Damik Posted April 29, 2015 Author Share Posted April 29, 2015 (edited) So even the prime areas seem to paint the same picture: a rapid rise in prices until mid-2014 when the London market stalled. However, thus far we have not seen any consistent London price falls in the LR data. The best performing London boroughs are these 2 for now; let's see how they do tomorrow http://landregistry.data.gov.uk/app/hpi/view?compare=1&from_m=3&from_y=2000&loc_0=Hackney&loc_1=Haringey&loc_uri_0=http%3A%2F%2Flandregistry.data.gov.uk%2Fid%2Fregion%2Fhackney&loc_uri_1=http%3A%2F%2Flandregistry.data.gov.uk%2Fid%2Fregion%2Fharingey&m_hpi=1&source=preview_form&to_m=3&to_y=2015 I can see some symmetry/same speed going up and down around the top Edited April 29, 2015 by Damik Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
suntory Posted April 29, 2015 Share Posted April 29, 2015 So even the prime areas seem to paint the same picture: a rapid rise in prices until mid-2014 when the London market stalled. However, thus far we have not seen any consistent London price falls in the LR data. Thanks, very interesting analysis. Looking forward to your update tomorrow and whether there is a significant change that might alter your conclusions. Thanks for the charts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
suntory Posted April 30, 2015 Share Posted April 30, 2015 45 minutes to go. The big question is, by how much did London fall. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Venger Posted April 30, 2015 Share Posted April 30, 2015 45 minutes to go. The big question is, by how much did London fall. Hmm; that's a confident view. Misery misery misery, and utter disappointment; been pummelled by it with house prices. HPI++++ raging, against forum excuses for the very same buyers. I've seen a few houses sell in recent months (London), that may be coming through onto the books, when the asking prices were at new high. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damik Posted April 30, 2015 Author Share Posted April 30, 2015 (edited) Hmm; that's a confident view. Misery misery misery, and utter disappointment; been pummelled by it with house prices. HPI++++ raging, against forum excuses for the very same buyers. I've seen a few houses sell in recent months (London), that may be coming through onto the books, when the asking prices were at new high. The whole LR UK is -0.8% down. I assume that rest of UK is still going up a bit (0.5%). So the -0.8% fall is just London. London is about 30% of the total LR UK number. So potentially London could be this month: -1.5% ??? Edited April 30, 2015 by Damik Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
suntory Posted April 30, 2015 Share Posted April 30, 2015 The big headline figure must be K&C going down, once again, by 1.6% m/m. Y/y we are now at 5.2%. Does that mean that in three months we will be at y/y negative for K&C. Ahahahhhhahahhhaaahhha. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damik Posted April 30, 2015 Author Share Posted April 30, 2015 LR data updated for March Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rantnrave Posted April 30, 2015 Share Posted April 30, 2015 MoM, London appears to be holding up well compared to the rest of the UK regions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damik Posted April 30, 2015 Author Share Posted April 30, 2015 MoM, London appears to be holding up well compared to the rest of the UK regions. Indeed. Hackney 1.6% up , Kensington & Chelsea -1.6% pm down Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damik Posted April 30, 2015 Author Share Posted April 30, 2015 So the only solid performer in London is Haringey .... http://landregistry.data.gov.uk/app/hpi/view?compare=1&from_m=3&from_y=2000&loc_0=Kensington+and+Chelsea&loc_1=Haringey&loc_uri_0=http%3A%2F%2Flandregistry.data.gov.uk%2Fid%2Fregion%2Fkensington-and-chelsea&loc_uri_1=http%3A%2F%2Flandregistry.data.gov.uk%2Fid%2Fregion%2Fharingey&m_hpi=1&source=preview_form&to_m=3&to_y=2015 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damik Posted April 30, 2015 Author Share Posted April 30, 2015 Analyse please: https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/424293/HPIReport20150428.pdf Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Assume The Opposite Posted April 30, 2015 Share Posted April 30, 2015 Maybe the London boom was the "long term economic plan"? Long term economic housing boom? Leaving real estate only in the hands of the few? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damik Posted April 30, 2015 Author Share Posted April 30, 2015 Maybe the London boom was the "long term economic plan"? Long term economic housing boom? Leaving real estate only in the hands of the few? Majority of London zone 1,2,3,4 are flat from August 2014. They are just somehow magically holding the insane 2013 prices ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
suntory Posted April 30, 2015 Share Posted April 30, 2015 Majority of London zone 1,2,3,4 are flat from August 2014. They are just somehow magically holding the insane 2013 prices ... Indeed, it's amazing how prices are on a plateau. Not going up by much, and not going down by much either. I think Freetrader was on to something with his analysis. The big exception is of course prime London. When will prime London drag the entire thing down. I am surprised it hasn't happened already. More sheeple need to be fleeced until then. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Killer Bunny Posted April 30, 2015 Share Posted April 30, 2015 (edited) London sales numbers down 26%!!! Market dead. EAs wanting to be. (Just imagine those month end 'conversations'...) When sales collapse something has to give and it will be prices IMHO. #2008Mark2 will come and they will not be able to slash rates. They WILL QE4EVA but will that be sufficient? I doubt it. #turningjapanese Edited April 30, 2015 by Killer Bunny Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damik Posted April 30, 2015 Author Share Posted April 30, 2015 London sales numbers down 26%!!! Market dead. I missed this one. Do you have a URL? Cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eddie_George Posted April 30, 2015 Share Posted April 30, 2015 #2008Mark2 will come and they will not be able to slash rates. They WILL QE4EVA but will that be sufficient? I doubt it. #turningjapanese Sweden and Denmark have negative IRs. Can we not follow them? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damik Posted April 30, 2015 Author Share Posted April 30, 2015 Sweden and Denmark have negative IRs. Can we not follow them? Not for the consumers. Just banks. But UK banks now know that prices are flat/falling a bit. It should make them nervous and undervalue mortgage property valuations ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Killer Bunny Posted April 30, 2015 Share Posted April 30, 2015 I missed this one. Do you have a URL? Cheers London sales down 26% Page 13 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Killer Bunny Posted April 30, 2015 Share Posted April 30, 2015 Sweden and Denmark have negative IRs. Can we not follow them? We can and we probably will. BRILLIANT!!! Not deflationary at all!!! No no. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damik Posted April 30, 2015 Author Share Posted April 30, 2015 (edited) London sales down 26% Page 13 Thanks. This is a bit encouraging: Edited April 30, 2015 by Damik Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted April 30, 2015 Share Posted April 30, 2015 London sales numbers down 26%!!! Market dead. EAs wanting to be. (Just imagine those month end 'conversations'...) When sales collapse something has to give and it will be prices IMHO. #2008Mark2 will come and they will not be able to slash rates. They WILL QE4EVA but will that be sufficient? I doubt it. #turningjapanese No KB, they just need to raise prices another 20% and flush out those cash rich buyers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meerkat Posted April 30, 2015 Share Posted April 30, 2015 Indeed, it's amazing how prices are on a plateau. Not going up by much, and not going down by much either. I think Freetrader was on to something with his analysis. The big exception is of course prime London. When will prime London drag the entire thing down. I am surprised it hasn't happened already. More sheeple need to be fleeced until then. The longer it drags out, the more sharp the inevitable decline will be... especially given the low volume and slowing momentum... a typical set-up for bear reversal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rantnrave Posted April 30, 2015 Share Posted April 30, 2015 Foxtons clearly aren't troubled by the London data in this press release. Share price currently up 6.5%... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thehowler Posted April 30, 2015 Share Posted April 30, 2015 So... Kensington and Chelsea tanks 1.6% Sales volumes have taken a big hit BUT London is up 0.2% overall. Not seeing that big lurch down in prices and we're more than a third into the year. If the Tories get back in and we lose the faint impetus of mansion tax/rent controls etc I'd say there's a good chance prices will start to pick up again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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