Warning Signs Suggest Market Headed For Another Collapse

[The Masked Tulip]

I found this is very interesting and informative article about where we may well be currently.

I have been trying to find a good overview and this kind of does it for me. In particular the info on the amount of volume being traded in the markets and what it might mean.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/217966-warning-signs-suggest-market-headed-for-another-collapse

[AvidFan]

I found this is very interesting and informative article about where we may well be currently.

I have been trying to find a good overview and this kind of does it for me. In particular the info on the amount of volume being traded in the markets and what it might mean.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/217966-warning-signs-suggest-market-headed-for-another-collapse

Well done MT. Not enough gloom on this forum of late.

[The Masked Tulip]

Well done MT. Not enough gloom on this forum of late.

I try my best. Must remember to take the happy pills.

[fluffy666]

Well done MT. Not enough gloom on this forum of late.

Well, since most neural net automated trading programs simply monitor this forum at the ultimate contrarian indicator, the moment that the last 'Black XXXDay' or 'Imminent Collapse' thread drops off the first page, all of the World's stock, commodity and currency markets will collapse simultaneously.. We have responsibilities..

[AvidFan]

Well, since most neural net automated trading programs simply monitor this forum at the ultimate contrarian indicator, the moment that the last 'Black XXXDay' or 'Imminent Collapse' thread drops off the first page, all of the World's stock, commodity and currency markets will collapse simultaneously.. We have responsibilities..

I didn't know that. Should we... shut up?

[billybong]

From those charts it looks as if the head and shoulders he's referring to almost completed in end June/early July (with a short about 1 month long right shoulder like in 2007 leading to the 2008 collapse ) but then the downward move suddenly reversed and headed up again so it's anyones guess what might happen now but from the charts the time scale for a collapse (if it happens) looks to be anything from the next few days maybe through to as far away as say November.

His comments on continued low volume rises and heavy volume falls must be very worrying for bulls/neutrals but they've seemingly got away with it for many months on end now.

So a real possibility of a collapse that would last through most of 2011 and then start to pick up in time to be about peaking (or at least mini peaking) at end 2012 the next US election.

Edited August 4, 2010 by billybong

[eric pebble]

Here's another one:

"Reality check for the west. A mega crash looms but this time the policymakers’ cupboard is bare.

The “super bubble” inflated by decades of profligacy, over-leverage and delusional macroeconomic thinking by governments in the developed world and by an excess of irresponsible “no questions asked” lending by creditor nations, including China, looks like it is bursting.

It won’t be long before the emerging market lenders decide the time has come to call in their loans — or at least stop buying any more of our bonds. This will follow the realisation that, contrary to the misleading ‘AAA’ credit ratings doled out by the likes of Standard & Poor’s, there’s a rising chance that near-bankrupt western governments are going to default.

.../

The wall of money that’s been propping up asset prices and government spending in the west will tumble and fall. The unfolding Greek/PIIGS/EU sovereign debt crisis is the first intimation of the coming market crash that is, unfortunately, likely to make the dotcom burst of March 2000 and the banking crash of October 2008 look like a teddy bears’ picnic."

http://www.ianfraser.org/the-crashes-2000-and-2008-are-like-a-teddy-bears-picnic-compared-to-what-now-awaits-us/

[eric pebble]

More:

In a Reuters piece headlined “Markets Could Be Derailed Again” the veteran hedge fund manager and market speculator George Soros warned that the financial world is on the wrong track and hurtling towards an even bigger boom and bust than in the credit crisis.

[ http://blogs.reuters.com/fundshub/2010/04/14/markets-could-be-derailed-again-warns-soros/ ]

One of the causes of this coming catastrophe was the flawed policy response from economic illiterates such as former UK prime minister Gordon Brown to a credit crisis that was largely of their own making.

http://www.ianfraser.org/the-crashes-2000-and-2008-are-like-a-teddy-bears-picnic-compared-to-what-now-awaits-us/

Edited August 4, 2010 by eric pebble

[fluffy666]

I didn't know that. Should we... shut up?

This is the internet. No one shuts up..

[Alan B'Stard MP]

http://seekingalpha.com/article/217966-warning-signs-suggest-market-headed-for-another-collapse

Do people actually believe these old wives tales?

Of course, stupid me, they do - and that's why they happen.

Self-fulfilling prophecies - 1 though 10.

[Georgia O'Keeffe]

Do people actually believe these old wives tales?

Of course, stupid me, they do - and that's why they happen.

Self-fulfilling prophecies - 1 though 10.

It can still be avoided if we take off and nuke the entire planet from orbit. It's the only way to be sure

[Alan B'Stard MP]

It can still be avoided if we take off and nuke the entire planet from orbit. It's the only way to be sure

Go out there with those things running around, you can count me out!

[billybong]

It won’t be long before the emerging market lenders decide the time has come to call in their loans — or at least stop buying any more of our bonds.

"It won't be long" now. It sounds a bit like an inverted jam tomorrow so beloved of politicians and employers and so on.

[Ah-so]

From those charts it looks as if the head and shoulders he's referring to almost completed in end June/early July (with a short about 1 month long right shoulder like in 2007 leading to the 2008 collapse ) but then the downward move suddenly reversed and headed up again so it's anyones guess what might happen now but from the charts the time scale for a collapse (if it happens) looks to be anything from the next few days maybe through to as far away as say November.

His comments on continued low volume rises and heavy volume falls must be very worrying for bulls/neutrals but they've seemingly got away with it for many months on end now.

So a real possibility of a collapse that would last through most of 2011 and then start to pick up in time to be about peaking (or at least mini peaking) at end 2012 the next US election.

Or maybe charts are about as much use as the tea leaves. Head and shoulders reveal themselves retrospectively to believers, which seems to make them pretty useless as divining tools.

[fluffy666]

It can still be avoided if we take off and nuke the entire planet from orbit. It's the only way to be sure

Just make sure you nuke more houses than people - that way house prices will stay high.

[Killer Bunny]

I found this is very interesting and informative article about where we may well be currently.

I have been trying to find a good overview and this kind of does it for me. In particular the info on the amount of volume being traded in the markets and what it might mean.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/217966-warning-signs-suggest-market-headed-for-another-collapse

Good article and he is quite right. I would be very very surprised to see S&P rise above 1130/50 and stay there for more than a week. 1220, the April high, is a mammoth peak compared to where we are, technically. 900 by September/October heading retest of March 09 lows.

[billybong]

Or maybe charts are about as much use as the tea leaves. Head and shoulders reveal themselves retrospectively to believers, which seems to make them pretty useless as divining tools.

Indeed maybe but it'also a question of pattern probabilities as the writer in the article points out about the probability of that pattern completing. He says it's not inevitable although I think it's fair to say he thinks it's on the cards. There's a fair bit of self reinforcement about it as well as apparently large numbers of those participating in the market believe in their use and act on them accordingly probably including the Plunge Protection Team (PPT) - if there is such a thing.

Yes they do also reveal themselves after the event by definition but then if every pattern had an absolutely inevitable conclusion then next year we'll all be millionnaires or not as nearly everyone would do the same thing. You would have to be very quick as the move would be very sudden - which it often is.

Edited August 4, 2010 by billybong

[Ah-so]

Indeed maybe but it'also a question of pattern probabilities as the writer in the article points out about the probability of that pattern completing. He says it's not inevitable although I think it's fair to say he thinks it's on the cards. There's a fair bit of self reinforcement about it as well as apparently large numbers of those participating in the market believe in their use and act on them accordingly probably including the Plunge Protection Team (PPT) - if there is such a thing.

Yes they do also reveal themselves after the event by definition but then if every pattern had an absolutely inevitable conclusion then next year we'll all be millionnaires or not as nearly everyone would do the same thing. You would have to be very quick as the move would be very sudden - which it often is.

I think it is on the cards due to the economic situation we are in. We had a partial melt-down and then avoided a full-scale one by borrowing a load of money and spending it like there was no tomorrow. The press has been discussing the double-dip recession for months. In all probability the economy will go south and take the markets with it. Given all that, no doubt the charts will give the same information to someone knowing this.

Graphs may have some self-reinforcing effects, especially around trend and resistance lines and perhaps even stochastic indicators, but are ultimately pseudo-analysis; the financial equivalent of homeopathy.

[lets get it right]

One of the causes of this coming catastrophe was the flawed policy response from economic illiterates such as former UK prime minister Gordon Brown to a credit crisis that was largely of their own making.

http://www.ianfraser...-now-awaits-us/

Sorry, I was surprised that phrase wasn't big and red.

I'd love to see Brown subject himself to an interview with Ian Fraser. He'd be ripped limb from limb - metaphorically speaking.

[MongerOfDoom]

I found this is very interesting and informative article about where we may well be currently.

Couldn't we have a warning that it is chartist rubbish? I want 10 minutes of my life back.

It is well known that divining things from stock charts does not work. It would be a perpetual source of free money if it did.

[Guest absolutezero]

From those charts it looks as if the head and shoulders he's referring to almost completed in end June/early July (with a short about 1 month long right shoulder like in 2007 leading to the 2008 collapse ) but then the downward move suddenly reversed and headed up again so it's anyones guess what might happen now but from the charts the time scale for a collapse (if it happens) looks to be anything from the next few days maybe through to as far away as say November.

His comments on continued low volume rises and heavy volume falls must be very worrying for bulls/neutrals but they've seemingly got away with it for many months on end now.

So a real possibility of a collapse that would last through most of 2011 and then start to pick up in time to be about peaking (or at least mini peaking) at end 2012 the next US election.

If it's chartism it can safely be ignored.

[Guest absolutezero]

I stopped reading that site because whenever I looked at the author's photo I couldn't take them seriously. I know it's prejudice but I'm only a human. So many of these guys write stuff 'to be noticed' it's often hard to sort the wheat from the chaff. In fact I've found very little wheat out there and it always has a bit of chaff mixed in.

What exactly is it about him that makes you think he's "chaff"?

[Guest absolutezero]

I'm not referring to the colour of his skin if that is what you interpret knowing where you might be coming from. In fact I couldn't say what race he was - could just be a tan.

No - I'm referring to the dress sense which seems to scream to be noticed. Spends a little too much time on his appearance. The standy-up haircut, goatee and black shirt/white tie specifically I suppose. Possibly too young (hasn't been around the block enough) - I'm trying to interpret my own thought process here, right or wrong. Looks like a building society manager in white sports socks who looks like he's about to missell me a financial product for commission.

No. I wasn't aiming at *that*.

It's the beard that does me.

Never trust a man with a beard.

[wonderpup]

No. I wasn't aiming at *that*.

It's the beard that does me.

Never trust a man with a beard.

So- Santa never did bring those roller skates then?

[Flatdog]

Here's another one:

"Reality check for the west. A mega crash looms but this time the policymakers’ cupboard is bare.

The “super bubble” inflated by decades of profligacy, over-leverage and delusional macroeconomic thinking by governments in the developed world and by an excess of irresponsible “no questions asked” lending by creditor nations, including China, looks like it is bursting.

It won’t be long before the emerging market lenders decide the time has come to call in their loans — or at least stop buying any more of our bonds. This will follow the realisation that, contrary to the misleading ‘AAA’ credit ratings doled out by the likes of Standard & Poor’s, there’s a rising chance that near-bankrupt western governments are going to default.

.../

The wall of money that’s been propping up asset prices and government spending in the west will tumble and fall. The unfolding Greek/PIIGS/EU sovereign debt crisis is the first intimation of the coming market crash that is, unfortunately, likely to make the dotcom burst of March 2000 and the banking crash of October 2008 look like a teddy bears’ picnic."

http://www.ianfraser.org/the-crashes-2000-and-2008-are-like-a-teddy-bears-picnic-compared-to-what-now-awaits-us/

Bless you Mr Pebble