Edinbugh Latest

[roblpm]

Link to property?? For us bystanders??

[blobby o mr blobby]

http://www.rettie.co.uk/buy_property/?vend...tructure_id=419

[roblpm]

Ta, if only my every wish was granted as fast!

[ccc]

It was on at £280,000 fixed price, so their expectations at some point would have been around that figure, but im sure the target has changed now. I put an offer in at £140,000 two and a half months ago Was expecting no reply from Ea, however I recieved a semi civil answer back, it was refused without putting it forward to the vendor, but I was surprised they bothered to get back to me. I have a feeling they would consider offers around £180,000 which is still too much for me at the moment.

I think there missing a fair opportunity to cut their loses by letting a realistic FP now. Tracking their flats on Rettie I think they have sold one in 4 months? What are they waiting for.

Spring bounce ? Everything to turn out just fine ? This all to blow over ?

I would have hoped most in the industry would have worked out the facts by now. However there still seems to be a fair bit of denial. Their loss. They are intent on bankrupting themselves by the looks of it. No big loss.

[dances with sheeple]

Sorry to drag this one back up, but has anyone got any news on the Heritors property holding companys that went into administration a few months back. Rettie have 3 pages of their flats for sale in Glasgow and Edinburgh, the prices are above peak for most propertys. What I dont understand is why the creditors/banks aren't trying to get rid while the market still has the possiblitly of allowing them to sell at cost price. One example bought at the end of 2004 (Dec) for £210,000 Rettie asking offers over 235,000. Ok there might have been refurb costs taken on by the bank but surely this wasn't a 100% mortgage. If they fixed at £210,000 they might get a sale but at OO £235,000 with the intension prob of over 260-270K doubtful. Why are they holding out for big money in a falling market, with no attempt at even chasing the market down?

I dont have a link to the property, but I honestly believe the days of 200k flats in glasgow and edinburgh are well and truly behind us?

[dances with sheeple]

Ok, now I see the link, it`s the dreaded fish eye lens again. Just from looking at the first few.....they are f*cking dreaming!

They all look presentable enough, but pushing quarter of a million pounds? pull the other one. The agent, developer and sellers in general will have to grasp, in the very near future IMO, that a flat is just that.... a f*cking flat!

[Scunnered]

Sorry to drag this one back up, but has anyone got any news on the Heritors property holding companys that went into administration a few months back.

...

Why are they holding out for big money in a falling market, with no attempt at even chasing the market down?

No idea, but here's some uninformed speculation. When Heritors went into administration, the Scotsman had a report saying

Heritor's Residential Property holds properties worth an estimated £150 million in a partnership with HBOS.

...

HBOS, which is understood to be Heritor's bankers and also holds a stake in the business, refused to comment.

Now given what's happening to HBOS, it's possible that things are at a bit of a standstill while the merger/takeover is in progress. I could imagine that flogging assets off cheaply when you're just about to be taken over might be frowned upon (no idea if that's true though). One might imagine that once the takeover's complete the new bosses will get things moving pronto.

I can't resist another dig at David Alexander (one of the Heritors' bosses) while I'm here. I'm sure I brought this up before, but it's worth repeating. Just a month or so before Heritors ran into trouble, for some reason he was given space in the Scotsman for an article entitled HBoS takeover by Lloyds TSB is a bad business idea in which he argued strongly against the takeover. He based this on how terrible it would be for the economy and people of Edinburgh and Scotland as a whole, but omitted to mention that he and his pals were involved in a multi-million pound business partnership with the bank, something which might well mean that the takeover would have bad financial consequences for Mr. Alexander personally. I think that this was what finally convinced me that the relationship between the Edinburgh property barons and the local press is little short of corrupt. Why in the name of God is this guy given space in the Scotsman where he can try to influence public opinion on subjects which are directly connected to his business interests? And shouldn't he be obliged to reveal those interests when pontificating in the press? Aren't there laws against this kind of thing?

Edited January 6, 2009 by Scunnered

[TTD]

... Tracking their flats on Rettie I think they have sold one in 4 months? What are they waiting for.

Excuse me if I'm being really obtuse, but how do you tell which of Rettie's listings are the Heritors' ones...?

[TTD]

Haven't looked, but does it say 'Heritors' within each listing description....?

[blobby o mr blobby]

http://www.rettie.co.uk/heritors

TTD the above link takes you to all their flats on Rettie.

Edited January 6, 2009 by blobby o mr blobby

[Guest An Bearin Bui]

For posterity, here are some stories on today's Nationwide figures (also discussed briefly here on the main forum).

Scotsman: Scotland bucks UK housing slump

Evening News: Scottish house prices hit by eight per cent slump in year

BBC: 'Scots housing market 'best in UK'.

Remarkably the Evening News story is the most accurate. The Scotsman's assessment of the market as "bucking the slump" is based on a 0.1% rise in prices in Q4, set against an 8% year-on-year fall, and surely deserves some sort of prize for the most misleading headline of 2009 so far. We're still in the first week of the year, so the rampers have really hit the ground running on this one.

Yes, Pravda et al never fail to surprise us with their new twist on the facts. Last year, I distinctly remember them telling us all that Scotland would be immune to price falls as there was "a wave of cash-rich foreign buyers" just waiting to snap up property around Scotland. Clearly this wave never materialised so we can safely assume that all their other pronouncements and predictions are a pile of nonsense as well.

Regarding public sentiment, at work today I was asked if I was going to buy now that prices are falling. I said I might as well take £50,000 and light it on fire rather than buy now because sellers are still in denial and won't accept reasonable offers. Funnily enough, they all agreed with me and said I was better off waiting until at least 2010! This is the first time this has happened and 2 years ago they were telling me that there's a new paradigm and people who hadn't bought by 2005 would all just have to rent forever. How times change, HPC-ers...! It seems that public sentiment is about 1 year behind reality - by 2012, they'll probably be telling me I'm crazy to buy

[ccc]

Third story so far the Scotsman have run regharding a 0.1% quarterly rise in Scotlands house prices....

Rise in Scottish house prices brings cheer

Astounding, truly astounding. Good to see the comments below though. The worm has turned. At least people are not believing this nonsense anymore.

They are still whittering on about house price rises in Scotland havign been much less than the rest of the UK. How can they be so blatant with their lies ? How do they do this ? THEY COMPARE SCOTLAND AS A WHOLE WITH LONDON !! Astounding.

Why don't they compare Edinburgh with Stockton to show the complete opposite.

Astounding. It really is. Also our old friend David Marshall expects prices to 'plateau' in the middle of the year !!

At the middle of the year Scotland will have 4 quarters of negative movement behind it for the first time. If anything our price falls will overtake the UK as a whole. They will at least be very close.

This constant ramping in the midst of complete carnage is truly amazing. Do these people not realise they are simply making matters worse ?

All that will happen is this will be a long drawn out process in Scotland. I can wait. Looking ont he bright side it gives me more chance to save money.

[Scunnered]

Third story so far the Scotsman have run regharding a 0.1% quarterly rise in Scotlands house prices....

Rise in Scottish house prices brings cheer

I think yesterday's story didn't appear until quite late in the day, so they must be running it again just to make sure that no-one misses the good news.

Also our old friend David Marshall expects prices to 'plateau' in the middle of the year !!

Yes, what on earth is that supposed to mean? I can only assume he doesn't know what a plateau is. How can you go down a steep hill and arrive at a plateau?

Today's Herald has a story with a similarly optimistic headline (Scots property prices buck trend with rise), but at least the actual text of the article is rather more sensible:

The Scottish homebuilding industry said the figures were further evidence of the nation's traditionally more- resilient housing sector.

But others in the industry warned that the data was misleading because it was based only on mortgages approved by Nationwide and the numbers were too small to be significant.

Nationwide admitted that the Scottish regions statistics were too small to seasonally adjust, making comparisons difficult. It also cautioned that housing market conditions were still far from stable.

...

But at Glasgow estate agents Slater Hogg and Howison managing director Michael Luck said he was not seeing any sign of widespread confidence in the market.

Criticising Nationwide's figures, he suggested that UK differences in the time which house sales take to go through had skewed the results. He said: "In England contracts are exchanged and people move in within a few days but in Scotland it can take several months before the sale is recorded.

Amazing! The guy at Slater Hogg is actually taking a realistic view of things.

[ccc]

I think yesterday's story didn't appear until quite late in the day, so they must be running it again just to make sure that no-one misses the good news.

Yes, what on earth is that supposed to mean? I can only assume he doesn't know what a plateau is. How can you go down a steep hill and arrive at a plateau?

Today's Herald has a story with a similarly optimistic headline (Scots property prices buck trend with rise), but at least the actual text of the article is rather more sensible:

Amazing! The guy at Slater Hogg is actually taking a realistic view of things.

Interesting stuff. It must enrage the few sensible EA's out there to see all the nonsense spouted by people like Scott Brown at Warners ? They are just pushing back any possible recovery with their lies and VI spin.

Comments seem to suggest that the Scottish numbers are too small to give a reasonable breakdown. Also point to the delays in sales getting recorded, which will only further delay the recording of price falls. Also seems they couldn't do any seasonal adjusmtment on the figures - wonder how much of an effect this had - either way ?

Herald always seems more sensible when it comes to property. Mcwhirter is a regular commentator over there. He really seems to know his stuff. Read a few articles by him ages ago where he got it spot on. Would be nice to see the Scotsman letting a differing view on once in a while.

I am looking forward to next year when the Scottish price falls start to really take off. I wonder if the Scottish media will show such an interest when that happens ? I noticed the news yesterday was top on all the Reporting Scotlands - of course they didn't bother to point out most of the pertinent points.

I always keep an eye on how these things are reported on the Scottish news. IIRC the last Nationwide report (that showed Scottish prices having the largest quarterly fall out of the entire UK) was certainly not the over repeated main story.

[Scunnered]

Looks like the ESPC Q4 figures are just about to appear. I don't see them on the website at the moment, but the Scotsman's got a report on them.

And the result is .......................................

Edinburgh house prices fall by 10%

HOUSES prices in Scotland's capital plunged by more than 10 per cent during the last quarter of 2008, it emerged yesterday.

The Edinburgh Solicitors Property Centre (ESPC) survey revealed that the average selling price of a home in the city had slumped below £200,000 for the first time since the start of 2007.

At first glance it looks as if they're claiming a 10% fall in 3 months, but later on it turns out that they're talking about Q4's figures compared with Q4 2007. Still, average price under £200,000... Mind you, they don't appear to have been selling many houses:

According to the ESPC, 825 properties were sold in Edinburgh during the final quarter of 2008, compared with 2,500 for the same period in 2007.

Edit: just noticed this titbit as well:

The average city-centre price was 13.6 per cent down.

Edited January 9, 2009 by Scunnered

[ccc]

Looks like the ESPC Q4 figures are just about to appear. I don't see them on the website at the moment, but the Scotsman's got a report on them.

And the result is .......................................

Edinburgh house prices fall by 10%

At first glance it looks as if they're claiming a 10% fall in 3 months, but later on it turns out that they're talking about Q4's figures compared with Q4 2007. Still, average price under £200,000... Mind you, they don't appear to have been selling many houses:

Edit: just noticed this titbit as well:

Wow. Sales down 68%.

Let's hope this gets plastered all over the papers. Getting the market moving at a lower level is better for everyone than this dead limp fish we see today.

[fflump]

Average selling price from Q2 2008 to Q4 2008 has fallen by 17.3%. !!!!

[ccc]

Average selling price from Q2 2008 to Q4 2008 has fallen by 17.3%. !!!!

Off the top of my head I think the quarterly figures are as follows. I will update my graph later and post on here:

229

220

215

210

202

193

Looks like a crash to me. Think someone should inform those living in 2007.

[Scunnered]

At first glance it looks as if they're claiming a 10% fall in 3 months, but later on it turns out that they're talking about Q4's figures compared with Q4 2007.

Looking at this again, it was actually a 12% drop quarter-on-quarter: average price during Q3 2008 was £219,345, average for Q4 was £193,354. That's a drop of £25,991 in 3 months. I calculate that if this rate is sustained for another three years then in January 2012 the average price of a house in Edinburgh will be £41,700. That's probably wishful thinking, but hey!

Talking of wishful thinking, here's the EN's take on this story: House market opens door to willing buyers.

[Deleriad]

The quarterly figures I can get show:

2005

Q1 £165,446

Q2 £178,789

Q3 £176,360

Q4 ?

2006

Q1 £179,215

Q2 £200,637

Q3 £199,615

Q4 £197,207

2007

Q1 £207,669

Q2 £227,912

Q3 £221,986

Q4 £215,168

2008

Q1 £210,123

Q2 £233,840

Q3 219,345

Q4 £193,354

What stands out for me is the *huge* uptick in Q2 each year. If you look at Q2 to Q1 each year then you can tell the speed of the housing market by whether or not the next year's Q1 figure has overtaken the previous year's Q1.

Given the seeming pace of the fall then I would guess that Q1 2009 would end up in the region 15-20% lower than Q2 2008. Ironically, Q1 next year may show a slight increase on Q4 2008 and I would say there's a better than evens chance of the Q2 2009 figure being higher than Q1 2009. Of course, if you seasonally adjust the figures, the fall is more obvious.*

If this pattern holds then the headline grabbing figure may be Q4 2009 where you could be seeing a 15%-20% fall from Q2 2009. If you consider a 15-20% fall Q2 2008-09 and add the Q2-Q4 fall then that could see average house prices in Q4 2009 in the range 169K. (233*85%*85%).

On this board that might seem quite conservative but it would be shocking outside. Still only takes us back to 2005 prices though.

*Example, it's perfectly possible that we might end up with the following figures:

Q1 2009 £194,000

Q2 2009 £196,000

Although that would make Q2 a 16% drop YoY it would be hailed as "2 successive quarterly increases as Edinburgh bucks the trend."

[Muswell Hillbilly]

The figure of £193,354 takes us back to 2006 levels:

2006 Q1 179,215

2006 Q2 200,637

2006 Q3 199,615

2006 Q4 197,207

2007 Q1 207,669

2007 Q2 227,912

2007 Q3 221,986

2007 Q4 215,168

2008 Q1 210,123

2008 Q2 233,840

2008 Q3 219,345

2008 Q4 193,354

It’s down 11.8% QoQ, 10.1% YoY, and 17.3% from the peak in 2008 Q2.

There is still no sign of the quarterly report on the ESPC website, though.

[ccc]

The figure of £193,354 takes us back to 2006 levels:

2006 Q1 179,215

2006 Q2 200,637

2006 Q3 199,615

2006 Q4 197,207

2007 Q1 207,669

2007 Q2 227,912

2007 Q3 221,986

2007 Q4 215,168

2008 Q1 210,123

2008 Q2 233,840

2008 Q3 219,345

2008 Q4 193,354

It's down 11.8% QoQ, 10.1% YoY, and 17.3% from the peak in 2008 Q2.

There is still no sign of the quarterly report on the ESPC website, though.

Good figures Muswell and Deleriad.

I think 10 Jul 2009 could be a date for an interesting headline in this paper.

Probably explains why they are desperately talking pish right now. Scared of the YOY figures to come.

If things go on like they are - It is entirely possible that the average price could be something like 185k for Q2 2009. This will be compared to 233k.

A YOY fall of over 20% would get a bit of realism to the market don't you think....

[fflump]

http://edinburghnews.scotsman.com/topstori...r-to.4859853.jp

By HAZEL MOLLISON

"THE rate at which house prices are falling in the Capital has shown the first signs of slowing down..."

What. A. Joke.

[SelfDoIt]

http://thescotsman.scotsman.com/scotland/E...l-by.4859211.jp

This is more like it. Well done ccc for getting in there.

[ccc]

http://thescotsman.scotsman.com/scotland/E...l-by.4859211.jp

This is more like it. Well done ccc for getting in there.

Thank you. Just destroyed their very poor arguments.

Imagine if I was a landlord - I would be coining it in !!

These guys do not actually even know the VERY BASICS of the business they are in..