DonnieDarker Posted January 19, 2006 Share Posted January 19, 2006 Long time, no read. It's depressing to have been away from HPC for months and to come back and see that nothing seems to have changed, market-wise. Please correct me if I'm wrong. Since the SIPS u-turn I've been in hpc exile and whilst I've had a bit of luck money-wise (salary increase of 20%. share growth of 20%) none of it seems to be enough to keep up with the extortionate prices of property. Perhaps I'm just feeling blue? Anyway...I'm going to start looking to buy this summer I think and imagine I'll have bought somewhere by April 2007. I can't see me holding out any longer than Summer 2007. Christ, I hope prices come down before then. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OnlyMe Posted January 19, 2006 Share Posted January 19, 2006 DonnieDarker, Well done on the pay rise. Why the rush? You'll have 25/30 years to pay back the debt and you'll probably spend most of that time beavering away to try and whittle it down. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OzzMosiz Posted January 19, 2006 Share Posted January 19, 2006 I will buy when I have about 30-40% deposit and the remainder is less than 3 times my salary for a modest 3 bed semi in a decent area. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Realistbear Posted January 19, 2006 Share Posted January 19, 2006 Long time, no read. It's depressing to have been away from HPC for months and to come back and see that nothing seems to have changed, market-wise. Please correct me if I'm wrong. Since the SIPS u-turn I've been in hpc exile and whilst I've had a bit of luck money-wise (salary increase of 20%. share growth of 20%) none of it seems to be enough to keep up with the extortionate prices of property. Perhaps I'm just feeling blue? Anyway...I'm going to start looking to buy this summer I think and imagine I'll have bought somewhere by April 2007. I can't see me holding out any longer than Summer 2007. Christ, I hope prices come down before then. Renting is lovely--cheaper than buying at the top of the market and you can enjoy further increases in your portfolio. And all the time watch the house prices continue to erode. Depending where you live its looking good again for 2006! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkG Posted January 19, 2006 Share Posted January 19, 2006 Hopefully within 18 months, with about a 75% deposit. Of course that would be in Canada, not Britain. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DonnieDarker Posted January 19, 2006 Author Share Posted January 19, 2006 Rush? I started looking in Summer 2004. By the time I buy I'll have waited about 30 months. That's plenty time. I'm just a bit bored with the whole renting thing I guess. Of course I know the arguments but if the market does not dip significantly in the next year then I wont be put off. I'll just be really tired of waiting. I should have enough of a deposit to mean that the mortage will be roughly the same as my rent so I figure, why not. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samuel Whiskers Posted January 19, 2006 Share Posted January 19, 2006 2009? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OzzMosiz Posted January 19, 2006 Share Posted January 19, 2006 Rush? Fantastic band! Canadian too. MarkG will have good opportunities to see them live. Lucky bar-steward! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AteMoose Posted January 19, 2006 Share Posted January 19, 2006 2010ish with about 40% deposit.... if im still in the uk... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
woody Posted January 19, 2006 Share Posted January 19, 2006 Donnie, There isn't a great deal of change on here since much earlier in 2005. There is an acceptance that the prices don't appear to be going up huge amounts each month. Equally though, there is acceptance that making silly low offers in the hope that someone will accept 30% lower than they paid for the property 2 years ago is not going to work. I am agonising over the question of when myself and this is my view. If was 5 years younger (i am 31) and unmarried then I would stick it out in this country. But I am married and have a kid and am under huge pressure from all corners to buy. My alternative is to run away to another country with wife and kid and work there for a few years. Not sure if that is going to be a possibility. The difficulty is compounded by the intention of my wife to buy a property before we go abroad "as an investment and for when we get back". The latter concept is IMHO totally stupid but her mums property portfolio has only gone up since she started in 1995 so "property is a safe bet". Give the potential for a major financial screw-up of our lives, I may opt for a middle line of attack which would be to buy a place below our stretch limit and accept that it may cost me £100,000 if prices dropped 25% (I could stomach a £100k loss over 5 years - not pleasant but I value my wife and kid far more than that). Then, if/when it happened and an HPC roared, I might still be able to trade up in the melee. Big "might" though. I can hold-off only until autumn this year before taking some very drastic action. In the meantime, we are about to sign a lease on a property which I consider to be way above the market rent for the relevant property; why? because my wife likes the property... woody Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DonnieDarker Posted January 19, 2006 Author Share Posted January 19, 2006 Someone mentioned area...the area I will buy in is quite a nice part of North London. Between 89-96 (last crash) it held steady (+0.4%) and although that is ni real-terms a fall it's hardly a great tumble. I don't know. I can imagine its the kind of area which will hold steady during a bad market. Maybe it'll drop 2% a year at most. Is that enough to dissuade me? I'm not sure. I'm intending to sink 25% into a flat that I would be happy living in for 5-10 years so I dont think it would. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goat Posted January 19, 2006 Share Posted January 19, 2006 When the average price bears some relation to the average income. Not likely to be until end 2008. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OnlyMe Posted January 19, 2006 Share Posted January 19, 2006 Rush? I started looking in Summer 2004. By the time I buy I'll have waited about 30 months. That's plenty time. I'm just a bit bored with the whole renting thing I guess. Of course I know the arguments but if the market does not dip significantly in the next year then I wont be put off. I'll just be really tired of waiting. I should have enough of a deposit to mean that the mortage will be roughly the same as my rent so I figure, why not. Well OK, not exactly a rush, but still compare 30 months to 30 years. Whatever decision is made now could affect your life for that length of time. There are all sorts of valid reasons for wanting to and actually making the move - I just wouldn't put impatience and boredom on the list. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fudge Posted January 19, 2006 Share Posted January 19, 2006 I have started seeing house prices being reduced where I am in the East Midlands, also seeing a pick up in activity a few more SSTC going up, putting two and two together I think they are selling for less. If this is the case I am more than happy renting. If house prices where going to keep going up as some people think because of a new paradigm or globalisation, why have they stalled in some areas and fallen in others, if they are correct then this stall which is now recognised by VI wouldnt have happened surely. And I know, dont call me shirley! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DonnieDarker Posted January 19, 2006 Author Share Posted January 19, 2006 In the meantime, we are about to sign a lease on a property which I consider to be way above the market rent for the relevant property; why? because my wife likes the property... woody Yikes! I am mid 20's and under increasing pressure to buy myself. I am getting married next year and once that is done then the burning issue will be: "when are you going to buy?" Frankly, the inquistors will have a point because I will have been putting them off and stalling them with theories about the market for....about 2 1/2 years. Whatever decision is made now could affect your life for that length of time. There are all sorts of valid reasons for wanting to and actually making the move - I just wouldn't put impatience and boredom on the list. How about: desire to own somewhere (nesting) have somewhere I can redecorate, furnish and not feel it's a waste desire to live in a 2 bed so friends and family can stay over desire to 'feel settled' Seriously, dont you think 3 years of market-watching is enough? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goat Posted January 19, 2006 Share Posted January 19, 2006 Seriously, dont you think 3 years of market-watching is enough? What part of loosing your life's savings are you struggling with? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Realistbear Posted January 19, 2006 Share Posted January 19, 2006 (edited) Try seeing renting as another form of owning. A lease is an estate in land just like a freehold. The only difference is the length of time you agree to stay there. With a lease you determine the length of time with a freehold the choice is still yours subject to the marketability of your house. If you own you don't really own as the land will revert to whoever can pay the bills. As an "owner" you lease at HM Pleasure--or for as long as you pay the taxes. Or, if you have a mortgage, at the pleasure of the bank. I have been an OO since 1975 and STR in 2003 and am actually enjoying a sense of freedom from a mortgage and all the expenses that go along with maintaining a gaff of my own. Its really just an attitude--we have all been brainwashed into thinking rent is "dead money." So is mortage interest and equity comes and goes like the wind depending on the market and we live in very volatile times. Edited January 19, 2006 by Realistbear Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DonnieDarker Posted January 19, 2006 Author Share Posted January 19, 2006 What part of loosing your life's savings are you struggling with? Come on. Who here honestly believes that the market is going to crash 20,30,40%? That is the only way you will lose your savings and only then if you are forced to sell which if putting down a substantial deposit is pretty damn unlikely. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
r thritis Posted January 19, 2006 Share Posted January 19, 2006 The difficulty is compounded by the intention of my wife to buy a property before we go abroad "as an investment and for when we get back". The latter concept is IMHO totally stupid but her mums property portfolio has only gone up since she started in 1995 so "property is a safe bet". Woody - resist this one at all costs. I can say from bitter experience that you don't need the millstone of a property back home. It can be the cause of much stress and anxst - and don't expect a property manager to take care of all the hassles. At the first sign of trouble, they'll dump it on you! You are in an enviable position being able to work abroad without the hassle of having to rent out or sell your home - just checkout the expats forum. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Realistbear Posted January 19, 2006 Share Posted January 19, 2006 Come on. Who here honestly believes that the market is going to crash 20,30,40%? That is the only way you will lose your savings and only then if you are forced to sell which if putting down a substantial deposit is pretty damn unlikely. 50-60% looks like the figure. Its based on historic data which shows that the dip is always 50% of the preceding spike--always. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goat Posted January 19, 2006 Share Posted January 19, 2006 Come on. Who here honestly believes that the market is going to crash 20,30,40%? That is the only way you will lose your savings and only then if you are forced to sell which if putting down a substantial deposit is pretty damn unlikely. A crash of up to 50% is IMO perfectly feasible, 20% IMO would be a soft landing. Just because you don't have to sell the asset doesn't mean that you haven't lost money, if you slip into negative equity are your savings still intact?. Anecdotally, I think the crash has started, anybody who thinks that now is a good time to buy is a fool. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nijo Posted January 19, 2006 Share Posted January 19, 2006 Yikes! I am mid 20's and under increasing pressure to buy myself. I am getting married next year and once that is done then the burning issue will be: "when are you going to buy?" Frankly, the inquistors will have a point because I will have been putting them off and stalling them with theories about the market for....about 2 1/2 years. How about: desire to own somewhere (nesting) have somewhere I can redecorate, furnish and not feel it's a waste desire to live in a 2 bed so friends and family can stay over desire to 'feel settled' Seriously, dont you think 3 years of market-watching is enough? You know it's not written in stone that you have to buy property. Many people get married, have kids and live happily ever after in rented accomodation... just not the English for some reason. Honestly, you're not living up to your contrarian avatar very well. Donnie Darko would never follow societal dogma. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OnlyMe Posted January 19, 2006 Share Posted January 19, 2006 Local HP/Earnings ratios sitting at 8x+ in places all over the country. 50% would not surprise me and that is not taking into account the mess the economy is digging itself into mainly thanks to Gordon and his never never spending plans which deliver something approaching nothing. Another 4 years of this and all bets are off. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redwing Posted January 19, 2006 Share Posted January 19, 2006 Long time, no read. It's depressing to have been away from HPC for months and to come back and see that nothing seems to have changed, market-wise. Please correct me if I'm wrong. Since the SIPS u-turn I've been in hpc exile and whilst I've had a bit of luck money-wise (salary increase of 20%. share growth of 20%) none of it seems to be enough to keep up with the extortionate prices of property. Perhaps I'm just feeling blue? Anyway...I'm going to start looking to buy this summer I think and imagine I'll have bought somewhere by April 2007. I can't see me holding out any longer than Summer 2007. Christ, I hope prices come down before then. Me? 3 - 5 years Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DonnieDarker Posted January 19, 2006 Author Share Posted January 19, 2006 You know it's not written in stone that you have to buy property. Many people get married, have kids and live happily ever after in rented accomodation... just not the English for some reason. Honestly, you're not living up to your contrarian avatar very well. Donnie Darko would never follow societal dogma. Maybe, maybe. But all of you predicting this huge crash...would it not be fair to say if visible price-plummeting does not happen in the next year then it aint going to happen. Honestly I was here a lot a year ago and the concensus was "2007, 2007"...I come back and it's "2009...2009". I love this place but there seem to be a lot of King *****s! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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