delboypass Posted September 13, 2008 Share Posted September 13, 2008 And Public sector booming in Aberdeen....LOOOL... Is that not why they are £50 million in the red... and closing schools, old people homes, leisure centres, organisations, projects.... Look down union street for the 'quality' of shops... you guys live in the clouds... Oil is all it has and thats it.... I.e. see the guy that bought the Bugatti...with the ferrari enzo in the drive (Oil sector) Also see Garreth woods moving away from aberdeen to edinburgh...as the rich move out to better locations as Aberdeen slides further down the pan... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delboypass Posted September 14, 2008 Share Posted September 14, 2008 Aberdeenshire - Most expensive rural housing...Yippee Looks like 'The Shire' has hit the headlines again....all for the wrong reasons for us... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The McGlashan Posted September 15, 2008 Share Posted September 15, 2008 Oil is all it has and thats it.... I think it's well-nigh time to give the lie to this misconception. Source: North East Scotland Economic Research Employment prospects, 2003 - 2021: (It is worth pointing out that these figures were calculated in 2003, so I would take the projection on construction industry jobs with a pinch of freshly ground deflationary crunch salt.) - Between 2003 and 2021, energy sector jobs in North East Scotland (which includes oil and gas and renewables) are expected to fall by 36% from 39,000 to 25,000. - This decline is expected to affect mostly oil and gas offshore workers. There are currently 18,000 offshore workers; by 2021 this figure is forecast to be 8,000. The decline in onshore workers is forecast to be less significant (26%). - Energy sector employment represents only 16% of the North East's total employment in 2003. - Between 2003 and 2021, employee jobs in North East Scotland are expected to decrease by 4.7% from 241,750 to 230,300. - Areas of growth are expected to be in the service sector (+1.7%), construction (+8%) and self employment sectors (+12%). - Employment contractions are expected in the primary (-21%), manufacturing (-14%) and energy sectors (-36%). Source: Behind the Granite, Aberdeen Key Facts 2007/8 Top 3 companies in Aberdeen: 1. First Group t/o £2.7 bn 2. Total SA t/o £1.9 bn 3. Grampian Country Foods £1.7 bn VAT registered companies in Aberdeen 2007 (by%): Agriculture 2% Production 9% Construction 8% Motor Trades 2% Wholesale and Retail 14% Hotels and Catering 7% Transport and Communication 4% Finance 1% Education and Health 1% Public Admin and Other Services 6% Property and Property Services 46% Wow. That last figure on property-related business is quite an eye-opener! Looks like the Aberdeen property boom is a classic Ponzi scheme bubble. The belief that the energy industry earnings can keep this bubble inflated is demonstrably incorrect. The property speculators, developers and buy-to-letters have been busy spinning the hamster wheel buying from and selling to each other with no particularly strong underlying fundamental strength in the market. Hold very tight please... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delboypass Posted September 15, 2008 Share Posted September 15, 2008 Lol...I dont believe these figures for a second... Is this the biggest earners that are VAT registered to Aberdeen??? No wonder the people who really earn the money arent listed then..? Biggest growth area....Self Employment.....LOOOLL....what the heck is that meant to mean...? If energy sector reduces by 36%..you might as well say good bye to Aberdeen... I personally think you will not see that many jobs lost as i said before Aberdeen will become the hub to serve the European areas with Houston remaining the primary area... On another note: still a hell of a lot of poles floating around aberdeen..noone seems to speak english in the city any more. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The McGlashan Posted September 15, 2008 Share Posted September 15, 2008 Lol...I dont believe these figures for a second... Check them out for yourself http://www.neser.org.uk/indicatorsheets.cfm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delboypass Posted September 15, 2008 Share Posted September 15, 2008 Oil pdf Good website McGlashan..some good reads in there... this article from your site states that 40,000 are employed in Aberdeen and (fricken stupid name) Shire... If aberdeen still has 200,000 surely that is 20% almost employed in oil and gas....?? Cant find the stats for population of Aberdeen and that of shire... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delboypass Posted September 15, 2008 Share Posted September 15, 2008 mcGlashan.. I dont get this table...you read this linky?? http://www.neser.org.uk/pdf/acs_energyreview2007.pdf If table is right, does that not mean aberdeen has had a population reduction of at least 20%?? No idea how to paste a table here..sorry But it says aberdeen annual change negative across all age ranges??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The McGlashan Posted September 16, 2008 Share Posted September 16, 2008 Oil pdfGood website McGlashan..some good reads in there... this article from your site states that 40,000 are employed in Aberdeen and (fricken stupid name) Shire... If aberdeen still has 200,000 surely that is 20% almost employed in oil and gas....?? Cant find the stats for population of Aberdeen and that of shire... http://www.neser.org.uk/datasheet.cfm?datasheetid=84 "While energy sector employment is very important in the North East... it represents only 16% of the North East's total employment in 2003." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The McGlashan Posted September 16, 2008 Share Posted September 16, 2008 (edited) mcGlashan..I dont get this table...you read this linky?? http://www.neser.org.uk/pdf/acs_energyreview2007.pdf If table is right, does that not mean aberdeen has had a population reduction of at least 20%?? No idea how to paste a table here..sorry But it says aberdeen annual change negative across all age ranges??? http://www.neser.org.uk/datasheet.cfm?datasheetid=73 "Between 1991 and 2007, the population of Aberdeen City and Shire rose from 429,990 to 448,420. This is an increase of 18,430 (+4.3%) and is the highest population over that period. "The population of Aberdeen City rose from 214,120 in 1991 to a peak of 219,880 in 1995, before declining gradually each year from 1996 to 2004. Since then the population has risen and now stands at 209,260. "Aberdeenshire’s population rose from 215,870 in 1991 to 239,160 in 2007. This is a 9.7% increase over the period." Edited September 16, 2008 by The McGlashan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The McGlashan Posted September 16, 2008 Share Posted September 16, 2008 Biggest growth area....Self Employment.....LOOOLL....what the heck is that meant to mean...?If energy sector reduces by 36%..you might as well say good bye to Aberdeen... I personally think you will not see that many jobs lost as i said before Aberdeen will become the hub to serve the European areas with Houston remaining the primary area... On another note: still a hell of a lot of poles floating around aberdeen..noone seems to speak english in the city any more. Self Employment: try it, you might like it. The wife and I have been self employed in the creative sector since about 1999. The vast majority of my friends and colleagues are self employed to a greater or lesser extent. Most operators in the North East's primary sector are self-employed. If there's something you do or want to do, a hobby or interest, perhaps you have a special skill, that you enjoy doing, see if you can find a way to productise it, then go and see the LEC and they'll help you set up to market it. Easy. Like many, you hold out hope for Aberdeen to become an oil & gas hub for europe, africa, etc. Well, this is just whistling past the graveyard; resource depletion is occurring in all provinces, not just GOM and UKCS. At the risk of repeating myself: Libya - current production = 1.4 m bbl/d, early 1970's production = 3.3m bbl/d Equatorial Guinea shines as the great hope for growth. Nice place. Russia at the peak last year, production down 1% since 2007. Citigroup: "Russian oil production growth is no longer to be taken for granted" Kazakhstan - 1 m b/d steady Algeria 1.3 m b/d steady Nigeria - current production = 1.2 - 1.5 m b/d, down from peak of 3.6 m in 1979 Angola - peaked at 1.2 m b/d in 2005 I'd welcome any more upbeat forecasts, if anyone can find them! You can find lots of info here: http://www.energybulletin.net/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delboypass Posted September 16, 2008 Share Posted September 16, 2008 Thanks But you fail to miss my point... Self-employeed is great headline but unfortunately you have to be self employeed to provide a service in a particular field..the figure itself is meaniless..all it means is more people trying to screw money out of the public purse through indirect taxation...so if 2% of the self employeed worked in oil and gas..it should be 18%.. And 16% of employment in Oil and Gas is a huge number by the way... That means for every 1 person employed in oil and gas, there are only 4 people doing a different job... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The McGlashan Posted September 16, 2008 Share Posted September 16, 2008 (edited) ThanksBut you fail to miss my point... Self-employeed is great headline but unfortunately you have to be self employeed to provide a service in a particular field..the figure itself is meaniless..all it means is more people trying to screw money out of the public purse through indirect taxation...so if 2% of the self employeed worked in oil and gas..it should be 18%.. And 16% of employment in Oil and Gas is a huge number by the way... That means for every 1 person employed in oil and gas, there are only 4 people doing a different job... Howdy DBP, I'm acutely aware that to be self employed it is necessary to provide a product or service in a particular field or fields and agree that the term itself is not an 'economic sector'. The NESER studies are pretty wishy-washy about this and, it seems to me, have failed to research what exactly this lump of self employment is, and in which sectors these self-employed individuals operate. They may be in danger of double-dipping in some sectors (primary sector and energy sector), while entirely missing other, less visible, sectors such as the creative industries which make a huge contribution and are predominantly operated by the self-employed and freelancers. http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2007/jun/2...ssandpublishing In 2004 the creative sector produced almost £1 in every £12 of the UK’s total GDP - a higher proportion than in any other country and contributed £11.5 billion to our balance of trade, more than the construction, insurance and pensions industries and twice that of the pharmaceutical sector. We have the largest creative sector in the EU and our creative industries accounted for 7.3 per cent of total UK Gross Value Added in 2005. (Source - The Design Council.) I must, therefore, take serious issue with your insulting contention that self employment is a merely means of screwing money from the public purse. In the US, if you intend to set up your own company, your friends and family will encourage you, support you by investing in the stock of your company and share in the financial rewards of your success. In Asia, if you want to set up on your own, your friends and family will support you by working in your business, helping you to become a success and sharing in your rewards as an integral part of your company. In the UK, if you intend to become self employed, your friends and family will tell you that it'll never work and that you're mad to try. When you become successful, they'll scratch your car. Finally, the fact that it is highly significant that 16% (1 to 5.25, not 1 to 4) of employment is in the energy sector is not in doubt, but it's a far way from being "all there is" in this town. The forthcoming fall-off in energy sector employment will, no doubt, have a detrimental knock-on effect on the North East's economy and will undermine house prices to a large extent, having a devastating effect on the significant proportion of businesses and individuals who have come to rely on the belief that "house prices only ever go up" as the foundation of their finances and security. Those of us who operate outwith these sectors will be well positioned to pick up the pieces for bargain prices at the bottom of the cycle. Edited September 16, 2008 by The McGlashan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delboypass Posted September 16, 2008 Share Posted September 16, 2008 Ok, since you probably run a limited company, how much PAYE do you take from you company and how much in dividends..You dont need to answer as anyone in the know already knows...Your wife the secretary too? Im not insulting you as I would do it too if i could.. its just the brainy people trying to get the best for themselves through any means possible... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delboypass Posted September 16, 2008 Share Posted September 16, 2008 Howdy DBP,Finally, the fact that it is highly significant that 16% (1 to 5.25, not 1 to 4) of employment is in the energy sector is not in doubt, but it's a far way from being "all there is" in this town. You fail to see the ramifications... The Money earning occupation is oil and gas as it is the only one producing revenue... If oil and gas was to disappear from aberdeen, watch the collapse of top end residental houses, multi-million pound commercial properties, high end car sales, restaurants, taxes, recruitment companies, helicopter staff, aberdeen airport, golf courses, pubs, universitys, research, sponserships... so what you going to do when all these people lose their jobs too?? The 1:5.25 is where the 5.25 are living off the cream of oil and gas... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The McGlashan Posted September 16, 2008 Share Posted September 16, 2008 Ok, since you probably run a limited company, how much PAYE do you take from you company and how much in dividends..You dont need to answer as anyone in the know already knows...Your wife the secretary too?Im not insulting you as I would do it too if i could.. its just the brainy people trying to get the best for themselves through any means possible... You are making wholly unwarranted and incorrect assumptions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The McGlashan Posted September 16, 2008 Share Posted September 16, 2008 You fail to see the ramifications...The Money earning occupation is oil and gas as it is the only one producing revenue... If oil and gas was to disappear from aberdeen, watch the collapse of top end residental houses, multi-million pound commercial properties, high end car sales, restaurants, taxes, recruitment companies, helicopter staff, aberdeen airport, golf courses, pubs, universitys, research, sponserships... so what you going to do when all these people lose their jobs too?? The 1:5.25 is where the 5.25 are living off the cream of oil and gas... I agree that the ramifications of the natural and inevitable oil & gas downturn will be serious for those who rely upon it. However, your thesis that the only money earning occupation is the energy sector is incorrect, as I have already demonstrated. I do not rely at all on any turnover generated in the NE, indeed, only about 0.5% of income for me (and many like me) comes from the UK. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delboypass Posted September 16, 2008 Share Posted September 16, 2008 You are making wholly unwarranted and incorrect assumptions. Ok, so you are self-employed...so what vehicle are you operating under?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The McGlashan Posted September 16, 2008 Share Posted September 16, 2008 Ok, so you are self-employed...so what vehicle are you operating under?? None of your business. But I can assure you that tax 'efficiency' is not my main concern for choice of entity; rather marketing, employee/subcontractor relations and contractual negotiations have much greater weight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delboypass Posted September 16, 2008 Share Posted September 16, 2008 None of your business. But I can assure you that tax 'efficiency' is not my main concern for choice of entity; rather marketing, employee/subcontractor relations and contractual negotiations have much greater weight. Lol, enjoy your dividends Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The McGlashan Posted September 17, 2008 Share Posted September 17, 2008 Lol, enjoy your dividends Oh Good Grief... Your eagerness to demonise us entrepreneurs as tax-evaders (which we largely are not) as opposed to the wealth-creating, employment-generating, value-adding contributors to this country's GDP and balance of trade (which we are) is an ample illustration of the spiteful envy so often leveled at us in this country and which I illustrated above. "In the US, if you intend to set up your own company, your friends and family will encourage you, support you by investing in the stock of your company and share in the financial rewards of your success. "In Asia, if you want to set up on your own, your friends and family will support you by working in your business, helping you to become a success and sharing in your rewards as an integral part of your company. "In the UK, if you intend to become self employed, your friends and family will tell you that it'll never work and that you're mad to try. When you become successful, they'll scratch your car." Perhaps you'd prefer if I were a debt-driven wage-slave cubicle-jockey; crushed by the unhuman commute, enriching far-off faceless investors by my toils. That is when I'm not going through the motions with displacement activity and clock-watching till 5 o'clock and the tea-time pint (or two) which I've convinced myself that I deserve. Digging ever deeper into the easy-credit overdraft of ersatz happiness and good cheer from the bank of Boozy Britain. Then an exhausted evening slumped in front of the plasma, ready-meal in one hand, lager in the other; conditioned by advertising-funded broadcasting to be a good consumer - a commercial commodity, bought, sold and delivered gift-wrapped to the corporations; endentured, bonded, enslaved by the upgrade cycle. Then the same again tomorrow... Well, no thanks, I prefer freedom. Over the months, I've noticed you adding more and more members to your hit-list of groups to blame for your own frustration and dissatisfaction. We've had several complaints from you about 'poles' and 'foreigners', high-earners and the council, but most recently 'clever people', the self-employed and even the weather are to blame for your malaise. Don't you realise that your own happiness is in your own hands? Your desire to profit from other's misery by migrating "to the first decent EU state that collapses and live like a king" - hypocritical in itself - speaks volumes about your venal philosophy of envy and avarice. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delboypass Posted September 17, 2008 Share Posted September 17, 2008 Not really, on one hand you were shooting down the self-employed oil workers who formed their own limited companies. But are yourself in a limited company. i have no fight with My only fight is with gordon brown. i would go limited if i could and wish you all teh best.. 2 fingers up to brown and darling.. We are on the same side and just want lower house prices ... and maybe a better road system linking key industrial areas of aberdeen.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The McGlashan Posted September 19, 2008 Share Posted September 19, 2008 Not really, on one hand you were shooting down the self-employed oil workers who formed their own limited companies.But are yourself in a limited company. i have no fight with My only fight is with gordon brown. i would go limited if i could and wish you all teh best.. 2 fingers up to brown and darling.. We are on the same side and just want lower house prices ... and maybe a better road system linking key industrial areas of aberdeen.. Fair play - sorry for going off half-cocked - pax. A better road system linking key industrial areas of Aberdeen. Ah - The AWPR! The AWPR is to be welcomed by those of us who would like to see a house price crash in Aberdeen. The McGlashan's Top Seven Reasons Why The AWPR Will Crash the Aberdeen Housing Market. 1. The route, as proposed, will section off significant proportions of the current green belt which are begging to be developed for housing. I note that a sizeable chunk of land at Hazlehead is already being proposed as a housing development. Other areas which are doubtless being eyed keenly by housing developers must surely include portions of Banchory Devenick, Milltimber, North Peterculter, Maryculter, Gairnhill, Silverburn and Contlaw, Cloghill etc, etc; all areas currently underutilised economically. An increase in the housing stock around Aberdeen will bring down house prices. 2. Areas 'blighted' by proximity to the new route may see a drop-off in demand, particularly in the Milltimber, Peterculter and Maryculter areas. In these otherwise salubrious areas, this will bring down house prices. 3. The PFI funding scheme to finance the construction of the route will place a significant tax overburden on the residents of city and shire for the next 30 years, making Aberdeen a less attractive and more expensive place to live, and bringing down house prices. 4. The route as planned extinguishes several public rights-of-way currently used by walkers, equestrians and cyclists to access the open countryside. By being effectively 'trapped' within the urban boundary, these users will find areas within the route a less attractive place to settle and will seek opportunities to move out of the city. This will bring down house prices. 5. Some hold out hope for tourism to take up the economic slack in Aberdeen 'when the oil runs out'. Experience up and down the country demonstrates the devastating effect that bypass schemes can have on the tourist sector in by-passed towns. Few enough tourists in Scotland bother with Aberdeen as things stand; the AWPR will make it easier still for tourists to ignore the city and its attractions, hotels, bars, restaurants, museums, theaters, concert-halls, etc. This will snuff out any hope to develop the tourist industry within Aberdeen. This will bring down house prices. 6. In the context of resource depletion and climate change, to many, the AWPR looks like last century's solution to today's transport problems. While other European, British and even American cities of similar size are examining modal transport shifts to light rail, trams, cycling, bus etc, Aberdeen insists on a motorway. It is possible that by the time the AWPR is complete in 2012 (?!) the only motorists who will be able to afford to use it will be those who are very well off, while all local tax payers will be paying for it deep into the second quarter of the century. Giving the appearance of turning Aberdeen into a town designed exclusively for motorists is a strategically embarrassing mis-step for our city fathers to take, and will make Aberdeen even more of a civic laughing-stock (as if that were possible!) This will bring down house prices. 7. During the construction of this major infrastructure project, thousands of construction industry jobs which might otherwise be at risk will be safeguarded. Following construction, these positions will become suddenly redundant. This will bring down house prices. All in all, perfect for those of us who would like to see sanity return to house prices in Aberdeen. Bring on the cut and fill! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
euan2020 Posted September 19, 2008 Share Posted September 19, 2008 hear that a local solicitors in Aberdeen is paying off 15 folk from their property department so - hitting aberdeen as well Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The McGlashan Posted September 19, 2008 Share Posted September 19, 2008 hear that a local solicitors in Aberdeen is paying off 15 folk from their property departmentso - hitting aberdeen as well Ooh, do tell! Paull & Williamsons? Aberdein Considine? Both were pretty active pushing ninja loans till earlier this year... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
euan2020 Posted September 20, 2008 Share Posted September 20, 2008 A & C Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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