scottbeard Posted March 23, 2012 Share Posted March 23, 2012 Are we really living longer? Or is it just a statistical trick because childhood death rates have fallen? People really are living longer. Life expectancy at birth is now nearly 80, used to be more like 70. That's in part because of reduced childhood deaths. However, life expectancy at birth is the wrong measure to be looking at for pensions. However, life expectancy at age 65 is now more like 88, used to be more like 75. That's because we're living longer in old age. (As an aside people aren't used to thinking about life expectancy at other ages than birth. They know that life expectancy at birth is 70-80 and then when you ask how long a current 90-year old is expected to live, you get a blank look or a rubbish answer like -10 years.) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PopGun Posted March 23, 2012 Share Posted March 23, 2012 (edited) People really are living longer. Life expectancy at birth is now nearly 80, used to be more like 70. That's in part because of reduced childhood deaths. However, life expectancy at birth is the wrong measure to be looking at for pensions. However, life expectancy at age 65 is now more like 88, used to be more like 75. That's because we're living longer in old age. (As an aside people aren't used to thinking about life expectancy at other ages than birth. They know that life expectancy at birth is 70-80 and then when you ask how long a current 90-year old is expected to live, you get a blank look or a rubbish answer like -10 years.) Life expectancy, like house prices only ever goes up.... The last and greatest ponzi: Lifespan Edited March 23, 2012 by PopGun Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
awaytogo Posted March 23, 2012 Share Posted March 23, 2012 If we did mine them, we might be able to recover quite a lot of gold. Like it Thanks for the correction. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottbeard Posted March 23, 2012 Share Posted March 23, 2012 Life expectancy, like house prices only ever goes up.... The last and greatest ponzi: Lifespan Don't quite understand this post? I'm not saying it will go up for ever, just that it genuinely has gone up in the recent past - it's not a trick of statistics. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Britney's Piers Posted March 23, 2012 Share Posted March 23, 2012 (edited) What happened to the next generation dying before their parents because of smoking / binge drinking / obesity ? Apparently we are living both longer and shorter lives. Edited March 23, 2012 by Britney's Piers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidg Posted March 23, 2012 Share Posted March 23, 2012 I also cannot see many 70 year old scaffolding workers, bricklayers, Road diggers, burger flippers to name a few. My dad has just finished building a house at 77, or is he 78? Ok it is a bungalow but that is a lot of concrete pouring and brick laying. I would agree though that past 75 he should have stopped manual labour of this sort. If you've done physical labour all your life you can be as strong as an ox, not like some pallow skinned wizened armed desk warrior. Personally I think the state pension age should rise faster than is currently envisaged, even if it will be bad for me at the same time you need to allow people some adjustment for planning their retirement. It would be unreasonable to jump from 65 to 70 tomorrow but why not 3 months a year? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Game_Over Posted March 23, 2012 Share Posted March 23, 2012 Increasing life expectancy is another con. The people who are 80 today were born - wait for it - 80 years ago when infant mortality rates were high and people didn't have the money to eat, smoke and drink themselves to death. If you take a look around now and see what percentage of the population are clinically obese and alcoholics it doesn't take a genius to work out that this generation - those aged 30-50 are not going to live to the same age as those who are currently in their 80's. My wife and I are both 50 and have loads of relations and friends who have died in their 30's and 40's This demographic 'timebomb' con is just another wheeze designed to justify mass immigration and slashing pensions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest tbatst2000 Posted March 23, 2012 Share Posted March 23, 2012 I can't see 'If you can't afford a retirement you shouldn't have one' getting the same response. Soylent Green, it's the only answer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
longtomsilver Posted March 23, 2012 Share Posted March 23, 2012 Increasing life expectancy is another con. The people who are 80 today were born - wait for it - 80 years ago when infant mortality rates were high and people didn't have the money to eat, smoke and drink themselves to death. If you take a look around now and see what percentage of the population are clinically obese and alcoholics it doesn't take a genius to work out that this generation - those aged 30-50 are not going to live to the same age as those who are currently in their 80's. My wife and I are both 50 and have loads of relations and friends who have died in their 30's and 40's This demographic 'timebomb' con is just another wheeze designed to justify mass immigration and slashing pensions. Couldn't agree more. My parents and their friends are quite high up in the affluent scale. Not the kind of obscene wealth that can be claimed from today's corporate world at the top but old money, good life no excesses. All of them are in their seventies now and they are dropping like flys. They've had the best food, health care and support money can buy and mother nature is still telling them enoughs enough and their times up. Further down the chain people have been pulled out of abject poverty and that is what had been killing them. The averaging up has come from the bottom and not the top and it is clear to see they are quickly finding there place in the gutter/early grave. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottbeard Posted March 23, 2012 Share Posted March 23, 2012 If you take a look around now and see what percentage of the population are clinically obese and alcoholics it doesn't take a genius to work out that this generation - those aged 30-50 are not going to live to the same age as those who are currently in their 80's. My wife and I are both 50 and have loads of relations and friends who have died in their 30's and 40's This demographic 'timebomb' con is just another wheeze designed to justify mass immigration and slashing pensions. Clearly obesity acts to reduce life expectancy, but against that are massive falls in number of smokers and massive improvements in medical care. Overall I'd expect this generation to live longer. The handful of people who sadly die young stick out in our memories. No doubt you and your wife know many hundreds of people who did NOT die in their 30s/40s. And don't forget of course that today's 80 year olds are just the survivors - many of their generation also died in their 30s/40s long ago. But the 'demographic timebomb' is not just about life expectancy, but also about much lower birthrates. Both contribute towards an aging population. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottbeard Posted March 23, 2012 Share Posted March 23, 2012 All of them are in their seventies now and they are dropping like flys. Even with today's long life expectancies you'd still expect 30% of people who turn 70 to die before they're 80. The difference is, back in the 1960s it was 50%. (Source: English Life Table no.16, http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/taxonomy/index.html?nscl=Interim+Life+Tables compared to A67/70 tables) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Britney's Piers Posted March 23, 2012 Share Posted March 23, 2012 (edited) Couldn't agree more. My parents and their friends are quite high up in the affluent scale. Not the kind of obscene wealth that can be claimed from today's corporate world at the top but old money, good life no excesses. All of them are in their seventies now and they are dropping like flys. They've had the best food, health care and support money can buy and mother nature is still telling them enoughs enough and their times up. Further down the chain people have been pulled out of abject poverty and that is what had been killing them. The averaging up has come from the bottom and not the top and it is clear to see they are quickly finding there place in the gutter/early grave. The length of our days is seventy years--or eighty, if we have the strength Psalm 90:10 Life expectancy, United Kingdom www.google.co.uk/publicdata 80.1 years Edited March 23, 2012 by Britney's Piers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
awaytogo Posted March 24, 2012 Share Posted March 24, 2012 My dad has just finished building a house at 77, or is he 78? Ok it is a bungalow but that is a lot of concrete pouring and brick laying. I would agree though that past 75 he should have stopped manual labour of this sort. If you've done physical labour all your life you can be as strong as an ox, not like some pallow skinned wizened armed desk warrior. Personally I think the state pension age should rise faster than is currently envisaged, even if it will be bad for me at the same time you need to allow people some adjustment for planning their retirement. It would be unreasonable to jump from 65 to 70 tomorrow but why not 3 months a year? Congratulations to your father, is he doing that full time or is it just to build the house. I know people of that age doing similar jobs, mostly part time and through choice, i also know bricklayers in their late 50s who cannot hold a trowel because of problems with their hands after laying 100s of thousands of bricks during their lifetime. Everyone is different and i hope i am one like your father and have health and fitness. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidg Posted March 24, 2012 Share Posted March 24, 2012 Congratulations to your father, is he doing that full time or is it just to build the house. The house is to sell, if he can. I told him not to start on the project, I personally think he's too old now. He also works with a tiler who is in his late 60s. However as a caveat the tiler has had surgery on his arms and this has maybe been aggravated by his job (calcification of his bones). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormymonday_2011 Posted March 24, 2012 Share Posted March 24, 2012 (edited) The length of our days is seventy years--or eighty, if we have the strength Psalm 90:10 Life expectancy, United Kingdom www.google.co.uk/publicdata 80.1 years Ancient Greek playwrights Aeschylus b 525 BC - d 455 BC age 70 Aristophenes b 446 BC - d 386 BC age 60 Euripedes b 480 BC - d 406 BC age 74 Sophocles b 496 BC - d 406 BC age 90 Ancient Greek Philosophers Plato b 424 BC - d 348 BC age 76 Socrates b 469 BC - d 399 BC age 70 (executed by people of Athens) Aristotle b 384 BC - d 322 BC age 62 Not a bad life expectancy for this group.It seems that males from this time who avoided death as chidren and women who avoided both death when young and in child birth went onto make fairly old bones. The only other factors likely to put them in an early grave were war and pandemic such as struck Athens in 430 BC. In fact many of the main historical characters from this era lived amazingly similar length lives to Europeans in the latter half of the 20th century. They had much better life expectancy than Britons caught up in the early stages of the industrial revolution in the 19th century who went to their graves earlier than any other group in European history apart from those caught up in the Black Death. Average life expectancy in the UK has increased about 9-10 years since 1960 which is about a 2 years per decade. The rate has been pretty constant throughout the period and has not suddenly started to accelerate recently whatever polticians may want you to think so any rise in pension liabilities are hardly a surprise http://www.google.co.uk/publicdata/explore?ds=d5bncppjof8f9_&met_y=sp_dyn_le00_in&idim=country:GBR&dl=en&hl=en&q=life+expectancy+uk Edited March 24, 2012 by stormymonday_2011 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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