btd1981 Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 There was a thread that I can't find relatively recently about banks requesting increased funding from some central fund. Maybe that partially explains all of the recent craziness. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bland Unsight Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 6 hours ago, Lemming94 said: Where is the supply? I know where I live there is naff all for sale except overpriced tat from chancers with no motivation to sell. There is a literal dearth of quality homes at any price. One thing that the elongated antiquated process that purchasing a house forces upon the English market is the correct derivation of price. There is a long cooling off period and plenty of time to come to your senses before exchange. As a general rule houses sell for the right (current) market value, when they do sell. The market price might be considered "correct" by definition, but then it's just a tautology to say that the price is correct. Did you have an alternative idea of what it means for a price to be "correct"? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gush Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 4 hours ago, goldbug9999 said: The main driver of prices, given that supply is constrained and only changes slowly, is credit issuance. BoE data shows that over 70% of net new lending over the last 3 years (at least) is buy to let activity. If buy to let activity declines (due to tax changes and/or lending rules) then prices could fall possibly big time. This is uncharted territory because we've never yet had a significant fall in BTL activity. +1. This one statistics should explain most of the puzzle(FTB price paid increase , london average houses crosses 300k) the other threads. 5 hours ago, Lemming94 said: You say if the prices fall. Give me the macroeconomic reasoning behind the fall. What is going to cause it? Where is it come no from? The fundamentals do not support that view at all however desirable they may be. You say the fundamentals dont support price fall. Can you say one fundamental which support rise. The symptoms(historic low interest rate, 10bn a month govt borrowing, central bank money printing ) all point to failing economy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 6 hours ago, Lemming94 said: Ifs. Rather than facts. Fact is that no one is panicking out of their property investment or otherwise. Fact is that a change to stamp duty lead to a stampede to buy before the changes came into play. Fact is that ALL the data available points to rising prices. Fact again the latest official data points to steady rises in prices for 'everyday' homes rather than high end shoe boxes. The lack of supply in houses over 1/1.5m can be explained by the lack of desire for the owners of those houses to chuck a hundred grand down the drain rather than sit where they are or extend. You say if the prices fall. Give me the macroeconomic reasoning behind the fall. What is going to cause it? Where is it come no from? The fundamentals do not support that view at all however desirable they may be. If...sorry I meant are...pcl down 12% from peak and bow sales have collapsed. 1.2 million in 2014 now "worth" £1m suddenly those less desirable boroughs ate less desirable somewhat. Rinse...repeat. The extreme London Hubble has always been the key to an almighty collapse countrywide. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 3 hours ago, btd1981 said: There was a thread that I can't find relatively recently about banks requesting increased funding from some central fund. Maybe that partially explains all of the recent craziness. Doubled in 1 week iirc Think I posted it. The banks and central bankers have lost the plot. Railway mania/south Ses bubble/tulips/dot com...we've seen it all before...irrational investment by people thinking they can't loose out. Most loose out It's the hammering of the workers/savers by the bankers with no one on government not willing to stand up against them that I can't stomach. I think we can all thank Gordon "shut up love you are a bigot" Brown. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
999house Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 13 hours ago, allornothing said: A drop in volumes is bad surely? Basic economics says higher volumes equals lower prices? What am I missing here? No because there is no direct substitute product for a house, so the demand is always there. Its the price putting people off. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Digsby Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 12 hours ago, GreenDevil said: Means the governments tax take is down 40% eek! I've done a bit of sport climbing in my time. It's an interesting sport because it has as much to do with psychology as it does stamina. There is a point of no return. Your rope is fed through an anchor point (a clip) just above you and you are safe as you cannot fall. As you climb above that clip then the distance you can fall is twice the distance between you and clip which is now below you. If the next clip is 3m above you and you are half way between and knackered then you have a choice. You can let go knowing that you will fall 3m which will hurt. You can climb down which is as tiring as climbing up but at least the more progress you make the less you will fall if you have to let go. Or you can climb up, knowing that it is no more tiring than climbing down but the higher you climb, the greater you will fall up to 6m which would really hurt. Every climber knows this dilemma. The oint of no return doesn't necessarily happen halfway between the clips, it is when you know that the risk of climbing down is greater than the risk of climbing up although neither option is appealing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Digsby Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 10 hours ago, Lemming94 said: I think you've hit the crux of it right here. Where is the supply? I know where I live there is naff all for sale except overpriced tat from chancers with no motivation to sell. There is a literal dearth of quality homes at any price. One thing that the elongated antiquated process that purchasing a house forces upon the English market is the correct derivation of price. There is a long cooling off period and plenty of time to come to your senses before exchange. As a general rule houses sell for the right (current) market value, when they do sell. Motivated sellers (D,D or D) do put property up for sale and then at a price where it does sell. Look at the minimal repossessions, there is no crisis or macro reason forcing owners to sell. That may well change, but until it does prices will not come down. Naff all for sale except overpriced tat from chancers with no motivation to sell. That is the sign of a deeply dysfunctional market with very weak demand. One question, if they have no motivation to sell and their asking prices are overpriced then what are they up to? How do they contribute to the market? They contribute by setting price expectations. If there are 10 properties for sale in a market and 9 are vastly overpriced, then the one that isn't will sell just because it's only very overpriced. "As a general rule houses sell for the right (current) market value, when they do sell.". WTF??? Houses sell to the highest bidder. Strictly speaking, yes, you can say that it is the market price. But you are suggesting that it is impossible to pay too much for a house, because if you buy it then you are paying the market price - you are setting the market price. Do you honestly think that nobody has ever paid too much for a house? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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