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French Property - Price Increases For 2008


john84

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HOLA441
This website is for sales between sellers. ie. No EA's or fees. Quite popular way to buy/sell in France. Have a look at this site , it's also in English, and it will give you a good idea of what's available. Don't forget that the prices are the ASKING price and should always be negotiated down. Especially in a falling market ;)

How much negotiation do they usually accept on PAP?

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HOLA442
How much negotiation do they usually accept on PAP?

100% negotiation is allowed on PAP ;)

The discount you are able to negotiate will depend on a number of factors, so it will be a case of doing your own due diligence. eg. finding out if the seller(s) are divorcing, moving due to work commitments, inheritance, etc.

I imagine the old HPC phrase "If you aren't embarassed by your offer, then it's too high...." holds true. B)

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HOLA443

We are moving to Montpellier in a fortnight. We bought a flat there when they were cheap (in sterling) and having sold up in the UK we are going to live in it for a while to watch what will happen. There are still some BTL flats in Montpellier that are returning a decent % from what I can see, but I might change my mind when we get there :D

Bear in mind this city has three big universities and a business school so there is always a decent student population looking for digs. Small studio flats look the best bet.

Our friends there report several opportunities on nice houses to live in with brits going home and willing to take sterling so saving the exchange fees both ways.

Chris

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HOLA444

I visit Montpellier regularly and the whole area around Malbosc is crammed full with new build appartments (this is where my sister-in-law has one), lots bought under Loi Robien and lots either empty or rented at less than necessary to cover the mortgage.

As I mentioned earlier, there will be big falls in prices around Montpellier - the average wage in this area is low and property is vastly overpriced - this will be one of the areas with 40% drops I'm sure of it.

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HOLA445
We are moving to Montpellier in a fortnight. We bought a flat there when they were cheap (in sterling) and having sold up in the UK we are going to live in it for a while to watch what will happen. There are still some BTL flats in Montpellier that are returning a decent % from what I can see, but I might change my mind when we get there :D

Bear in mind this city has three big universities and a business school so there is always a decent student population looking for digs. Small studio flats look the best bet.

Our friends there report several opportunities on nice houses to live in with brits going home and willing to take sterling so saving the exchange fees both ways.

Chris

Good luck with the move, mon ami B)

Montpellier is a lovely city. Plenty of good beaches nearby (Carnon, Palavas) and some great little places to visit outwith the tourist season (Sete, Pezenas, Aigues Mortes are just a few...). Hope you enjoy the stay B)

Re. the universities : the city has always had these. The faculty of medicine is the oldest in Europe (about 12th C IIRC ?). The student population hasn't expanded massively in the last 10 years, but the housing stock has. A lot of this is to do with migration from the north of France - north of the Loire valley - to the south. The house builders have had a building frenzy in the last 5-7 years. Many of the appts have been bought by speculators from Paris and afar in the hope of getting tax breaks and making capital gains (the Loi Robien is a good example). We are now seeing news stories from all over France about these deals turning sour. Mainly due to overbuilding and rental demand not being met.

There is still a heck of a lot of building going on near Antigone and the new town hall. I've no idea who is now going to buy these shoddy boxes. They are truly hideous pieces of architecture :( and look like prisons.

All this planning has been made 5-7 years ago, but I think they'll get hit massively in the downturn.

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HOLA446
I visit Montpellier regularly and the whole area around Malbosc is crammed full with new build appartments (this is where my sister-in-law has one), lots bought under Loi Robien and lots either empty or rented at less than necessary to cover the mortgage.

As I mentioned earlier, there will be big falls in prices around Montpellier - the average wage in this area is low and property is vastly overpriced - this will be one of the areas with 40% drops I'm sure of it.

Indeed. If the tourist industry slumps this year and next, then unemployment will rise. There are no major industries near Montpellier that pay great wages. I'm starting to see prices drop in outlying areas, as the foreign sellers try to ditch out. Maugio, Perols etc. Once the Paris investor/speculator and foreign money leaves, the falls will be massive.

Add to that the local council raising taxes massively to pay for all their "grand projects" and you have the perfect mix for a slump.......... :(

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HOLA447
Just out of curiosity, who is the company in Sophia Antipolis? I've worked with quite a few IT firms from this business park.

As for living in the Languedoc whilst working in Spohia (ie the Riviera), then that's a non-starter. You'd have a 3 hr drive every morning, along the A8 m-way just to get there ;)

If you don't mind driving about an hour from Sophia , you can find great places in the Var department. A house, 4 beds and a pool can be had for 500,000€ , easily. And the price is falling monthly. Prices within a 15min drive of Sophia are also falling. I've seen 3-4 bed houses with pool now going for 450,000€. Although you don't get a big garden included. I reckon next year you'll be able to get similar for 400K€ or under. Living near Sophia, the airport is 20 mins drive away. Slightly longer in the summer months when the tourists are in town ! You are also quite near to the coast. I've got friends who stay in the back country in the Var. While they love it, the big drawback is the coast is a 30-45min drive away......

<edited to add the following>

I just did a quick look on the french site www.pap.fr for places in the Var. This was the first on the list, and 15mins drive from Sophia.

http://www.pap.fr/annonces/annonce-immobil...pap-736a767.htm

I was surprised to see how many places were in the 500-600K bracket!!

This website is for sales between sellers. ie. No EA's or fees. Quite popular way to buy/sell in France. Have a look at this site , it's also in English, and it will give you a good idea of what's available. Don't forget that the prices are the ASKING price and should always be negotiated down. Especially in a falling market ;)

I live in the US right now and its a small US IT Security company I can PM you details Its surprising but there are quite a lot of opportunities stateside to relo to France, Iyaly etc. We have given up the thought of ever moving back to the UK.........

I will be based in Sophia but cover the SE for France, Geneva and Milan so can probably work from home a lot. Last year we had a good look around Grasse and even considered the south Luberon or AIX at one stage. Funnily enough I just got a email today saying a house we had looked had in the Luberon was just dropped 100k to 475k, it was 625k last year.

If we could get one of the smaller houses with a pool around the Tourettes area at 50% off we would be very happy. What specific areas of the VAR do you feel will be good buys?

BTW on the subject of property taxes are some areas higher or is it pretty much the same rate everywhere?

Thanks,

Edited by whiterabbit
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HOLA448
Seems the south is taking a hit - I've heard that prices are 20% or more off their peak of last year.

Anyway, this article in in French, but any good translate site should give a good idea of where it's coming from :

http://www.midilibre.fr/articles/2009/03/0...accrochent.php5

Actually, I read the article as being rather buoyant. It is about the impact of the collapse of the pound on local Brit residents. The newspaper originally intended to go into Daily Mail mode and interview fleeing Brits at the airport.

It talks of people trying to sell up failed gites projects since BEFORE the collapse of the pound, and notes there are few buyers of hotels/B&B's/gites now.

It says the property market is quiet in Languedoc with a reduction in UK buyers.

It makes the point that it would be a good time for Brits to go home - low GBP, property prices dropped lower in UK than in Languedoc - if they could sell.

It sums up and says that very few Brits are actually thinking of leaving.

Then there are some wild "wonderful France" type propaganda statements :

"Brits are moving their money to France because French banks are more secure" - what was she on ?

"Brits in other (north) areas more likely to go home as it is easier to put up with hardship in the sun"

"Can't be any problem because Carcassonne Ryanair flights haven't changed"

Not noted in the Midi Libre is that there is a notable increase in Euro mortgage enquiries from Brits. I guess the UK economic situation has encouraged more to think of leaving and the non Sun reading punter believes the GBP will recover so it makes sense to take a mortgage now, and repay it in GBP's when the rate strengthens.

There has also been growth in enquiries through currency transfer specialists. Some of these can deliver 5% more Euros than a Brit high st bank, so it is worth checking for people living in France off GBP pensions, or paying mortgages in Euros from GBP income.

Peter

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HOLA449
I've no idea who is now going to buy these shoddy boxes.

They seem to be desirable to the French though !

Foreign buyers are not as important as we imagine.

Don't forget that 1000 French families per month arrive in Herault. Many have chosen the area for immediate or eventual retirement.

The regular housing market is driven by the French.

The boom was fueled as much by the TGV bringing the area into "Parisian weekend" country, as by the expansion of Ryanair.

As long as prices remain significantly below Paris, Provence and CdA there will be no massive collapse ?

Peter

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HOLA4410

MPPRH...

"They seem to be desirable to the French though !

Foreign buyers are not as important as we imagine.

Don't forget that 1000 French families per month arrive in Herault. Many have chosen the area for immediate or eventual retirement"

...maybe, but I bet exactly 0% of these "soon to be retired" want to live in one of these shoddy boxes in Malbosc. Unfortunately places like Montpellier will suffer for the same reasons as the UK - oversupply of appartments nobody wants any longer, fuelled by Loi Robien, causing prices to drop and drag everything else down with them.

I''m not buying the increased demand line either - its the same rubbish that was trotted out in the UK a couple of years ago.

Property price to average wage in Languedoc is way out of step and the correction is coming.

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HOLA4411
They seem to be desirable to the French though !

Foreign buyers are not as important as we imagine.

Don't forget that 1000 French families per month arrive in Herault. Many have chosen the area for immediate or eventual retirement.

The regular housing market is driven by the French.

The boom was fueled as much by the TGV bringing the area into "Parisian weekend" country, as by the expansion of Ryanair.

As long as prices remain significantly below Paris, Provence and CdA there will be no massive collapse ?

Peter

Peter, foreign buyers keep the whole property show on the road as they set the prices that the poorer buyers have to follow if they want to compete in a rising market. I wouldn't use the term foreign buyers per se, as in reality there are a lot of rich Parisian speculators and from other parts of France who bought off-plan from brokers in the hope of making some capital gains and tax breaks via the varous govt schemes. They are now seeing that in a falling market the first is disappearing and the 2nd isn't as attractive as first though. Also, the rents promised by the brokers are failing to materialise.....

But let's not get away from the fact that rich foreigners looking for 2nd homes do outbid poorer locals. It's been a fact of life in every country gripped by the property price bubble. As this bubble is now bursting, prices will fall. Hopefully by quite a bit.

Retirees may be choosing to come to the Herault, but they sure ain't buying in Montpellier centre .... not many oldies will fancy living 5 floors up in a concrete box with the summer heat of 40 degrees outside ;) That is the reality of new builds since the mid-90s in the city. Have you driven around there lately ? All the old French houses have been bulldozed to make way for property speculators and their high rise developments.

If the CdA falls by 40%, expect the Languedoc to follow , with maybe bigger falls in the overbuilt areas.

Bring it on ! :lol:

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HOLA4412
Not noted in the Midi Libre is that there is a notable increase in Euro mortgage enquiries from Brits. I guess the UK economic situation has encouraged more to think of leaving and the non Sun reading punter believes the GBP will recover so it makes sense to take a mortgage now, and repay it in GBP's when the rate strengthens.Peter

Peter, the Midi Libre is a massive HPI VI.

My friends at local banks say the amount of new mortgages granted to Brits etc has dried up since the end of 2008. In some cases, by 90%. Foreign buyers are being asked for deposits of 40-50% by some banks, so only the comfortably rich will be arriving anytime soon in the 34 dept. People are more likely to be selling than buying ;)

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HOLA4413
My friends at local banks say the amount of new mortgages granted to Brits etc has dried up since the end of 2008. In some cases, by 90%. Foreign buyers are being asked for deposits of 40-50% by some banks, so only the comfortably rich will be arriving anytime soon in the 34 dept. People are more likely to be selling than buying ;)

These people are currently offering mortgages to foreigners at considerably better terms than you suggest : http://www.aguado-finance.com

They are based in Castries.

Peter

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HOLA4414
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HOLA4415
These people are currently offering mortgages to foreigners at considerably better terms than you suggest : http://www.aguado-finance.com

They are based in Castries.

Peter

I couldn't see any rates. Just the usual bumf from these types of finance companies (ie. they are not banks or building societies). I see that the linterest rates are based on the 3 month euribor rate. You'd have to have balls of steel to take on a variable rate 20 yr loan at the moment. Wouldn't you ?

They also do 40yr mortgages :rolleyes:

And claim to offer up to 100% LTV :rolleyes:

I'm thinking that they need to update their website a little....... :rolleyes:

There were plenty of small property companies running these types of operations on the Riviera up until 6 months ago. Many have folded due to lack of sales. Others have only 1 office , where before they had 5 or 6.

Any idea what rates they will offer for a 20yr fixed rate loan of 300,000€ ? Assuming 100% LTV.

If they no longer do 100% loans, any idea what size of deposit they require ?

I'd be interested to compare to some of the larger banks here in Cannes, Antibes, Nice.

Merci !

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HOLA4416
Strangely, this is a repeat of http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/lof....php/t6136.html . People were saying the same things in 2005.

Peter

Hmm. 2005. and we know that the banks and govts cut rates instead of hiking sharply, thus feulling the property boom.

I don't foresee armageddon, but 2009 isn't like 2005, to be honest. There are deep problems with economies, the SM has plummeted and housing is tanking everywhere. All I want is for housing to come down to affordable levels for locals. If that means the speculators and foreign 2nd home owners get burnt, then so be it. The smart money got out 18months ago. They've had plenty of warning :lol:

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HOLA4417

Another piece of good news in Nice Matin yesterday:

Their Immobilier supplement (a massive puff for all VI's in the departement) had some bearish good news. Notaries, who record final transactions, prices etc and who are much more reliable in terms of sales than FNAIM et al, said that their data for end 2008 showed price falls of 10% on average from their 2007 highs.

The notaire interviewed also stated :

- that since the start of the year, 2009, sellers asking prices are 20% above what they can now realistically expect to achieve.

- there is a stand off in the cote d'azur market

- gave an example of a 3 bed flat in good area in Nice. On market for 350K euros since 2007. Owner wouldn't drop price. Then , forced to sell, changed price to 270K in Jan 2009 and it's now sold. I make that just about a 23% fall. B) Notaire reckons more sellers have to adopt this new attitude if the market is to start moving again.

- The Brits and northern europeans have left the market and the slack isn't being taken up by the usual stalwarts - the Italians - as they are buying at home due to good prices now to be had there.

So, with the foreigners out of the equation, prices will have to drop quite significantly to meet 3-3.5x average earnings. I'd say the average earner here is about 25K euros. And that's pushing it some. Possibly lower......

I found this INSEE report for 2005-2006 salaries for PACA region. Current salaries won't be much more than 5% greater than shown here ;)

http://www.insee.fr/fr/insee_regions/prove...ES08/DES_08.pdf

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HOLA4418

Still high here in Tunisia where a nice apartment is 300,000 dinars or 150,000 quid + in Tunis

If prices are falling there they mustfall here as only french Tunisians could pay the prices with Euro loans!

Problem with Tunisians they have a die hard price defending tight **** approach where they would rather go under than reduce.

it really effected every place in the world it seems

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HOLA4419
Still high here in Tunisia where a nice apartment is 300,000 dinars or 150,000 quid + in Tunis

If prices are falling there they mustfall here as only french Tunisians could pay the prices with Euro loans!

Problem with Tunisians they have a die hard price defending tight **** approach where they would rather go under than reduce.

it really effected every place in the world it seems

Who would buy in Tunisia??? Colder than Spain over the winter, hotter than almost everywhere during the Summer. Far away, expensive flights.

For an all inclusive once-in-a-lifetime experience might be OK...

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HOLA4420

I am not selling Tunisia, I and comment on this french thread as Tunisia is a suburb of France given the number of expats.

Since the family have a place in Spain (Mallorca) be be honest I do not feel any difference in temperature though it is hotter in the south of the country as here there is Med at the top and Desert at the bottom.

Tunisia is not actually that far away 2.5 hours which compares well with say Turkey, Canaries, Morocco and even Malta. Its the Arab thing which makes people think its further away than it is and we are just next to sicily and Sardina. Historically its the centre of the Med hence the historic wars with Rome.

As for expensive flights that just needs ryanair or easyjet which should be in place soon.

Tunisia is a little rough round the edges and a good 10+ years behind spain etc I love it hence I live here.

I do not recommend property here due to the country I advise against it due to the fact we have a massive bubble here also!

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HOLA4421

Some news from Credit Foncier here.

They consider towns and the impact of the economy 2008 / 2007 and draw conclusions :

Highest price stability = 1 -

1 Toulouse, Caen, Strasbourg, Cannes, Nice, Montpellier, Lyon, Nantes

2 Annecy, Compiègne, Chambéry, Grenoble, Rouen, Rennes, Genève-Annemasse, Aix en provence, Brest, Albi, Quimper, Bordeaux, Bayonne, Biarritz, Poitiers, Marseille, Lille, Valenciennes, Le Havre, Evreux, Vannes, Nîmes, Perpignan, Dijon, Orléans, Angers

3 Niort, Pau, Agen, Montbéliard, Toulon, Belfort, Valence, Macon, Chalons en Champagne, Chaumont, Reims, Arras, Nancy, Metz, Auxerre, Avignon, Besançon, Clermont-Ferrand, Mulhouse, Bourges, Le Mans, Laval

4 Limoges, Montauban, Beauvais, Nevers, Troyes, Saint-Etienne, Charleville, Auch, Cahors, Foix, Aubenas, Calais, Angoulême, Dunkerque, Carcassonne

5 Brive, Périgueux, Vesoul, Rodez

Peter

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HOLA4422
Some news from Credit Foncier here.

They consider towns and the impact of the economy 2008 / 2007 and draw conclusions :

<lots snipped>

Peter

Thanks for this Peter.

Interesting to see the comment from Credit Foncier that only "exceptional property" won't see any fall in price this year. I assume they are talking about the Elysee Palace and the Chateau de Versailles in that case? There are some "exceptional properties" here on the Cote d'Azur that cannot find a buyer. Some are listed at -20% or -30% compared to 2007 prices. Even the Russians are staying away.

As for other cities only showing falls between 5-20% ? And citing Nice in the first division? I wonder what planet they are on? The local Notaries association in Nice said in March that property was selling at around 20% off the asking price. I trust the Notaires more than Credit Foncier as these people record actual sales and prices. They said the Nice market had stalled and 2009 would be very difficult.

I can't talk for any of the other places on their list, but I'd be wary of thinking Nice was a stable market where prices may only fall by 5%. One could get a nasty surprise by 2010.

Still , the article is progress of a kind. 3 months ago the VI's like Credit Foncier were saying falls of 5% maximum nationally. Now they mention 20% in areas. They seem as good at predictions as Madame Soleil ;)

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HOLA4423
Even the Russians are staying away.

Russia has been hit harder that many other countries. I spoke to a Russian accountant working for a Big, well known firm. 40% pay cut on top of a 60% rouble devaluation has seen her income fall from $5k to $2k per month. Massive increase of workload (15hour days, 6 day weeks) due to large scale lay-offs, taking a holiday is virtually impossible.

Accountants are lucky - there will always be work. Other professions are hit even harder.

So don't expect to see holidaying Russians anywhere round the world.

Any Russian holding a Euro/Dollar priced property is going to be either facing massive increase in monthly payments on a drastically reduced income or the prospect of a big Rouble profit on even a drastically discounted Euro price.

Its logical to assume price drops in areas where the Russians have bought in the past...

Edited by Peter Hun
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HOLA4424

Agentimmo - I'm heading down to the CDA in a couple of weeks for a bit of a holiday and a general prospecting of the lie of the land.....

I do want to buy some land down there at some point, this time will just be a reccie.... do you have any recommendations of areas less than an hour from Nice airport, not too far from the coast, and somewhere real people live (community, schools etc...) - I don't want to be stuck somewhere deserted out of season and end up having to ferry the kids miles to school.

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HOLA4425

Seems everyone wants to write a "Brits cut & run home" story ?

With its rolling hills, terracotta roofs and sparkling Mediterranean coastline, it has been one of the most sought-after residential locations since the 19th-century.

But the foreigners who gave the Côte d'Azur its pulling power are now selling their luxury villas and seaside boltholes - and the property market, which two years ago was basking in the glow of super-rich spending, is shivering in the recession.

More ............

Peter

Edited by mpprh
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