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About lostinessex

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  1. I feel genuinely fearful for what's going to happen with house prices in the coming months. I'd spent years saving to finally get to a position where I felt comortable putting in offers at the start of 2020 - thanks to the market around where I live in Essex finally seeming to have plateaued for a couple of years. Came close to having an offer accepted, but then put everything on hold during the early stages of the pandemic as there was so much uncertainty at work - but started feeling confident to start looking again late last year. With the budget reveals I decided it was time to get in before things start getting crazy, but suddenly this week the three properties I'd been tracking for weeks all went SSTC - I'm guessing people like me trying to get in before the madness starts. I'm already feeling paniced - which is of course the worst state to be in when making rational choices about vast financial decisions. How can we have had two of the biggest financial crises of the the last hundred years in the space of the last 15 years, and a decade of stagnant wages - and it result in a booming market? It's madness. If I was younger I'd just try riding it out - but at my age I'm conscious of every year lost saving to try and catch up again. It's going to be a sickenign few months I think.
  2. It feels almost criminal. In a normal market, if a price if too high for your customers you have to drop the price. The government bring in HTB so developers can sell at the price they want by shoring up the purchasers ability to pay *but* once someone buys the flat, its no-longer new build, so when the owner in turn tries to sell there's no government funded aid for their potenital buyers. So the market will eventually correct, the government have just designed it so that its the public who get lumbered with the losses not the developers.
  3. OK going to reply to my own thread - after some digging found this article by Which from June 2020 (apologies if this got posted back then). Interestingly, they talk about how the equity made by people who have paid back their HTB loan has decreased each year - meaning the ability to 'move up the ladder' is fast vanishing. The data they have only goes up to 2018. https://www.which.co.uk/news/2020/06/exclusive-one-in-seven-help-to-buy-homes-lose-value-despite-local-house-prices-soaring/
  4. I think Feb 2021 is the 5 year anniversary of the launch of London HTB - when the scheme was extended in London to allow 40% of the mortgage to be borrowed rather than the previous 20%. That means anyone who took advantage of the scheme will soon start needing to pay back the 40% loan. What do people think the impact will be - if any? There's a few things that strike me about this scheme. The sudden jump in payments is obviously going to be felt more for a 40% loan than the previous 20% loan. But also, when HTB first launched (2013) it triggered house prices to rise - round my way (Essex) by far more than 20% - but the London scheme happened to kick off around the time the market started to slow - in fact, I think in a lot of areas prices in London have probably stagnated since 2017 (its easy to forget amongst recent news stories about booming prices but London had been drifting down for a couple of years up until the start of Covid). I'm wondering if there's soon going to be a lot of stories about young professional couples, who have bought London new build (which being London is likely to be 'luxury' apartments rather than family homes) now five years older and wanting to move to somewhere bigger to have kids - but struggling to sell as prices haven't risen but, as their property is now nolonger new-build and eligable for HTB, anyone wanting to buy it off them would need to be 40% richer than they were to afford the price. Does that make sense? Also, when you sell you have to pay back the 40% loan - so if the value of the apartment hasn't risen, they're 40% worse off (minus any equity they've accrued over 5 years - which won't be much on a 30+ year mortgage as typical in London) when they attempt to move to the next step of the ladder. So they'd be climbing down the ladder not up it. Maybe I'm overthinking all this though - or don't really understand the scheme. Be interested to hear other people's thoughts.
  5. I think they're known as 'luxury apartments' these days
  6. Not seen this posted yet: https://www.theguardian.com/money/2020/jul/15/london-rents-falling-tenants-coronavirus-lockdown He concludes that we shouldn't expect a house price crash, but before that lots of good bear food about plummeting rental prices in London.
  7. Pretty much mirrors what I expect - seems to be backed up by this story in the Guardian today too https://www.theguardian.com/money/2020/jul/15/stamp-duty-cut-fuels-surge-of-interest-in-london-commuter-belt As you say though, moving to the countryside only works if you can sell your property in the city.
  8. Yes I'm sure that's why 90% mortgages are being withdrawn! If they want a deposit bigger than 10% that means they expect falls to be bigger than 10% - also presumably if they thought that risk was remote they'd leave 90% mortgages out there but just price the risk (i.e. the interest rate they charge you) to reflect that - the fact they're withdrawing them completely suggests to me they think that fall is pretty much a certainty.
  9. Mid-Essex - in the fairly low-end section of the market I'm following I'm not seeing much selling - in fact a couple of properties I was tracking reduced their prices this month. There was an open house on one I viewed at the weekend and I was told only one other person was booked in to view it. Might be different at the higher end of the market - I have seen a lot of nicer family homes going SSTC but down in the dregs I can afford things seem stagnant.
  10. If this encourages more properties to the market then this may not be a bad thing. I'm still seeing properties I've been tracking being reduced this year so even post-election there seems to be some buyer caution round my way (at least at my scuzzy end of the market). If lots of new sellers enter the market that presumably is going to put even more pressure on those properties that currently can't sell. That's my hope anyway - I'm just praying this doesn't instead feed into rising sold prices. Without new government intervention though I can't see the bottom end of the market (my bit!) rising too much as people are just too stretched.
  11. That's always my fear with a budget coming up *but* usually house price booms are timed by goverments to occur before elections - if they stoked one now they'd risk it leading to a crash three or four years down the line, around the time they'd be planning their next election campaigns. I'm wondering if they'll just try and keep things steady for a few years instead then try and ramp up prices in a few years time prior to Boris' campaign for a second term.
  12. Slightly depressing to see the headline annual increase shift up from last month to 1.4% - but dig deeper and the figures in my area look far better - East Anglia dropping to annual rises of just 0.1% (from 1.7% the previous quarter) and the falls in London increasing. In fact it looks like only bizarrely strong rises in Scotland keeping the headline figure positive overall. Will be interesting to see if there's any impact from a 'Boris bounce' in the next few months.
  13. Yes I realise how its caclulated. I wasn't claiming that wasn't possible, just voicing my disappointment that the more reliable annual figure is actually rising again rather than falling.
  14. Wow, nice monthly fall but disappointing that the annual figure has actually risen - it was -0.2% last month wasn't it?
  15. Hmmm, its a slow grind. The annual hpi figure looks to have stayed the same at 1.3% - it would be nice to see that go negative. My fear is that early next year the Brexit issue will be resolved one way or the other (at least from a headlines point of view - the boring trade negotiations will go on for years) and I can see a temporary HPI bump from that. I imagine that will peter out fairly quickly as the underlying issues for housing won't have changed (they're too expensive) but that could still postpone any crash another year or so and I'm rapidly running out of time.
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