malco Posted May 10, 2006 Share Posted May 10, 2006 Long term gold bug argues that we are ready for a correction as gold is very overbought. I hope he's right! http://www.zealllc.com/2006/goldtwo3.htm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinny Posted May 10, 2006 Share Posted May 10, 2006 Long term gold bug argues that we are ready for a correction as gold is very overbought. I hope he's right! http://www.zealllc.com/2006/goldtwo3.htm This is what I have been saying. There is a time and place for every thing. It is risky to add to your gold position at THIS juncture. The 100% bullishness on other threads makes me think I may be right. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cgnao Posted May 10, 2006 Share Posted May 10, 2006 Yeah right. Many so called "experts" have been calling a correction since at least 150 USD ago... Fooling everyone, this is the hallmark of true bull markets. Gold is still very cheap compared to all other assets. And real interest rates are well into negative territory. And a the mother of all short squeezes is coming. Protect yourselves. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinny Posted May 10, 2006 Share Posted May 10, 2006 Yeah right. Many so called "experts" have been calling a correction since at least 150 USD ago... Fooling everyone, this is the hallmark of true bull markets. Gold is still very cheap compared to all other assets. And real interest rates are well into negative territory. And a the mother of all short squeezes is coming. Protect yourselves. cgnao. There have been at least minor setbacks along the way from 555 - 700. That is all I am saying. We MAY be due a bigger fall and consolidation before, as I expect, we move much higher. I think you are right that holding SOME gold. I think at least 10 - 20%% of a portfolio is advisable at this point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest boredwaiting Posted May 10, 2006 Share Posted May 10, 2006 Gold is still very cheap compared to all other assets. And real interest rates are well into negative territory. And a the mother of all short squeezes is coming. would you still buy at the current prices? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FTBagain Posted May 10, 2006 Share Posted May 10, 2006 I'm just a small investor and I am amazed at the 'profits' over the last few weeks. I am reluctant to put more of my hard earned cash into Gold because of the obvious risks of been taken to the cleaners by more experienced traders. So that leaves me with the option of selling at a peak and then buying pack in. Easy! Yeh! Right. Last time I tried this I lost. Not much, but... I believe that this bull run has a long way to go yet, long term. Short term, I think there will be a pull back, but will it be a strong or week pull back.? The other issue is I am in Stirling. I have made big gains in Stirling as Stirling has risen, a dollar pull back may cause the Pound to fall.... agghhhh! I think I'll hold for now. Another point that occurs, is that I have been watching Gold track Oil prices. It occured to me that when Gold pulls away from Oil then some different would be happening. I was rather please to see a similar point made regarding the euro price vs the dollar price. I'm learing. A pull away in Gold from Oil (and other commodities) would be an interesting moment. Would that indicate a stage 3 move? ie lots of people piling into Gold with bucket loads of MEW'ed cash. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
urban_hymn Posted May 10, 2006 Share Posted May 10, 2006 I am reluctant to put more of my hard earned cash into Gold because of the obvious risks of been taken to the cleaners by more experienced traders. The way to beat the traders is to buy and hold. I've been in gold in a big way (for me at least) for about 18 months. There have been no pullbacks of any kind worth worrying about in that time. It's a bull market and I belive it will reward determined holders and punish those who bottle out. No pain no gain! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted May 10, 2006 Share Posted May 10, 2006 would you still buy at the current prices? Bart asked me this at $575, a couple of weeks back. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minos Posted May 10, 2006 Share Posted May 10, 2006 Yeah right. Many so called "experts" have been calling a correction since at least 150 USD ago... Fooling everyone, this is the hallmark of true bull markets. Gold is still very cheap compared to all other assets. And real interest rates are well into negative territory. And a the mother of all short squeezes is coming. Protect yourselves. Why is the mother of all short squeezes coming ? Surely they are already squeezed and each move up increases the pain. One thing I haven't yet got my head around is do these short positions have a time limit ? Is it possible to find out when short contracts have to be settled by ? Is this what you mean by 'coming' - the positions will soon have to be settled ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Unexpected Posted May 10, 2006 Share Posted May 10, 2006 This is what I have been saying. There is a time and place for every thing. It is risky to add to your gold position at THIS juncture. The 100% bullishness on other threads makes me think I may be right. I just bought another 5k worth this morning. IMO it is risky NOT to add to your gold position at this juncture. None of this waiting for pullbacks has worked this past year because the pullbacks have been too small. And I just talked a (property only ever goes up type) guy at my work to buy his first 5k too. To me this is a highly bullish signal considering he was laughing about me being a gold bug a few months ago. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinny Posted May 10, 2006 Share Posted May 10, 2006 I just bought another 5k worth this morning. IMO it is risky NOT to add to your gold position at this juncture. None of this waiting for pullbacks has worked this past year because the pullbacks have been too small. And I just talked a (property only ever goes up type) guy at my work to buy his first 5k too. To me this is a highly bullish signal considering he was laughing about me being a gold bug a few months ago. I stand by what I have said. I could best describe ANY of my investment calls as being a call on high probability rather than absolute certainty of what may happen. I get many things wrong. My recent gold call would be in good and numbered company if we go on much futher from here. Gold MAY not pull back at this stage. BUT I think it probably will. If I am wrong, so be it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Unexpected Posted May 10, 2006 Share Posted May 10, 2006 I could best describe ANY of my investment calls as being a call on high probability rather than absolute certainty of what may happen. Well this would be the best case scenario with any good investment. The legal ones that is. Nothing is certain in the investment world but IMO the best plan is one you make and stick to so I'll just continue buying every time the POG goes up $25 and I wont even think about the pullbacks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charlie Don't Surf Posted May 10, 2006 Share Posted May 10, 2006 Chart is looking vertical at the moment! If the Fed raise IRs again today would this cause a pullback? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluenun Posted May 10, 2006 Share Posted May 10, 2006 But on news of an expected inflation spike and China buying the equivalent of 9 months of the worl'd supply of Gold ??? Is it going to get crazy all of a sudden? As Cgnao, trying to pour an ocean of demand into a bathtub of supply? Oh dear... what to do... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinny Posted May 11, 2006 Share Posted May 11, 2006 Chart is looking vertical at the moment! If the Fed raise IRs again today would this cause a pullback? This is what I thought - How utterly wrong I was - gold up to $720. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cgnao Posted May 11, 2006 Share Posted May 11, 2006 As I said Using Technical Analysis to chase intermediate tops/bottoms is doomed to fail in this market. Volatility is on the rise and explosive price moves are becoming more likely. The correct strategy remains accumulation. Hold on to your position for much higher prices and welcome any pullbacks or price weakness as an opportunity to add to it. Nothing has changed. Protect yourselves. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Bart of Darkness Posted May 11, 2006 Share Posted May 11, 2006 Bart asked me this at $575, a couple of weeks back. That seems a long time ago now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted May 11, 2006 Share Posted May 11, 2006 That seems a long time ago now. I'm going to buy some more tonight. I foolishly waited while at work on monday thinking that 680 might pull back to 660. Dr Bubb said that gold moves fast. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Van Posted May 11, 2006 Share Posted May 11, 2006 Well, I'm running a short and feeling quite a bit of pain at the moment. Even Peter Grandich has said "there's more risk than reward at this point". 10% correction is not unlikely IMHO. We've tested $730 today - long term resistance from 1982. Would be as good a point at any to take a well deservered breather. Technical indicators are more overbought than they've ever been - we could unwind slowly, but given the parabolic rate of ascent, a sharp selloff is far more likely. "The mother of all short squeezes is coming" - it's already over. Barrick bought back most of their hedge in Q1, which goes a long way to explaining the phenomemal rise over that period. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cgnao Posted May 11, 2006 Share Posted May 11, 2006 "The mother of all short squeezes is coming" - it's already over. Barrick bought back most of their hedge in Q1, which goes a long way to explaining the phenomemal rise over that period. It's not even started. Apart from the fact that Barrick still have a long way to go to get out of their position, don't forget about the short position held by bullion banks, accumulated through a decade of covert central bank gold loans, and estimated at 10,000 to 15,000 tonnes, i.e. 1/3 to 1/2 of total central bank holdings. http://www.gata.org/CheuvreuxGoldReport.pdf http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story...191-643,00.html In the first four months of 2006, Barrick Gold spent $US1.2 billion to close out hedging positions it inherited through the takeover of Placer Dome. That represented 5.7 million ounces removed from its hedge commitments, and Barrick intends to de-hedge another 4.8 million ounces by 2009.The Mitsui Gold Hedging Report shows that, in four years, global gold hedging has dropped from 100 million ounces to 48 million ounces. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a1vin Posted May 11, 2006 Share Posted May 11, 2006 The most scary news today; Due to market volatility, GoldMoney has temporarily decreased the daily limit at which goldgram and silver ounce sell orders will be completed at a confirmed exchange rate. The daily limit for goldgrams has been reduced from 2,000gg to 1,000gg per 24 hours per customer. The daily limit for silver ounces has been reduced from 1,500oz to 750oz per 24 hours per customer. For those that say "would you buy now" etc... I'd advise hedging your bets, I believe 90% of those people using this forum are of the betting/gambling mindset and probably dont really understand the huge complexities affecting the gold/silver prices, myself included! If you're desperate to get on the 'gold ladder' for the first time then sure put a small % of your cash in now, but keep a larger percentage in reserve for when the drops happen - because they will. Ease your purchases in over time, a bit like a direct-debt to allocated gold, that'll smooth out the bumps and knocks that gold/silver will take... For whats its worth I'll probably buy back in when Gold drops ~3% in a 6-12 hour period - then if it keeps on dropping I'll keep on buying in etc... Oh, best reccomendation I can make is to make the following URL your homepage - then refresh it every 20 minutes to keep apraised; http://www.kitco.com/images/live/gold.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oracle Posted May 11, 2006 Share Posted May 11, 2006 I stand by what I have said. I could best describe ANY of my investment calls as being a call on high probability rather than absolute certainty of what may happen. I get many things wrong. My recent gold call would be in good and numbered company if we go on much futher from here. Gold MAY not pull back at this stage. BUT I think it probably will. If I am wrong, so be it. look,every investor worth their salt knows that a hedge agains such occurrances is wise....gold may well pull back,as may oil...but what will rise in their place??? oil isthe fabric of most modern economies,so if it gets cheaper...then stocks in general should increase. WHY do I think this will not happen any time soon??...simple. the reason is it takes 5 plus to develop a new field,same ith gold,same with coffee,same with rubber etc etc. these guys are seriously underinvested in terms of new capacity,at a time when global demand is increasing MUCH faster than new supply can be brought online. even renewables and ethanol....which will eventually add new capacity,are restrained by the prices in basics...meaning their bottom line increases faster than the pace of technology can erode the factory gate price. our best bet here,short term in uk is waste management...something europe has done for a decade...incinerate our shite to produce energy....that and uranium! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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