Guest_northshore_* Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Is this the reason why the ecb changed there meting schedule from monthly to every six weeks?the cynical side of me things a month is now seen to be long enough for forward guidance to work ,,let them stew/guess a bit longer No idea. A cynic might say less regularly makes more sense when there's little likelihood of any change. Reality is probably more about having fewer dates for markets to obsess and wail over. RK - definitely politics, and why a bet on no EZ QE has been correct so far. If europe wants to undermine the political route by pandering to trading desks again then good luck to them. I'd love to see Germany push out Greece. Every peripheral country exiting the Euro increasingly shows up the reality of the German economic model and begins the adjustments which have to happen at some time. To be fair though, Germany hasn't been publicly arguing for QE they've been trying (their own) political avenues. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
copydude Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Agree. This is so much more about politics than monetary operations at this juncture. I'd imagine Draghi would not want to be seen influencing the election outcome. Germany though? Who knows whether they really want Syriza to win or lose . Scurrilous rumours say that Merkel would love to be shot of the Greeks . . . and I think there the feeling is mutual . . . but there is all this gas around. Was Pap put up to fielding a new party to dilute the vote? Perhaps by the US? Politics aside, it won't have much support in Germany . . . maybe even another challenge in the constitutional court . . . there seems to be a feeling that Greece is no longer 'systemic' . . . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 No idea. A cynic might say less regularly makes more sense when there's little likelihood of any change. Reality is probably more about having fewer dates for markets to obsess and wail over. RK - definitely politics, and why a bet on no EZ QE has been correct so far. If europe wants to undermine the political route by pandering to trading desks again then good luck to them. I'd love to see Germany push out Greece. Every peripheral country exiting the Euro increasingly shows up the reality of the German economic model and begins the adjustments which have to happen at some time. To be fair though, Germany hasn't been publicly arguing for QE they've been trying (their own) political avenues. There seems to be a struggle going on within Germany also. Good cop/bad cop. Weidmann/Merkel etc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roman Roady Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Is the average Greek voter going to be swayed by what the ECB does a few days before they vote? Too late IMPO. The EU needed to get tangible results that the Greeks could see a long time ago....not play with abstract ideas that may or may not work for them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest_northshore_* Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 There seems to be a struggle going on within Germany also. Good cop/bad cop. Weidmann/Merkel etc. Good cop/bad cop is essential to it all even standing still - keeping everyone's ideal alive. I doubt they have any better idea than hpc posters on what to really do. If they did they would have done it. Like everything else in life a good idea is only a good idea if it works for yours truly.The EZ and a single currency is a lovely idea. I agree. It doesn't work without massive winners/losers. I agree. The losers won't stick around for ever so absent continental government stormtroopers or significant treaty revision it will ultimately fail anyway as far as I'm concerned. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Venger Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 So we should expect Santander UK mortgage rates to drop further? Santander, the eurozone’s biggest bank, selling new shares to bolster its capital position. One of the many ECB QE bulls here, but some interesting charts. http://www.georgemagnus.com/the-ecb-and-qe-in-the-last-chance-saloon/ The amount could be limited to the €1 trillion increase in the balance sheet which the ECB has stated it wants, but bearing in mind other asset programmes and the ‘monetary financing’ stigma of sovereign purchases, the amount could be lower, say 500-750 billion. This would compare with the nearly €2 trillion of sovereigns it would have to buy if it were going to match the efforts of the Fed and the Bank of England. ...In any event, the forecasts and the ECB’s latest thinking pre-date the most recent sharp falls in the price of crude oil. By itself, this wouldn’t necessarily be the deflationary risk that many economists seem to think it is. But it is a problem in the context of the Eurozone’s existing proclivity to deflation as a result of inadequate aggregate and a still dysfunctional banking system. Some alarming recent comments from ECB QE bulls in the main ECB thread. Can't help but picture all the QE bulls as typically older, owning in super-high value luxury homes and country retreats, from Paris to Milan to Barcelona, to non-full euro member bubbled Sweden.. as they look down on the crisis. As landlords rub their hands and corner in younger professionals even further.. decade after decade; with locked in hpi. Demand for would pick up with falling house prices, and thus rebalance mortgage growth by itself from renter/savers/younger generations finally able to afford to buy.. and create wider demand for furnishings and so on - imo - self-balancing if you stop locking in the hpi for older elite VI property gods and their inheritors. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billybong Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 (edited) Maybe they'll introduce some UK style Funding For Lending and Help to Sell etc policies as well - if they haven't already done so. They should go the whole hog and it might help to divert some overseas housing "investment" away from the UK. Edited January 9, 2015 by billybong Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Good cop/bad cop is essential to it all even standing still - keeping everyone's ideal alive. I doubt they have any better idea than hpc posters on what to really do. If they did they would have done it. Like everything else in life a good idea is only a good idea if it works for yours truly.The EZ and a single currency is a lovely idea. I agree. It doesn't work without massive winners/losers. I agree. The losers won't stick around for ever so absent continental government stormtroopers or significant treaty revision it will ultimately fail anyway as far as I'm concerned. Aree. Can't really see how forcing risk back onto periphery CBs is anything other than a step backward. Euro now well into its 2nd decade. At least UK was forced out of ERM in reasonably short order. EZ appears to have entered a Soros-type static disequilibrium. Perhaps a Syriza victory can shift that, perhaps not. Eventually something has to give way though, whether political or financial or social. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 So is it confirmed or not ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Limon Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 So is it confirmed or not ? No, if an announcement is going to be made it'll be after the 22nd. This confirms that they're seriously considering it and drawing up plans but nothing more just yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest_northshore_* Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Aree. Can't really see how forcing risk back onto periphery CBs is anything other than a step backward. Euro now well into its 2nd decade. At least UK was forced out of ERM in reasonably short order. EZ appears to have entered a Soros-type static disequilibrium. Perhaps a Syriza victory can shift that, perhaps not. Eventually something has to give way though, whether political or financial or social. Europe is ok and much better than the AEP's of the world conclude. It's just really bad for some. A six-year crisis has amounted to a total of lower rates, cycling monies around the system and a lot of talk. Six years is long enough to think of a simple solution if one exists. So I assume the consequent extension of social and financial pain, particularly on the young, is on purpose. And implies the technocratic middle-aged dream won't end well because relative benefits appear to depend on relative pains. Who knows whether Syriza start any real backlash. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 No, if an announcement is going to be made it'll be after the 22nd. This confirms that they're seriously considering it and drawing up plans but nothing more just yet. Thanks for clarifying that. I dont see how The Draghi Queen can get QE past the Germans with their being riots/legal challenges. Not everyone is europe is as docile as the English. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Thanks for clarifying that. I dont see how The Draghi Queen can get QE past the Germans with their being riots/legal challenges. Not everyone is europe is as docile as the English. The ECJ is due to make a ruling on the legality of the ESM (european stability mechanism) next weds 14th. In any event ahead of the ECB mtg on 22.1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 The ECJ is due to make a ruling on the legality of the ESM (european stability mechanism) next weds 14th. In any event ahead of the ECB mtg on 22.1 Looks like it's the German people rioting then.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oliver Sutton Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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