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Ghost Of 1929 Re-Appears - Pay Attention To The Signals

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http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-12-07/ghost-1929-re-appears-pay-attention-signals

They say those who forget the lessons of history are doomed to repeat them.

As a student of market history, I’ve seen that maxim made true time and again. The cycle swings fear back to greed. The overcautious become the overzealous. And at the top, the story is always the same: Too much credit, too much speculation, the suspension of disbelief, and the spread of the idea that this time is different.

It doesn’t matter whether it was the expansion of railroads heading into the crash of 1893 or the excitement over the consolidation of the steel industry in 1901 or the mixing of speculation and banking heading into 1907. Or whether it involves an epic expansion of mortgage credit, IPO activity, or central-bank stimulus. What can’t continue forever ultimately won’t.

20131206_1929.jpg

Still it's not like we have the income inequalities of the depression...

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The scaling has been severely manipulated and neither start at the origin.

This is disappointing, I am really hoping for a monumental crash early next year so I can trade up and get a house that is less cramped for a family of 5. Can someone please confirm that Jan 14 is the top?

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This is disappointing, I am really hoping for a monumental crash early next year so I can trade up and get a house that is less cramped for a family of 5. Can someone please confirm that Jan 14 is the top?

Jan 14th? Isn't that the day that ZH says Japan and China go to war? :rolleyes:

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This is disappointing, I am really hoping for a monumental crash early next year so I can trade up and get a house that is less cramped for a family of 5. Can someone please confirm that Jan 14 is the top?

All I meant is that while an uncanny similarity in the shapes exist, it's a bit of a fiddle to draw the conclusion.

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Last time we had a correction, the top was October 2007, bottom March 2009

It's 6 years later and we have just almost had a possible top.

the correction before that, top was in October 2000, bottom March 2003

7 years between tops.

If there is a recurring patten to these things then IMO it would be risky to return to the market near all time highs for the tiny reward of around 3% to 4% annualized (depending on your luck).

It could be that we just had the top in October 2013 and stocks will continue sliding until March 2015.

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