Brighton Area

[Capt. Picard]

Do an occassional search on Rightmove results: early 2009 170-180 houses, just before xmas 2009 hits a low point of 112, Now just through the 150 mark. Pre 'crash' this search would've rendered 220+. Based on this (flimsy anecdotal data) I'm willing to make a bold claim - with low volumes, limited mortgage availability we may be beginning to see a turning point in the market - from a sellers market to a buyers one. Price falls before the GE and the upcoming age of true austerity, I think, are a distinct possibility. Although the official figures obvously lag a bit.

Has anyone else noted an increase in available properties in 2010.

definitely yes,

more and more by the week

it's the pre-election rush

[christhpc]

What cash? what equity? there is only equity in your property if you can find a mug to pay the current an overinflated price or can sell and go live in a cardboard box

...

Time to get on the dole/disability and on the council list for a free house

Good post, right on the money (or rather the debt)

And while I'm sure you're just venting in your last paragraph (based on your previous posts) I'm sure you know the social security gravy train will have to come to a stop very soon. As is happening in the Med right now, we simply won't be able to afford it. A full-time job / profitable business will be a very good thing to have over the coming years.

And when we're forced to make cutbacks in public spending, as the benefit goalposts are moved and people are moved off council houses, they will be unable to afford private rents and will move back to live with family which will cause private rents to utterly collapse. Which will cause BTL to be entirely unaffordable; flood of repossessions / houses onto the market - buyers' market - for those without debt and the confidence of a secure job (which I suspect will be very few people)

Things are going to get a whole lot worse for the indebted and unfortunately, the under skilled and unemployable. No government has ever succeeded in abolishing the economic cycle despite the wishful thinking of some on this forum. It has been ever thus. This time will be no different.

As for Brighton - have you bulls / neithers ever walked around non-town centre areas of Brighton? Open your eyes...

[Tired of Waiting]

I said that I think that they will "flatline or increase very slightly" (probably in line with inflation). I think that the housing market crash (a year ago) and "recovery" has happened. As I said though it is a matter of opinion. I am backing my opinion by looking to upscale to a larger house because I want a bigger one and want to carry on rising up the ladder I assume that those who dont agree will back their opinion by chosing not to increase their exposure to the property market. (or not entering it)..time will tell who is right. I am also increasing my investment in my business in the City because I believe that it has a great future...likewise those who think that it is doomed will no doubt not invest in the City

I've posted these 2 Mckinsey's charts at least half a dozen time in this forum, including in the pinned Charts Thread. I'm surprised you didn't see them yet.

If you can read charts, these 2 will change your view of the future of Britain, and your view of your own future in it - or elsewhere... The crisis is well beyond properties prices.

They were the talk of the town at Davos - according to Gillian Tett, FT, at Andrew Neil's BBC. And Gillian also said that sovereign fund managers (including the Chinese) were willing to bail out the USA - "too big to fail" - but NOT Britain. Peston also mentioned the Mckinsey report it in his BBC blog.

What the Mckinsey's chart shows very "graphically" (sorry), is how worse Britain's situation is - worst level (total debt) and also worst angle of ascent! The forecast for Britain is tragic, we will have a hard decade, fall behind previously similar countries, and never recover the same position.

Source: Mckinsey Institute. http://www.mckinsey.com/mgi/reports/freepass_pdfs/debt_and_deleveraging/debt_and_deleveraging_full_report.pdf

[All Seeing Eye]

The fact that house prices are at 3 times normal levels tells us non-economists something is clearly wrong. Your charts reinforce what I think we all on here already know, New Gordon have fu**ed the country for decades to come, but with the polls narrowing, clearly most people couldn't care less, lowest common denominator intelligence prevails. Either they already have a nice house, or rely on council housing so are happy for the government to finance the bubble as long as possible using middle earning non house owners taxes to do it. As long as the middle earners are a smaller voting proportion they can retain power which is their only real goal, to match the Tories 18 years, while the country can go to hell.

OK rant off, so what does it mean for us if your graphs predictions are correct?

Are house prices going to crash?

Or will hyper-inflation take hold to drive them down in real terms while they stay the same, when did a uk gov last print money, to prop up a bubble? Will this wipe out peoples' savings/deposits? or will savings rates go upto match it?

Will there be a run on the pound? (again devaluing savings), if so should money be put in a currency basket or what's the best investment that's as low risk and accessible as a savings account but is also currency fluctuation proof

Is it better to liquidate your assets, i.e sell your house, bank the equity and rent as I have, so I can easily leave the UK if it goes tits up.Or am I at risk of inflation pushing house prices up, leaving me and my savings behind?

These graphs are great as warnings and predictors of doom, but my main concern is if UK fails, would my savings be devalued to nothing whereas if I bought a house, even at rip-off prices, at least I would have somewhere to live.

So what exactly is likely to happen in the UK. Is it time to emigrate, even now with the pound devalued 20%, meaning I effectively sold at 40% off peak euro-wise, not that I regret it as I am now in control of my destiny not NuLab warped economics and needed to move to bigger (rented) place due to growing young family anyway. Spain or USA are emigration considerations, one has sun, one has work but may be hard to get into. I have 150k savings / 55k net job. What to do?

[Tired of Waiting]

The fact that house prices are at 3 times normal levels tells us non-economists something is clearly wrong. Your charts reinforce what I think we all on here already know, New Gordon have fu**ed the country for decades to come, but with the polls narrowing, clearly most people couldn't care less, lowest common denominator intelligence prevails. Either they already have a nice house, or rely on council housing so are happy for the government to finance the bubble as long as possible using middle earning non house owners taxes to do it. As long as the middle earners are a smaller voting proportion they can retain power which is their only real goal, to match the Tories 18 years, while the country can go to hell.

OK rant off, so what does it mean for us if your graphs predictions are correct?

Are house prices going to crash?

Or will hyper-inflation take hold to drive them down in real terms while they stay the same, when did a uk gov last print money, to prop up a bubble? Will this wipe out peoples' savings/deposits? or will savings rates go upto match it?

Will there be a run on the pound? (again devaluing savings), if so should money be put in a currency basket or what's the best investment that's as low risk and accessible as a savings account but is also currency fluctuation proof

Is it better to liquidate your assets, i.e sell your house, bank the equity and rent as I have, so I can easily leave the UK if it goes tits up.Or am I at risk of inflation pushing house prices up, leaving me and my savings behind?

These graphs are great as warnings and predictors of doom, but my main concern is if UK fails, would my savings be devalued to nothing whereas if I bought a house, even at rip-off prices, at least I would have somewhere to live.

So what exactly is likely to happen in the UK. Is it time to emigrate, even now with the pound devalued 20%, meaning I effectively sold at 40% off peak euro-wise, not that I regret it as I am now in control of my destiny not NuLab warped economics and needed to move to bigger (rented) place due to growing young family anyway. Spain or USA are emigration considerations, one has sun, one has work but may be hard to get into. I have 150k savings / 55k net job. What to do?

Firstly, sorry for upsetting you. You clearly can read a chart well.

IMO:

Yes Britain is f*cked, for a generation, at least.

It will still be a good place to live ONLY if you are upper middle class, with all the class connections, have enough money to play the "non-dom" game, etc.; Or if you want to play the benefits game, produce a baby (easier and safer for women...), and is happy being an alcoholic couch potato.

If you need to work, to make a living, and pay taxes, you should emigrate.

Yes there will be a run on the pound, and yes the best alternative is to liquidate all sterling assets and put all in a basket of foreign currencies. (CitiBank UK has about 10 currencies - protected by the FSA, I think.)

If you need a UK home I would risk as little as possible, perhaps a flat, but the most important: I would go for a 10 years fixed rate, transferable.

And finally, yes, real house prices will crash, for sure.

If nominal prices will also crash or not will depend on a government/BoE decision. If they keep printing, and lift the inflation target, change back to RPI, etc, we will have inflation.

Britain is deeply f*cked, and may never catch up with previously similar countries (France, Germany, Scandinavia, etc.), probably never again. Its problems are too deep: cultural and educational, and with a media that can't compensate for it - as it also suffers from the same problems.

This "Burkean" country's aversion to rationalism is finally taking its tool. (Edmund Burke: "lets not think too much guys".)t

Edited February 21, 2010 by Tired of waiting

[Capt. Picard]

Mrs Picard has pointed out to me two houses in our area with the intention of viewing them.

One of them was reasonably priced, but needed a lot of modernization, while the other one was a 'normal' asking price for these mad times. They both have been on the market for less than a week and before we got a chance to look at them, they both got sold!!! :angry:

The one that needed work doing had apparently 4 offers and was sold at £12K over the asking price with apparently a reserve buyer in place in case this sale falls through!!!

Are people incredibly thick or are there a number of Londoners byuing (what for them is still cheap) or is it the case of landlords who're trying to buy other houses???

Our landlord is also trying to arrange an evaluation on the house we're currently renting!

Despair... and anger!

Thanks Brown!

Edited February 24, 2010 by Capt. Picard

[lorna1999]

Mrs Picard has pointed out to me two houses in our area with the intention of viewing them.

One of them was reasonably priced, but needed a lot of modernization, while the other one was a 'normal' asking price for these mad times. They both have been on the market for less than a week and before we got a chance to look at them, they both got sold!!! :angry:

The one that needed work doing had apparently 4 offers and was sold at £12K over the asking price with apparently a reserve buyer in place in case this sale falls through!!!

Are people incredibly thick or are there a number of Londoners byuing (what for them is still cheap) or is it the case of landlords who're trying to buy other houses???

Our landlord is also trying to arrange an evaluation on the house we're currently renting!

I know what you mean Captain. Nearly all the houses on my RM list have gone SSTC in the last couple of weeks. 3/4 bed family homes are going like proverbial hotcakes, even with 2007 level prices. HPC is a distant dream for Brighton prices it seems. Meanwhile, I am hearing more about loss of jobs or reduction in hours, and the shops are looking more empty than ever.

As you say, it must be ex-Londonder buying up houses - where else is the money coming from? What is most galling is the sentiment - there is a real sense that Brighton is not being hit, and won't be hit, no matter. Great!

[i wanna house]

Mrs Picard has pointed out to me two houses in our area with the intention of viewing them.

One of them was reasonably priced, but needed a lot of modernization, while the other one was a 'normal' asking price for these mad times. They both have been on the market for less than a week and before we got a chance to look at them, they both got sold!!! :angry:

The one that needed work doing had apparently 4 offers and was sold at £12K over the asking price with apparently a reserve buyer in place in case this sale falls through!!!

Are people incredibly thick or are there a number of Londoners byuing (what for them is still cheap) or is it the case of landlords who're trying to buy other houses???

Our landlord is also trying to arrange an evaluation on the house we're currently renting!

I know what you mean Captain. Nearly all the houses on my RM list have gone SSTC in the last couple of weeks. 3/4 bed family homes are going like proverbial hotcakes, even with 2007 level prices. HPC is a distant dream for Brighton prices it seems. Meanwhile, I am hearing more about loss of jobs or reduction in hours, and the shops are looking more empty than ever.

As you say, it must be ex-Londonder buying up houses - where else is the money coming from? What is most galling is the sentiment - there is a real sense that Brighton is not being hit, and won't be hit, no matter. Great!

maybe brighton is different after all

[brightone]

A friend went to view house the other day in Hove (saturday) that went on the market on friday and arranged a second viewing for monday afternoon..EA called them Monday am to cancel viewing as vendor had accepted an offer "at asking" from a cash buyer from London. My mate says he thought that the house was seriously overpriced (well above 2007 peak) but that he liked the house and that he was considering making an offer at 5% below asking ( he thought that this would have been a sensible offer). The EA laughed when he said what he would have offered .Seems to be going crazy out there

Edited February 24, 2010 by brightone

[christhpc]

A friend went to view house the other day in Hove (saturday) that went on the market on friday and arranged a second viewing for monday afternoon..EA called them Monday am to cancel viewing as vendor had accepted an offer "at asking" from a cash buyer from London. My mate says he thought that the house was seriously overpriced (well above 2007 peak) but that he liked the house and that he was considering making an offer at 5% below asking ( he thought that this would have been a sensible offer). The EA laughed when he said what he would have offered .Seems to be going crazy out there

It's all good. Fat deposits from unearned HPI bailing out others' debts. Debt destruction and deflation. Flush that funny money out da system.

[whatcrash?]

The crash will happen..give it another four months for things to get interesting...hung parlariment..and the run on the pound....and the gordon david will screw the homeowners....but it will take time...it reminds me a bit of 1999 internet bubble...one company I looked at had a call center in regent street lol...look they are all idiots - unless you buy prime property along the sea front regency type flat 1st floor of course you be alright because lets be honest as a second home it does not get much nicer then that...but all the other shitty little places bear round for 250k- 300k plus..are braind dead..I repeat brain dead...ohh and there will be tears in two / three years its so unfair....

Anyway, give it time...the crash will be harder but not much more then 25% off peak for nice property....anybody buying slightly outside or shitty areas such as portslade or shitty roads bear road will...well be f****ed..

Once 20 - 25% I will be right back in there... buying bulk in bad times you probably can get 35% off so the worse the times the better for asset rich buyers...so if you have a big deposit.. you just need to wait for all the civil servants to be sacked, social services to be cancelled....ohh good times for some, very bad for others.

I repeat again it will not be as bad in brighton as in other places...I can see civil unrest in other places...not surrey, sussex no matter how bad things get brighton and hove will be alright worst worst case is 30% but if that happens we all be dommend. I say it again be calm a crash will come BUT NOT MORE THEN 25%.

As for the estate agent on here, maybe you can upgrade from your burton suit to a next suit with your oversized watch I love them really the show you round property they could never ever ever afford and the pretend they could afford it. -

[All Seeing Eye]

But if there's a run on the pound then our deposits will be eroded, or have you bought gold?

[whatcrash?]

But if there's a run on the pound then our deposits will be eroded, or have you bought gold?

you are wrong fyi but I'm very careful with my investments. I have a fc account, another account in another country and shares (most have been sold about 3 months ago whats left is mainly power, defence and mini loan companies - u got to love them) and substainal monthly income (thanks for brighton the place to be) - you lot are so wrong or you are slow or you dont want to belive it - people love this place - end of - even if the flip burger or cityclean they still pay 60 a week for a room or 500 a month for a studio they could be living up north for next to nothing - most people work to pay the rent, food, and drinks (a lot for drugs as well) lol

however back to your insight if there would be a run it has hardly any impact on my sterling accounts (only slightly) (with different banks just in case), the run would have an effect on the following import negative (everything gets expensive) and export (good if you are exporting) but basically the country gorden / david would run out of money and all the civil would get the sack (hence the strikes) overall it would make it worse for the country not savings account (as you long as your are carful) plus there is always bricks and I tell you if you bought early and cheap its one hell of a return and security (unless you bought at the top) anyway got to go I'm late...

btw...gold is an old hat...oil oil oil..you have seen nothing yet...it will be one hell of a ride but I got that covered

[i wanna house]

you are wrong fyi but I'm very careful with my investments. I have a fc account, another account in another country and shares (most have been sold about 3 months ago whats left is mainly power, defence and mini loan companies - u got to love them) and substainal monthly income (thanks for brighton the place to be) - you lot are so wrong or you are slow or you dont want to belive it - people love this place - end of - even if the flip burger or cityclean they still pay 60 a week for a room or 500 a month for a studio they could be living up north for next to nothing - most people work to pay the rent, food, and drinks (a lot for drugs as well) lol

however back to your insight if there would be a run it has hardly any impact on my sterling accounts (only slightly) (with different banks just in case), the run would have an effect on the following import negative (everything gets expensive) and export (good if you are exporting) but basically the country gorden / david would run out of money and all the civil would get the sack (hence the strikes) overall it would make it worse for the country not savings account (as you long as your are carful) plus there is always bricks and I tell you if you bought early and cheap its one hell of a return and security (unless you bought at the top) anyway got to go I'm late...

btw...gold is an old hat...oil oil oil..you have seen nothing yet...it will be one hell of a ride but I got that covered

its hard to know if you are for real . you sound like some billy no mates down the pub who likes to brag loudly but everyone thinks is a tosser.

I might have got you completley wrong and if so applogise , but your ' i know best, made a packet and got it covered ' shouty style make me think you are making it up.

anyway assuming you are for real , what the secret to your riches ?

[whatcrash?]

I did not drink champange (never paid for it anyway) or the colombian..cause its too expensive..in 1996 I started and just flipped them so quick and bought bulk. and we kept out of four - one...before you lot start screaming..I worked until I fell over literally working 16 hours a day until I had a 6 k deposit...then I rented out one room out that covered my mortagages...then it made click and thought hmmm one room almost pays for everything EVERYTHING...then my boss that owned a haulage company I was working nights for (one out of three jobs) was telling me he owns bedsits and I should get into that..I remortages a year later and had another 6 k cash and bought a house with 8 rooms...anyway...it just carried on like that for a couple of years I was very friendly with the (because we are big ) bank manager and I had easy access to finance then I meet some rally f****k wealthy people by chance in london that borrowed me a lot of money with two others...for a price of course like a consortium in 2000.. me another guy (a survior) and the money guy..we all put a bit of money in but the money guy had the connection and we had so much cash it was unreal sometimes we purchased property without all of us seeing it....mental it was.. you could split a house in three and could walk away with third for FREE after 12 weeks also bought bulk of other landlords and investors...we did that for a couple of years and one guy left for abroad (spain he started a timeshare thing...that went well but wrong after a couple of years) we split the whole thing paid back most of the money and I had a lot of property for myself and I only had to take on a small mortages for the whole lot.,,,then I bought a couple of shops in london and a a massive shitty warehouse with a bit of land in London (that turned out to be a gold mine) bought by an insurance company I still live off that deal..sweat it was..anyway keept my head down and not messed around....then I had a family trategdy and did nothing except check the book for a year fell into a bad place (depression) but got out of it...then I got bored and got together with a big builder and we did a few properties in Woking (what a dump) and a lot in brighton increased my portfolio at the same time...after a while in 2006/2007 it got all a bit expensive and I could not see the same return in the long term..everybody was high literally even the scummy estate agent were drinking champagne and I got worried and almosted stopped..I'm very frugal because I came from a very poor backrgound I always had safety in mind nothing else..and before you go shouting I was poor piss poor..when I was a child I never remember when I was not hungry..Anyway then I did a few financial deals got greedy and almost lost the lot but got out just in time....luckily anyway now I dont do anything except collect the rent talk to the handman and a couple of contractors to keep the flats/houses in order and keep a careful eye on my other investments - the shops are easy they look after themself saying that I had to reduce the rent on one but I never paid a lot for them..thats its really..no secret just hard hard hard work and I took a massive risk (the bubble could have burst much earlier) and worked like a mad man to provide for my family ...now I'm just waiting for another opportunity because I'm bored it probably will mostly be commerical prime not offices thats for schmugs..shops and restaurants prime but the timing is crucial you can loose you shirt if you get it wrong if resendital falls enough I get back into that problem is its such much work especially the council lot....ohh and a bit of other advise (shelly or whatever your name was the gym lady who wished somebody to go bust because he moved down here) when I was in a nice car or house of a mate i was not envious it inspired me to get the same or better.....I tell you this country is going down with the current attiude you need to inspire to be a better person not moan about the people that have a nice car ...ohh before you go off on one..I pay a sh*t loads of tax and will do when I sell up eventually..

Anyway this is probably my last post and I would have never revealed my personal situation but I had a nice heavy meal tonight anyway my opinion about the brighton market max 25% at the very most 30% (but that would be horrific for the country ther would civil unrest and everything-think how bad it would be in wales and up north bad bad) but brighton is alright I have been all over..even bought houses in wales after I saw it on telly i keept them for a couple of years until I spent a week there..I took the first offers to never have to return...anyway brighton is alright sorry but it is...unique location and its got a vibe- people want to be here from all over europe not many but enought to keep this little town busy and crowded...I have said it before nothing gets built...anyway good luck guys I dont think what you are after will not happend ie nice one bed flat with garden for 90k/100k in town or a nice little house for 180k never there is too much cash and I mentioned it before there is a lot of people with pilles of cash all waiting. My advice if you can afford it and you think its reasonable and you can see yourself living there for five years and its a good area then perfect obviously none of you think now is time but it will be in a couple of years and then dont miss out...BECAUSE THERE IS A SHORTAGE

[brightone]

I did not drink champange (never paid for it anyway) or the colombian..cause its too expensive..in 1996 I started and just flipped them so quick and bought bulk. and we kept out of four - one...before you lot start screaming..I worked until I fell over literally working 16 hours a day until I had a 6 k deposit...then I rented out one room out that covered my mortagages...then it made click and thought hmmm one room almost pays for everything EVERYTHING...then my boss that owned a haulage company I was working nights for (one out of three jobs) was telling me he owns bedsits and I should get into that..I remortages a year later and had another 6 k cash and bought a house with 8 rooms...anyway...it just carried on like that for a couple of years I was very friendly with the (because we are big ) bank manager and I had easy access to finance then I meet some rally f****k wealthy people by chance in london that borrowed me a lot of money with two others...for a price of course like a consortium in 2000.. me another guy (a survior) and the money guy..we all put a bit of money in but the money guy had the connection and we had so much cash it was unreal sometimes we purchased property without all of us seeing it....mental it was.. you could split a house in three and could walk away with third for FREE after 12 weeks also bought bulk of other landlords and investors...we did that for a couple of years and one guy left for abroad (spain he started a timeshare thing...that went well but wrong after a couple of years) we split the whole thing paid back most of the money and I had a lot of property for myself and I only had to take on a small mortages for the whole lot.,,,then I bought a couple of shops in london and a a massive shitty warehouse with a bit of land in London (that turned out to be a gold mine) bought by an insurance company I still live off that deal..sweat it was..anyway keept my head down and not messed around....then I had a family trategdy and did nothing except check the book for a year fell into a bad place (depression) but got out of it...then I got bored and got together with a big builder and we did a few properties in Woking (what a dump) and a lot in brighton increased my portfolio at the same time...after a while in 2006/2007 it got all a bit expensive and I could not see the same return in the long term..everybody was high literally even the scummy estate agent were drinking champagne and I got worried and almosted stopped..I'm very frugal because I came from a very poor backrgound I always had safety in mind nothing else..and before you go shouting I was poor piss poor..when I was a child I never remember when I was not hungry..Anyway then I did a few financial deals got greedy and almost lost the lot but got out just in time....luckily anyway now I dont do anything except collect the rent talk to the handman and a couple of contractors to keep the flats/houses in order and keep a careful eye on my other investments - the shops are easy they look after themself saying that I had to reduce the rent on one but I never paid a lot for them..thats its really..no secret just hard hard hard work and I took a massive risk (the bubble could have burst much earlier) and worked like a mad man to provide for my family ...now I'm just waiting for another opportunity because I'm bored it probably will mostly be commerical prime not offices thats for schmugs..shops and restaurants prime but the timing is crucial you can loose you shirt if you get it wrong if resendital falls enough I get back into that problem is its such much work especially the council lot....ohh and a bit of other advise (shelly or whatever your name was the gym lady who wished somebody to go bust because he moved down here) when I was in a nice car or house of a mate i was not envious it inspired me to get the same or better.....I tell you this country is going down with the current attiude you need to inspire to be a better person not moan about the people that have a nice car ...ohh before you go off on one..I pay a sh*t loads of tax and will do when I sell up eventually..

Anyway this is probably my last post and I would have never revealed my personal situation but I had a nice heavy meal tonight anyway my opinion about the brighton market max 25% at the very most 30% (but that would be horrific for the country ther would civil unrest and everything-think how bad it would be in wales and up north bad bad) but brighton is alright I have been all over..even bought houses in wales after I saw it on telly i keept them for a couple of years until I spent a week there..I took the first offers to never have to return...anyway brighton is alright sorry but it is...unique location and its got a vibe- people want to be here from all over europe not many but enought to keep this little town busy and crowded...I have said it before nothing gets built...anyway good luck guys I dont think what you are after will not happend ie nice one bed flat with garden for 90k/100k in town or a nice little house for 180k never there is too much cash and I mentioned it before there is a lot of people with pilles of cash all waiting. My advice if you can afford it and you think its reasonable and you can see yourself living there for five years and its a good area then perfect obviously none of you think now is time but it will be in a couple of years and then dont miss out...BECAUSE THERE IS A SHORTAGE

Not wishing to be rude, but could someone post an executive summary of this as I genuinely find it very difficult to read without punctuation. Thanks

[LiveAndLetBuy]

Not wishing to be rude, but could someone post an executive summary of this as I genuinely find it very difficult to read without punctuation. Thanks

He says he bought heavily when the market was low (1996), worked hard, took a few risks and got rewarded/lucky.

He says that he can see the Brighton market crashing, but not by much more than 20%, due to supply and demand.

He also says that many of those who hope for the market to crash by more than 30% are just bitter/lazy, and that people shouldn't be rewarded for just sitting around hoping that every market upturn they miss out on collapses, while never taking on any risks themselves.

(well I think that's what he wrote)

[brightone]

He says he bought heavily when the market was low (1996), worked hard, took a few risks and got rewarded/lucky.

He says that he can see the Brighton market crashing, but not by much more than 20%, due to supply and demand.

He also says that many of those who hope for the market to crash by more than 30% are just bitter/lazy, and that people shouldn't be rewarded for just sitting around hoping that every market upturn they miss out on collapses, while never taking on any risks themselves.

(well I think that's what he wrote)

Ah right, thanks

[Tired of Waiting]

Mrs Picard has pointed out to me two houses in our area with the intention of viewing them.

One of them was reasonably priced, but needed a lot of modernization, while the other one was a 'normal' asking price for these mad times. They both have been on the market for less than a week and before we got a chance to look at them, they both got sold!!! :angry:

The one that needed work doing had apparently 4 offers and was sold at £12K over the asking price with apparently a reserve buyer in place in case this sale falls through!!!

Are people incredibly thick or are there a number of Londoners byuing (what for them is still cheap) or is it the case of landlords who're trying to buy other houses???

Our landlord is also trying to arrange an evaluation on the house we're currently renting!

Despair... and anger!

Thanks Brown!

A pollster was on the Daily Politics, a couple of days ago, and he told Andrew Neil that Labour is improving in the polls because more voters are thinking that Brown economic policy is working, that the recession is over, and that the economy will improve from now onwards.

So, to answer your question ("Are people incredibly thick"), unfortunately, and obviously, yes.

I'm sorry.

Edited February 26, 2010 by Tired of waiting

[Tired of Waiting]

I did not drink champange (never paid for it anyway) or the colombian..cause its too expensive..in 1996 I started and just flipped them so quick and bought bulk. and we kept out of four - one...before you lot start screaming..I worked until I fell over literally working 16 hours a day until I had a 6 k deposit...then I rented out one room out that covered my mortagages...then it made click and thought hmmm one room almost pays for everything EVERYTHING...then my boss that owned a haulage company I was working nights for (one out of three jobs) was telling me he owns bedsits and I should get into that..I remortages a year later and had another 6 k cash and bought a house with 8 rooms...anyway...it just carried on like that for a couple of years I was very friendly with the (because we are big ) bank manager and I had easy access to finance then I meet some rally f****k wealthy people by chance in london that borrowed me a lot of money with two others...for a price of course like a consortium in 2000.. me another guy (a survior) and the money guy..we all put a bit of money in but the money guy had the connection and we had so much cash it was unreal sometimes we purchased property without all of us seeing it....mental it was.. you could split a house in three and could walk away with third for FREE after 12 weeks also bought bulk of other landlords and investors...we did that for a couple of years and one guy left for abroad (spain he started a timeshare thing...that went well but wrong after a couple of years) we split the whole thing paid back most of the money and I had a lot of property for myself and I only had to take on a small mortages for the whole lot.,,,then I bought a couple of shops in london and a a massive shitty warehouse with a bit of land in London (that turned out to be a gold mine) bought by an insurance company I still live off that deal..sweat it was..anyway keept my head down and not messed around....then I had a family trategdy and did nothing except check the book for a year fell into a bad place (depression) but got out of it...then I got bored and got together with a big builder and we did a few properties in Woking (what a dump) and a lot in brighton increased my portfolio at the same time...after a while in 2006/2007 it got all a bit expensive and I could not see the same return in the long term..everybody was high literally even the scummy estate agent were drinking champagne and I got worried and almosted stopped..I'm very frugal because I came from a very poor backrgound I always had safety in mind nothing else..and before you go shouting I was poor piss poor..when I was a child I never remember when I was not hungry..Anyway then I did a few financial deals got greedy and almost lost the lot but got out just in time....luckily anyway now I dont do anything except collect the rent talk to the handman and a couple of contractors to keep the flats/houses in order and keep a careful eye on my other investments - the shops are easy they look after themself saying that I had to reduce the rent on one but I never paid a lot for them..thats its really..no secret just hard hard hard work and I took a massive risk (the bubble could have burst much earlier) and worked like a mad man to provide for my family ...now I'm just waiting for another opportunity because I'm bored it probably will mostly be commerical prime not offices thats for schmugs..shops and restaurants prime but the timing is crucial you can loose you shirt if you get it wrong if resendital falls enough I get back into that problem is its such much work especially the council lot....ohh and a bit of other advise (shelly or whatever your name was the gym lady who wished somebody to go bust because he moved down here) when I was in a nice car or house of a mate i was not envious it inspired me to get the same or better.....I tell you this country is going down with the current attiude you need to inspire to be a better person not moan about the people that have a nice car ...ohh before you go off on one..I pay a sh*t loads of tax and will do when I sell up eventually..

Anyway this is probably my last post and I would have never revealed my personal situation but I had a nice heavy meal tonight anyway my opinion about the brighton market max 25% at the very most 30% (but that would be horrific for the country ther would civil unrest and everything-think how bad it would be in wales and up north bad bad) but brighton is alright I have been all over..even bought houses in wales after I saw it on telly i keept them for a couple of years until I spent a week there..I took the first offers to never have to return...anyway brighton is alright sorry but it is...unique location and its got a vibe- people want to be here from all over europe not many but enought to keep this little town busy and crowded...I have said it before nothing gets built...anyway good luck guys I dont think what you are after will not happend ie nice one bed flat with garden for 90k/100k in town or a nice little house for 180k never there is too much cash and I mentioned it before there is a lot of people with pilles of cash all waiting. My advice if you can afford it and you think its reasonable and you can see yourself living there for five years and its a good area then perfect obviously none of you think now is time but it will be in a couple of years and then dont miss out...BECAUSE THERE IS A SHORTAGE

Thank you for your post.

You obviously worked very hard, and despite some lucky timing, you deserve your success.

And I agree with your forecast, of a fall of 20-30% in Brighton. I think that will happen in the next 2-3 years.

But I think you are underestimating the losses from your sterling assets.

And about the longer term though, I am not sure you got how bad the UK economy will be. The chart below shows how much debt Britain has already, and how fast it is growing. The future is bleak.

And sterling will crash. no doubt about it. It may even happen in the next couple of months, or even weeks.

If i were you i would consider selling the lot, ASAP, and go for maximum safety for some 2 or 3 years, investing in a variety of foreign currency accounts (spread the eggs in different baskets). But get out of Sterling, urgently.

Good luck,

ToW

[i wanna house]

Thank you for your post.

You obviously worked very hard, and despite some lucky timing, you deserve your success.

And I agree with your forecast, of a fall of 20-30% in Brighton. I think that will happen in the next 2-3 years.

But I think you are underestimating the losses from your sterling assets.

And about the longer term though, I am not sure you got how bad the UK economy will be. The chart below shows how much debt Britain has already, and how fast it is growing. The future is bleak.

And sterling will crash. no doubt about it. It may even happen in the next couple of months, or even weeks.

If i were you i would consider selling the lot, ASAP, and go for maximum safety for some 2 or 3 years, investing in a variety of foreign currency accounts (spread the eggs in different baskets). But get out of Sterling, urgently.

Good luck,

ToW

how does one get out of sterling ?

[Tired of Waiting]

how does one get out of sterling ?

Converting your savings into foreign currencies. One can even keep the money in Britain. Many banks here have foreign currencies accounts. For instance, CitiBank has 10. And apparently they are protected by the FSA.

If one has UK assets, the best now is to sell everything, and convert the proceeds as above.

The only thing most of us can't avoid, as we work here in Britain, is to be paid in sterling, unfortunately... :angry:

Edited February 27, 2010 by Tired of waiting

[brightone]

Converting your savings into foreign currencies. One can even keep the money in Britain. Many banks here have foreign currencies accounts. For instance, CitiBank has 10. And apparently they are protected by the FSA.

If one has UK assets, the best now is to sell everything, and convert the proceeds as above.

The only thing most of us can't avoid, as we work here in Britain, is to be paid in sterling, unfortunately... :angry:

The only problem that I have with this advice is that it moves one from the realms of saving into speculation. If one is planning to move to another country then purchasing that countries currency, or maybe arranging a forward contract to cover the purchase of property or business assets in that country is a good idea. Personally, I think that if one is not planning to move abroad then currency speculation is a high risk activity best left to the very wealthy, certainly an unwise activity for those trying to preservethe value of modest savings.

Edited February 27, 2010 by brightone

[Tired of Waiting]

The only problem that I have with this advice is that it moves one from the realms of saving into speculation. If one is planning to move to another country then purchasing that countries currency, or maybe arranging a forward contract to cover the purchase of property or business assets in that country is a good idea. Personally, I think that if one is not planning to move abroad then currency speculation is a high risk activity best left to the very wealthy, certainly an unwise activity for those trying to preservethe value of modest savings.

When investing, or saving, the best way to reduce risk is diversification. One should never ever "put all, or most, of your eggs in the same basket". Specially when the basket in case is a basket case! (Sorry, I could not resist it...) As the UK economy is right now - the worst in the developed world.

If now you are thinking that "all your expenses are in sterling", sorry again, most of the products we consume in Britain, including food, and even energy, is imported. The prices of products at Tesco, or at the petrol station, follow more the dollar than sterling.

[brightone]

When investing, or saving, the best way to reduce risk is diversification. One should never ever "put all, or most, of your eggs in the same basket". Specially when the basket in case is a basket case! (Sorry, I could not resist it...) As the UK economy is right now - the worst in the developed world.

If now you are thinking that "all your expenses are in sterling", sorry again, most of the products we consume in Britain, including food, and even energy, is imported. The prices of products at Tesco, or at the petrol station, follow more the dollar than sterling.

I agree that one should diversify, if and when, one has bought a home and provided for ones immediate needs .I hold around 40 % of my long term (ie 10 year plus) investments in non UK funds(EU, US and Far East). Most good brokers such as Bestinvest provide some excellent free modelling tools for this purpose. However, if I was offering advice to someone who is saving for their first home (or even investing a STR fund) , I would not encourage them to hold non sterling assets, unless of course they were planning to emigrate

Of course major retaillers purchse a significant amount of their products in currencies other than stering and will use forward contracts to cover risk. If one lives in the UK however, one has to use sterling to purchase from them. (Might be a good idea though, if you make regular trips to France to stock up on booze etc, to hold a few Euros.)

Edited February 27, 2010 by brightone