Fully Detached Posted September 10, 2015 Share Posted September 10, 2015 As title: http://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/globalassets/documents/media/press-releases/halifax/2015/housepriceindexaugust2015.pdf Commenting, Martin Ellis, Halifax housing economist, said: "House prices in the three months to August were 3.0% higher than in the previous quarter. This measure of the underlying rate of house price increased from last month’s 2.5% but remained below June’s 3.3%. “The underlying pace of house price growth is strong. The shortage of secondhand properties for sale on the market is resulting in upward pressure on house prices. At the same time, economic recovery, real earnings growth and very low mortgage rates are supporting housing demand. Strengthening demand and highly constrained supply are likely to mean that house price growth continues to be robust in the short-term.” Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lostinessex Posted September 10, 2015 Share Posted September 10, 2015 Good grief - when will this madness end. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted September 10, 2015 Share Posted September 10, 2015 That is truly truly truly insane. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Killer Bunny Posted September 10, 2015 Share Posted September 10, 2015 Volumes are down. We know that. PCL probably crashing. Global economy heading for Recession which could easily turn Depressionary. (Int rate hikes? Too funny.) I said last year when everyone here was cheering (nothing) that until prices were below 2013 nothing had changed in HPs. Still more patience required. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crashmonitor Posted September 10, 2015 Share Posted September 10, 2015 Per my commentary on here since about June, very low stocks but the easiest time to sell a house since 2003. Sold/Stock ratio incredibly high. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted September 10, 2015 Share Posted September 10, 2015 Volumes are down. We know that. PCL probably crashing. Global economy heading for Recession which could easily turn Depressionary. (Int rate hikes? Too funny.) I said last year when everyone here was cheering (nothing) that until prices were below 2013 nothing had changed in HPs. Still more patience required. The London funny money will destroy the housing market. Prices up 10% in a ytear....wages not up in 10 years. The time for patience is over...it's time to leave. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dgul Posted September 10, 2015 Share Posted September 10, 2015 That is truly truly truly insane. Just to kind of threw a positive spin: TPTB could possibly have kept the plates spinning with kind of stable-but-insane prices, with perhaps a little upwards bias - but this type of inflation is very unhealthy and may foretell (or even precipitate) a crash coming. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fully Detached Posted September 10, 2015 Author Share Posted September 10, 2015 We are now well above the previous nominal peak, and supply is hopelessly constrained. So all the BTL squealing and whining about the new tax changes have no excuse - no matter when you bought, there's never been a better time to Sell Now, Sell Everything. Unless they spunked all the equity on more houses, of course, in which case they are still ******ed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted September 10, 2015 Share Posted September 10, 2015 Just to kind of threw a positive spin: TPTB could possibly have kept the plates spinning with kind of stable-but-insane prices, with perhaps a little upwards bias - but this type of inflation is very unhealthy and may foretell (or even precipitate) a crash coming. There is that I suppose. Thje further they push it the better the collapse will be. I can scarcly believe what I am watching though. People must have very very very short memories. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted September 10, 2015 Share Posted September 10, 2015 We are now well above the previous nominal peak, and supply is hopelessly constrained. So all the BTL squealing and whining about the new tax changes have no excuse - no matter when you bought, there's never been a better time to Sell Now, Sell Everything. Unless they spunked all the equity on more houses, of course, in which case they are still ******ed. I would hazard a guess that they are even more f**ked now than they were in 2007. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crashmonitor Posted September 10, 2015 Share Posted September 10, 2015 (edited) We are now well above the previous nominal peak, and supply is hopelessly constrained. So all the BTL squealing and whining about the new tax changes have no excuse - no matter when you bought, there's never been a better time to Sell Now, Sell Everything. Unless they spunked all the equity on more houses, of course, in which case they are still ******ed. Seems the Government's covert policy of unlimited immigration (a million more every three years) and the complicity of the building sector not to build any houses is providing the necessary props. Only UKIP dare speak the truth. Stock is low because nobody can afford to move, certainly not up. Prices are high because of the above. Edited September 10, 2015 by crashmonitor Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted September 10, 2015 Share Posted September 10, 2015 We are now well above the previous nominal peak, and supply is hopelessly constrained. And how are your wages faring compare to that ? Job security ? Cost of living ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted September 10, 2015 Share Posted September 10, 2015 Seems the Government's covert policy of unlimited immigration (a million more every three years) and the complicity of the building sector not to build any houses is providing the necessary props. Only UKIP dare speak the truth. Stock is low because nobody can afford to move, certainly not up. Prices are high because of the above. Poor immigrants cant afford 500K flats. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeTrader Posted September 10, 2015 Share Posted September 10, 2015 Halifax long-term P/E ratio: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattyboy1973 Posted September 10, 2015 Share Posted September 10, 2015 The time for patience is over...it's time to leave. Indeed - patience my ar$e. I'm nearly 43 and by the time I can afford something decent I won't be able to get a mortgage. I can buy mortgage free somewhere else (or a sh!tbox here - I refuse). Time to go. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rantnrave Posted September 10, 2015 Share Posted September 10, 2015 Nationwide says annual house price growth in August fell to 3.2%. The Land Reg has also reported a falling annual growth rate, now down to 4.6%. Halifax says annual growth is picking up and is now 9%. Hmmm. I expect a significant minus figure from Halifax for September. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentaBear Posted September 10, 2015 Share Posted September 10, 2015 Poor immigrants cant afford 500K flats. From what I can see they can't use the HTB price inflation scheme either, plus they have no UK credit history. I doubt the banks prefer them to British FTB or BTLers who won't leave the UK if they go bankrupt. There is plenty of supply of credit in the UK housing market - that's what's keeping the ponzi going for now... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted September 10, 2015 Share Posted September 10, 2015 Halifax long-term P/E ratio: They are going for the full blown collapse then. Looking at the graph you have to consider 3 things: 1) Wages ( for the vast majority real workers ) have hardly risen since 2007. 2) 2007 interest rates versus 2015 interest rates 3) 2007 Cost of living versus 2015 cost of lving I'd say despite the graph being below the 2008 peak,. things are much much worse. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted September 10, 2015 Share Posted September 10, 2015 Nationwide says annual house price growth in August fell to 3.2%. The Land Reg has also reported a falling annual growth rate, now down to 4.6%. Halifax says annual growth is picking up and is now 9%. Hmmm. I expect a significant minus figure from Halifax for September. What makes you think the state owned/funded bank is wrong ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted September 10, 2015 Share Posted September 10, 2015 Halifax long-term P/E ratio: IN what year did the ever vigilent Mark Carnage come to town ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pipllman Posted September 10, 2015 Share Posted September 10, 2015 A crash is usually most likely when most commentators are not expecting it (look at oil last year for instance, there was no one - and I mean no one - that was calling for oil to go from $100 to $50, yet it did) Estimating the magnitude of a crash in advance is impossible Estimating the duration of a crash in advance and, in particular, when it will start, is impossible Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattyboy1973 Posted September 10, 2015 Share Posted September 10, 2015 Is it still the case that the Halifax use the mean adult male income in their P/E calcs? P/E would be a lot higher with the (more realistic) overall median. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crashmonitor Posted September 10, 2015 Share Posted September 10, 2015 (edited) Poor immigrants cant afford 500K flats. Poor immigrants need to be housed somewhere. Indeed if over a decade migrants took up the two million worst houses there would be a repricing effect on every subsequent tier( yes even £500,000) because it's a case of population against available units. Indeed even if there are enough houses to go around, the crash would be more profound if we had Irish style empty stock. Migration helps to prevent empty stock and a crash not just on cheap property but a ripple that would extend up the price scale. Edited September 10, 2015 by crashmonitor Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted September 10, 2015 Share Posted September 10, 2015 Indeed - patience my ar$e. I'm nearly 43 and by the time I can afford something decent I won't be able to get a mortgage. I can buy mortgage free somewhere else (or a sh!tbox here - I refuse). Time to go. I see no other option. I've been waiting for the right time to move, I think that time is now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted September 10, 2015 Share Posted September 10, 2015 (edited) Is it still the case that the Halifax use the mean adult male income in their P/E calcs? P/E would be a lot higher with the (more realistic) overall median. Yeah, but looking at 2007 versus 2015 I assume it's not changed. I really am shocked at what the government has done. Someone in Westmisnster has got to be up to their eyes in this s**t. The parallels with the railway mania are there for everyone to see. We will get a 2nd collapse. An extenbded bank holiday ( At least 1 wont open again ). Regulation of the banks and a few of the thieves made a scape goat. Edited September 10, 2015 by TheCountOfNowhere Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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