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About lostinessex

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  1. Mid-Essex - in the fairly low-end section of the market I'm following I'm not seeing much selling - in fact a couple of properties I was tracking reduced their prices this month. There was an open house on one I viewed at the weekend and I was told only one other person was booked in to view it. Might be different at the higher end of the market - I have seen a lot of nicer family homes going SSTC but down in the dregs I can afford things seem stagnant.
  2. If this encourages more properties to the market then this may not be a bad thing. I'm still seeing properties I've been tracking being reduced this year so even post-election there seems to be some buyer caution round my way (at least at my scuzzy end of the market). If lots of new sellers enter the market that presumably is going to put even more pressure on those properties that currently can't sell. That's my hope anyway - I'm just praying this doesn't instead feed into rising sold prices. Without new government intervention though I can't see the bottom end of the market (my bit!) rising too much as people are just too stretched.
  3. That's always my fear with a budget coming up *but* usually house price booms are timed by goverments to occur before elections - if they stoked one now they'd risk it leading to a crash three or four years down the line, around the time they'd be planning their next election campaigns. I'm wondering if they'll just try and keep things steady for a few years instead then try and ramp up prices in a few years time prior to Boris' campaign for a second term.
  4. Slightly depressing to see the headline annual increase shift up from last month to 1.4% - but dig deeper and the figures in my area look far better - East Anglia dropping to annual rises of just 0.1% (from 1.7% the previous quarter) and the falls in London increasing. In fact it looks like only bizarrely strong rises in Scotland keeping the headline figure positive overall. Will be interesting to see if there's any impact from a 'Boris bounce' in the next few months.
  5. Yes I realise how its caclulated. I wasn't claiming that wasn't possible, just voicing my disappointment that the more reliable annual figure is actually rising again rather than falling.
  6. Wow, nice monthly fall but disappointing that the annual figure has actually risen - it was -0.2% last month wasn't it?
  7. Hmmm, its a slow grind. The annual hpi figure looks to have stayed the same at 1.3% - it would be nice to see that go negative. My fear is that early next year the Brexit issue will be resolved one way or the other (at least from a headlines point of view - the boring trade negotiations will go on for years) and I can see a temporary HPI bump from that. I imagine that will peter out fairly quickly as the underlying issues for housing won't have changed (they're too expensive) but that could still postpone any crash another year or so and I'm rapidly running out of time.
  8. Thought I'd resurrect this thread - as I'm starting to see signs of Essex prices going into reverse - at least in some sectors. While I'm not interested in new build, there's a lot of 'luxury apartments' being built around Chelmsford. What's interesting though is the fate of the previous round of new-builds that are now hitting the market as second-hand sales as their original owners move on / get out. https://www.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/details/50854723?search_identifier=f249f345a53ccd1e9019a71d6f61e8e2 This was originally bought for £180,000 in 2007 - it's now on the market for 170,000 after having its price dropped twice since its original listing in March. So that's a £10,000 loss after 12 years in an area of the country that is larelgy viewed as having a fairly buoyant housing market in recent years! Can't go wrong with bricks and mortar... I've yet to see this sort of drop in older, more traditional homes but hopefully these are the first indicators of wider falls.
  9. They usually just switch to saying 'negative growth' ...ignore me - I see @m not the first to point that out!
  10. Yes, the YoY figures are going to be distorted by that freak Feb result for some time - if you strip that out the figures have been largely flat. I really want sentiment to turn soon though as I have a horrible feeling Boris is going to throw in some crazy house-buying incentive to boost confidence post-Brexit / bribe the electorate ahead of an election. Not sure I can waste another few years of my life watching the madness take hold again...
  11. Love the last comment on that page - what happens if the foreign investors, who have already stopped buying, start pulling their money out? This is a very unusual housing market. In previous crashes I've experienced property was largely people's own homes and therefore people would do anything to hold on to them when the economy got bad. But this bubble feels different, its largely been driven by investors - when you're not facing life on the streets its a lot easier to decide to sell and cut your losses. My guess is panic could set in quite quickly in the second-hand 'luxury' apartment market - and I guess no-one really knows whether there's even a market for second-hand investment properties.
  12. Yes I know its only asking prices but it's still a bellwether for sentiment -0.2 % this month - but that takes it to 0.2% YoY too https://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/house-price-index/ Will we start seeing these stumbling asking prices being translated into negative sell prices in the coming months?
  13. Has this been posted yet? https://www.ft.com/content/64c381c8-8798-11e9-a028-86cea8523dc2 From a new FT series entitled "Peak Property: Building a Bubble"
  14. Because they drive sentiment with the man (or woman) in the street. Most of us here on the forum are house price obsessives and constantly scan every indicator out there and are aware of the pros and cons of each report - but not everyone's as obsessed as us and there sentiment will be driven by anecdotes and newspaper headlines. For us to get a crash we need sentiment to change, for something to challenge the mantra of house-prices-only-ever-go-up. However much you may or may not trust the figures, this is a report that gets widely reported and in the past has driven big sentiment affecting headlines. If the Nationwide report shows big rises then paper's like the Daily Express publish headlines about booming house prices - but I also recall these reports driving panic-inducing headlines about tumbling prices.
  15. Oh good grief - I give up. That's going to be the headline in every newspaper in the land tomorrow - just the sentiment boost the market wants for a Spring Bounce.
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