stories are always useful but a lot of the recent ones are more "Shadenfreude" than purposeful.

The posts are only telling me something I already know and I'm not interested in being in glee about it - it stops one concentrating on one's own fortunes.

In fact, its likely that this site won't see bulls posting until its too late - the next boom is already underway. (in 15 years? )

Like many here, I want to be ahead of the curve and if the mainstream agrees with this site, what now?

Is predicting the scale of the HPC all that this site has got left?

[Surf's Up]

I first came here about six weeks ago after seeing someone from the site, I assume the proprietor, on Newsnight making a complete monkey out of a couple of people with vested interests in continuing to hype house prices.

We are in the happy situation of mortgage long since paid off after staying put for over 20 years. We did this partly out of inertia, there was always something coming up which meant next year would be better, but largely because where we live is just about as convenient as it could be for all the things we do.

Several times over the years we have thought we ought to move up the chain but never got our butts in gear, but I'm now delighted we didn't. Based on what the last property identical to ours seems to have sold for, prices would have to drop more than 75% before we wound up losing out on the deal in cash terms, and in the meantime we have had the benefit of living exactly where we want to live, with work and school close at hand, and are now not hostage to fuel prices.

Meanwhile, offspring will probably be looking to buy in about three years, at which point prices relative to incomes will I hope be back somewhere near where they were when I first bought in the late 70s.

[cock-eyed octopus]

Is it?

Was it "wrong" to sell UK property in 2001?

Maybe. But not if you bought gold shares just as that gold cycle bottomed in 2001.

I hope to be out of gold and gold shares before the cycle peaks. If i am early, even years early,

it will not matter so long as I take the cash and enter right at the bottom of another big cycle.

Most professional investors will tell you it easier to pick bottoms than tops. The reason is:

When bubble psychology takes over it can take prices to levels way beyond what is justified

by fundamentals. We may well see that sort of top in the gold market. I expect I will sell

into that psychology and invest my money elsewhere.

As to those that suggest I was priced out of London property, consider this: I now own 10 properties

in Hong Kong, and still have a large portfolio of junior mining shares. Any one of the three most

expensive properties I own here (in HK) could be sold to pay for something in London that I would

prefer to the Kensington (basement flat) I sold for a good price back in 2001. They way things are

going, all 10 HK flats may be worth more than the one I sold in 2001 at 2010 prices.

But if you had no equity in 2001 & STR in 2006? With a property in central London? For example, I know a couple who bought a Westminster flat for £300k in 2005 & sold eighteen months later for £450k (95% mortgage). The gift of hindsight is a wonderful thing.

You question if timing matters, then talk about the importance of timing other markets correctly.

It's called moving the goalposts.

[expatowner]

Do they remember me for this? No - you shag one sheep.......

[geneer]

They got the timing out by about four years. There are a lot of people and bodies that can claim to have seen what was coming, but called it too early.

Which raises the question, which credible commentator called the top closest?

C'mon Timm. They being everybody who visits and contributes to HPC type forums right?

Of course there no chance that people could have formulated opinions in the intervening years.

Nope. All bears were "born" in 2004.

But let me re-phrase. What about those bears who called it in 2006. hmmmmmmmmm?

Edited June 15, 2008 by geneer

[geneer]

Ha ha HPC is a broken clock tells the right time twice a day ..... which is good enough for me...

The crusty old broken clock analogy.

That must be great comfort as house prices plummet a faster rate than ever before witnessed.

Tick tock baby.

[Bardon]

The crusty old broken clock analogy.

That must be great comfort as house prices plummet a faster rate than ever before witnessed.

Tick tock baby.

The same can be said for those websites that talk the market up....they will be right some time in the future .....

[geneer]

On 2005, and the crash that never came.

You can be a dissapointed bear who could see a crash coming but didn't see just how big a risks the bank were willing to take in their pass the debt parcel games.

Or the bovine bull with his received wisdom of boosheet supply and demand theories and drooling acceptance of "before you miss the boat" and "soft-landing at worst" mantras.

I.e. you could've been wrong about the exact timing or completely and utterly bug-**** cross eyed wrong about the whole kit and kaboodle.

That is all

Edited June 15, 2008 by geneer

[eightiesgirly]

This site is so cool, it's about the only place where I feel others know what I'm on about with housing.

All my freinds are property bulls.(ugh!)

Not everything discussed on here is perfect, but open debate is encouraged and many posters have a wealth of financial knowledge.

[Sheer Heart Attack]

I love this place - I've never been so "into" an internet forum before.

I love the intellectual insight of many of the posters (although there are a few idiots, imo), the complete lack of trust in authority and authority figures (that's **so** me, to get all Valley Girl about it) and the fact that the debaters are so open to new points of view.

I spend way too much time on here.

[Leonard Hatred]

I`ve learnt a lot from HPC, almost as good as Slashdot.

Thank God I'm not the only geek

[Flatdog]

Great post, short but essential to the core of this site.

I am a STR'er but wish it was not necessary to play such games with your family, I am just glad I found this site helping me to make an informed decision about timing. As other people have mentioned this site has helped me to question so much more of what we are fed in the main stream media. I had formed my view about the housing market a long time before I found this site but trusted sources in the BBC seemed at the time just to cause me to doubt my views the whole time. I now know the BBC is far from trusted along with many of the other VI's given air and print time.

For me this site has been a truly life changing find, I understand some people may have found nothing new on this site but it opened my eyes to so much. I have no concern about taking advice from an internet forum but it has to be thrashed out with opposing views allowing you as an individual to make you own mind up. You can not take posts in isolation. In following this approach myself trying to understand both side of the arguments I am staggered at how effective it has been to lay down a script for what we have gone through and are going through.

Well done HPC regulars who contribute so much.

Ditto....I had intended to compose a reply similar to this but have no need to now

[VacantPossession]

All my freinds are property bulls.(ugh!)

Almost the same here. Gets rather frustrating sometimes, since the subject is off limits, not on my part but theirs (they get very easily offended when told they don't have automatic entitlement to tax free profit). Some of them have put their piles up for sale and simply cannot understand why they won't sell, even now. "But we reduced the price to lower than we ever thought necessary...why should we lower any more. It's WORTH what we're asking".

I never am allowed to get round to the reply which is "You've already made a fortune on it. Even if you sell it now for £xxxxx, you'll still have made a huge profit. What do you want...blood?".

Rest of family exactly the same. Subject is now out of bounds. They cannot face the fact that they were wrong. Denial. Ostrich. Sand. Self-delusion. Sad really.

VP

[Guest pioneer31]

This site is a refuge from mainstream media. Nobody with an ounce of sense can truly believe the mainstream media!

Nice to see one of my posts being used as your sig.

[Guest pioneer31]

I've been coming here since the very early days of HPC, and then there were just a few hundred members. In earlier years HPC was virtually alone in making a stand against house price inflation. I'm sure I am not alone in having learned a huge amount about macro and micro economics, the city, UK politics, how journalism works, and a whole host of interconnected subjects. What stands out is that, compared with the universal dross and generally very poor quality of posting on many other similar sites, there is an increasing input here from intelligent and knowledgable sources, excellent links to other related subjects, and a host of genuinely clever and original posters who seem to break the mould of mediocrity found elsewhere.

There has also been a marked reduction in the number of purely prejudiced posts, with many threads supported by clear evidence, verifiable sources, and a wealth of info for the uninitiated. From a previous position of mud-slinging bulls and bears, occasional personal attacks, of which I have been sometimes as guilty as others, this website has matured into a viable and increasingly respected repository of largely B()llshit-free discourse.

What is consistently remarkable is that, now the rest of the world has started to catch up, I see time and time again articles in the press which represent a new but grudging bow to the themes that this website alone brought to the attention of entrenched and stubborn denials held by almost the whole UK population and 99% of its media. We cannot know whether HPC directly influences the sea change of views, and of course it would be arrogant to claim it played more than a small part in the shift of opinion since the evidence is now there for all to see whether HPC existed or not.

But it is worth noting that almost every single exploded myth about many issues relating to housing was virtually the exclusive preserve of this website against an ocean of contrary views elsewhere:

1. The lack of supply myth was nuked on this website.

2. This website was one of the first to draw attention to false inflation figures.

3. HPC was the first site I witnessed which correctly predicted that lowering interest rates would not make any difference to mortgage uptake.

4. HPC was one of the first websites to alert attention to Northern Rock and Bradford and Bingley.

5. HPC was almost alone (in the UK) in alerting people to the impending sub prime crisis, both in the US and the UK.

6. HPC was at least two years ahead of any newspaper, most economists, and the entire broadcasting network in predicting a cessation to housing inflation.

7. HPC was to my knowledge the first UK website to obliterate the myth that shared ownership was a good thing.

8. This site stood alone in challenging the myth that sustained wealth can be created by playing pass the parcel with property.

I'm sure there are many other issues that were first highlighted here so I hope others will fill the gaps. Meantime, my warmest thanks to the creators and moderators of this excellent website for having the foresight and courage to stand up to the rubbish that has been promoted in the name of house inflation for too long.

VP

If nothing else, HPC has brought to light, how lazy and inept British journalism really is.

[Guest pioneer31]

Sorry, but this is completely wrong. Any useful predictive statement MUST give a timescale.

All bridges collapse. Eventually. Any housing market will collapse. Eventually. The better the timing of your purchase (or sale), the better off you are likely to be.

Many of ne naysayers have been telling us that this market would continue forever.

According to the Wilson's, house prices double every 7 years.

Which is better? the doctor who says you've 6 months to live when you've actually 12, or the doctor who says you're perfectly healthy?

The timescale WAS out but the explanation of how it was going to collapse was SPOT ON

[geneer]

The same can be said for those websites that talk the market up....they will be right some time in the future .....

maybe about 2012.

tick tock baby.

Funny thing is, would a broken clock be able to accurately identify sub-prime as a trigger?

Nope, didn't think so.

[geneer]

Many of ne naysayers have been telling us that this market would continue forever.

According to the Wilson's, house prices double every 7 years.

Which is better? the doctor who says you've 6 months to live when you've actually 12, or the doctor who says you're perfectly healthy?

The timescale WAS out but the explanation of how it was going to collapse was SPOT ON

Pretty much what I was saying.

Do you know what I can't stand. That bull up bear down stance that the odd former bull keeps trying to sell at the moment.

Thing is there are plenty of B.U.B.D's feeling particularly bearish now the markets turned.

Unfortunately they're also stuck with an overpriced depreciating asset, crippling debt and negative equity.

Not what I'd call the most lucid stance to take in a market place.

To put it another way, a drooling baby can watch a ball rise into the air then fall.

Doesn't make it Issac Newton.

Edited June 15, 2008 by geneer

[Guest pioneer31]

The items you have listed are true, however there is an awful lot of stuff on here that hasn't come true.

Also as a site that deals with a single issue, it would be very difficult for anyone to paint it as being objective.

For example if i was arguing with someone and wanted to use data or a post from the site to prove my argument, however valid and true it was my combatant would merely say that as the site is dedicated to the single issue it is bound to say that.

There isn't ANYTHING that the bulls have predicted that HAS come true.

Oh hang, on, I take my hat off to them to 'predict' rising prices, when they were rising - ie - to stick their head out of the window and tell me that it's raining.

[?...!]

This site is an ideas forum.

People come here to share ideas they have, based on their own experiences.

Lots of people came to HPC with an impulsive feeling that things in the housing market weren't sustainable, once they spent a bit of time here they were able to expand their understanding of why it really was unsustainable and on top of that lots of other things were unsustainable too.

Many people came to realise just how much power the city held over the course of their lives (some greatly exaggerated this power), and how a little understanding of what went on in the city could free them of its grasp.