Northampton

[TheCountOfNowhere]

Despite the madness , an old favourite, wellington house northampton:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-30064638.html?premiumA=true

25/07/2014

Price changed: from '£57,500' to '£49,950'

29/04/2014

Price changed: from '£59,950' to '£57,500'

Status changed: Premium Listing, null, null

18/04/2014

Initial entry found.

Is that a new all time low ?

The problem with this place if memory serves me right is the ground rent.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

Cracks starting to appear ?

4 bedroom detached house for sale Milton Bridge, Wootton, Northampton

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-29453703.html?premiumA=true

30/07/2014

Price changed: from '£319,995' to '£309,995'

Status changed: Premium Listing, Sold STC, null, null

23/04/2014

Status changed: Premium Listing, null, Sold STC, null

19/03/2014

Status changed: Premium Listing, null, null

02/03/2014

Initial entry found.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-31744788.html

3 bedroom terraced house for sale Euston Road, Far Cotton, Northampton NN4 8DT

£149,995

[Billy Ray Valentine]

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-31744788.html

3 bedroom terraced house for sale Euston Road, Far Cotton, Northampton NN4 8DT

£149,995

Yeah, saw that one and had a similar reaction.

Looking at what's going on overall though I think the market here may already be showing signs of turning. Plenty of drops, some of them by £20K overall, plenty of places that have been sitting on since January, and supply up 10% in the last fortnight for my search (houses under £200K.)

I notice that the ratio of SSTC is way out of kilter with what's still on the market, SSTC being 125% higher, do you think this is normal?

330 2+ bed houses (within 5 mile) to market the last fortnight, with less than 50 going SSTC in that time frame.

250 2+ bed semis under £200K (5 mile radius) on the market, with 450 2 bed semis SSTC?

Are these numbers a sign of MMR taking its toll?

[TheCountOfNowhere]

Yeah, saw that one and had a similar reaction.

Looking at what's going on overall though I think the market here may already be showing signs of turning. Plenty of drops, some of them by £20K overall, plenty of places that have been sitting on since January, and supply up 10% in the last fortnight for my search (houses under £200K.)

I notice that the ratio of SSTC is way out of kilter with what's still on the market, SSTC being 125% higher, do you think this is normal?

330 2+ bed houses (within 5 mile) to market the last fortnight, with less than 50 going SSTC in that time frame.

250 2+ bed semis under £200K (5 mile radius) on the market, with 450 2 bed semis SSTC?

Are these numbers a sign of MMR taking its toll?

Thanks for the update, much appreciated.

If we are right London is already collapsing and it'll see an end to the Northampton ramping, there is no point buiying a house right now.,

You'd be lucky to be able to sell that house I listed above for £110k 12 months ago and that was with FLS and 0.5% IRs....in 2007 you might get £125K.

Something is going to happen and soon.

I came across this today:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-47400143.html

"

4 bedroom detached house for sale Chariot Road, Wootton, Northampton

£395,000"

That is insane pricing. You now it is a bubble when you see this crazyness and you know it's about to collapse IMO.

Even at the peak madness in 2007 those thinkscould be sold for 20% less than that.

Caveat Emptor.

Edited August 4, 2014 by TheCountOfNowhere

[TheCountOfNowhere]

Yeah, saw that one and had a similar reaction.

Looking at what's going on overall though I think the market here may already be showing signs of turning. Plenty of drops, some of them by £20K overall, plenty of places that have been sitting on since January, and supply up 10% in the last fortnight for my search (houses under £200K.)

I notice that the ratio of SSTC is way out of kilter with what's still on the market, SSTC being 125% higher, do you think this is normal?

330 2+ bed houses (within 5 mile) to market the last fortnight, with less than 50 going SSTC in that time frame.

250 2+ bed semis under £200K (5 mile radius) on the market, with 450 2 bed semis SSTC?

Are these numbers a sign of MMR taking its toll?

I missed your question there:

"do you think this is normal?"

No, I dont. If I read what you are saying correctly. there are a massive amount of 2 bed ( BTL/FTB/2nd stepper type places ) up for sale and even more already SSTC....I noticed this also. I've seen some stuff SSTC for a year now, just sat there...empty...with more and more places coming to market at more and more insane prices.

I know one place that's SSTC and the agents are marketing and recently raised the asking price ( ? ) . It all seems most odd.

If you look at the land registry, there has been a small uplift in sales but it looks to be falling back again. Certainly not in line with the massive amount of SOLD signs or SSTC on right move I see.

I have no idea what is going on, if someone can tell us, then please, enlighten us. I can only think whatever it is it's the end game, The prices are out of touch with reality and there are no fundamentals to support those prices. We have "returned to normal". Panic and fear to set in shortly afterwards

I've stopped viewing now so dont talk to EAs so dont know what they are saying now.. IMHO it's a mugs game buying a house in the UK/Northampton right now, there is no housing market just a housing con. We might as well wait until a real correction and a change of attitude in Westminster, regulation of the bankers and the 2nd hand house salesmen.

Leave the BTL-ers to rot and get a job abroad would be my advice.

Most of the posts here have dried up, a sign that they have bought or are so sick of the whole thing they, like myself,= have given up.

Any feedback/knowledge of what is going on for real would be useful, but I doubt we'll have a clear picture of what is happening till 12 months from now.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

Thanks for the update, much appreciated.

If we are right London is already collapsing and it'll see an end to the Northampton ramping, there is no point buiying a house right now.,

You'd be lucky to be able to sell that house I listed above for £110k 12 months ago and that was with FLS and 0.5% IRs....in 2007 you might get £125K.

Something is going to happen and soon.

I came across this today:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-47400143.html

"

4 bedroom detached house for sale Chariot Road, Wootton, Northampton

£395,000"

That is insane pricing. You now it is a bubble when you see this crazyness and you know it's about to collapse IMO.

Even at the peak madness in 2007 those thinkscould be sold for 20% less than that.

Caveat Emptor.

Sometimes I think i'm going mad and these prices really are the going rate.

Someone just gave me this nugget which makes me see I';m not mad after all:

I look at the Northampton thread now and again. I sometimes see you suggest something is ridiculously expensive compared to 2007 like the £395k house now. You do know you can prove it don't you? On the right is "properties sold nearby". Which is this page:

http://www.rightmove...ms=4&radius=0.5

Then you can see the £395k is number 5 and sold for £322,500 in 2007 so you are dead right 2007 + 22%

http://www.rightmove...country=england

So as the man points out, this house is now up for asking price sale at £70K more than a similar one sold for the the bank/economy destroying levels of 2007.

Please, anyone reading this, I implore you...DO NOT BUY A HOUSE RIGHT NOW.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-47451431.html

"**Offers In Excess Of £160,000** Springbok Properties offers this ATTRACTIVELY PRICED property to ENCOURAGE a faster than average sale. This property is PRICED LOW and is an ideal opportunity for buyers who are in a position to buy fairly quickly."

[TheCountOfNowhere]

This sale fell through today:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-45102208.html

"08/08/2014

Agent changed: Stonhills Estate Agents

Status changed: from 'Sold STC' to 'null'

04/08/2014

Status changed: from 'null' to 'Sold STC'

28/06/2014

Initial entry found. "

For me the sale falling through isn't remarkable, its the fact it went SSTC in the first place that amazes me.

I viewed a house much bigger than this round that way in 2008/2009 and how me and the agent laughed that some idiot buyer from London had paid £375K for it in 2007.....

Edited August 8, 2014 by TheCountOfNowhere

[TheCountOfNowhere]

Can anyway verify what I am seeing....looks like the Northampton bubble is dying right in front of my eyes, no end of drops and failed sales on Rightmove/Property bee now.

[HouseDog]

http://www.northamptonchron.co.uk/news/politics/three-homes-at-risk-of-being-repossessed-in-northampton-every-day-1-6237359

Three homes at risk of being repossessed in Northampton every day

[TheCountOfNowhere]

This shocked me:

Land registry index:

June 2014 259.21

Takes us to:

November 2005

256.28

Still below the peak:

April 2008 280.32

Still about 8% below

Gone up 7% since Aug 2013 ( The FLS peak ).

Sales volumes;l

March 2014: 1002

April 2014: 972

March 2013: 768

April 2013: 728

Up about 25% from last year !!!

March 2007: 1632

April 2007: 1256

Down about 40% still.

Date Monthly change

Jun-14 0.3

May-14 0.7

Apr-14 1.1

Mar-14 1.2

Feb-14 0.6

Jan-14 0.6

Dec-13 0.6

Nov-13 0.7

Oct-13 0.6

Sep-13 0.2

Aug-13 0.4

Jul-13 -0.3

Jun-13 0.1

May-13 0.4

Apr-13 0.1

Mar-13 -0.1

The rate of change looks to be ready to go negative now quite quickly.

Here's the graph of monthly relative changes...I'd bet money on it going negative again now after this latest bounce.

Looks like the 2010 dead cat bounce all over again.

Edited August 15, 2014 by TheCountOfNowhere

[Billy Ray Valentine]

This shocked me:

Land registry index:

June 2014 259.21

Takes us to:

November 2005

256.28

Still below the peak:

April 2008 280.32

Still about 8% below

Gone up 7% since Aug 2013 ( The FLS peak ).

Sales volumes;l

March 2014: 1002

April 2014: 972

March 2013: 768

April 2013: 728

Up about 25% from last year !!!

March 2007: 1632

April 2007: 1256

Down about 40% still.

Date Monthly change

Jun-14 0.3

May-14 0.7

Apr-14 1.1

Mar-14 1.2

Feb-14 0.6

Jan-14 0.6

Dec-13 0.6

Nov-13 0.7

Oct-13 0.6

Sep-13 0.2

Aug-13 0.4

Jul-13 -0.3

Jun-13 0.1

May-13 0.4

Apr-13 0.1

Mar-13 -0.1

The rate of change looks to be ready to go negative now quite quickly.

Here's the graph of monthly relative changes...I'd bet money on it going negative again now after this latest bounce.

MonthlyRelativeChange.jpg

Looks like the 2010 dead cat bounce all over again.

Let's hope you're right.

Anecdotally, someone I know is trying to sell their house (in a 'sought after' area) and in a month has only had one offer, apparently from a BTL type who offered 10% below asking price. This was rejected as the seller can't afford to sell at that amount.

The anecdote fits with what I've been seeing in terms of what's been selling and for what price and to me is another indication that the tide could well be turning.

If London continues in the same vein then when the news eventually filters through to the masses and the new market conditions hit Northampton I think we could see some massive drops.

Fingers crossed this is it.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

Let's hope you're right.

Anecdotally, someone I know is trying to sell their house (in a 'sought after' area) and in a month has only had one offer, apparently from a BTL type who offered 10% below asking price. This was rejected as the seller can't afford to sell at that amount.

The anecdote fits with what I've been seeing in terms of what's been selling and for what price and to me is another indication that the tide could well be turning.

If London continues in the same vein then when the news eventually filters through to the masses and the new market conditions hit Northampton I think we could see some massive drops.

Fingers crossed this is it.

Savvy btl investor trying to get ten percent off asking prices that have been bumped up 30% in twelve months.

Clever.

I suspect no end of people who couldn't afford to sell 12 moths ago are now keen to find some idiot to pay the insane 2007 price they paid.

Mugs game.

Edited August 17, 2014 by TheCountOfNowhere

[HouseDog]

Can anyway verify what I am seeing....looks like the Northampton bubble is dying right in front of my eyes, no end of drops and failed sales on Rightmove/Property bee now.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11040337/Homeowners-slash-house-prices-in-largest-ever-summer-sale.html

It would seem to be a universal drop.

The price tag on the average UK property coming to market dropped by 2.9pc in the first half of August, the biggest summer fall ever recorded by the UK's largest property website, Rightmove.

.

Edited August 18, 2014 by HouseDog

[HouseDog]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/festival-of-business/11019416/London-loses-out-to-Northampton-as-small-businesses-seek-a-more-welcoming-community.html

London loses out to Northampton as small businesses seek a more welcoming community

Northampton reheels its image from "dirty streets" and "beggars" to Silverstone, shoe fashion and advanced manufacturing

____

The PR Team have been doing their bit!

[TheCountOfNowhere]

Someone's letting the cat out the bag.....

http://www.northamptonchron.co.uk/news/local/northampton-councillor-fears-st-edmund-s-hospital-site-could-be-next-target-for-arson-1-6242151

"Lasy muck, on a totally different subject, you might want to have a read at these:

http://www.theguardian.com/money/2014/aug/18/august-house-prices-slump

"Record August slump in house prices"

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/constructionandproperty/11015301/UK-homeowners-start-to-panic-sell-in-the-face-of-house-price-uncertainty.html

"UK homeowners start to panic sell in the face of house price uncertainty"

This news is started to go mainstream now, the tory's pre-election property bubble has started to collapse, hopefully prices will plunge now and the cost of living drop.

Onwards and downwards.

Caveat Emptor."

Lady Muck quote some telegraph story a few months ago about prices going up by 30% in the coming years....I told her it was all starting to collapse and the news would go main stream soon....looks like it has and it is

[TheCountOfNowhere]

Last 24 hours on rightmove, NN1 + 10 miles for prices up to £140K

13 listings

8 price drops/fails

62% of listings.

DONT PANIC.

Edited August 19, 2014 by TheCountOfNowhere

[TheCountOfNowhere]

http://www.northamptonchron.co.uk/news/community/grants-of-up-to-5-000-available-for-homeowners-over-60-in-northamptonshire-1-6247510

"

Grants of up to £5,000 available for homeowners over 60 in Northamptonshire"

To say I am angry is an understatement.

"The Home Repairs Assistance Grant is available to homeowners aged 60 and over ( aka BOOMERS ) who are in receipt of a means-tested benefit, or lowincome families in receipt of a means-tested benefit."

Contact the Care and Repair team on 01327 871100, email careandrepair@daventrydc.gov.uk or visit www.daventrydc.gov.uk/living/housing/care-and-repair

I suggest people complain.

Edited August 22, 2014 by TheCountOfNowhere

[Steppenpig]

Krusty in Northamptonshire and Warwickshire after the News (not suitable for those of a volatile disposition).

[TheCountOfNowhere]

Just had a look at rightmove/property bee today...it looks like the agents choose today to drop all the prices.

Lots of sales falling through now.

Following london ?

[disenfranchised]

Just did the 'most reduced' search on zoopla...

7th floor town centre 1 bed - £63k, down 30%
2 bed town penthouse - £250k down 26.5%
8th floor town centre 1 bed - £50k down 16.7%
3 bed village bungalow - £250k down 16.7%
1 bed flat above shop in town centre - £85k down 15%
2 bed flat - £120k down 14.3%
1 bed flat - £65k down 13.3%
etc...

etc...

Until FLS and H2B kicked in, i expected the market to collapse inwards, with the 200-300k stuff caving first as the rental market was sustaining demand for the bottom of the market - It's looking like the start of a 'traditional' crash now with flats, ex-council crap etc... leading the charge.

Game on.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

Just did the 'most reduced' search on zoopla...

7th floor town centre 1 bed - £63k, down 30%

2 bed town penthouse - £250k down 26.5%

8th floor town centre 1 bed - £50k down 16.7%

3 bed village bungalow - £250k down 16.7%

1 bed flat above shop in town centre - £85k down 15%

2 bed flat - £120k down 14.3%

1 bed flat - £65k down 13.3%

etc...

etc...

Until FLS and H2B kicked in, i expected the market to collapse inwards, with the 200-300k stuff caving first as the rental market was sustaining demand for the bottom of the market - It's looking like the start of a 'traditional' crash now with flats, ex-council crap etc... leading the charge.

Game on.

The bottom end crashed in 2008 but the top/middle end held up...if london really is collapsing then this time there is no support for those prices.

[HouseDog]

I still think we need a rise in interest rates to trigger a full on House Price Crash. Its currently swaying in the breeze but it still needs a push.

The BOE won't make any upward movement till after the Scotland referendum - incase it triggers Yes voters.

Currently, I think Feb 2015 is most likely - so the Conservatives will be able to pose a question - about who you (the voter) trusts to keep the economy on track.

[HouseDog]

I note the 'estate agent' on the 'Moving from London to St James' thread didn't reappear. It probably didn't workout as he had planned.