azogar Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 19 hours ago, warpig said: So in your opinion where will USDX go from here? down Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azogar Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 19 hours ago, Noallegiance said: Why is it that people are calling out Trump on 'facts' when we've had 30+ years of lie upon lie from the usual suspects and 'facts' hardly being mentioned at all? Some people really are mind-wiped. I'm not 100% supporting a Trump presidency, but as yet, we don't know anything. So far he's guilty until proven innocent. Just wait until his first term is done. Then we can sit in our armchairs and lob criticism about like we're covered in blood and sweat. Gold may go up or down. The $ may go up or down. It may rain on at least one and definitely less than 366 days this year. did i say that past administrations hadn't lied? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiggerUK Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 24 minutes ago, p.p. said: down "down" can be taken both ways. Are you saying it will cost more to buy $USD, or less..._ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azogar Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 40 minutes ago, DiggerUK said: "down" can be taken both ways. Are you saying it will cost more to buy $USD, or less..._ i am saying down in relation to the DXY chart i originally replied to... www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/166794-gold-strategy-in-the-current-economy/&do=findComment&comment=1103179102 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiggerUK Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 11 minutes ago, p.p. said: i am saying down in relation to the DXY chart i originally replied to......... Yes, I accept that, and it is a very pretty chart. But will buying $USD cost us more, or less. I'm unsure what you are saying. It will have a direct impact on what price we buy and sell our gold in the UK..._ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warpig Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 The market disagrees with you, the 30 year bond bubble has burst. 1 hour ago, p.p. said: down Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azogar Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 8 minutes ago, warpig said: The market disagrees with you, the 30 year bond bubble has burst. cool, I can live with that since i stated my opinion as of this week.... Trump administration will bring the difference - time for change Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azogar Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 Incidentally here is a 20 year DXY chart for perspective Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warpig Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 Just for clarity, when you say USDX is going down, do you mean as of today the primary trend for USDX is now down? i.e. it will break below 100 in the next 2 weeks or so and keep going down? 13 minutes ago, p.p. said: Incidentally here is a 20 year DXY chart for perspective Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azogar Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 7 minutes ago, warpig said: Just for clarity, when you say USDX is going down, do you mean as of today the primary trend for USDX is now down? i.e. it will break below 100 in the next 2 weeks or so and keep going down? I think it will break the general trend upwards since 2012.... downwards. For the sake of clarity, I think it will be a lot nearer 90 than 100 come the end of the year Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warpig Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 OK thanks, I've taken the opposing view. My bet is > 110 in the summer and `maybe` up near 120 by the end of the year. I could of course be wrong and it could be much higher much sooner. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Errol Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 Hmmm ... Switzerland's Gold Exports To China Surge To 158 Tonnes In December Switzerland's gold bullion exports to China saw a huge jump in December, climbing to 158 tons versus a much lower 30.6 tons in November - a jump of 416%. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-26/switzerlands-gold-exports-china-surge-158-tons-december Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azogar Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 yeah - early days i know https://twitter.com/JF991/status/826412600606994432/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc^tfw Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warpig Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 (edited) If you think USDX is going down in the medium to long term, then what you're really saying is the the Euro (57.6% USDX weight) is going up and whilst it will have short term upward movements, I still believe the overall trend is down. Over the course of 2017 we have the following 6 European Elections: March - Holland April - France May - Serbia September - Germany + Norway October - Czech Republic Most of those countries have a strong anti-EU contingent and there's every suspicion Marine Le Pen will trigger a FREXIT, which for a founding member of the EU is HUGE. If France activate Article 50, then there's every chance so will Germany later in the year, the EU will be untenable. Whilst the following chart looks like the Euro has put in a bottom, my contention is new lows are just about to begin. It might take 3-9 months to happen, but I believe it will happen. http://schrts.co/nxDnKV When the Euro (XEU) fails, USDX will be the benefactor by a mile. When contagion is rife, USDX will be the go-to-currency for settlement just as it was in 2008. Whether we think the USD deserves the reserve currency moniker is irrelevant. Passing the reserve currency baton to the SDR or China takes time, it won't happen in the dead of night or behind closed doors. I've read 2032 looks like a likely time frame. In my opinion - whilst USDX could be a head-fake after it broke out late last year, it's unlikely and if it is, it's only a matter of time until it marches on to 120+ regardless. A rising dollar is only a headwind to gold, both can rise at the same time "if" the markets smell fear. At the moment the $VIX is still very low, it won't stay that way for long. $VIX 1 hour ago, p.p. said: yeah - early days i know https://twitter.com/JF991/status/826412600606994432/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc^tfw Edited January 31, 2017 by warpig Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warpig Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 Another quality article by Rambus Quote In this Weekend Report I’m going to show you some updated charts on the US dollar which has been in a bull market since the low in 2011. It’s hard for a lot of investors to admit, but until the charts change the bull market continues. A bull market is characterized by a series of consolidation patterns forming one top of the next, until the last pattern is a reversal pattern which reverses the bull trend. The old expression, the trend is your friend, also applies to the US dollar as well. Until the US dollar negates the series of higher highs and higher lows on an intermediate term basis, we have to assume the bull market is in tact. Quote The bottom line is, how the US dollar trades will have a direct impact on currencies and the PM complex. They can move together for short periods of time, but in the long run they tend to move inversely to each other. The US dollar is doing a critical backtest that is going to give us some important clues by how it interacts with the top rail of its nearly 2 year trading range. If the US dollar fails to follow through to the upside then the PM complex will enjoy another very strong bull market. Right now the US dollar is at an inflection point in regards to the big picture, which will come to an end at some point. All the best…Rambus https://rambus1.com/2017/01/29/weekend-report-125 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warpig Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 Errol - Can you post something positive about gold please? I wouldn't want to bring this thread into disrepute... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Errol Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 This week is a US jobs report week (Friday) so expect volatility. Chinese market is also closed for New Year's holiday, so possibly a good time to smack gold down. With Trump in office we should expect the unexpected. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warpig Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 Thanks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azogar Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 Ok - so i wasn't going to post this... a bit too bold for my liking and didn't want a tit for tat, vis-à-vis USDX..... but.... just look at the yen chart.... http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1485877416.php Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sPinwheel Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 On 27/01/2017 at 11:59 AM, Errol said: Hmmm ... Switzerland's Gold Exports To China Surge To 158 Tonnes In December Switzerland's gold bullion exports to China saw a huge jump in December, climbing to 158 tons versus a much lower 30.6 tons in November - a jump of 416%. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-26/switzerlands-gold-exports-china-surge-158-tons-december What's this for to do with gold trading strategy. Should I sell or buy? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azogar Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 The writings on the wall... http://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/The-Trump-effect/Trump-accuses-Japan-China-of-currency-devaluation U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday lambasted Japan and China for devaluing their currencies, a clear signal of his belief that the two countries are currency manipulators. "You look at what China's doing, you look at what Japan has done over the years. They play the money market, they play the devaluation market and we sit there like a bunch of dummies," he said in a meeting with pharmaceutical company executives. The remarks prompted the yen to jump to an about two-month high of 112.08 to the U.S. dollar. The yen also strengthened on a news report that Trump's trade adviser slammed Germany for using a "grossly undervalued" euro to gain an unfair advantage over the United States and the rest of the European Union. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doahh Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 1 minute ago, p.p. said: The writings on the wall... http://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/The-Trump-effect/Trump-accuses-Japan-China-of-currency-devaluation U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday lambasted Japan and China for devaluing their currencies, a clear signal of his belief that the two countries are currency manipulators. "You look at what China's doing, you look at what Japan has done over the years. They play the money market, they play the devaluation market and we sit there like a bunch of dummies," he said in a meeting with pharmaceutical company executives. The remarks prompted the yen to jump to an about two-month high of 112.08 to the U.S. dollar. The yen also strengthened on a news report that Trump's trade adviser slammed Germany for using a "grossly undervalued" euro to gain an unfair advantage over the United States and the rest of the European Union. Says the leader of the country that holds the worlds strongest (and at one time only) reserve currency while trying not to snort his coffeee out of his nose from laughing to hard. Making friends where ever he goes! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warpig Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 OK so he's saying the Yen carry trade will reverse because Trump signalled the dollar is too strong and because inflation is going to hit "in a big way." Firstly that chart only proves the Yen went down whilst the dollar went up, it doesn't indicate how much of the dollar's rise is a result of the Yen carry trade. As the Yen is only weighted 13.6% in the USDX index, I calculate the Yen moved USD by 18% "at best," so being a Dollar bull doesn't make me a Yen bear. That chart would make a lot more sense if the upper trend line was parallel to the lower trend line, but there's no reason to suggest the dollar isn't going higher and the Yen isn't going lower, both are committed to the current trend. The FED signalled rates will rise in 2017 and they will. With each rise the currency gains in strength, so as the dollar rises, inflation will fall. He's a goldbug looking to justify higher gold prices in any way he can. XJY v USD 42 minutes ago, p.p. said: Ok - so i wasn't going to post this... a bit too bold for my liking and didn't want a tit for tat, vis-à-vis USDX..... but.... just look at the yen chart.... http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1485877416.php Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Errol Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 London Gold Bullion Banks To “Open Vaults” In Transparency Push? London's gold bullion market, which is centuries old, is said to be seeking transparency with plans to reveal how much gold bullion is held in vaults in and around London city according to gold bullion banks. These include gold bullion bars held and controlled by the Bank of England, as reported by Henry Sanderson in the Financial Times. The move is being led by the London Bullion Market Association and it is said that it will provide data for the first time on how much gold is traded in the London gold bullion market in the Square Mile. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-02-06/london-gold-bullion-banks-“open-vaults”-transparency-push Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Errol Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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