House Price Downturn Worst Since Slump Of 1990s

[Bingo]

Excessive?

Yes, define 'excessive' please...

[bobthe~]

Can I just add a trembly lipped "But, but, but" here?

But, but, but.....we're not in a recession.

Incidentally, I went to school with the cousin of Steve Fenton, the lead singer of the vapours, contemporaneously with the release of the single.

He was a bit of a rock star by default, but then we found out what the song was about.

Mind you, while Steve Fenton was a weedy looking post punk guy, his cousin was a rugby playing 7ft psycho. We never talked about it.

[tenant447]

I always thought that it was "cyclone ranger"

I know what you're thinking. "Did he sing psyched lone or cyclone?" Well, to tell you the truth, in all this excitement I kind of lost track myself. But being as this is the 2008 downturn, the most powerful downturn since 1990, and will blow your head clean off, you've got to ask yourself a question: Do I feel lucky? Well, do ya, punk?

[mattyboy1973]

I read last week that strong economic fundamentals are supporting the housing market.

Is this no longer considered to be the case?

While some commentators are predicting a fall in prices this year, the bank's chief economist, Martin Ellis, said strong economic fundamentals were still supporting the market.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2008/mar/0...prices.property

[Bardon]

Yes, define 'excessive' please...

"Illusion is the first of all pleasures."

-Voltaire

It works by number of events in early live, then changes to location as well as frequency, then changes to in what company and frequency, then changes to what you are thinking about and frequency, and late in live it goes back to number of events.

There are various industry benchmarks based on ethinicty, political and religous persuasion. Some groups are known to exhibit deranged levels of excessive and compulsive activity.

The most effective measure is your own private behavioural threshold and how often you exceed that this has been know to affect your self esteem and all humans are know to self assess accordingly.

Edited March 11, 2008 by Bardon

[FernandoMorientes]

And how many of those coming on at peak prices are being sold at peak price?

Still should be ok the spring bounce will kick in at any time..........

Bang on the money. According to RICS, prices have been falling at their fastest rate ever in the south west. As much as i would love that to be the case, the local property rag for Plymouth does not reflect this. New instructions are still coming on at "peak" prices.

[beefheart]

Yes, define 'excessive' please...

hitting the seven w@nk wall.

air spunk.

whence air is expelled rather than fluid.

for thine testicles to retreat.

[shuggyboy24]

Scotland up 25%, think those figures need a shot of antipsychotics to reduce the delusionary ideation, nothings selling!

[REP013]

RICS - Surveyors yes?

So when do surveyors "price" property?

If they are seeing a real fall in prices then this is effecting people at the worst possible link in the chain, when prices have been agreed and people are expecting the surveyors report and to arrange exchange / completion.

Surveyors do not, generally, price properties for EA's but for banks to facilitate the lending process. Imagine, as has already been seen, you agree a price of £200k on your 2 bed house and the surveyor comes along as says, "NO, IT'S ONLY WORTH £150k!" Does the sale go through at £200k?

[dances with sheeple]

I suppose the game now is to start setting up the illusion of trying to keep people in their homes? Darling could leave CGT dropping it later nearer an election? and therefore milking as much tax out of the sell of which will happen anyway. A drop to 18% would surely trigger the mother of all BTL sell offs crashing the market and leaving the Government short on tax and votes? But if there are no more greater fools being funded, where does that leave us? I can`t really get my head round it. "Slump" does not do this mess justice, they are going to have to invent a new word.

[m4nclad]

Surveyors do not, generally, price properties for EA's but for banks to facilitate the lending process. Imagine, as has already been seen, you agree a price of £200k on your 2 bed house and the surveyor comes along as says, "NO, IT'S ONLY WORTH £150k!" Does the sale go through at £200k?

I believe that if the surveyor says it's only worth 150K then the bank will only lend up to the value of the survey. I could be wrong, but sure this is the case. That in itself will help bring the average prices of house down.

[Guest_Bosworth_*]

I believe that if the surveyor says it's only worth 150K then the bank will only lend up to the value of the survey. I could be wrong, but sure this is the case. That in itself will help bring the average prices of house down.

Correct. You are of course at liberty to pay £200k, but the bank will only lend £150k. Or rather 95% of £150k nowadays...

[joey]

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/busi...icle3525598.ece

March 11, 2008

House price downturn worst since slump of 1990s, surveyors reportGrainne Gilmore and James Rossiter

The housing market experienced its most severe downturn since the housing slump of the 1990s last month, the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) will say today.

More surveyors saw house prices fall in February than any other time since June 1990. The RICS gauge of house price trends fell to minus 64.1 per cent last month, down from minus 54.8 per cent in January. In June 1990, the balance was minus 64.5 per cent.

There was also evidence that activity in the housing market has stalled, as RICS said that stocks of unsold property on surveyors’ books jumped to a ten-year high. The average number of unsold properties per surveyor rose to 92, up 8.5 per cent from January, and an increase of 48.6 per cent since February last year. This is the highest figure since 1989, when the number of unsold houses averaged 93 per surveyor.

Ian Perry, of RICS, said: “The build-up of unsold stocks will encourage buyers to negotiate lower asking prices.”

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Surveyors reported that house prices fell most sharply in Yorkshire and Humberside, the East Midlands and East Anglia, while prices in London, Wales, the North and North West declined at a more modest pace.

Tighter lending criteria and uncertainty about the economic conditions have also weakened demand among buyers, RICS said.

The balance of surveyors reporting a fall rather than a rise in new buyer inquiries was 37 per cent, up from 35 per cent in January.

The big exception to this trend is in Scotland, where the gauge of house prices soared to 25 per cent, up from 7 per cent in January.

Grant Robertson, of Allied Surveyors in Glasgow, said: “After a period of readjustment, some normality is returning to the market.”

Property sales increased marginally to 24.4 per cent, up from 24.3 per cent in January, but this was still 14.3 per cent lower than the number of completions in February last year.

The gloomy figures come as the head of one of the UK’s largest housebuilders gave warning that thousands of jobs will disappear in the construction industry unless the base rate is cut sharply. Malcolm Harris, chief executive of Bovis, said the housing market was at a “tipping point” as he warned of thousands of job cuts across the industry unless interest rates are reduced from 5.25 per cent to 4.5 per cent by the end of the year.

In a trading update, Mr Harris reported that his company’s forward order book at the end of last week was 20 per cent down on this time last year.

Mr Harris said: “We need interest rates to come down to 4.5 per cent to assist affordability. There should have been a quarter point cut last month. If [buyer] confidence does not come back and demand not improve then the whole sector will have to reduce operations. Our suppliers will have to lay off people and we will lay off people. That will lead to an economic slowdown.”

Suppliers range from carpenters and bricklayers to carpet fitters.

The slowdown in the housing market has already hit Bovis’s annual pretax profits, down £12 million to £123 million for the year to December 31. It sold 2,930 homes, 193 fewer than the previous year.

In the last housing crash of 1989 to 1992 construction workers were able to find some jobs in the commercial property market where recession only began in 1992. This time round both the housing and commercial property markets are feeling the squeeze at the same time. Bovis has trimmed back its borrowing to just £44 million, meaning gearing it is at an historic low of just 6 per cent in anticipation of a tough year’s trading ahead.

Region by region:

Proportion of surveyors reporting changes in price over the past three months

North-39%

Yorks and Humber -64%

North West -41%

East Midlands -70%

West Midlands -62%

East Anglia -61%

South East -53%

South West -55%

Wales -49%

London -40%

Scotland 25%

Northern Ireland -95%

Looks like the media has come under pressure the developers as a number of stories pulled from Evening Standard and the Metro. I guess the must of pulled a raw nerve, panicking people with the truth of what such a large bubble we are in . Basically the country is trully in the s*** .

[Ash4781]

What are these figures going to look like when the economy actually slows ?