rantnrave Posted November 26, 2015 Share Posted November 26, 2015 Up 0.4% to £186,350 Full report out tomorrow at 11am (November Nationwide report out tomorrow at 7am) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timak Posted November 26, 2015 Share Posted November 26, 2015 Last 3 sales in my street (all 3 bed terraced houses in various states of repair) in cheapest part of Cambridge: None had broken the £250k barrier until 2012. £285k £335k £340k Insanity. Was chatting to a friend yesterday. Her sister (early 30's) is moving in with her partner, both in full time work, healthy deposit accumulated over a decade of saving. However even with this they cannot even get near to owning a 2 bedroom place within 15 miles of where they both grew up and work. They don't want a huge mortgage as kids are on the agenda. It just doesn't seem fair that they literally cannot afford anything when they have a household income of £50k and a decent deposit (£30k) or so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mavioni Posted November 26, 2015 Share Posted November 26, 2015 Wasn't it £186,553 last month - I don't want to get over-technical with the LR, but surely being £200 lower means it is a fall? Unless of course they have revised last month down. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rantnrave Posted November 26, 2015 Author Share Posted November 26, 2015 Wasn't it £186,553 last month - I don't want to get over-technical with the LR, but surely being £200 lower means it is a fall? Unless of course they have revised last month down. Seasonal adjusting covers a multitude of sins Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zugzwang Posted November 26, 2015 Share Posted November 26, 2015 Wasn't it £186,553 last month - I don't want to get over-technical with the LR, but surely being £200 lower means it is a fall? Unless of course they have revised last month down. The oldest trick in the book! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saving For a Space Ship Posted November 26, 2015 Share Posted November 26, 2015 Mavioni, on 26 Nov 2015 - 3:52 PM, said: Wasn't it £186,553 last month - I don't want to get over-technical with the LR, but surely being £200 lower means it is a fall? Unless of course they have revised last month down. Seasonal adjusting covers a multitude of sins spins corrected for you Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rantnrave Posted November 27, 2015 Author Share Posted November 27, 2015 Nationwide up 0.1% in Nov: http://www.nationwide.co.uk/~/media/MainSite/documents/about/house-price-index/Nov-2015.pdf Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rantnrave Posted November 27, 2015 Author Share Posted November 27, 2015 Land Reg Oct full report: https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/479076/October_2015_HPI.pdf Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rantnrave Posted November 27, 2015 Author Share Posted November 27, 2015 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rantnrave Posted November 27, 2015 Author Share Posted November 27, 2015 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rantnrave Posted November 27, 2015 Author Share Posted November 27, 2015 Volumes (at least in August) lowest since 2012: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rantnrave Posted November 27, 2015 Author Share Posted November 27, 2015 Ditto for London: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rantnrave Posted November 27, 2015 Author Share Posted November 27, 2015 Looking to buy a bargain repo? Good luck finding one... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted November 27, 2015 Share Posted November 27, 2015 (edited) Looking to buy a bargain repo? Good luck finding one... forbearance at work?or buy to letters getting in before they miss out? given what happened in 2007 and the level of housing costs, this makes no sense. I smell a rat Edited November 27, 2015 by TheCountOfNowhere Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rantnrave Posted November 27, 2015 Author Share Posted November 27, 2015 (edited) General rule of thumb - sales across England & Wales of less than 60k per month equals price falls, sales in London of less than 6k a month equals price falls. Sound about right based on these charts? Edited November 27, 2015 by rantnrave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gospel_5 Posted November 27, 2015 Share Posted November 27, 2015 Forbearance numbers make sense to me. In a full recourse mortgage market like the UK they are never all that high to begin with, but the low mortgage rates mean that even non-conforming borrowers (who are typically on svr or indexed to LIBOR or the base rate) are paying half what they did in 08 or 09. a friend of mine had a 100% mortgage and very poor credit when he bought in 07, and things have been better once he rolled off his fixed period. Plus I guess with House prices at all time highs in much of the country, troubled borrowers might be able to sell their house and fully repay their debt if they can't meet their payments, or (perhaps more likely) refinance at a higher valuation and use some of the proceeds to pay off their arrears. The last of these was very common in the U.S. Subprime market (which I used to know quite well) in the early-to-Mid 2000s, and hid many of the problems until house prices started going sideways and then down. I think by far the biggest reason is interest rates though Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gospel_5 Posted November 27, 2015 Share Posted November 27, 2015 meant repossession numbers, not forbearance Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Knimbies who say No Posted November 27, 2015 Share Posted November 27, 2015 Transaction numbers down quite heavily y-o-y. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andy T Posted November 27, 2015 Share Posted November 27, 2015 Such a huge difference between 200-250 and 250-300. Almost as if the effective lowering of stamp duty above 250k has increased prices and left a huge void below it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted November 29, 2015 Share Posted November 29, 2015 Looks like a crash to me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
evictee Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 A bit late this month but October sales are now available at houseprices.io if anyone wants a look. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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