Aberdeen, Aspc Stats

[Democorruptcy]

New oil giant boss confirms ‘substantial’ staff cuts are likely

shell’s restructuring could result in 10,000 jobs worldwide being lost, say analysts

By Ian Forsyth

Published: 31/07/2009

Peter Voser: “focus on costsâ€

More Pictures

THE new boss of oil giant Shell yesterday publicly admitted “substantial†staff cuts are likely among the worldwide workforce.

The comment from chief executive Peter Voser will heighten fears among the 2,000-plus people working from Aberdeen that they will be targeted.

Mr Voser refused to say how many posts among the global workforce of 102,000 could be under threat in the restructuring which started earlier this year. The company currently employs 8,500 people in the UK.

A Shell spokeswoman could give no breakdown on where jobs could go or how many, but said the reorganisation would be complete by the end of this year.

Mr Voser yesterday said the company had already reduced worldwide top management positions by about 150, down to 600.

Analysts expect up to 10,000 jobs worldwide could go at Shell.

Mr Voser said the restructuring – Transition 2009 – would simplify the company. He said: “Shell needs to become a more efficient company, with faster decision-making, sharper implementation of strategy, and more focus on costs and value. Transition 2009 is the beginning of that change.â€

One Aberdeen worker said everyone in Shell’s operation locally was still in the dark. “It’s also a bit of a surprise that the company plans to have the exercise done by the end of this year, this sort of thing would normally take it years,†added the worker.

Jake Molloy, regional organiser for the RMT union in Aberdeen, said he had heard Shell was planning to cut 20% of staff involved in engineering and support at the Shell offices in the Granite City.

He did not expect much impact on Shell’s offshore workforce, however. Shell yesterday announced a 70% slide in profits to £1.4billion in the second quarter of 2009.

The UK-Dutch company’s boss said the weak global economy had impacted its performance in the second quarter.

Mr Voser said: “Energy demand is weak. There is excess capacity in the market, and industry costs remain high.

“Conditions are likely to remain challenging for some time, and we are not banking on a quick recovery.â€

The chief executive said Shell had a number of initiatives under way to reduce costs.

Collins Stewart analyst Gordon Gray expects Shell's restructuring drive to continue into next year.

He said: “From Shell’s statements, it seems clear that Mr Voser views the 2009 plan as only the beginning of the changes needed to transform the company.

“We expect the company to ultimately cut several thousand of its 102,000 employees, and believe additional cost gains from the restructuring could be in excess of £1.22billion,†added Mr Gray.

http://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/Article.aspx/1332845/

[cashinmattress]

Sixty jobs face axe at oil service company

Oil service firm Schlumberger has dealt the north-east another jobs blow, warning that nearly 60 positions are at risk in Aberdeen.

Yesterday’s revelation by the Houston-based firm came just days after oil giant Shell said “substantial†staff cuts were likely among its global workforce.

Other companies have already axed posts or hinted at redundancies in the north-east as the combined impact of the global recession, weaker energy demand and a plunge in oil prices from last year’s record high takes its toll on the wider sector.

Schlumberger said 58 jobs were under threat at its Dyce-based drilling and measurements division.

A spokeswoman for the firm added: “This is a result of the reduced level of activity within the oil field services sector as customers reduce their exploration and production expenditure.â€

She said a consultation started on Thursday and any redundancies would take effect from the beginning of September.

Schlumberger employs 1,700 people in the Aberdeen area and around 3,500 in the UK out of an 82,000-strong workforce worldwide.

A total of 240 work at the drilling and measurements operation at Dyce.

[cashinmattress]

80 workers facing axe from Aberdeen oil company

AN ABERDEEN oil firm looked set to fold this afternoon with the potential loss of 80 jobs.

Administrators were expected to be called into Stable Oilfield Services Limited firm because of cash-flow problems.

It was understood the company had a bulging order book but was unable to pay for materials needed for work because it couldn’t get bank loans.

Around 80 jobs could be lost at the firm, which has two bases in Aberdeen and offices around the world.

An offshore union leader this afternoon said he expected more North-east jobs to go as a result of falling oil prices.

No one from the company was available to comment.

A rescue operation was launched over the weekend as the firm – based at Kirkhill Industrial Estate in Dyce and with an office in Aberdeen’s Murcar area – struggled to find investors.

But today bosses had been unable to come up with the cash to keep the company afloat and administrators were expected to be called in later.

Jake Molloy, of the RMT union in Aberdeen, said: “There are a lot of job losses going on across the sector.â€

[The McGlashan]

RoS June data for Aberdeen.

Average price:

-11.5% from July 07 peak. (volume less than half)

+0.6% MoM (volume steady)

-4.3% YoY. (volume -30%)

Surprisingly, and notwithstanding the noisiness of monthly figures, the spring bounce in Aberdeen seems to have stalled.

Aberdeen's monthly annual house price change has now been negative for more than a year.

Total quarterly market value and volume:

[cashinmattress]

Scottish Agenda: North Sea oil still has a platform for success

Scotland’s North Sea oil and gas industry was, until fairly recently, seen as a rock. In the eyes of many — including Alex Salmond’s government, which recently renewed calls for an oil fund — it would remain immune to the credit crunch and could be relied upon to give impetus to our otherwise clapped-out economy.

Oilfield services companies, particularly those with a technological or managerial edge, were in vogue with banks and private equity houses; valuations and deal-making activity were holding up rather nicely.

Unfortunately the worst slump in global demand for oil since 1980, halving the oil price from $147.50 (£88.49) per barrel last July to $72, has put an end to the party.

Drilling activity in the North Sea has slowed considerably, with a recent Deloitte report showing just 15 exploration and appraisal wells “spudded†between April and June, a 57% fall on the same period last year.

This is making life much tougher than expected in Aberdeen’s oil services sector, and there have been increasingly desperate calls for a more favourable tax regime.

Now the fallout is being felt. Last week, 36 people were laid off by Stable Holdings after the once rapidly expanding Aberdeen-based drill-bit provider failed to secure further working capital from Royal Bank of Scotland and went into administration.

Ten days ago, the Houston-based multinational Schlumberger said 58 jobs at its Dyce-based drilling and measurements division were at risk, while BP and Royal Dutch Shell recently confirmed plans for massive job cuts.

BP wants to slash costs by $3bn this year and recently warned suppliers it would no longer tolerate overcharging. Tony Hayward, its chief executive, said: “We’ve not really begun to get costs in the supply chain back to where they need to be for a $60 world.â€

The picture at Shell is no better. This year it intends to lay off up to 10% off its 102,000 global workers, including 8,500 staff in the UK. The majority will be white-collar staff.

And the former energy minister Malcolm Wicks, now the Westminster government’s special envoy on energy security, last week admitted it would be impossible for the decline in Britain’s offshore industry to be stemmed.

However, it is not all doom and gloom. The battle for Venture Production, which Centrica is seeking to acquire for £1.3bn, and the recent spate of acquisitions by Taqa Bratani, the UK arm of the Abu Dhabi National Energy Company, reveals there are some who remain optimistic. Taqa, which on August 1 took the Brent system from Shell, will be one to watch in the coming months. The French energy group GDF Suez has committed to opening a £6m exploration and production hub in Aberdeen, a move expected to create 80 jobs over the next 12 months.

After all, there are meant to be 25m barrels of oil left beneath the North Sea’s inky waves. Given that the International Energy Agency now predicts that “peak oil†will be reached a decade earlier than previously thought, it probably won’t be long before the oil price rises again.

More of the same. Belt tightening etc...

[The McGlashan]

Latest unemployment figures published today:

http://www.statistics.gov.uk/StatBase/Product.asp?vlnk=15084

Another sharp rise in Aberdeen unemployment.

Now up 72% YoY and 83% from its Dec 07 low.

[thirdeye]

Latest unemployment figures published today:

http://www.statistics.gov.uk/StatBase/Product.asp?vlnk=15084

Another sharp rise in Aberdeen unemployment.

Now up 72% YoY and 83% from its Dec 07 low.

And the future doesn't look particularly rosy.

http://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/Article.a...348962?UserKey=

[cashinmattress]

Same as previous post, except from Pravda...

Thousands of jobs 'under threat'

New business opportunities must be grasped to offset thousands of possible job losses in Aberdeen and Aberdeenshire, it has been warned.

A new report by Aberdeen City and Shire Economic Future (Acsef) predicted the net loss of 6,000 local jobs during the current economic downturn.

It is hoped the number could be regained over the coming decade.

Acsef highlighted areas of opportunity such as tourism, exports, and older skilled workers returning.

The report, commissioned by Scottish Enterprise, forecasted the local economy would shrink by 2.7% during 2009, before beginning to recover.

'Key roles'

Acsef chairman Tom Smith said: "We must focus on the opportunities that are inevitably arising as a result of the recession.

"At a time when there may be a bit of slack, businesses need to innovate and Acsef welcomes the work by Scottish Enterprise which offers companies advice and assistance in coming up with real innovation to give them a competitive edge.

"However, Acsef can only do so much and our politicians, both local and national, as well as the banks will play key roles in the recovery."

Scottish Enterprise regional director Maggie McGinlay, said: "The findings will play an important role in helping to inform our priorities for future investment and allow us to achieve the greatest value and economic impact."

Where is Hamass McTwat? Surely he has to acknowledge that the economy here is not immune by now, after all, he's been losing money on two properties for almost two years now.

EDIT: We are actually getting hit harder than the rest of Scotland.

Downturn hits north east hardest

Business leaders have pledged to take action after figures revealed the north east of Scotland could be hardest hit by the recession.

A new report suggests that across the country Aberdeen and Aberdeenshire will see a greater fall in economic output and a slower rate of recovery.

The report, commissioned by Scottish Enterprise, predicted that the region's economic output will shrink by 2.7% this year, compared to 2.5% Scotland-wide.

Edited August 12, 2009 by cashinmattress

[The McGlashan]

Here are some new graphs I've drawn up which show the seasonal position in Aberdeen. All from RoS data.

[The McGlashan]

ASPC For sale

Today (13 Aug 2009)

For sale : 1088

Added in last week : 83 (7.6%)

Added in last month : 333 (31%)

Over a month : 755 (69%)

Large uplift in homes coming on to the market this week, compared with last month.

compared to last month (14 June 2009)

For sale : 1103

Added in last week : 45 (4%)

Added in last month : 307 (28%)

Over a month : 796 (72%)

ASPC for lease

For lease today : 299

Added in last week : 25 (8.3%)

Added in last month : 124 (41%)

Over a month : 175 (59%)

compared to last month (14 June 2009)

For lease: 291

Added in last week: 28 (9.5%)

Added in last month: 127 (45%)

Over a month: 164 (56%)

[AThirdWay]

ASPC For sale

Today (13 Aug 2009)

For sale : 1088

Added in last week : 83 (7.6%)

Added in last month : 333 (31%)

Over a month : 755 (69%)

Large uplift in homes coming on to the market this week, compared with last month.

compared to last month (14 June 2009)

For sale : 1103

Added in last week : 45 (4%)

Added in last month : 307 (28%)

Over a month : 796 (72%)

ASPC for lease

For lease today : 299

Added in last week : 25 (8.3%)

Added in last month : 124 (41%)

Over a month : 175 (59%)

compared to last month (14 June 2009)

For lease: 291

Added in last week: 28 (9.5%)

Added in last month: 127 (45%)

Over a month: 164 (56%)

Hmm, slightly weaker letting figures. Should make the BTL brigade nervous. Isn't this about the time the students start moving in?

Sale figures seem to indicate that Aberdeen has seen a uplift in sales though. 333 added in last month, but amount for sale down 15 from June? Probably seasonal......

Quick edit to say thanks for the info McGlashan!

Edited August 13, 2009 by AThirdWay

[The McGlashan]

And the future doesn't look particularly rosy.

http://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/Article.a...348962?UserKey=

Same as previous post, except from Pravda...

Thousands of jobs 'under threat'

Where is Hamass McTwat? Surely he has to acknowledge that the economy here is not immune by now, after all, he's been losing money on two properties for almost two years now.

EDIT: We are actually getting hit harder than the rest of Scotland.

Downturn hits north east hardest

thirdeye, cashinmattress,

The report which these articles reference is here and is quite the most bearish thing I have ever read in relation to the economy of the North East.

This is in contrast to the usual panglossian stuff that comes out of ACSEF, such as last years risible 'Energetica' pie-in-the-sky nonsense.

The new economic review document blows the whistle by at last noticing that when the contribution to GVA of oil and gas are excluded, the full Dutch Disease pathology of Aberdeen is confirmed:

Economic growth in Aberdeen City & Shire has lagged behind the Scottish and UK averages since 1999. Annual GVA growth in the region was lower than the UK for most of the period between 1999 and 2006

The report includes such eyebrow-raising observations as:

In output terms, the region is expected to begin to recover from the downturn in 2010. As the recovery will be largely service sector led, the region will experience a weaker upturn than most other regions in Scotland. Over the period 2011–2018, growth is expected to average 2.6% per annum, compared to 2.9% for Scotland and 3.3% for the UK... as the recovery from the current downturn will be largely service sector led, the region will experience a weaker upturn than most other regions in Scotland, meaning that the gap between GVA growth rates in Aberdeen City & Shire and the UK could widen over the next 10 years

And, as well as forecasting the loss of 11500 jobs over 2009-10, goes on to say:

the region will not return to its 2008 employment level until after 2018.

A lost decade for Aberdeen.

Oh dear.

[thirdeye]

Thanks for the info McG. - Including the addition to my economic vocabulary (Dutch Disease)

[abdn]

morning all,

have never bothered to post/register on here before because i really canna be arsed with all the infighting and bitching that seems to go on within these forums...especially all the "i'm righter than thou" brigade... and those people who are actually gleeful that peoples lives are being ruined by taking out mortgages they can no longer afford are complete w*nkers imho... there but for the grace of god goes you and I Etc.....

anyway rant over..... have been looking to buy (within 20 miles outside of abdn) since 2007, and have been blown out of the water by OO 8 times now... so started to check stats out online and came across this thread last year.

So here are my stats to say thanks to those people who actually contribute and don't just go around biting ankles.

taken from aspc for the whole of aberdeenshire (for sale numbers only)

date..........house.........flat...........total

25/09/08...2233.........1072.........3309

12/01/09...2116 .........828......... 2945

18/02/09...2018 .........714 .........2733

02/03/09...1982 .........692 .........2675

17/03/09...1969 .........682 .........2652

19/05/09...1846 .........603 .........2450

19/06/09...1791 .........569 .........2361

01/07/09...1780 .........563 .........2344

07/07/09...1766 .........583 .........2350

17/07/09...1752 .........586 .........2339

28/07/09...1741 .........593 .........2355

10/08/09...1721 .........597 .........2319

14/08/09...1707 .........579 .........2287

don't know how much aspc charge for listing properties but their revenue has taken a dive this last year going on these figures

and one final thing.....

http://www.home.co.uk/search/price_info.ht...perty=286947377

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sa...y-23021824.html

EEK 50k drop!! (was advertised at 200k yesterday....is this part of rightmoves strategy for claiming hpi even though 3 days ago this was fixed at 270k on aspc??)

[The McGlashan]

morning all,

have never bothered to post/register on here before because i really canna be arsed with all the infighting and bitching that seems to go on within these forums...especially all the "i'm righter than thou" brigade... and those people who are actually gleeful that peoples lives are being ruined by taking out mortgages they can no longer afford are complete w*nkers imho... there but for the grace of god goes you and I Etc.....

anyway rant over..... have been looking to buy (within 20 miles outside of abdn) since 2007, and have been blown out of the water by OO 8 times now... so started to check stats out online and came across this thread last year.

So here are my stats to say thanks to those people who actually contribute and don't just go around biting ankles.

taken from aspc for the whole of aberdeenshire (for sale numbers only)

date..........house.........flat...........total

25/09/08...2233.........1072.........3309

12/01/09...2116 .........828......... 2945

18/02/09...2018 .........714 .........2733

02/03/09...1982 .........692 .........2675

17/03/09...1969 .........682 .........2652

19/05/09...1846 .........603 .........2450

19/06/09...1791 .........569 .........2361

01/07/09...1780 .........563 .........2344

07/07/09...1766 .........583 .........2350

17/07/09...1752 .........586 .........2339

28/07/09...1741 .........593 .........2355

10/08/09...1721 .........597 .........2319

14/08/09...1707 .........579 .........2287

don't know how much aspc charge for listing properties but their revenue has taken a dive this last year going on these figures

and one final thing.....

http://www.home.co.uk/search/price_info.ht...perty=286947377

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sa...y-23021824.html

EEK 50k drop!! (was advertised at 200k yesterday....is this part of rightmoves strategy for claiming hpi even though 3 days ago this was fixed at 270k on aspc??)

Hiya abdn, and welcome.

Well done with collecting and collating those stats, looks like a pretty linear decline over this year so far. As you'll see above, I've been listing the 'for sale' and 'for let' stats from ASPC for Aberdeen only for the last couple of months, so it's very helpful that you've looked at the whole 'Aberdeen housing area'.

WRT your introductory comments, those people who have taken out mortgages they can no longer afford have nothing to blame for their predicament except their own grasping cupidity and gullibility. You say 'there but for the grace of god...', yet you have wisely resisted borrowing more than you can afford.

You seem to want cheaper houses, as do I. This will, inevitably involve a modicum of misery for the over-extended. You can't make an omelette without breaking eggs, and you can't make a revolution without breaking heads. I would add that you can't devalue an entire asset class without teaching over-extended arriviste fashion-victim debt-junkies a valuable lesson in old fashioned household economics. I have no sympathy for them - they acted like big-shots on the way up, yet have no concept of what value and wealth-creating enterprise actually is. All the time they were mistaking debt for wealth and price for value.

Tough.

[abdn]

those people who have taken out mortgages they can no longer afford have nothing to blame for their predicament except their own grasping cupidity and gullibility

I have no sympathy for them

no argument from me on that score - was just making a general observation about some users that's all (luckily they mainly seem to be restricted to the 'House prices and the economy' forum )

on another note another small business goes under

Sport business in administration

Tenon urged interested parties to make contact as soon as possible

An Aberdeenshire activities centre has gone into administration.

Kingscliff Sporting Lodge near Ellon is believed to have fallen victim to the current economic climate.

It has a pool of about 15 staff and offers clay pigeon shooting, quad biking and fishing, along with a golf academy and conference facilities.

Administrators Tenon Recovery said the business had good growth potential and would be well placed to capitalise on the economic recovery when it comes.

Tenon urged interested parties to make contact as soon as possible

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/north_east/8201421.stm

[The McGlashan]

no argument from me on that score - was just making a general observation about some users that's all (luckily they mainly seem to be restricted to the 'House prices and the economy' forum )

on another note another small business goes under

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/north_east/8201421.stm

It is, of course, regrettable that around 15 people (some part-time) should lose their jobs. However, it is clear that very little productive value is actually added by ventures like these. Money changes hands, yes undoubtedly, but these 'activity providers' are simply rent-seeking. (A common enough activity in this 'Dutch Disease' region.)

It seems that they contribute only 'perceived added value' by cynically exploiting those who gullibly believe that something can only be worthwhile if it is paid for: 'The formal to the real subsumption of leisure under capital'.

Contrary to the beliefs of the over-urbanised clients of 'outdoor centres' like these - a day out in the countryside can actually cost nothing!

IMHO, ventures like these form merely the froth on the top of the bubble: at the height of the boom, it is possible to get away with many business models which prove to be unsustainable throughout the entirety of the economic cycle. (Bicycle couriers, for instance, tend to appear at peak bubble only - and are then a forgotten phenomenon until the peak of the next economic cycle - every generation re-invents the bicycle courier for itself.)

When the tide goes out, we find out who's not wearing any trunks.

Edited August 14, 2009 by The McGlashan

[Dive Stations]

Wise words indeed, although I will need to immediately go and look up the definition of Dutch disease. Always a shame when small enterprises go out of businees , however assume that that working there must have been a hoot while it lasted.

Apparently the word on the street is that Europe is on the way out of recession based on the recent German and Frence data and UK will no doubt be following shortly and the housing market will follow in close proximity. You know what they say 'Lies, Damn Lies and statistics'?

New to the forum folks and so much in need of enlightenment so any thoughts on where the Aberdeen market goes from here would be much appreciated. Was thinking of jumping in and buying around 2007 but the banks started falling over etc before I splashed the cash. Having read some of the info on here I think I might have have had a close escape.

[The McGlashan]

Wise words indeed, although I will need to immediately go and look up the definition of Dutch disease. Always a shame when small enterprises go out of businees , however assume that that working there must have been a hoot while it lasted.

Apparently the word on the street is that Europe is on the way out of recession based on the recent German and Frence data and UK will no doubt be following shortly and the housing market will follow in close proximity. You know what they say 'Lies, Damn Lies and statistics'?

New to the forum folks and so much in need of enlightenment so any thoughts on where the Aberdeen market goes from here would be much appreciated. Was thinking of jumping in and buying around 2007 but the banks started falling over etc before I splashed the cash. Having read some of the info on here I think I might have have had a close escape.

Hi Dive Stations, and welcome.

While the 'noises off' of an inventory-clearing-led (very) marginal improvement in industrial output in France and Germany might offer some small chink light at the end of the tunnel for UK exporters who's primary markets are in the Eurozone, it is difficult for us to see how this will affect the Aberdeen housing market.

Rather, we might conclude that the Eurozone's 'Social Model' has proven to be a more sensible and resilient economic model than our devil-take-the-hindmost 'Anglo Saxon Model' of casino capitalism. Our Eurozone colleagues might feel vindicated that their manufacturing-based economies may be in better shape that those of the Anglosphere where glum, stern Mervyn announces an acceleration in QE and a worse-than-previously-forecast outlook for our souflee economy.

Our model has been revealed to provide only a hollow illusion of prosperity which, it has now turned out, was merely borrowing value and wealth from the future all the time. And what's more, the unique and unprecidented monetary and fiscal medicine required to bail out the system consolidates this debt to the future which we all now owe. Yay even unto the nth generation.

Hirst sums it up with his 'outrage art':

"For the Love of God"

Much more apposite to the Aberdeen economy, and therefore house prices, is the breaking news that the financial crisis has reached West Africa, where many of our locally-based oil-service companies generate up to 40% of their revenue.

If you want to keep up to date with the Aberdeen economy, I suggest you take a look at cashinmattress' posts - he keeps a watching brief on local industry and business news.

ACSEF recently published their local economic review which you might like to check out here.

http://www.acsef.co.uk/uploads/reports/2/A...9%20(final).pdf

DECC keep a watching brief on the oil industry here:

http://www.decc.gov.uk/en/content/cms/stat...ukes/dukes.aspx

Good Luck.

[pyracantha]

Wise words indeed, although I will need to immediately go and look up the definition of Dutch disease.

Go back to the 1st posting with this term (it's underlined and is a hypertext link)

[The McGlashan]

Mixed bag forecast for NE oil patch.

http://www.offshore247.com/news/art.aspx?Id=14457

Wellbore and offshore-focussed players are expected to report poor visibility for future work while engineering procurement and construction (EPC) companies are forecast for good visibility and stable contract margins.

No surprises, really.

[cashinmattress]

Oil service firm reveals 90 jobs face axe

Acergy staff in Westhill at risk

NEARLY 100 jobs in the Aberdeen area are at risk as oil services’ firm Acergy announced it could shed 20% of its staff.

Acergy, whose base is at Westhill and employs about 500 people in the Aberdeen area, said up to 90 jobs could be axed.

The firm, which carries out engineering and construction for the oil industry, told Aberdeen workers that “jobs across the board†could be affected.

Acergy managing director Graham Meil said: “We have started a consultation process with staff. It could affect up to 90 staff, but I hope it will be less. We have seen a slow down in our market.â€

The potential jobs blow at Acergy’s Westhill site comes after all but eight of Stable Oilfield Services’ 79 staff at Dyce were made redundant earlier this month.

[Tob the Blether]

North Sea oil exploration suffering as banks refuse to lend - Times Online

What is to be done?

[The McGlashan]

ASPC For sale

Today (3 Sept 2009)

For sale : 1095

Added in last week : 93 (8.5%) Big increase in units coming on to market

Added in last month : 370 (34%)

Over a month : 725 (66%)

compared to last month (31 July 2009)

For sale : 1073

Added in last week : 58 (5.4%)

Added in last month : 300 (28%)

Over a month : 773 (72%)

Looks like vendors are gaining confidence from the recent media reports of 'crash-over' recovery. Many more units are coming onto the market in the weekly and monthly measure. There is some evidence that a supply shortage has been supporting prices - now that this shortage is easing, what can we expect for prices? (There are still only HALF the number of units coming on to the market compared to summer 2007.)

ASPC for lease

For lease today : 284

Added in last week : 25 (9%)

Added in last month : 140 (49%)

Over a month : 144 (51%)

compared to last month (31 July 2009)

For lease: 313

Added in last week : 27 (8.6%)

Added in last month : 123 (40%)

Over a month : 190 (60%)

Edited September 3, 2009 by The McGlashan

[ccc]

ASPC For sale

Today (3 Sept 2009)

For sale : 1095

Added in last week : 93 (8.5%) Big increase in units coming on to market

Added in last month : 370 (34%)

Over a month : 725 (66%)

compared to last month (31 July 2009)

For sale : 1073

Added in last week : 58 (5.4%)

Added in last month : 300 (28%)

Over a month : 773 (72%)

Looks like vendors are gaining confidence from the recent media reports of 'crash-over' recovery. Many more units are coming onto the market in the weekly and monthly measure. There is some evidence that a supply shortage has been supporting prices - now that this shortage is easing, what can we expect for prices? (There are still only HALF the number of units coming on to the market compared to summer 2007.)

ASPC for lease

For lease today : 284

Added in last week : 25 (9%)

Added in last month : 140 (49%)

Over a month : 144 (51%)

compared to last month (31 July 2009)

For lease: 313

Added in last week : 27 (8.6%)

Added in last month : 123 (40%)

Over a month : 190 (60%)

Pent up supply. Put a post on the main forum about a year ago about this. Any recovery will be short lived as the market is saturated with those who have been 'sitting it out or 'renting it out' instead.

As soon as the market improves and prices stabilise - they will dive back in. Hence having a negative impact on that very same market. HPC ammunition for the future is lying there waiting to be fired. And there is a lot of this. Long drawn out slide is looking more and more likely every day. This is the view from a seller.

Down :angry:

Down :angry:

Not down so much

Almost stabilised

Prices rising !!

House on the market woohoo !!

Supply shoots up :angry:

Back to square one.

Repeat this for 5 years and I reckon we have the outlook for house prices in this country. Will have to wait and see.