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Killer Bunny

Scottish House Prices In The Media

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Preamble:

What happens if, or when, house prices stop rising: properties don't sell and first time buyers can't afford the deposit to get started. And how will a stalled market affect a generation of people who've grown up assuming they'll always have money in their house to fall back on.

Main introduction:

If you're buying or selling a house, you don't need to be told the market is unrecognisable from only a few years ago. Prices are flat; the number of houses changing hands has plummeted, and mortgage companies want much larger deposits before they part with their cash. A new report by Surveyors claims things will get better over the next few months, but then optimism is hardwired into anyone in the housing trade.

What will it be like in a world where none of the assumptions we've had about housing hold true anymore.

Video report follows, with a studio discussion involving JD.

Note to JD. There's no need to fight the vested interest anymore. Calmly make it clear that current sellers will have to drop their current price expectations as a consequence of your main argument - and will have to do so for many years. A point to reinforce (which can be carried forward from this programme) is that people will not be able to rely on their houses to meet their lifestyle expectations in the future.

Edited by Anaemic Gremlin

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As discussed in the programme, lending is crucial to the UK housing market. Prices were driven up by seven years (2000 - 2007) of extremely loose credit. As a counter-balancing of the long term cycle in lending, volumes of lending into the UK housing market will be much tighter (of necessity) and will not be able to support prices. As a consequence, cash will be discouraged to invest in an asset class which has had it's day - removing the only other prop to prices.

Edited by Anaemic Gremlin

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Yes I am never pleased Killer Bunny :D

We need to start seeing this chat on the mainstream news. Not a lot to ask really after 10+ years of the opposite. Still a great start and brilliant to hear the truth on the BBC.

Was this just Scotland though ? Thread about it on Wales sub forum too ? Was this Newsnight full stop ?! Confused. :blink:

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Gordon Bruar was brilliant. First time I've heard a journalist calling all the VI bull s*** and saying the reason house volumes have collapsed is down to house prices being too high, delusional sellers and interference in the market .

More please.

:D

Edited by siskin

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This was a very nice piece to see but I don't at all buy the presenter's view that because places aren't selling, it's not a proper market. That just doesn't make sense. It is a proper market in the sense that would-be buyers and would-be sellers are making decisions about what they're willing to buy for/sell for. Those decisions just disagree, and hence there are few sales. Most people don't own ferraris, because the price that people are willing to pay and the price the company is willing to sell don't match. But that hardly means there isn't a real market in ferraris.

EC.

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Gordon Bruar was brilliant. First time I've heard a journalist calling all the VI bull s*** and saying the reason house volumes have collapsed is down to house prices being too high, delusional sellers and interference in the market .

More please.

:D

Anybody know his property situation? Has he just offloaded something? He was positively relishing putting over the truth on that clip. I think he must post on here?

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Gordon Bruar was brilliant. First time I've heard a journalist calling all the VI bull s*** and saying the reason house volumes have collapsed is down to house prices being too high, delusional sellers and interference in the market .

More please.

:D

I agree GB (unfortunate initials) is the only journalist I have heard to suggest that "ehem....ugh.... is it just possible that house prices are just to high?? Or am I missing something?"

Numpty in suit "don't call me a real estate agent I am a solicitor I'll have you know".

You sell houses pea brain, or at least you used to, that makes you a slimey @rsed real estate agent irrespective of your qualifications.

Unfortunately Jonathan Davis always loses his rag at the end. Facts not fury JD ;)

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This was a very nice piece to see but I don't at all buy the presenter's view that because places aren't selling, it's not a proper market. That just doesn't make sense. It is a proper market in the sense that would-be buyers and would-be sellers are making decisions about what they're willing to buy for/sell for. Those decisions just disagree, and hence there are few sales. Most people don't own ferraris, because the price that people are willing to pay and the price the company is willing to sell don't match. But that hardly means there isn't a real market in ferraris.

EC.

"It is a proper market in the sense that would-be buyers and would-be sellers are making decisions about what they're willing to buy for/sell for"

They are not making the decisions anymore, the 'market' dictates the decision. I want a Ferrari but I cannot get credit to buy said Ferrari. I want a house but I cannot get credit to buy said house. You can't make desisions when you are dictated to.

Roll on Interest rate hike please....next month I reckon or maybe April once the MPC see the VAT hike influence. A simple 0.25% increase will send sentiment spiralling down. Jubbly.

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Anybody know his property situation? Has he just offloaded something? He was positively relishing putting over the truth on that clip. I think he must post on here?

dances, set up a GB fan club....I'll be you first member :)

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They are not making the decisions anymore, the 'market' dictates the decision. I want a Ferrari but I cannot get credit to buy said Ferrari. I want a house but I cannot get credit to buy said house. You can't make desisions when you are dictated to.

I don't really see the point. How are the would-be-buyers/would-be-sellers being dictated to? The would-be-buyers are being dictated to by the fact that they can't get enough credit? How's that different from the fact that I can't afford a ferrari?

No one is forcing buyers not to pay the inflated prices people are still asking. Banks are telling people they won't lend them enough money to pay those prices, but that hardly means the banks are forcing anything. No bank will lend me the money to, say, buy a share (which costs $100,000) in Berkshire Hathaway, but there is still a proper market for those.

For what it's worth, I don't think banks are being particularly tight with credit anyway. For ages and ages a 25% deposit was standard, wasn't it? I know someone who was just offered a £185,000 or £195,000 (I can't remember which) mortgage with just 15%, which hardly seems tightfisted. Moreover, wouldn't banks be insane to lend money with less than 15% down, given the HPC so many are predicting?

EC.

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That video was the first time I can remember where the VI got properly interviewed with some searching questions from the host. Jonathan was a good bit less unlikeable than he often is.

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  • 312 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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