Joe Public Does Not Give A Feck About Inverted Yield Curves

[beenhearingthisforyears]

Been talking to lots ORDINARY people last few days and many do not feel there will be a house price crash. slight slowdown / re-adjustment yes. I do not consider myself stupid - self employed and manage to get by - but i do not understand - and honestly believe that the mass population do not understand or have any inclination to understand - yield curves, indices etc.

Why do “we” not believe there will be HPC? Many well informed people on this board know their facts I will not dispute that. I/Joe public watches the news/reads daily paper - if you are lucky - and all they hear is the country is doing ok. BBC news reported ok picture coming out of American over the weekend and spoke of the economy "turning a corner there." Just today 5/12/05 BBC - spoke of "if this is as bad at is gets" with regard to the UK economy and Brown's pre budget declarations. The message being seen by masses is compounded by latest results published by Halifax last week showing slight house price increases. High street spending down? agreed/ yes but internet spending UP. In our heads we book Easyjet not travel agent so "many" Xmas gifts "surely" come from internet too. And B&Q have rude, crap staff so no wonder they are loosing money. (these are kind of comments I was getting from taxi drivers/ shop staff / in pub etc. To the me/ the uninformed it is kind of not surprising. With Uk employment at record high it does NOT sound as if the World is crashing into a hole of black gloom. And i know that people will say the BBC/media is biased.......but people "believe" the BBC.

Also the news with regard to BTL/landlord legalisation/tax implications: a creative accountant can get you out of many tax corners and save you £1000's and still keep this side of the law. My own accountant has many landlords on his books and it is UNBELIEVABLE what he gets them out of. One guy was caught taking part cash rents - his tenant reported him - and he got the landlord off by saying the "cash" was used for weekly gardening/window cleaning etc all paid in cash. the IR did not throw the book at the guy and he lives to earn another £.

I am ONLY interested to give a little balance to these boards b/c it is ok to believe that we will not have a massive crash UK wide. And many people out in the Uk agree with that.

[Fancypants]

I am ONLY interested to give a little balance to these boards b/c it is ok to believe that we will not have a massive crash UK wide. And many people out in the Uk agree with that.

you're absolutely right of course. This IS what the majority of Joe Public think at the moment. What they don't realise is that they are being led over a precipice.

The people on this board can see it coming.

[woody]

I agree that Joe Public don't understand what is going on - but also the politicians are beginning to accept that they have no idea. I understand that Crash Gordon today announced that he had got his sums wrong.

Happens to us all from time to time.

There there. Gordon. Not to worry, we all forgive you. maybe you'll wake up tomorrow and find its all a bad dream. Still. No damage done right?

er. OH. um... arrrrrrrrrrggggggggggggghhhhhhhhhhhhhh

PANIC!!!!!!! WE'RE ALL DOOMED.

(WHERE IS BRUNO WHEN WE NEED HIM?)

[Guest]

B&Q have rude, crap staff so no wonder they are loosing

Twenty-two stores must have been one hell of a lot of rude staff.

[beenhearingthisforyears]

Twenty-two stores must have been one hell of a lot of rude staff.

crap staff? go into any b&q store on a weekend and ask for some assistance.........IF you can find any staff.

[Once in a lifetime]

An analogy that springs to mind is the scene in the film Titanic,where

One of the stewards is trying to convince the 3rd class passengers that

There is plenty of life boats left, while standing in front of the locked

Door blocking their way!

[IMupNorth]

B&Q are crap, not because of the staff but because the quality of their merchandise is crap and is overpriced.

Also, their market is changing, the vast majority of people have no idea about how to do DIY these days. Too many people doing admin, call centre work - very few involved in manufacturing, building etc and hence possessing the common sense skills in DIY.

B&Q will die a death unless, they start providing 'good value' installation advice and men. ie. hire a man to help you.

Seems to me they have taken their business downmarket, when they should have done exactly the opposite.

[BuyingBear]

Been talking to lots ORDINARY people last few days and many do not feel there will be a house price crash. slight slowdown / re-adjustment yes. I do not consider myself stupid - self employed and manage to get by - but i do not understand - and honestly believe that the mass population do not understand or have any inclination to understand - yield curves, indices etc.

Joe Public doesn't know the difference between £1t and £100k when written down, just because they don't know their **** from their elbow doesn't mean that £1 trillion is actually £100k.

People were pouring money into the dotcom bubble hours before it went through the floor, people even poured more money in on the way down hoping for a recovery

How many millions of copies of Dow 30000 did they shift just weeks before things went tits up in 2000?

Edited December 5, 2005 by BuyingBear

[slapper slater]

Been talking to lots ORDINARY people last few days and many do not feel there will be a house price crash. slight slowdown / re-adjustment yes. I do not consider myself stupid - self employed and manage to get by - but i do not understand - and honestly believe that the mass population do not understand or have any inclination to understand - yield curves, indices etc.

Why do “we” not believe there will be HPC? Many well informed people on this board know their facts I will not dispute that. I/Joe public watches the news/reads daily paper - if you are lucky - and all they hear is the country is doing ok. BBC news reported ok picture coming out of American over the weekend and spoke of the economy "turning a corner there." Just today 5/12/05 BBC - spoke of "if this is as bad at is gets" with regard to the UK economy and Brown's pre budget declarations. The message being seen by masses is compounded by latest results published by Halifax last week showing slight house price increases. High street spending down? agreed/ yes but internet spending UP. In our heads we book Easyjet not travel agent so "many" Xmas gifts "surely" come from internet too. And B&Q have rude, crap staff so no wonder they are loosing money. (these are kind of comments I was getting from taxi drivers/ shop staff / in pub etc. To the me/ the uninformed it is kind of not surprising. With Uk employment at record high it does NOT sound as if the World is crashing into a hole of black gloom. And i know that people will say the BBC/media is biased.......but people "believe" the BBC.

Also the news with regard to BTL/landlord legalisation/tax implications: a creative accountant can get you out of many tax corners and save you £1000's and still keep this side of the law. My own accountant has many landlords on his books and it is UNBELIEVABLE what he gets them out of. One guy was caught taking part cash rents - his tenant reported him - and he got the landlord off by saying the "cash" was used for weekly gardening/window cleaning etc all paid in cash. the IR did not throw the book at the guy and he lives to earn another £.

I am ONLY interested to give a little balance to these boards b/c it is ok to believe that we will not have a massive crash UK wide. And many people out in the Uk agree with that.

I hear what you say, and you are right. Just because the driver can't see the cyclist in his blindspot doesn't mean he won't hit him!

The reality will out, one way or another.

[Fancypants]

B&Q are crap, not because of the staff but because the quality of their merchandise is crap and is overpriced.

Also, their market is changing, the vast majority of people have no idea about how to do DIY these days. Too many people doing admin, call centre work - very few involved in manufacturing, building etc and hence possessing the common sense skills in DIY.

B&Q will die a death unless, they start providing 'good value' installation advice and men. ie. hire a man to help you.

Seems to me they have taken their business downmarket, when they should have done exactly the opposite.

"not a snowball's chance in hell of me ever agreeing with this chap" I thought quietly to myself.

And there you go, sometimes snowballs do survive the searing flames of Hades

[foxytrader]

"I am ONLY interested to give a little balance to these boards b/c it is ok to believe that we will not have a massive crash UK wide. And many people out in the Uk agree with that."

It's ok to believe whatever you like. Plenty of people believed property couldn't crash in 1988, TMTs in 2001 and tulips in the 18th century...and many other people agreed.

Depends what you mean by a massive crash. If we saw avarage prices back at 145k in 18 months that would broadly equate to a 20% real fall. Would that be a crash?

[brainclamp]

I do believe the yield curve is quite impressive as an indicator of the future, however it has to truely invert and not just flatten to be good enough to react to I think.

The mystery of the yield curve can be unlocked by observing that inflation in general prices brings higher short term interest rates from the central bank to control it, and longer duration debt yeilds will price in a sucessfull control of inflation and lower commodities prices by in turn lowering the real yield they expect.

This of course affects banks lending as volumes of loans lent out has to stop - by definition as far as the central bank is concerned, the money flow (loans flow) has to collapse to weaken demand - to stop the double digit volumes of new money destroying the economy, bank profits collapse and the FTSE's returns are lowered.

This has to be the bears strongest reasonable argument for lower real houseprices. The UK yield curve is basically flat but tipping towards inversion at present, with both the central bank and Gordan Brown popping out stressing the need for lower wage settlements from the huge public sector, and the assurance that inflation will stay at 2%.

However, if the dollar rises to correct its imbalances with unemployment like in the 1980s, or like in 1989 then inflation will accelerate quickly. Thats right - I said rises to correct its imbalances.

Edited December 5, 2005 by brainclamp

[beenhearingthisforyears]

"I am ONLY interested to give a little balance to these boards b/c it is ok to believe that we will not have a massive crash UK wide. And many people out in the Uk agree with that."

It's ok to believe whatever you like. Plenty of people believed property couldn't crash in 1988, TMTs in 2001 and tulips in the 18th century...and many other people agreed.

Depends what you mean by a massive crash. If we saw avarage prices back at 145k in 18 months that would broadly equate to a 20% real fall. Would that be a crash?

In the last crash people were very concerned about rising unemployment and rising interest rates a long time b4 the crash actually happened. it was a gradual drip, drip thing. I am talking about now with unemployment at all time low, and low IR. And more people than ever have booked xmas breaks overseas so someone has money. the word on the street is NOT the word on THESE boards. Maybe media/millions on the street are wrong and you are right???

Edited December 5, 2005 by beenhearingthisforyears

[Guest Bart of Darkness]

I am talking about now with unemployment at all time low

An the number of people receiving disability allowance at an all time high (4 million).

Odd that.

There's more than one way to fiddle figures.

[London-loser]

As others say on this thread, taking investment advice from the man on the Clapham omnibus is a great way to become poor.

They'll tell you property is a terrible investment just about the time that the market bottoms out (not when it tops out).

And for the record, as pointed out over and over again on this site, unemployment rises AFTER house prices fall not before... prices peak out as everyone is very confident and extrapolate a wonderfully bright economic future... and later find out they were wrong.

[Europa]

Been talking to lots ORDINARY people last few days and many do not feel there will be a house price crash. slight slowdown / re-adjustment yes. I do not consider myself stupid - self employed and manage to get by - but i do not understand - and honestly believe that the mass population do not understand or have any inclination to understand - yield curves, indices etc.

Let me add another laboured analogy to this thread - if the man in the street doesn't understand gravity, will he float off into space? Or will the rules still apply.

Not understanding economics doesn't grant Joe public some sort of immunity

Edited December 5, 2005 by Europa

[foxytrader]

In the last crash people were very concerned about rising unemployment and rising interest rates a long time b4 the crash actually happened. it was a gradual drip, drip thing. I am talking about now with unemployment at all time low, and low IR. And more people than ever have booked xmas breaks overseas so someone has money. the word on the street is NOT the word on THESE boards. Maybe media/millions on the street are wrong and you are right???

"The word on the street"? Who are you - Wolfie Smith?

Employment and IRs are contributory factors but record numbers of houses were sold in 1988 so not that many people were concerned.

People don't talk a market crash whether its stocks houses or anything else. It happens. Its a slow realisation not a bolt from the blue.

A week in Dubai for 3k is not the same as choosing to buy a 370k property and hardly an indicator of house price health.

I appreciate today has been an awful day for bulls but let's keep some proportion.

The Fox

[beenhearingthisforyears]

Let me add another laboured analogy to this thread - if the man in the street doesn't understand gravity, will he float off into space? Or will the rules still apply.

Not understanding economics doesn't grant Joe public some sort of immunity

It not just the man on the street is it? Could someone tell me why the BBC has a VI spinning house prices?

[Nomadd]

It not just the man on the street is it? Could someone tell me why the BBC has a VI spinning house prices?

Would "The man in the street" include FTB'ers? Yes, I thought it would. So where are they, then?

So many replies to your thread, and not one AWOOGA (there, I did it for you. :-))

Nomadd

[Rapid Descent]

In the last crash people were very concerned about rising unemployment and rising interest rates a long time b4 the crash actually happened. it was a gradual drip, drip thing.

Hmm, this doesn't sound familiar. I know a few people who jumped in to the property market late in 1988, because the media was telling them that prices only go up and "if you don't get on board now, you'll never be able to afford a house". During the boom period, IRs were at 9%. When the bust started, they went up to 12%, peaking at 15% - less than double, equivalent to IRs hitting the dizzy heights of around 6-7% today in terms of effects on repayments.

Unemployment and repossessions kicked off after the crash had begun - we are seeing unemployment and repossessions moving up today.

These are all old, tired arguments that have been done to death on this board.

I am talking about now with unemployment at all time low, and low IR. And more people than ever have booked xmas breaks overseas so someone has money. the word on the street is NOT the word on THESE boards. Maybe media/millions on the street are wrong and you are right???

If you wait for the masses to realise a crash is going to happen, it has already happened. That's the point. You are watching the market through the rear-view mirror.

[RichM]

If you wait for the masses to realise a crash is going to happen, it has already happened. That's the point. You are watching the market through the rear-view mirror.

So true

[beenhearingthisforyears]

Would "The man in the street" include FTB'ers? Yes, I thought it would. So where are they, then?

So many replies to your thread, and not one AWOOGA (there, I did it for you. :-))

Nomadd

you must try harder mate. last week i got loads abusive responses....and some even got removed for being abusive by moderator. not sure why as honestly does not bother me. i just find SOME of the responses on these boards REALLY show the people for what they are. We can all use the f word or call someone a Wa$$er......(not directed at you)

i am one of the FEW on here with differing views to the majority. And if people think my views are extreme ...well i question their judgement. I am on here b/c a nervous ftb lurker reading these threads could be led to believe the end of the world is nigh. It could be? but as this forum has been running for 2 yrs i would love to know how many people HONESTLY have no regrets for not buying back then. SOME People who purchased 2 yrs ago can take a 20% hit and not really worry about it.....i reiterate the word SOME.

Edited December 5, 2005 by beenhearingthisforyears

[Ferret]

I am on here b/c a nervous ftb lurker reading these threads could be led to believe the end of the world is nigh.

Well well a VI poster or a highly leveraged BTL looking for FTBs to offload his portfolio on to . I`m sure the lurkers are most grateful to you for reassuring them and protecting their interests.

And as mentioned b4 i am not BTL / landlord, just own one small 1 bed flat.

Sorry i cannot tell you i am having a very hard time, but as a freelancer i have worked my ar$e off to get where i am and this yr has been ok for me, just ok

Do you really believe that BTL's are ALSO not cleaning up in gold/shares too, or do people on these boards hold a monopoly on that little secret? Most of us are spreading our investments. And doing ok

Edited December 5, 2005 by fedupwaiting

[OnlyMe]

Joe Public Does Not Give A Feck About Inverted Yield Curves Options

They should, they've been borrowing and spending like mad off the yield curve the last few years. Suppose nobody bothered telling them.

Edited December 5, 2005 by OnlyMe

[Mushroom]

"The man on the street". Just what does that mean?

Many organisations in recent years have tried to help folk become "educated consumers" such that they are not conned in their purchases.

Still many complaints in all areas of activity, cars, house repairs, financial services etc.

Fact is, if folk don't want to learn you can't make them and they are then easy prey.

If people can't master the skills to act intelligently in the simpler areas, what hope for them in issues that involve the complexities of the interaction between economics and politics.

Anyways economics is boring ain't it.

No wonder the rich get richer and the politicians get away with their hypocrisy.

The older I get, the more I despair.