Britain is on verge of house price boom - Daily Express

[desiringonlychild]

Just now, tabliski said:

If economic growth was dead in Europe there would be an EU wide recession. This has not happened despite a financial crises and despite COVID. Sure there will be tougher times ahead. The next decades of strong economic growth most likely belong to Asia and Africa but for now Europe still has an established middle class. This is changing as wealth is held by fewer hands. This A shaped pattern of wealth distribution has been the norm in Asia for decades and they all ticked on by regardless.

I hope you had a nice time in Lisbon. I hear it's a favorite destination for the digital nomad and the locals are non too happy about the rise in property prices.

My husband's manager just bought a second home there with his bonus. 400k euros, the locals can't afford that.. 

 

[tabliski]

28 minutes ago, desiringonlychild said:

My husband's manager just bought a second home there with his bonus. 400k euros, the locals can't afford that.. 

 

It's happening across Europe.

It's something I am trying to get across on this forum. Twenty years of ultra low rates and a labour market where those at the top earn vast amounts more than those in the middle and the bottom is creating inequality like we have not witnessed in most of our lifetimes.

I am not sure if this will change. I think the wealthy will continue to accumulate assets and the people that just rely on their wages will slip further behind. 

There will be recessions, there may be a huge stock market crash, people may lose fortunes however I am not convinced this will turn the tide. There has been thirty years of HPI, QE and COVID money. Those that could borrow could max out at rock bottom rates. This has allowed some people to benefit at every stage of the economic cycle, while others fall further and further behind.

Edited May 7 by tabliski

[winkie]

2 hours ago, tabliski said:

You missed the fundamental point that if the economy collapses to such an extent that armed gangs and violence cause people to flee Notting Hill, Chelsea, Kensington, Westminster, Ealing, Islington and the like then in Penzance they will most likely be reliant upon roadkill.

Sure St Agnes, St Ives, Padstow and the like will be fine but the resident incomers most likely won't need to work. Probably just as well as they will have to spend their days defending their property from the starving locals.

Firstly, London needs low paid workers working in London to keep it going.....London has both extremely wealthy ethnic minorities and many poor ethnic minorities.......people tend to move to live in places where they see others similar to themselves.......you will find very few ethnic minorities living in rural Devon or Cornwall.....but all places everywhere have had new people moving into and out of places where many generations of same families have lived never moving further than down the road in the same village, nearest rivals were the next door village.......there are pockets of British people living in pockets all over the world, we tend to prefer to move to areas where we know there will be people like us even if they are from a completely different area of the UK than where we came from in the UK.....

[burk]

23 hours ago, Bruce Banner said:

All that headline will do is embolden stubborn tw@ts who's property's been on the mkt for a couple of years with no interest to sit tight because "theres a boom around the corner".

Smacks of desperation on the part of TPTB...........another thought, wearing my tin foil hat, would be number ten looking to amplify this messaging across all favourable rags so the crash occurs after the election on Labours watch, not there's.

#77thbrigade

Edited May 7 by burk

[Unmoderated]

14 hours ago, The Angry Capitalist said:

Yes.

Commented on this topic myself.

The highly populated cities will see natives flee leaving only the immigrants and young single people.

Families with children will be leaving due to the high crime etc.

NYC is seeing an exodus of people with many going to many places around New England and Florida.

When was the last time you went to Florida 🤣

[The Angry Capitalist]

25 minutes ago, tabliski said:

It's happening across Europe.

It's something I am trying to get across on this forum. Twenty years of ultra low rates and a labour market where those at the top earn vast amounts more than those in the middle and the bottom is creating inequality like we have not witnessed in most of our lifetimes.

I am not sure if this will change. I think the wealthy will continue to accumulate assets and the people that just rely on their wages will slip further behind. 

There will be recessions, there may be a huge stock market crash, people may lose fortunes however I am not convinced this will turn the tide. There has been thirty years of HPI, QE and COVID money. Those that could borrow could max out at rock bottom rates. This has allowed some people to benefit at every stage of the economic cycle, while others fall further and further behind.

It will change.

One of two ways.

Hyperinflation of the currencies or high interest rates and a deflationary crash.

[The Angry Capitalist]

1 hour ago, tabliski said:

Have you been to these places?

They are absolutely amazing cities. New York is astounding. 

Sure there is endemic poverty 

Sure there is crime. Nothing like in the 1970s though (when from all I hear NYC was dangerous in parts but a riot of creativity).

I would love to live in NYC, Brooklyn or Manhattan preferably.

San Francisco or Chicago would also be amazing. I guess we have different ideas about life and living.

Perhaps a return to 70s would be wake up call to stop being apathetic complacent consumers and kick start something new. 

Been to NYC.

We definitely have different ideas about living in cities.

[The Angry Capitalist]

50 minutes ago, tabliski said:

If economic growth was dead in Europe there would be an EU wide recession. This has not happened despite a financial crises and despite COVID. Sure there will be tougher times ahead. The next decades of strong economic growth most likely belong to Asia and Africa but for now Europe still has an established middle class. This is changing as wealth is held by fewer hands. This A shaped pattern of wealth distribution has been the norm in Asia for decades and they all ticked on by regardless.

I hope you had a nice time in Lisbon. I hear it's a favorite destination for the digital nomad and the locals are non too happy about the rise in property prices.

The growth they had was based on debt and negative low interest rates.

Have you seen the national debts of Italy and Greece to name a couple?

Germany (or Europe) no longer has access to cheap energy with Russian pipeline gone.

Also you have Italy, Greece and Spain with over 20% of people between 18 - 24 not in work or education.

Europe is toast. 

[Casual-observer]

54 minutes ago, tabliski said:

If economic growth was dead in Europe there would be an EU wide recession. This has not happened despite a financial crises and despite COVID. Sure there will be tougher times ahead. The next decades of strong economic growth most likely belong to Asia and Africa but for now Europe still has an established middle class. This is changing as wealth is held by fewer hands. This A shaped pattern of wealth distribution has been the norm in Asia for decades and they all ticked on by regardless.

I hope you had a nice time in Lisbon. I hear it's a favorite destination for the digital nomad and the locals are non too happy about the rise in property prices.

It has happened, Germany for one.

[winkie]

How about bank issued digital currency, there will be choices as to what currency would wish to purchase to spend........we see start of it today different currencies on one card.

[Blobsy]

Ahh that headline makes me reminisce about 2007.

[tabliski]

2 minutes ago, Casual-observer said:

It has happened, Germany for one.

Germany is likely in recession yes. Just.

[tabliski]

4 minutes ago, The Angry Capitalist said:

The growth they had was based on debt and negative low interest rates.

Have you seen the national debts of Italy and Greece to name a couple?

Germany (or Europe) no longer has access to cheap energy with Russian pipeline gone.

Also you have Italy, Greece and Spain with over 20% of people between 18 - 24 not in work or education.

Europe is toast. 

People have been predicting the imminent demise of the EU for decades. Sure there will be a recession. There is usually one every decade. Sure it may be tough. 1970, late 80s, 90s, 2007, COVID.

Yes debt is high. Yes people will have to adjust their lifestyles. Frankly people piss money up the wall compared to my childhood and I was profligate compared to my parents and their parents bathed in a tin bath in front of the fire and darned their socks. The sky still didn't fall in.

My biggest concern is that people blame immigrants for all their woes and elect right wing warmongers.

Then Europe really might be toast.

[burk]

4 minutes ago, tabliski said:

Yes debt is high. Yes people will have to adjust their lifestyles. Frankly people piss money up the wall compared to my childhood and I was profligate compared to my parents and their parents bathed in a tin bath in front of the fire and darned their socks. The sky still didn't fall in.

My biggest concern is that people blame immigrants for all their woes and elect right wing warmongers.

Then Europe really might be toast.

Europe is toast, also:

500,000 businesses fighting for survival as UK economy stagnates.

Edited May 7 by burk

[Unmoderated]

9 hours ago, tabliski said:

All the Muslim guys I meet just want to work, buy a car and generally do all the same stuff that young blokes all over the world want to do, just with less drinking and a little more time with family and the mosque.

If you are ever in Bristol there is a great middle eastern restaurant on Gloucester road, the Muslim community often eat there, the ladies dressed beautifully and all the family out together.

No alcohol or obnoxious behavior. Next door is a shisha bar that does great baclava. If you ask the taxi drivers that tend to meet there or the young guys they will happily give you recommendations if you don't know what is best to order.

Again the beauty of the city is it allows you to experience other cultures and see for yourself there is no need to live in fear.

👍

Agreed!

Incredible how losers blame others for their shortcomings. It sounds harsh but it's pretty true. If a bloke turning up barely able to speak English can do your job then you might want to look in the mirror. 

This weekend I'm going to London to meet a former mentee. They've done extremely well at my old firm, rising up form a general transactional role to lead a geo team. Lovely guy. Muslim. Married. Hard worker. 

8 hours ago, Pebbles said:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/metro.co.uk/2024/02/07/huge-queues-show-reality-trying-get-a-place-nhs-dentist-20239886/amp/ all that immigration and still no dentist places.

Plenty of private dentists out there with plenty of capacity? If you can't find an NHS one then look at how they're funded and why dentists do not want to work in the NHS. 

4 hours ago, desiringonlychild said:

Well as a jewish person married to a 4th generation Jewish Londoner living in a constituency which is 30% Jewish, we are not leaving london any time soon. 

The reality is that London is an inheritocracy and the reason why I am able to stay is because we got the benefit of 3 years of rent free living which is more common for ethnic minorities. People ask me why i stayed in London when it was so expensive back in 2017, my response is that nowhere is cheaper than £0 rent. This is why London is 50% non white, the immigrants are fine with living for years in grotty flatshares and living in less desirable areas or in the case of the hongkongers, have capital from back home.. And those who are born here often live for 10 years rent free before getting married (assuming marriage age of 28-30) which is more than enough to save up a 20% deposit on a 500k property even without taking double incomes into consideration

I lived with my parents in the middle of nowhere and commuted to uni, to my grad scheme etc afterwards. So many of my peers thought I was mad. I thought they were mad for paying to perpetuate the 'crime' of BTL. Saved plenty, graduated with more than my student loan in an ISA (which later formed a chunk of my house deposit!)

4 hours ago, Tony_Teacake said:

Totally agree and this is already happening and this will only get much worse.

Yeeeeeeeaaaaaaaah. Is this in line with your incredibly insightful analysis of the banking sector? 🤡

1 hour ago, tabliski said:

Paris, Bordeaux, Cannes, Geneva, Zurich, Stockholm, Copenhagen, Luxembourg, Hamburg, Vienna, Warsaw, Budapest, Prague, Rome, Milan, Palma, Barcelona etc etc

All wasteland, nothing happening, the peasants roaming streets in search of work.

Seriously? Sure the growth is sluggish but it is not game over.

Do any of you guys actually go places?

I doubt they've gone far. If they have they've not interreacted with locals. If they had they'd see that a number on a google search doesn't come close to representing quality of life in so many places. NYC is incredible but to live I'd take Porto or Paris over it. 

6 minutes ago, Blobsy said:

Ahh that headline makes me reminisce about 2007.

Yeah. Me too. And 2008. 2009. 2010. 2011. 2012. 2013. 2014..... you get he picture. 

Someone posted on here the Daily Express headlines. Pretty much each week there are headlines that are bearish and bullish. 

[winkie]

15 minutes ago, tabliski said:

Germany is likely in recession yes. Just.

.....are recessions necessarily a bad thing, a reset.......back to factory settings, can't keep on growing infinitely without strong solid support foundations, real productivity, real growth........cheap fiat money is cheap, not of substance ........higher property prices or asset/share prices are not a true sign of value, sentiment, a place of storage that can just as easily crumble and fall........doesn't take much.......

[tabliski]

1 minute ago, burk said:

500,000 businesses fighting for survival as UK economy stagnates.

I think we have all agreed that a recession is very probable. There usually is one every decade. I think we can fairly confidently say it could well be a stinker. This is not the same thing as saying Europe is finished and the cities will be in terminal decline with armed gangs, violence and flight to the countryside.

[burk]

Just now, tabliski said:

I think we have all agreed that a recession is very probable. There usually is one every decade. I think we can fairly confidently say it could well be a stinker. This is not the same thing as saying Europe is finished and the cities will be in terminal decline with armed gangs, violence and flight to the countryside.

Without Russia's cheap gas wheres the growth going to come from?

Then add in massive cost pressures from rapid demographic change it's hard to see a land of milk and honey from my vantage point.

[Unmoderated]

6 minutes ago, burk said:

500,000 businesses fighting for survival as UK economy stagnates.

https://www.ernest-wilson.co.uk/Business-Details/588783

From your link, a chippy in Cannock up for £260K. Turns over £10K-£12K a week. 

Retirement sale. 

Real sky falling in stuff. 

[tabliski]

12 minutes ago, winkie said:

.....are recessions necessarily a bad thing, a reset.......back to factory settings, can't keep on growing infinitely without strong solid support foundations, real productivity, real growth........cheap fiat money is cheap, not of substance ........higher property prices or asset/share prices are not a true sign of value, sentiment, a place of storage that can just as easily crumble and fall........doesn't take much.......

Two words.Greenspan and Bernanke. 

Made a right mess of things.

Edited May 7 by tabliski

[burk]

1 minute ago, Unmoderated said:

https://www.ernest-wilson.co.uk/Business-Details/588783

From your link, a chippy in Cannock up for £260K. Turns over £10K-£12K a week. 

Retirement sale. 

Real sky falling in stuff. 

Sure the Turkish heroin trade makes for mad gainz........

What's your point?

[Unmoderated]

3 minutes ago, burk said:

Sure the Turkish heroin trade makes for mad gainz........

What's your point?

What's yours with Turkish heroin? 

You post a link to a business looking for publicity. Dig into what they do and they literally sell businesses. 

Imagine trying to flog a book of businesses while, at the same time, publicly declaring businesses are struggling. 

Can't see any incentive for them there.......

[winkie]

https://www.standard.co.uk/business/insolvency-collapse-risk-begbies-traynor-debt-interest-rates-bank-of-england-economy-construction-support-b1154157.html

Cash flow is the killer, late payments and non payments from other firms supply to.....all fine and dandy the house is still making money.....if believe what read in the papers..

[tabliski]

20 minutes ago, burk said:

Without Russia's cheap gas wheres the growth going to come from?

Then add in massive cost pressures from rapid demographic change it's hard to see a land of milk and honey from my vantage point.

It's going to be a challenge and things are going to be more expensive.

To an extent demand destruction, renewables and a much needed change to antiquated farming techniques are required in Europe.

We will rely on LNG and the USA far more. 

Only time will answer this question though but from an environmental standpoint it needed to be tackled sooner rather than later.

As for an aging demographic again this will drive change and cause prices to increase. Maybe we need to learn some lessons from the Muslim community that takes so much stick and actually look after each other rather expecting the state to provide?

 

Edited May 7 by tabliski

[Tony_Teacake]

44 minutes ago, burk said:

Europe is toast, also:

500,000 businesses fighting for survival as UK economy stagnates.

The latest Begbies Traynor “Red Flag Alert” research, which has provided a snapshot of British corporate health for over 15 years, highlights the speed at which financial distress has accelerated over the last 12 months, with 554,554 UK businesses now in ‘significant’ financial distress – a 30.8% rise compared to Q1 2023. This deterioration now affects all 22 sectors covered by this latest research.

Only 1/2 a million businesses in significant financial distress. All I can say is the next couple of years are going to be very interesting but I think a better description would be brutal.

Looks like rampant inflation along with higher rates is doing so much damage. Seen all this coming 2 years ago.