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House Price Crash Forum


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About northernbear

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  1. I guess if we are going to get a bull trap it should be now. I know a few people who in my work are looking at houses or have bought in last month or so. Mostly folk 3-7 years from uni, couldnt buy during the rush and mostly have 15-20k in savings. They are now thinking that they can buyplaces for less than renting, take the little house here as an example. http://www.propertynews.com/brochure.php?r...=1&sort=h2l Decent little terrace, rent it for about 450, or buy for about 500, interest part is about 350. Iknow you have to consider rates, insurance , maintenance etc but people are s
  2. this is pretty simple, and devious, you have an asset, the developer and the bank - which is basically the same entity as the developer is on hook for the developers loss both know the house is going to be valued at lets say 100k in three years time. Todays market value is 200k and is unsellable, at aution, 125k. So you concoct pretty much any scheme, and sell it to some greater idiot with 10% protection for 180k. Some will just struggle on to pay it. Some will put down their 20k savings and struggle on for two years before going bankrupt, in the mean time the bank will have the 20k plus ma
  3. hopefully, the government will give these people absolutely nothing but the dole. I have friends in this industry and i take no pleasure in seeing them out of work. But, its the only way the building industry can have two years of misery and not ten. let the banks take the developers to bankruptcy, most big developers dont actually have any skills anyway. They can easily be reestablished under different names etc in a mater of days. The only trouble is how fast the banks will move. They will be reluctant to make there write downs final by actually valuing there assets in a fire sale. Howeve
  4. im using detached recent (5 year) builds within comuting distance of belfast, specificaly in dromore, even though i dont want to live there, just a useful indicator, these were 250 last june, floor looks to be about 185 now. http://www.propertynews.com/results.php?Be...07&refine=1
  5. i am entirely convinced we will see property shows on tv where someone buys a three apartment block at auction and converts it into a 4 bedroom house, the real clever part of the show will be how they knock down the 'extension' which was added in 2003-2007 and formed the third appartment to reveal....... ...... a garden!!!!! 3 stinking little grotty appartments that no one will bid on at 40k each, converted into a large 4 bedroom detached house with a garden and off road parking at 200k. 40k profit for the clever developer...... easy money.
  6. for me right now, renting one room in an apartment, its just so easy. I can walk to work in 20 minutes, healthy and no boring comute, no petrol, no parking charges. No taxis needed, no planning needed to go out anywhere. Appartment is tiny, but im hardly ever here, its just a place to sleep and chill a bit. Almost heats itself in winter with neighbours below and both sides. heating hasnt been on here in months. I have no interest in a garden, there are acres of public gardens if i feel like a stroll (and i never do), i can be standing in a mountain range from here in an hour outside of pe
  7. its all in the detail. Imagine a 45 yr private hospital plastic surgeon wants to buy a pad for his daughter to stay in during uni years, agrees to stump up 5% deposit and is requesting salary multiple of 1.5. Going to overpay by 5k a month. No other debt, lives in paid for 2 million pound house in london, retires to 2 million pound country estate at the weekend. Could easily buy it in cash but doesnt want to sell part of his share portfolio for tax reasons just now. Agrgees to use his other property as collateral. There is zero risk in this deal. I'd say it is headline grabbing - nothing e
  8. definetly interesting to hear peoples views on this. Having only recently escaped from the university system i think like most of those my age think the current university system is broken, teaching masses of people stuff they dont need or want to know with little hope of getting a job over 15k and loading up on debt. Then the employers have to either start over from scratch or look for talent from outside these isles. Personally i didn't mind having to borrow money to go to Uni, I consider it an investment in myself. I dont think people should get a free ride through Uni on the taxpayers
  9. i'd be interested to hear peoples opinion on how how they think student debt or debt in general will be viewed in the new financial world, particularily if they have first hand experience from the last recession, At present i have about 10k of student debt, and about 15k of savings. I expect i will think about buying maybe in 2-3 yrs time. At that point will it be better in terms of availability of mortages/getting lower rate to have 30k of savings and 10k of student loans or no loans and 20k in savings. At present it makes no sense to pay of the debt as i can beat the cost in interest wit
  10. hi all, I was wondering how do you think student debt will be viewed by mortage companies in the future, I'd particularily like to hear from anyone who borrowed after the last recession and their experiences with/without debt. At present i have about 11k in student loans, being paid back at about 50 quid a month or so, interest rate is currently 4.8% but tracks the rpi value of a fixed month so could be up or down depending on the fiddle. At present no real difference in interest gained minus tax on savings and cost to service debt. I have savings of about 15k, saving about 600 a month, (m
  11. Yup, Ive had a look for sure, overshoot on the upside, undershoot on the way down, not enough damping in the system and too much emotion. in 2000/2001 I remember the likes of the first house I listed was selling for about 45k when fully modernised. My point is just that where people can get jobs the price is headed towards a point where people could buy the things. For those outside of the emotion, lets say the first house there rents out for 350 a month, I would have thought it not too hard to get that for it, I expect folk on benifits would get that kind of allowance, then at a 5% yield
  12. Im thinking some of these are starting to get to sensible/affordable prices, so im wondering are we starting to see some forced sales, or are people just fed up waiting and thinking, lets stick it on 50k less than we want, lets hope we get three people to come have a look, hopefully two of them will fall in love with it and bid it up above the asking? I know folk will still say its twice the price four years ago or whatever... but I can see a situation where people will be able to buy something like these below if they save for two/three years at 3/4 times their salary. My vested interest,
  13. first flag for me was when Blackrock went IPO, there was a very good article on msn about it, the question was 'Do you think these guys are going to sell it cheap'
  14. Heres my take on titanic quarter, I think i'd rather buy just about anything other than a new build in titanic quarter, in fairness, i might rent one, but not for a few years after the first lot are released and not at anything like what i think people will expect. The smell down there is hateful when the wind blows the wrong way and it will be one huge noisy, dusty building site for years. I worked down there for a while and the whole building i was in shook for the weight of the big lorries going up and town the Queens road servicing the docks and the scrap metal merchants at the end! Ev
  15. just to play contrarian, Is there a possibility that 'affordable' cars say sub 1500 will actually increase in price. Less people looking to buy new equals more people looking to buy cheap? Or will the cheap end all be for sale as unemployment means folk will sell uneeded cars to buy food. Im too young to remember the last recession - what happenend then please. (i have also posted this in the northern ireland section where there is a discussion of the local area car prices)
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