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Gospel_5

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About Gospel_5

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  1. I've received 5 "quick sale required"/"motivated seller" emails from estate agents in the last few days (NW3, NW5). I've been signed up since last August with a few local agents, but only received a handful of these emails in the previous 11 months. Hopefully the start of something. I emigrated a week ago (Seattle: same weather but with added mountains and lakes and half the price for property), but still watching london with interest. Just wish I'd converted my savings to dollars sooner
  2. I was looking in Kentish Town and gospel oak areas (not far from Hampstead), and can confirm that things are starting to look softer around here. I checked on propertybee today and see that 43% of new updates were reductions in my area over the last 7 days (25/58) and 14 days (51/120). I don't remember seeing these numbers above 35% before. There was a decent jump in the total properties in my target area about 2-3 weeks ago but this appears to have slowed, and the new activity has increasingly been reductions. These look to be small drops (5-10%) but it is a good start!
  3. try to ignore others' signals of wealth and flashiness. If you are secure in yourself, you should be able to be comfortable with your decision to be financially prudent, and should not care about missing out on the approval or jealousy of those who take bigger risks or value things differently from you. Too much judging and looking down on others is not healthy. This country is still too class and status driven
  4. Shoeshine boy anecdote is supposed to be sign of a market top. taxi driver also works. I think it's supposed to be when the market mania has infected those who don't usually think/talk about it, as everyone is making money. This might have been the case in the late 90s, but probably not since then. In 05-07 I guess you could have seen the same thing with US housing, as you didn't have to look far to find someone getting rich from it.
  5. It's not quite as bad as it sounds. They already own there, and the place next door has become available, so they will knock the walls down and create a bigger place. It is a bit of a unique opportunity so I am choosing not to fight it. Plus I already burned by credibility by advising her (at length) not to buy her first place in 2011. We stopped speaking for a few months as I tried to warn her in every conversation. I was very wrong, and she has done very well out of it. So I gave up this time, as I was sick of being the family HPC-bore. I did tell her to sell her first flat a few months ago so she could cash in on the insane prices, but she has ignored me.
  6. I did have the "cash" a few months ago, via a planned loan from my parents, but once we decided not to buy, those funds have been used to lend to my sister instead, who is buying in battersea of all places!
  7. I stopped looking for somewhere to buy in London a few months ago (my wife really wanted to buy somewhere but was finally convinced against it when we started viewings), but I'm still signed up to email alerts from a few estate agents. Yesterday I got a new one I've not seen before, with an email blast looking for a "cash buyer needed to complete before 31st March". I wonder why that is...
  8. Moving to the US in July. Prices in some cities (NY and DC probably) are pretty high, but nothing compared to London. We're going to Seattle (where my wife is from), and where prices are just about bearable for now. Tried and failed to find somewhere here last year but have given up.
  9. Paragon also worth looking at, as an indicator of BTL loan demand. I think they have dived sharply as well recently. In hindsight paragon was probably a pretty good short when it became clear the tide was turning against BTL. Not so sure about foxtons, as I assume they need sales volume more than anything, which should pick up if the market crashes.
  10. meant repossession numbers, not forbearance
  11. Forbearance numbers make sense to me. In a full recourse mortgage market like the UK they are never all that high to begin with, but the low mortgage rates mean that even non-conforming borrowers (who are typically on svr or indexed to LIBOR or the base rate) are paying half what they did in 08 or 09. a friend of mine had a 100% mortgage and very poor credit when he bought in 07, and things have been better once he rolled off his fixed period. Plus I guess with House prices at all time highs in much of the country, troubled borrowers might be able to sell their house and fully repay their debt if they can't meet their payments, or (perhaps more likely) refinance at a higher valuation and use some of the proceeds to pay off their arrears. The last of these was very common in the U.S. Subprime market (which I used to know quite well) in the early-to-Mid 2000s, and hid many of the problems until house prices started going sideways and then down. I think by far the biggest reason is interest rates though
  12. I beleive securitization is a small part of total mortgage lending in UK (compared to the US for example), so I don't expect this to have much effect. I imagine that changes in capital rules at banks would have a bigger impact.
  13. As promised, Land Registry have released the additonal price paid data: This includes the Additional Price Paid Data transactions received at Land Registry from 14 October 2013 to 30 September 2015 if you download the YTD file for 2015, and also the historic 2013 and 2014 files, you can compare the existing and the new transactions by area. I took a look for London, and was surprised that BTL/other was less than 10% of total transactions over this period, though was quite a bit higher for some areas (eg Newham & Brent, and also the central London boroughs) also looks like a rise in the BTL/other share of the total from November 2014 (is this when mortgage lending rules got tougher for non-BTL buyers?) category A: Standard Price Paid entry includes single residential property sold for full market value. Data available from 1 January 1995 category B: Additional Price Paid entry includes transfers under a power of sale (repossessions), buy-to-lets where they can be identified by a mortgage and transfers to non-private individuals. Data available from 14 October 2013 https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/price-paid-data-downloads#additional-price-paid-data-historic-file
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