Guest vicmac64 Posted January 3, 2008 Share Posted January 3, 2008 SO whats everysones opinion on this - how long till we reach market bottom Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northernbear Posted January 3, 2008 Share Posted January 3, 2008 (edited) crystal ball stuff.... I'd say it'll be near the bottom when the property investment programmes are showing someone getting rich by buying three 2 bedroom appartments which have been lying empty and unsold for 3 years at auction with the plan to convert back into a 4 bedroom semi detached family home. The real genius of the design will be knocking down the third apartment to the rear to reveal............. wait for it............ ...........a garden. Edited January 3, 2008 by northernbear Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
headmelter Posted January 3, 2008 Share Posted January 3, 2008 crystal ball stuff....I'd say it'll be near the bottom when the property investment programmes are showing someone getting rich by buying three 2 bedroom appartments which have been lying empty and unsold for 3 years at auction with the plan to convert back into a 4 bedroom semi detached family home. The real genius of the design will be knocking down the third apartment to the rear to reveal............. wait for it............ ...........a garden. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vespasian Posted January 3, 2008 Share Posted January 3, 2008 I'd like to believe that a market which shot up out of control so quickly will tank quickly but I`m sure the true bottom will take at least 3 years. People really still believe in property here. A work colleague yesterday told me if semi-Ds fell back to 125k, he would buy at least three. It wouldn`t matter if he lost money in the short-term as long term they would only go up Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoungFTB Posted January 3, 2008 Share Posted January 3, 2008 crystal ball stuff....I'd say it'll be near the bottom when the property investment programmes are showing someone getting rich by buying three 2 bedroom appartments which have been lying empty and unsold for 3 years at auction with the plan to convert back into a 4 bedroom semi detached family home. The real genius of the design will be knocking down the third apartment to the rear to reveal............. wait for it............ ...........a garden. LOL I've been looking at quite a lot of houses in Belfast that have been butchered into 2 or 3 apartments. It's a real shame because some of these houses looked like really nice family homes until they where converted into tiny rabbit huts. I'd like to believe that a market which shot up out of control so quickly will tank quickly but I`m sure the true bottom will take at least 3 years. I agree, it could even take longer. It'll just depend on how 2008 and 2009 unfold economically and it'll depend on the time frame it really takes people to realize that the houses are not worth the current prices. People really still believe in property here. A work colleague yesterday told me if semi-Ds fell back to 125k, he would buy at least three. It wouldn`t matter if he lost money in the short-term as long term they would only go up I blame the property porn programs for retarded opinions like this. If he has cash then he'll have the ability to buy a few places but I doubt that the banks will be interested in loaning him the money. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoungFTB Posted January 3, 2008 Share Posted January 3, 2008 I've been looking at quite a lot of houses in Belfast that have been butchered into 2 or 3 apartments. It's a real shame because some of these houses looked like really nice family homes until they where converted into tiny rabbit huts. Btw just an example http://images.propertynews.com/brochure.ph...p;p=ECSECS11931 1 Magdala Street, BELFAST, County Antrim, BT7 1PU (Price £ 410,000) (Currently Converted Into Three Self Contained Apartments) What a shame It's the same with a good percentage of properties now in the center of Belfast, converted into tiny apartments. What happens when these things don't sell? When people need a decent family home with a garden etc Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
subby Posted January 3, 2008 Share Posted January 3, 2008 (edited) Btw just an example http://images.propertynews.com/brochure.ph...p;p=ECSECS119311 Magdala Street, BELFAST, County Antrim, BT7 1PU (Price £ 410,000) (Currently Converted Into Three Self Contained Apartments) What a shame It's the same with a good percentage of properties now in the center of Belfast, converted into tiny apartments. What happens when these things don't sell? When people need a decent family home with a garden etc Red Brick End Terrace Currently Converted Into Three Self Contained Apartments Currently All Let Providing A Rental Income Of £16,500 Per Annum Outline Planning Permission To Convert To Three One Bedroom Apartments Excellent Location To Queen's University, Stranmillis And City Centre On Street Parking Economy 7 Heating <------------- WARNING...WARNING... Excellent Investment Opportunity <--- so then....16500 a year rental x 25 years = £412,000 and then there's the interest acrued...sorry but the math's don't add up Edited January 3, 2008 by subby Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
top_dag20001 Posted January 3, 2008 Share Posted January 3, 2008 Prediction: the demise will pickup speed this spring, with good shake out of overpriced crap getting pushed down by frustrated agents. (nudge nudge - you could help them on their way;) Continuing into 2009 with rock bottom lull expected end of 2010. If the cycle theory is correct, there will be a long protracted climb upwards again after 2011 (maybe sub inflation rises 2-3%py). Resilliance of sentiment will be a large influence on this. But who knows maybe Gordy will throw another lifeline in May with the CGT turnaround/tax efficency measures for landlords/interest rates fudging, or maybe just maybe HMRC have a feckoff database on all illigit landlord activity in NI that they are ready to pounce on in the new year (resource permitting good time to buy= what ever your circumstances permit. Wise time to buy= when everyone else is desperately selling and you can afford it. Cash is the King of the Credit jungle. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Belfast Boy Posted January 3, 2008 Share Posted January 3, 2008 (edited) Prediction: the demise will pickup speed this spring, with good shake out of overpriced crap getting pushed down by frustrated agents. (nudge nudge - you could help them on their way;) Continuing into 2009 with rock bottom lull expected end of 2010. If the cycle theory is correct, there will be a long protracted climb upwards again after 2011 (maybe sub inflation rises 2-3%py). Resilliance of sentiment will be a large influence on this. But who knows maybe Gordy will throw another lifeline in May with the CGT turnaround/tax efficency measures for landlords/interest rates fudging, or maybe just maybe HMRC have a feckoff database on all illigit landlord activity in NI that they are ready to pounce on in the new year (resource permitting good time to buy= what ever your circumstances permit. Wise time to buy= when everyone else is desperately selling and you can afford it. Cash is the King of the Credit jungle. Excellent post. You have done your research. 2010 is when I plan to start looking at property again. Edited January 3, 2008 by Belfast Boy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
talksalot81 Posted January 4, 2008 Share Posted January 4, 2008 I think I would answer the questions of 'when would i buy' and 'when will the bottom occur' rather differently. The answer to the latter is a date (as per the poll) but the answer to the former is entirely variable. Considering data from previous booms, I suspect we are looking at 3 years to get to the 'real' bottom in value. Vespasian: May I enquire as to what your colleague would consider to be his area of expertise? I find it very concerning that he appears to have a herd mentality but is then accepting that he would buy when the rest of the herd is thinking quite the opposite. I do find it amusing how so many people patch together ideas in total ignorance of their incompatability. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vespasian Posted January 4, 2008 Share Posted January 4, 2008 Well, on paper his area is not real estate, more healthcare professional. But you never really know anyones true background. Many people have become "property experts" recently, I suppose. I certainly know a lot more about it than 12 months ago. The thought that property will always go up is true. However, to recapture last Springs prices might take twenty odd years, depending on economy/earnings etc. I would think in a year or two many people will only view property as a depreciating asset, not to be touched unless you want to live in it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sogy Posted January 4, 2008 Share Posted January 4, 2008 However, to recapture last Springs prices might take twenty odd years, depending on economy/earnings etc. With the roaring economy, full employment, lack of housing and land, a much-awaited influx of Ukrainians, and Helen Carson's hard work it can take just 19.5 years. Cheer up! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
talksalot81 Posted January 4, 2008 Share Posted January 4, 2008 The thought that property will always go up is true. Assuming the world remains as it is, the value of property will always go up. I can think of several scenarios with a real possibility that could change the face of the whole planet and turn all such assumptions on their head! Of course one would be even more foolish to rely on one such scenario coming true than making the above assumption! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest vicmac64 Posted January 5, 2008 Share Posted January 5, 2008 Excellent post. You have done your research.2010 is when I plan to start looking at property again. I agree - however there will be firesale properties I would imagine that could be bought earlier for cash. The real problem will not be housing stocks reducing in value quickly enough (my guess is they will fall quite sharply over the next 1.33 years - it will be the banks unwillingness to lend against assets that appear to be in freefall and also in an enhanced situation of very high unemployment only applicants with rock solid credit ratings and jobs will be lucky to get a mortgage at all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest vicmac64 Posted January 5, 2008 Share Posted January 5, 2008 With the roaring economy, full employment, lack of housing and land, a much-awaited influx of Ukrainians, and Helen Carson's hard work it can take just 19.5 years. Cheer up! Soggy don;t know where you get the full employment bit from - poss govt statistics - but they are a bit of a coverup - go to any of the shopping centres or towns mid week and see the car parks full of cars...... Way too many people don't work in NI and never reach the unemployment statistics. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearsrus Posted January 5, 2008 Share Posted January 5, 2008 Soggy don;t know where you get the full employment bit from - poss govt statistics - but they are a bit of a coverup - go to any of the shopping centres or towns mid week and see the car parks full of cars...... Way too many people don't work in NI and never reach the unemployment statistics. think soggys aving a girraffe with you. anyway 70% of norn irons depend on goverment handouts whether through public sector jobs or benifits. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sogy Posted January 5, 2008 Share Posted January 5, 2008 Soggy don;t know where you get the full employment bit from - poss govt statistics - but they are a bit of a coverup - go to any of the shopping centres or towns mid week and see the car parks full of cars...... Way too many people don't work in NI and never reach the unemployment statistics. Everyone who wants to work gets a job in no time (it may not be a dream job, but a job nevertheless). As to those tattooed caricatures who prefer to live on benefits generation after generation... we'd best just forget about them, until they are cut off the benefits AND the government has the guts to put down the riots that are sure to follow this "abomination". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoeDavola Posted January 5, 2008 Share Posted January 5, 2008 I am predicting 3 years before prices reach an affordable level. People are still in denial to quite a large extent, but this cannot go on forever. If in 3 years time, prices have not fallen considerably, I will be very worried indeed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoungFTB Posted January 5, 2008 Share Posted January 5, 2008 If in 3 years time, prices have not fallen considerably, I will be very worried indeed. If prices don't fall I'll move somewhere else Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoeDavola Posted January 5, 2008 Share Posted January 5, 2008 If prices don't fall I'll move somewhere else I'm thinking the same thing myself to be honest. In 3 years time I'll have 5 years experience behind me so should be able to get a job in my field elsewhere. Nothern Ireland - miserable weather, low wages, and expensive houses. Anyone wonder why ANY of us live here? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WasSeller (ex-WouldBe) Posted January 5, 2008 Share Posted January 5, 2008 I'm thinking the same thing myself to be honest. In 3 years time I'll have 5 years experience behind me so should be able to get a job in my field elsewhere.Nothern Ireland - miserable weather, low wages, and expensive houses. Anyone wonder why ANY of us live here? Me! When we've weather like that.. which was why I wanted to sell to move to sunnier climes, and just come back for weekends of craic with my mates! But focusing on the positives now. Like the banter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest vicmac64 Posted January 17, 2008 Share Posted January 17, 2008 Sorry for replying to my own post - but I want to keep the poll on the first page of the forum - so any newbies or those reading this page that haven't replied to the poll would greatly appreciate your vote for the most likely period of time it will take for house prices to reach their bottom. Many Thanks Vicmac Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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