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AvoidDebt

Land Reg Nov 2016 +1.1, London +1.8

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In England, the November data shows an annual price increase of 7.2% which takes the average property value to £234,278. Monthly house prices have risen by 1.1% since October 2016.

Wales shows an annual price increase of 4.1% which takes the average property value to £146,742. Monthly house prices have fallen by 0.2% since October 2016.

London shows an annual price increase of 8.1% which takes the average property value to £481,648. Monthly house prices have risen by 1.8% since October 2016.

The regional data indicates that:

the East of England experienced the greatest increase in its average property price over the last 12 months with a movement of 10.5%

the West Midlands experienced the greatest monthly price growth with an increase of 2.2%

the North East saw the lowest annual price growth with an increase of 3.2%

the South East saw the most significant monthly price fall with a movement of 0.3%.

Home sales in the UK (pdf, 788kb) increased by 0.8% between October and November 2016 which is 7.3% lower than November 2015. See the economic statement.

Sales during September 2016, the most up-to-date Land Registry figures available, show that:

the number of completed house sales in England fell by 22% to 64,311 compared with 82,452 in September 2015

the number of completed house sales in Wales fell by 10.4% to 3,492 compared with 3,896 in September 2015

the number of completed house sales in London fell by 39.5% to 6,698 compared with 11,065 in September 2015

there were 607 repossession sales in England in September 2016

there were 63 repossession sales in Wales in September 2016

the lowest number of repossession sales in England and Wales in September 2016 was in the East of England.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-house-price-index-hpi-for-november-2016

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55 minutes ago, allornothing said:

A drop in volumes is bad surely? Basic economics says higher volumes equals lower prices? What am I missing here?

Means the governments tax take is down 40% eek!

I can't see any falls for two years, once brexit happens and population growth is curbed and the bankseters move to Frankfurt, and vendors \estate agents expectations are lowered which takes years.

Depends is you would rather waste 2 plus years on rent and then have no guarantee prices will fall anyway.

 

 

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1 hour ago, allornothing said:

Not to be that guy, but why the surprise? 

For any nominal drop, we would need to see 5% plus interest rates, plus actual unemployment in the city. 

 

 

After from teh 12% in PCL ?

 

You're talking out your a**e, prices have become untenable and unaffordable for everyone buying in the last 2 years.

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1 hour ago, allornothing said:

A drop in volumes is bad surely? Basic economics says higher volumes equals lower prices? What am I missing here?

No, a collapse is volumes is good...prices will follow. Someone has a graph clearly showing this

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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1 hour ago, allornothing said:

A drop in volumes is bad surely? Basic economics says higher volumes equals lower prices? What am I missing here?

Hi, it depends on whether the drop in volume is caused by constraints in supply or demand. If demand dries up then volumes fall and prices drop. If supply dries up volumes fall and prices rise.

 

The evidence at the moment suggests the second of these.

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!!! STOP !!!

These figures do not match what I am seeing on rightmove/property bee ( apart from the collapse in sales ).

Sales are falling though all overt the shop now and asking prices for stuff that has been on the market fro 12 months+ steadily declining.

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15 minutes ago, allornothing said:

How do you square this with a land registry increase then?

Genuinely don't know what to make of sales volumnes re HPI so would like to see this if anyone has it handy

The land registry value is for the whole of London, not just prime. There are large variations depending on area.

1 hour ago, allornothing said:

A drop in volumes is bad surely? Basic economics says higher volumes equals lower prices? What am I missing here?

In 2008 volumes crashed and prices crashed, so your 'basic economics' is clearly wrong.

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1 hour ago, allornothing said:

A drop in volumes is bad surely? Basic economics says higher volumes equals lower prices? What am I missing here?

In regard to central London at least, part of that drop must be caused by the rise in stamp duty making the cost of moving prohibitive. Add in the additional 3% cost if like at least half the people I work with you have a second home (holiday or BTL) and you can see why people are just staying put.

Stamp duty is an awful tax that should be scrapped and replaced it by a significantly higher council tax that is based on local property prices and rebased every year. Then you would have a liquid property market and see drops in demand quickly reflected in sales prices.  Give councils the power to charge whatever supplement the decide on for BTLs and HMOs and you would have a simple and effective system for taxing property. 

  

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17 minutes ago, honeybadger said:

In 2008 volumes crashed and prices crashed, so your 'basic economics' is clearly wrong.

It rather depends on whether the drop in transaction volume is due to faltering demand or faltering supply. It does come down to simple economics, and volume figures alone do not give us enough information.

 

Edited by 65243

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Just now, 65243 said:

It rather depends on whether the drop in transaction volume is due to faltering demand or faltering supply. It does come down to simple economics, and volume figures alone not give us enough information.

 

Yes, I agree. The OP was claiming that higher volumes = lower prices, which is nonsense.

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28 minutes ago, honeybadger said:

What theory would that be?

You seem confused.

 

Transaction volumes arent falling because supply is falling, it's collapsing because demand has collapsed.

I suspect these rises are fuled by a) A rush to get the last HTB2 Help and B) Proper morons thinking they've finally got a bargain cause tthey've hovered up ann insanely priced flat for insane price -10%

I'll post the chart when I find it....


Does anyone know where that graph is that shows as transaction volumes fall then prices follow ?

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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10 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

You seem confused.

 

Transaction volumes arent falling because supply is falling, it's collapsing because demand has collapsed.

I suspect these rises are fuled by a) A rush to get the last HTB2 Help and B) Proper morons thinking they've finally got a bargain cause tthey've hovered up ann insanely priced flat for insane price -10%

I'll post the chart when I find it....

Hi Count, I was merely pointing out that the high volumes = low prices is not a valid general rule.

I'm in agreement that the cause of current low volumes is a collapse in demand.

 

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What I observe happenning in London is that previously lower priced areas are slowly increasing in price until they hit a ceiling of roughly the same price as areas that were double or triple or quadruple price before.

I.e. Ceiling of 1 beds for 400-500, 2 beds for 600-800, terraced houses for 1.2M+

It's a sort of concertina squeezing effect.

IF it ever crashes, it's obvious things will just reverse, ie that the drops will be much higher in the areas that used to be cheaper. QUESTION is will it ever crash?

Logic says it requires interest rates to go up [PLEASE can I have some more, Mr Trump].
OR a load of people to leave London. Not happening soon from what I experience and I don't really want any of the lovely people to leave.

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1 hour ago, GreenDevil said:

Means the governments tax take is down 40% eek!

I can't see any falls for two years, once brexit happens and population growth is curbed and the bankseters move to Frankfurt, and vendors \estate agents expectations are lowered which takes years.

Depends is you would rather waste 2 plus years on rent and then have no guarantee prices will fall anyway.

 

 

doubt population growth will be curbed. if they wanted to do that they could have halved immigration whilst remaining in the eu. why didn't they?

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4 minutes ago, allornothing said:

 In all the places I am looking, over meaningful periods, higher volumes do positively correlate with low prices. So in my search areas at least it is not pure nonsense. 
 

Before 2008, volumes were much higher than now and rising, and prices were also rising. So I'm afraid your claim really is nonsense in general.

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3 minutes ago, ebull said:
Quote

What I observe happenning in London is that previously lower priced areas are slowly increasing in price until they hit a ceiling of roughly the same price as areas that were double or triple or quadruple price before.



I.e. Ceiling of 1 beds for 400-500, 2 beds for 600-800, terraced houses for 1.2M+

It's a sort of concertina squeezing effect.

IF it ever crashes, it's obvious things will just reverse, ie that the drops will be much higher in the areas that used to be cheaper. QUESTION is will it ever crash?

Logic says it requires interest rates to go up [PLEASE can I have some more, Mr Trump].
OR a load of people to leave London. Not happening soon from what I experience and I don't really want any of the lovely people to leave.
 

That is exactly whats happening , but I wouldn't call it slowly when the changes are 15-20 % in a year 

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2 minutes ago, allornothing said:

If this is not a generally valid rule, you should be able to give me a postcode where this rule hasn't proved true over the last 15 years or so?

Look at London pre-2008.

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