Today Programme This Morning

[Guest AuntJess]

This morning at 6.50am, there was a little feature on the stance of the housing market. The gist was that UK houses are 30% over-priced and that the signs are there for a crash... gazumping etc.as was in the run-up to the 1900's crash.

Altho' one contributor predicted 'slowing' the general feeling was that houses will be coming down, probably quite sharply.

It is getting into the 'mainstream' news, more often now.

Just thought I'd pass it on and cheer a few folk up.

[Frank Hovis]

This morning at 6.50am, there was a little feature on the stance of the housing market. The gist was that UK houses are 30% over-priced and that the signs are there for a crash... gazumping etc.as was in the run-up to the 1900's crash.

Altho' one contributor predicted 'slowing' the general feeling was that houses will be coming down, probably quite sharply.

It is getting into the 'mainstream' news, more often now.

Just thought I'd pass it on and cheer a few folk up.

Surprising for the lefty Today programme, they usually just trot out the Fabian stance and talk about affordable housing run by the state whilst smugly checking the latest valuation of their Islington townhouse.

To actually accept houses prices can fall, well they must have oicked up the wrong press release. Heads will roll.

[Cogs]

Surprising for the lefty Today programme, they usually just trot out the Fabian stance and talk about affordable housing run by the state whilst smugly checking the latest valuation of their Islington townhouse.

To actually accept houses prices can fall, well they must have oicked up the wrong press release. Heads will roll.

They have a three-part series running on being priced out of housing.

I heard the first one on Monday (priced out couple in Totnes). I presume this is the third installment?

[Guest Marvin Bush]

Indeed, mass-media is very selective of the news it releases.

Were you aware that the BBC reported the felling of building 7 some 20 minutes before it occurred? When challenged, they removed the offending video clip from their archives and then claimed that they had lost all footage connected with 911. Funny that.

Go to sleep sheeple. Sleep. What oil and gas crises?

[Fred]

Indeed, mass-media is very selective of the news it releases.

Were you aware that the BBC reported the felling of building 7 some 20 minutes before it occurred? When challenged, they removed the offending video clip from their archives and then claimed that they had lost all footage connected with 911. Funny that.

Here you go:

[Deny]

IMO the Today programme has really dumbed down, it has no teeth and is not half as incisive as it could be - none of the scrofulous politicians and business types get the hard time they ought to get from Humphreys et al, they can come on safe in the knowledge that they'll just get the cosy mollycoddling they would expect on the sofa with Andrew Marr on Sunday morning.

I'd withhold my licence fee in protest, but THEY KNOW WHERE I LIVE!

I wonder if some of it could be used to hire a necromancer to bring Sir Robin Day back from the dead.

[crashmonitor]

This morning at 6.50am, there was a little feature on the stance of the housing market. The gist was that UK houses are 30% over-priced and that the signs are there for a crash... gazumping etc.as was in the run-up to the 1900's crash.

Altho' one contributor predicted 'slowing' the general feeling was that houses will be coming down, probably quite sharply.

It is getting into the 'mainstream' news, more often now.

Just thought I'd pass it on and cheer a few folk up.

Yep,I was listening to that.The guru himself was on,Fred Harrison,and said that we were in the late stages of the winner's curse phase typified by gazumping.I have a lot of time for Fred,but I don't think this is a typical winner's curse phase since the market is already on its knees in most of the provinces and has been since 2005.He of course made reference to the 18 year cycle and in that respect his prophecy of 1999(the year Boom,bust and the depression of 2010 first came out but was re-edited in 2003) is materialising.Wrigglesworth spoke for the Bulls and said 6% interest rates would not cause a crash in a buoyant economy,Baserates would have to go another 2% higher(presuming from here to 7.5%)to crash the market.

Edited June 21, 2007 by crashmonitor

[@contradevian]

Indeed, mass-media is very selective of the news it releases.

Were you aware that the BBC reported the felling of building 7 some 20 minutes before it occurred? When challenged, they removed the offending video clip from their archives and then claimed that they had lost all footage connected with 911. Funny that.

Go to sleep sheeple. Sleep. What oil and gas crises?

I recall that being easily explained (though for the life of me I can't recall how). I don't believe in conspiracy theories only cockup theories, though the latter are obviously less exciting.

But to get back on topic, the BBC are brave revealing the undoing of Gordon's miracle when he is about to take over. As someone has already said "heads will roll."

[benjamin]

I'm old enough to remember the last crash but wasn't involved. does anyone recall if there was as much chatter before that crash as there seems to be building up now? i'm wondering if this pre-crash chatter will actually prepare people/ markets and in effect soften the blow. anyone care to respond?

[Guest AuntJess]

Surprising for the lefty Today programme, they usually just trot out the Fabian stance and talk about affordable housing run by the state whilst smugly checking the latest valuation of their Islington townhouse.

To actually accept houses prices can fall, well they must have oicked up the wrong press release. Heads will roll.

I have known them to swim against the tide on other occasions. There ae some quite bolshi influences in there, I suspect.

[crashmonitor]

I'm old enough to remember the last crash but wasn't involved. does anyone recall if there was as much chatter before that crash as there seems to be building up now? i'm wondering if this pre-crash chatter will actually prepare people/ markets and in effect soften the blow. anyone care to respond?

Absolutely not,since the previous cyclical crash which began in 1973 and lasted until about 1981 was masked by hyper-inflation so nobody believed house prices could actually fall.In April 1988 I completed on my second house for £29950(just under the then stamp duty threshold)and by the following spring it was worth £50000.On the eve of the crash, July 1989*, we were partying and thought houses were a one way bet.Little did I release that the house would only be worth £40000 seven years later,little did i release the fools holding cash would see their in vestments soar on the back of 15% interest rates by 1992.

*18 years from next month

Edited June 21, 2007 by crashmonitor

[Selling up]

I'm old enough to remember the last crash but wasn't involved. does anyone recall if there was as much chatter before that crash as there seems to be building up now? i'm wondering if this pre-crash chatter will actually prepare people/ markets and in effect soften the blow. anyone care to respond?

I paid no attention to the last crash but:

Doom and gloom in the media slowing a crash?

In the same way that irrational exuberance in the media has slowed the bubble?

No, doesn't ring true to me.

[Guest AuntJess]

Try this clip.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/radio4/today/listenagain/

6.30 - 700am. It should include the piece.

[SeenItAllBefore]

Yep,I was listening to that.The guru himself was on,Fred Harrison,and said that we were in the late stages of the winner's curse phase typified by gazumping.I have a lot of time for Fred,but I don't think this is a typical winner's curse phase since the market is already on its knees in most of the provinces and has been since 2005.He of course made reference to the 18 year cycle and in that respect his prophecy of 1999(the year Boom,bust and the depression of 2010 first came out but was re-edited in 2003) is materialising.Wrigglesworth spoke for the Bulls and said 6% interest rates would not cause a crash in a buoyant economy,Baserates would have to go another 2% higher(presuming from here to 7.5%)to crash the market.

Wrigglesworth is an Oxford educated economist, why does he not see that, if 6% interest rates cause a serious reduction in the amount of housing related borrowing and spending, we won't have a bloody buoyant economy?

What is it that happens to the reasoning powers of even intelligent, educated people during asset price manias?

[Guest Cletus VanDamme]

Surprising for the lefty Today programme, they usually just trot out the Fabian stance and talk about affordable housing run by the state whilst smugly checking the latest valuation of their Islington townhouse.

Absolutely spot on!

[DabHand]

I'm old enough to remember the last crash but wasn't involved. does anyone recall if there was as much chatter before that crash as there seems to be building up now? i'm wondering if this pre-crash chatter will actually prepare people/ markets and in effect soften the blow. anyone care to respond?

Almost entirely due to the internet. Mainstream very easily controlled or limited in its breadth of opinion. The only way you'd be able to spread and discuss a contrarian view would be with leaflets and a placard round your neck in the high street.

I honestly think there would be little to no discussion if the internet didnt exist. Although perhaps things are self evidently VERY bad this time, worse than 89.

Edited June 21, 2007 by DabHand

[TheSlump]

I have a long memory and back in 2002 on the You and Yours Radio 4 program Wrigglesworth conceded that 6% inflation would be a disaster for the housing market but that 6% IR would never happen.What's changed things so that it now takes 8% which he was talking about some time recently on Radio 4 or whatever he's saying this time?Could it be even more people having even more debt for even higher House prices since 2002?

[Guest Magrathea]

Wrigglesworth is an Oxford educated economist, why does he not see that, if 6% interest rates cause a serious reduction in the amount of housing related borrowing and spending, we won't have a bloody buoyant economy?

What is it that happens to the reasoning powers of even intelligent, educated people during asset price manias?

It isn't confusion, it's camouflage

They are doing their best to camouflage the truth; that real estate inflation / speculation comes at the expense of the general productive economy

If people understood this properly, they would reform the system and the free ride would be over

[margesimpson]

IMO the Today programme has really dumbed down, it has no teeth and is not half as incisive as it could be - none of the scrofulous politicians and business types get the hard time they ought to get from Humphreys et al, they can come on safe in the knowledge that they'll just get the cosy mollycoddling they would expect on the sofa with Andrew Marr on Sunday morning.

I'd withhold my licence fee in protest, but THEY KNOW WHERE I LIVE!

I wonder if some of it could be used to hire a necromancer to bring Sir Robin Day back from the dead.

The entire BBC's news and current affairs coverage has been dumbed down.

Compare today's six o'clock news with its namesake from a decade or two ago. What used to be called Newsround is now called Panorama.

[Gone baby gone]

It isn't confusion, it's camouflage

They are doing their best to camouflage the truth; that real estate inflation / speculation comes at the expense of the general productive economy

If people understood this properly, they would reform the system and the free ride would be over

Spot on. People like Wrigglesworth know that you can't keep the plates spinning for ever, but they don't want to admit that speculation on the back of cheap debt is the only thing now powering the property market (and many of the others).

For every person that thinks "how can expert ABC still think this, he seems a bright chap and was educated at the best instiutions we have?", there is someone else who thinks "I'm lazy and I'll let this expert do the my thinking for me".

[sossij]

IMO the Today programme has really dumbed down, it has no teeth and is not half as incisive as it could be - none of the scrofulous politicians and business types get the hard time they ought to get from Humphreys et al, they can come on safe in the knowledge that they'll just get the cosy mollycoddling they would expect on the sofa with Andrew Marr on Sunday morning.

I'd withhold my licence fee in protest, but THEY KNOW WHERE I LIVE!

I wonder if some of it could be used to hire a necromancer to bring Sir Robin Day back from the dead.

I recall that being easily explained (though for the life of me I can't recall how). I don't believe in conspiracy theories only cockup theories, though the latter are obviously less exciting.

But to get back on topic, the BBC are brave revealing the undoing of Gordon's miracle when he is about to take over. As someone has already said "heads will roll."

They had their teeth pulled after the Hutton Report. They rolled over and got hammered over the sexed up dossier scandal and the death of Dr David Kelly. Shameful.

[StoppedClock]

Wrigglesworth is an Oxford educated economist, why does he not see that, if 6% interest rates cause a serious reduction in the amount of housing related borrowing and spending, we won't have a bloody buoyant economy?

What is it that happens to the reasoning powers of even intelligent, educated people during asset price manias?

If only we could as Newton?

[@contradevian]

I'm old enough to remember the last crash but wasn't involved. does anyone recall if there was as much chatter before that crash as there seems to be building up now? i'm wondering if this pre-crash chatter will actually prepare people/ markets and in effect soften the blow. anyone care to respond?

I was involved, as I was selling a house at the very start of the last crash. Thing is you don't know you are in a crash till you are about 6-12 months into one (and actually trying to sell a house).

Also there was no internet then, so obviously a lot less chatter and you were reliant on newspapers and TV for news. They were almost certainly as useless then as they are today.

I suspect we will see a faster crash, because of the internet and the fast exchange of anecdotal information about various area's. Take this site for example.

[Guest Marvin Bush]

I recall that being easily explained (though for the life of me I can't recall how). I don't believe in conspiracy theories only cockup theories, though the latter are obviously less exciting.

But to get back on topic, the BBC are brave revealing the undoing of Gordon's miracle when he is about to take over. As someone has already said "heads will roll."

It hasn't been explained at all. No coherent narrative has ever existed. The media likes to use articles from Hearst Publishing's Popular Mechanics to debunk 911 demolition theories, especially the articles written by one Benjamin Chertoff - the cousin of the Secretary for Homeland Defense. You have no right to debate this issue or claim anything is easily explained unless you have done the legwork (which you have not done). Go away. Do some legwork.

It was obviously an inside job.

[Guest Cletus VanDamme]

Go away. Do some legwork.

It was obviously an inside job.

What legwork have you done, out of interest (beside reading prison planet)

There was some dodgy stuff with 911 for sure (the put options on American Airlines speaks volumes), but I'm more prepared to believe people with decades of engineering experience that some 20-year-old with an iMac who created an impressive video (loose change) but who now thinks he's an expert in aeronautical and civil engineering.