TheCountOfNowhere Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 2 hours ago, suresh786 said: No signs of the crash Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
suresh786 Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 18 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said: If it was then prices would be coming down in all boroughs like snowball Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 20 minutes ago, suresh786 said: If it was then prices would be coming down in all boroughs like snowball No, that would be a "crash", you said signs of a crash: City of London / Jul 2016 / -10.2% (-12.2%) Tower Hamlets / Mar 2016 / -4.7% (-4.0%) Haringey / Feb 2017 / -3.7% (-11.1%) Greenwich / Feb 2017 / -3.0% (-12.0%) Hackney / Mar 2016 / -3.0% (-2.6%) Wandsworth / Oct 2016 / -2.8% (-5.6%) What do you want, a telegram from the f**king queen ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darkmarket Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 In light of those figures, this is a new low. Surely the Guardian can tell the difference between the LSE and eMoov in terms of source credibility: Quote Is it a bad idea to buy a property in London if it's not home for life? I would prefer buying to renting but fear a 2007-like crash may wipe out value and make it tough to resell I’m 26, living in London, and on civil service salary of £34,500, and after I’ve completed my graduate scheme, I should be on £50,000-plus in a couple of years. I’m fortunate to have £110,000 in cash – from savings and inheritance – to put towards the purchase of a property. I am young and single and like living in London, it suits my lifestyle now, but not if I decided to start a family and settle down. I was considering buying a flat in London, with the idea that it would be my first home, and I would sell it off by the time I was 32. ... Recent claims – made by Paul Cheshire, professor of economic geography at the London School of Economics – of an impending crash and a 40% fall in property values are “quite frankly outrageously unrealistic” according to Russell Quirk, founder and chief executive of online estate agent, eMoov.co.uk. https://www.theguardian.com/money/2017/aug/07/is-it-a-bad-idea-to-buy-a-property-in-london-if-its-not-home-for-life There is no shortage of bad advice out there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darby Ram Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 22 minutes ago, darkmarket said: In light of those figures, this is a new low. Surely the Guardian can tell the difference between the LSE and eMoov in terms of source credibility: https://www.theguardian.com/money/2017/aug/07/is-it-a-bad-idea-to-buy-a-property-in-london-if-its-not-home-for-life There is no shortage of bad advice out there. Someone who recommends buying from the comments on that article: Quote In the meantime you're saving on rent and getting experience with home ownership, it is really useful as we're on house number 2 and it makes it easier to get things done and have that confidence if you've maintained somewhere before. I think this is the first time that I've seen "experience with home ownership" used as a justification for getting on the ladder before. When the tide starts turning, I guess you need to get creative. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darkmarket Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 1 minute ago, Darby Ram said: I think this is the first time that I've seen "experience with home ownership" used as a justification for getting on the ladder before. When the tide starts turning, I guess you need to get creative. I'm speechless. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
suresh786 Posted August 8, 2017 Share Posted August 8, 2017 17 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said: No, that would be a "crash", you said signs of a crash: City of London / Jul 2016 / -10.2% (-12.2%) Tower Hamlets / Mar 2016 / -4.7% (-4.0%) Haringey / Feb 2017 / -3.7% (-11.1%) Greenwich / Feb 2017 / -3.0% (-12.0%) Hackney / Mar 2016 / -3.0% (-2.6%) Wandsworth / Oct 2016 / -2.8% (-5.6%) What do you want, a telegram from the f**king queen ? Include all boroughs and take one full year then what is price change, increase or decrease? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted August 8, 2017 Share Posted August 8, 2017 1 hour ago, suresh786 said: Include all boroughs and take one full year then what is price change, increase or decrease? That's neither here not there, it's little comfort to anyone that in the city of London in July 2016, they're now looking at at 20% real world loss ( including fees/interest ). Shoulda rented. Would like to b e sitting at their dinner parties of a weekend to hear the house price chatter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B63 Posted August 8, 2017 Share Posted August 8, 2017 http://amp.theage.com.au/business/property/that-whoosh-its-the-great-chinese-property-pullback-20170807-gxrfbc.html "Reflecting tighter regulations, China overseas direct property investment could drop 84 per cent to $US1.7 billion ($2.15 billion) this year and about another 15 per cent to $US1.4 billion in 2018, according to Morgan Stanley." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted August 8, 2017 Share Posted August 8, 2017 44 minutes ago, B63 said: http://amp.theage.com.au/business/property/that-whoosh-its-the-great-chinese-property-pullback-20170807-gxrfbc.html "Reflecting tighter regulations, China overseas direct property investment could drop 84 per cent to $US1.7 billion ($2.15 billion) this year and about another 15 per cent to $US1.4 billion in 2018, according to Morgan Stanley." Wait till the..."locals burn Chinese investors homes to the ground so they can build their own" effect comes into play. ( literally or metaphorically, who knows which ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SamuearlJackson Posted August 8, 2017 Share Posted August 8, 2017 Knight Frank's latest PCL report states that PCL prices are -5.9% year on year and -0.1% in the last month: http://www.knightfrank.co.uk/blog/2017/08/03/prime-central-london-sales-index-july-2017 PCL rents are -3.7% year on year and -0.4% in the last three months: http://www.knightfrank.co.uk/blog/2017/08/03/prime-central-london-lettings-index-july-2017 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
suresh786 Posted August 8, 2017 Share Posted August 8, 2017 1 hour ago, TheCountOfNowhere said: That's neither here not there, it's little comfort to anyone that in the city of London in July 2016, they're now looking at at 20% real world loss ( including fees/interest ). Shoulda rented. Would like to b e sitting at their dinner parties of a weekend to hear the house price chatter. Until I see the drop of at least 5% across all boroughs in full year, each to their own etc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted August 8, 2017 Share Posted August 8, 2017 (edited) 8 minutes ago, SamuearlJackson said: Knight Frank's latest PCL report states that PCL prices are -5.9% year on year and -0.1% in the last month: http://www.knightfrank.co.uk/blog/2017/08/03/prime-central-london-sales-index-july-2017 PCL rents are -3.7% year on year and -0.4% in the last three months: http://www.knightfrank.co.uk/blog/2017/08/03/prime-central-london-lettings-index-july-2017 That's definitely not a sign then.... Edited August 8, 2017 by TheCountOfNowhere Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
suresh786 Posted August 8, 2017 Share Posted August 8, 2017 1 hour ago, TheCountOfNowhere said: That's definitely not a sign then.... For me that will be sign and if that repeats for few years then that will be actual crash Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted August 8, 2017 Share Posted August 8, 2017 15 minutes ago, suresh786 said: For me that will be sign and if that repeats for few years then that will be actual crash I think that's the 2nd year in PCL. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SamuearlJackson Posted August 8, 2017 Share Posted August 8, 2017 It looks like the 12 month change has been negative for a while using the Knight Frank measure (for over a year which suggests price falls for the last two years). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted August 8, 2017 Share Posted August 8, 2017 4 minutes ago, SamuearlJackson said: It looks like the 12 month change has been negative for a while using the Knight Frank measure (for over a year which suggests price falls for the last two years). This thread was started not long before prices in PCL started taking a down turn. Give the negative MSM articles we see daily now there's a good change things are falling apart pretty quickly. I dont know anyone who is buying or thinking of buying now. Everyone post 2007 miracle recover has sold and traded up ( more debt ) and are sitting waiting to make another fortune. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SamuearlJackson Posted August 8, 2017 Share Posted August 8, 2017 Agree with that Count. This is a good map from Knight Frank if anyone missed it earlier in the year: https://kfcontent.blob.core.windows.net/research/734/documents/en/march-2017-4588.pdf Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
suresh786 Posted August 8, 2017 Share Posted August 8, 2017 14 minutes ago, SamuearlJackson said: Agree with that Count. This is a good map from Knight Frank if anyone missed it earlier in the year: https://kfcontent.blob.core.windows.net/research/734/documents/en/march-2017-4588.pdf Thanks. Nice information. May long the down trend continues ameen Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patient London FTB Posted August 8, 2017 Share Posted August 8, 2017 Slowdown in London recruitment according to the FT. "Growth in permanent placements slowed almost to a standstill in London. Recruitment agency billings for temporary staff, in contrast, increased in all regions of the UK." https://www.ft.com/content/9e219894-7b7c-11e7-ab01-a13271d1ee9c Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted August 8, 2017 Share Posted August 8, 2017 26 minutes ago, SamuearlJackson said: Agree with that Count. This is a good map from Knight Frank if anyone missed it earlier in the year: https://kfcontent.blob.core.windows.net/research/734/documents/en/march-2017-4588.pdf Thanks. Someone had to eventually If you look at that chart from the point of view of someone who's bought a house in the last 3 years, would it fill you with fear or joy ? Has CRASH written all over it. The fear will (hopefully) eventually spread.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sancho Panza Posted August 8, 2017 Share Posted August 8, 2017 19 hours ago, Darby Ram said: Someone who recommends buying from the comments on that article: I think this is the first time that I've seen "experience with home ownership" used as a justification for getting on the ladder before. When the tide starts turning, I guess you need to get creative. 19 hours ago, darkmarket said: I'm speechless. x2. Sometimes you catch a falling knife and if you keep your eyes shut,you won't realise you're bleeding for a while. 1 hour ago, TheCountOfNowhere said: I think that's the 2nd year in PCL. Some rare postcodes actually turned late 2014/early 2015 iirc. 56 minutes ago, SamuearlJackson said: Agree with that Count. This is a good map from Knight Frank if anyone missed it earlier in the year: https://kfcontent.blob.core.windows.net/research/734/documents/en/march-2017-4588.pdf Cracking. They appear to be using sold prices for specific postcodes.Unadjusted for volume,season or anything else.What we on here, call reality. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sancho Panza Posted August 8, 2017 Share Posted August 8, 2017 On 08/02/2017 at 10:38 PM, Sancho Panza said: SW north of the river. In order moving away from the centre SW3,SW7,SW5,SW10,SW6 The price action.3/5 moving down is a start I guess. On 10/02/2017 at 0:36 AM, Sancho Panza said: On 10/02/2017 at 4:52 PM, Sancho Panza said: Price charts moving out of central London in order. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/W_postcode_area W2,W9,W10,W11,W8,W12,W14,W6,W3,W4,W5,W13,W7 On 10/02/2017 at 10:53 PM, Sancho Panza said: Prices drawn from price charts on raw sales data. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/W_postcode_area W2,W9,W10,W11,W8,W12,W14,W6,W3,W4,W5,W13,W7 Just going through the charts on West London.Price action on a 12 month MA from peak. Working out from centre. Peak Current %age down W2 April 15 £1.253 mn, Oct 16 £1.220 mn -2.6% W9 Feb 16 £904k , Oct 16 £884k -2.2% W8 Mar 16 £3.024mn Oct 16 £2.651mn -12.3% W11 Oct 16 £1.913 mn peak W10 Mar 15 £898k Oct 16 £838k -6.7% W12 May 16 £723k Oct 16 £705k -2.8% W 14 Mar 15 £1.219 mn Oct 16 £1.145 mn -6% W6 May 15 £945k Oct 16 £864k -8.6% W3 Oct 16 £574k peak W4 Mar 16 £964k Oct 16 £906k -6% W5 Oct 16 £713 peak W13 Apr 16 £653k Oct 16 £630k -3.5% W7 Oct 16 £543k peak On 10/02/2017 at 11:22 PM, Sancho Panza said: W1GLONDONHarley StreetWestminster W1HLONDONMaryleboneWestminster W1KLONDONMayfair (north), Grosvenor SquareWestminster W1ULONDONMaryleboneWestminster W1WLONDONGreat Portland Street, FitzroviaWestminster Prices drawn from price charts on raw sales data. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/W_postcode_area Just going through the charts on West London.Price action on a 12 month MA from peak.Avoiding the postcodes with extremely erratic vol. Peak Current %age down W1G June 16 £2.6mn Oct 16 £2.522mn -3% W1H Dec 15 £1.646mn Oct 16 £1.346mn -18% W1K Aug 14 £4.645mn Oct 16 £4,155mn -8% W1U Apr 16 £1.968mn Oct 16 £1.824mn -7.3% W1W Mar 16 £1.467mn Oct 16 £1.185mn -19% 3 hours ago, suresh786 said: Until I see the drop of at least 5% across all boroughs in full year, each to their own etc. See above. The Apr land reg figures will be due out soon.So time to update my charts. Sections of London have been dropping for some time if you use the raw sales data Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
suresh786 Posted August 8, 2017 Share Posted August 8, 2017 32 minutes ago, Sancho Panza said: See above. The Apr land reg figures will be due out soon.So time to update my charts. Sections of London have been dropping for some time if you use the raw sales data Can you please produce for IG11 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sancho Panza Posted August 8, 2017 Share Posted August 8, 2017 (edited) 33 minutes ago, suresh786 said: Can you please produce for IG11 I'm on the wrong PC,I'll post later. These charts are form the price/volume thread. Edited August 8, 2017 by Sancho Panza Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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