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lostinessex

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  1. lostinessex

    Evening Standard change their tune

    While the original post misunderstood the ES headline - this opinion piece from their regular business contributor Anthony Hilton in yesterday's edition is more hpc friendly: https://www.standard.co.uk/business/anthony-hilton-blame-the-banks-for-house-price-surge-as-lending-soars-a4060451.html "Housing has become financialised. People now buy hoping to make money rather than find somewhere to live. Council houses sold off by Thatcher are bought by landlords who make money at market rates while councils have waiting lists. Inequality is rising fast." "To repeat, mortgage lending has gone from 25% to 75% of bank assets since the Eighties. Finance for business is now down to around 10%. The Government could have leant against this pressure and restrained banks. But they went the other way. They decided the problem was demand and introduced Help to Buy, thereby adding a subsidy to make lending even cheaper. Builders made fabulous profits, homebuyers had to dig even deeper."
  2. " In a grim assessment of the financial health of UK households, the FCA warned that the burden of a mortgage throughout people’s working lives is likely to limit their ability to save for a pension and deal with financial shocks. " Well that sounds like it's going to pan out well - more people entering retirement still needing to pay off their mortgage and those same people will be the ones who won't have been able to save as much into their pension to pay for it. You seriously could not make this up.
  3. lostinessex

    Halifax January 2019

    arghhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!
  4. lostinessex

    Halifax Nov 2018

    Wow - almost there now. For me, however much we might sneer at the accuracy of these figures (particularly when they show a rise!), for the general public these are numbers they see in the news so are key for shifting sentiment, and once sentiment shifts the herd mentatlity can easily take over. Once sentiment shifts, then banks get more nervous about lending and start asking for bigger deposits and higher interest rates, which in turn drives down prices in a viscious circle - or that's the hope anyway! Nearly there now, nearly there...
  5. Worth reading the report - the London situation isn't as bouyant as the yoy figure initially indicates. The average has been heavily skewed by a 20% rise in the City of London - which as anyone who knows London will know isn't an awash with residential property - what little it does tends to be very high value. The map they show of the wider London aread is a sea of drops with a handful of regions rising.
  6. I'd love a rate rise in November but I think if one was on the way the BoE would be dropping hints and making sure the media were setting expectations first. In the run-up to the last rise the business sections were full of opionion peices discussing the possibility weeks before. Earlier in the year the prosepct of two rises this year got regularly mentioned in business articles in the media - but since the last rise I've not heard that discussed at all.
  7. Very encouraged by this report - while the overall YoY still looks like prices are holding up - round my way - East of England - prices plummeted this month and a similar drop over the next couple of months should see them YoY negative. Shame the prospect of a second interest rate rise is off the table - that would make things really interesting. It's all about sentiment. Hopefully when the BTL brigade do their tax returns in Jan 2019 that might cause a few more to decide to sell off. This crash will be different - owner occupiers hold on for dear life making downward trend sticky, but BTL 'investors'... well we'll have to see. Could there be a rush to the exits? 2019 shping up to be very interesting - just praying the Autumn budget doesn't mess things up with some new prop.
  8. lostinessex

    Rightmove Oct 2018

    Annual rise now under 1% - I'll take that. Be nice if it went negative for the start of 2019. I get the feeling a lot of confidence is starting to drain away out there in the wider economy. The only thing I can see that could cause a bounce back in hpi in the near term is the Brexit deal finally being resolved (in whatever form) and a sort of pent-up relief that the uncertainty is over. Otherwise I think we could start to see serious drops next year as investors (foreign and BTL) start to panic and try to unload stock at the top of the market.
  9. lostinessex

    Examples of big & multiple drops

    OK I know finding massive falls in London SW8 is a bit like shooting fish in a barrel - but I like this one - bought for 580,000 in 2014 - tries to sell for £800,000 three years later. Fails... https://www.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/details/47136225?search_identifier=63941b275b6ee60bec36067b557258a4
  10. Where I was in Essex (so solid London commuting territory) house prices were 10 to 20% off their 2007 peak values a good few years following the credit crunch. At the time they still felt over-priced as they'd obviously risen way more than that during those crazy years of 2000 to 2006 - but they had certainly fallen and were fairly stagnant for a couple of years. For a year or so I was actually looking at properties / putting in offers. I remember being shown one property by a glum looking couple - then going home and checking the last sold price on Rightmove and it was 20% higher than the current asking price. No wonder they looked miserable. It was only when Osbourne brought in HTB2 (what was that 2012 / 13?) that prices suddenly leapt back up again (around 20% in a year) and suddenly everything was back out of reach again. So we may not have exactly seen the bubble burst but there was a brief window round my way where it had defintitely deflated for a while.
  11. lostinessex

    Land Registry in July +1.2%

    OK a big monthly leap but note the YoY is slightly down even so - from 3.2 to 3.1 As long as that figure keeps edging down I'm happy - and I live in the South East so the regional YoY is actually 1.8%. It's getting to the stage where my savings are growing faster than house prices. I can only see things getting tougher for the housing market in the coming months - keep the faith!
  12. Fantastic post - a great example where visualising data really has an impact - you can see confidence in London property sliding away right before your eyes!
  13. lostinessex

    Halifax July 2018

    Grim reading. For me the key to a crash - in the absence of some global event forcing the BoE to raise interest rates higher / faster than expected - is the BTL market starting a mass sell-off. The phased in reduction of tax relief is a step towards that *but* with house price indicies still showing prices rising I can't help feeling landlors will hold on to thei properties even if their profits start to vanish purely on the back on capital gains. So getting that YoY figure negative - even by 1 or 2 % to me is critical - that could get the ball rollingand things could start to go into reverse very quickly then.
  14. lostinessex

    Nationwide Jul 2018

    OK wasn't expecting that - the cynic in me thought they'd fudge the figures to avoid a rise to avoid giving Carney another excuse for raising interest rates tomorrow. If the BoE chickens out and doesn't raise rates tomorrow then I'll be in despair. The only thing keeping me going at the moment I'm building up my deposit savings at a faster rate than the annual HPI figure - but man, am I sick of waiting for this insanity to end.
  15. lostinessex

    Intrusive adverts making this site unusable

    thanks for the tip - those moving video ads were driving me insane! Installed and I can feel my stress levels dropping almost imediately - well at least until I start reading about house prices again...
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